Post Xbox One Two Scorpio, what should Sony do next? *spawn* (oh, and Nintendo?)

Im actually quite intrigued at how you and Rangers will try to spin the 499+ Scorpio in the future

 

I will be intrigued on how you spin a $499 and under Scorpio in the future.

 

Im not emotionally invested in Scorpios success or failure. So i wouldnt need to spin anything, i would praise MS for being consumer friendly

Me assuming Scorpio will be expensive is based on logic, not fanboy pipe dreams

 

There is talk that a PS4 slim will be released at the same time as the Neo, later this year, I doubt it though, but would'nt be surprised if we see it next year. Well seeing as the Xbox One minus kinect cost more to build compared to the PS4 at release, add into the mix the revised Xbox One S includes a much more expensive 4K BR drive, and a redesigned controller that will no doubt increase costs, I am pretty certain that Sony's BOM for the current entry level PS4 is significantly lower than the new Xbox One S. If Sony wanted to or needed to the could probably come in cheaper if they want. But over and above that, I personally think that Microsoft will lose money on Xbox One S sales, especially the entry $299 model. See below for more info.

Of course we will see a huge difference between a 1.8tflop PS4 compared to a 6tflop Scorpio, but what about between a 4.2tflop Neo compared to a 6tflop Scorpio....on paper it seems to be the same percentage increase between a One/PS4 and a Neo/Scorpio at roughly 40% increase.

As I mentioned above, we don't know the BOM costs for the Xbox One Slim, but I would seriously doubt they can make the 500GB Slim for less than $299. UHD Bluray, HDR and new controllers are not low cost features. You will find that UHD Bluray drives are up to 4 times the cost of standard BR drives and the new controller will no doubt cost quite a bit more than the basic controller that shipped with the original Xbox One. Yes going from 500GB > 1TB > 2TB isn't as much as a $100 increase, but you will find that the top model....that suspiciously happens to be the only model being released in August is the top 2TB $399 model. Very possibly to gauge sales and if they need the boost then they will take the hit and release the 500GB $299 version ASAP, probably October/November in time for Xmas.

Scorpio may very well release in the $400-$500 bracket, although personally, going by reports (12GB+ RAM, 6tflops, zen etc), then it will more than likely be $499 minimum with MS taking a hit on costs to get it out there.

Also, the Xbox One S will only be $200 if Microsoft is desperate for sales as there is no way Microsoft will knock another $100 off the RRP in 15 months time when it looks like they are losing money on the $299 model. I fully expect the RRP to go down to $249 next year, maybe around E3 but not lower.

mod: No need to bold replies

 

And what's the logic ?

The xbox one had a die 363mm2 for its APU that cost $100 . It was the single most expensive part of the system at 1/5th the original $500 launch price.

The Polaris is at 232mm2 with 5.8tflop of performance. That is very close to the 6tflop promise. That leaves you with a 130mm2 for the cpu portion.

IvyBridge on 22nm 4c GT2 is 160mm2
Haswell on 22nm 4c GT2 is 177mm2
Skylake on 14nm 4c GT2 is 122mm2

Remember those all have GPUs on them.

Zen should come in smaller than Skylake if its just cpu cores.

 

So where does Neo fit in? the Scorpio will be ~50% more powerful on todays rumours. You keep talking about restrictions but doesn't Scorpio have the same 'issue'? And even then where is your evidence that people migrate due to power (other than a small minority).

Talk about putting words in my mouth, of course the extra HDD space doesn't cost that much THAT was my point. This 'premium' machine will likely have a 2TB option as a base - but let's spin it in MS favour and they launch with 1TB - so today that's $350, you think just over a year later they will release a machine 4x the power for ~$100 more and there won't be an issue with their current fanbase who just spent that $350? I guess we will find out who really understands when prices are revealed.

So now you're moving the goal-posts. I've forever said $500 to which you've countered 'it'll be as close to $400 as possible and that MS were ripped up for $500 so why would they do that again' - clearly you're expecting no higher than $450 but maybe common sense is finally kicking in and you realise that they can't do it.

 

I do wonder if some of this confusion over 'Sony having 2 options' is simply 2 machines - one slim and one Neo.

Yeah, way to upset your fanbase by dropping $100 around 1 year after launch.

 

Yes maybe this is the confusion. It's pretty obvious that seeing the Neo is supposedly using Polaris 10, it will have to lower the clock to reduce energy as well as heat thus reducing the tflops to 4.2tf rather than the top level 5.8tf achieveable with an overclocked Polaris 10.

So I seriously doubt Sony would want (at this moment in time) the hassle of working with the higher clock, heat, power usage to get the 5.8tf working with their design when they can comfortably sit with 4.2tf....who knows though, maybe they can, but I don't think they should wait toi do it. Don't miss out on Xmas.

 

What don't you read Mr Fox's posts , UHD bluray drives cost no more than regular ones , they've been avalible for years. So which is it.

Why do you believe the redesigned controller adds any strain to the pricing of the controllers? Yes it now has Bluetooth. But the ps4 controller has a touch pad. They also by allowing you to pick controllers and add an engraving to it , increase price by $20 + dollars.

Also if the xbox one does have a 14nm APU there is no way the current PS4 is lower in price than the xboxos. The xbox one apu has esram which will result in a smaller die on 14nm than the ps4 apu. Plus they continue to reap the lower cost benfit of the DDR ram over GDR . So they will still keep the pricing advantage imo.

Did we not see a difference between the one and ps4 ?

But they are my friend.

Mr Fox will tell you how cheap a UHD drive is , newer drives just need a flash ! They've been making them for years . Why would HDR cost anything ? Its a benfit they got from switching to the newer HDMI standards.

The new controller only adds blue tooth. Bluetooth controllers depending on which one can cost under $1 bought in bulk . They also reduced the size of the controller which will reduce costs and as I said above they also found ways of charing $20+ more for the controller also.

Lets not forget that the system is now 40% smaller with an internal drive.That saves plastic costs , manufacturing costs , shipping costs , packing costs and so on.

The slim line introduces savings all over the map.

Yes they only have the $400 2TB systems coming out first. This is a smart play as there will be demand for the newer smaller system and so they can get another $100 out of customers before introducing the cheaper priced consoles. This doesn't reflect the cost to ms of the systems.

I disagree. I fully believe the xbox one 3 is their play to get down to the $200 bracket and the system was designed with that in mind. If the chip isn't 14nm yet then the die shrink wil lget them there. If it is 14nm then improvements in yields will get them there over the next year as 14nm matures

 

Im not sure where to even begin, so many incorrect assumptions. Firstly Xbox One APU cost $110, it was PS4 APU that cost $100

Polaris is rated for 150 watts, thats more than what the PS4 draws in total, how are you expecting to fit that in a console without a serious underclock? Wich means Polaris in a console would be around 4 TF

So how does MS hit 6 TF? By using a much bigger GPU, probably Vega wich should be around 300mm2 and pushing 7-8 TF. Vega is not coming until Q 2017 and its going to cost much more than $200. Its also using the same node so you cant expect it to be much more powerful than Polaris but also be only around 200mm2

As for Zen, you are comparing Intel fab vs TSMC/GloFo, you cant extrapolate size from a completely different fab

The first Zen CPUs are also rated to be 95 watts, even if size were not an issue, wattage is

 

Apples to oranges, PS4 was cheaper and more powerful. This time we don't know price but can surely assume no worse than very similar AND you keep forgetting to consider that these will be BC so why would people give up on their library of games for a relatively small upgrade (~40-50%) when this gen we've seen people stick with XBox even tho it's less powerful? And even then we'll likely be 2-3 years from true next gen with potentially Sony talking up PS5 shortly after Scorpio launches.

 

Lol so i'm $10 off on estimates from 3 years ago. Thanks.

The Rx 480 does draw a lot of power. But let me ask. What year is this ? Did Scorpio launch already ? No ? Launch is like 18 months away ? AMD has vega coming out ? Will Vega have power and performance improvements over Polaris ? Most likely .

Also for zen I was just showing what a cpu die size would be like. Yes its a different companies process. But I listed 2 different processes. I also listed APUs with class leading cpu performance and a gpu to boot. Now I'd believe that intel's 14nm is better. But GF's 14nm should be close to on par to Intels 22nm and I'd love to see you argue differently .


As for wattage. The ps3 drew over 200w at peak. I wouldn't rule out anything for this new generation.

 

Not sure what your talking about here.

Did we or did we not see a difference between the two in game ?

 

Unless Vega is using a different node or a new architecture then power/perf for the same diesize is not going be dramatically different than RX480. Again wishful thinking on your part, not very much evidence

Your entire argument is based on the GPU only being 200mm2 and still pushing 6 TF so you can have enough space for Zen cores

Ofc not, it needs to fit your narrative of a 399 dollar 6 TF machine. The reality is though that power draw has become incredibly important, everyone from Intel to Nvidia have focused on that. Thats why power has gone down, instead of up for performance so no i dont expect to see a 200w console from either company.

 

That's one question, did the people who stuck with Xbox stick due to things like the service and exclusives.
Another question is, did people switch to ps4 due to the (~40-50%) power difference, and the view that multiplats were better on ps4?
Considering the migration was larger from Xbox to ps, I think the second question is probably more pertenant to the discussion.

 

Oh no ?

http://www.anandtech.com/show/8526/nvidia-geforce-gtx-980-review

The gtx 980 was faster than the 780ti in every category while consuming almost 100watts less of power .

What changed ? It wasn' the node its the same one...

You can use Zen cores or you can use something else. I'm just pointing out costs in the confines of the previous consoles.

No , your trying to twist things to your narrative. When NVidia needs a faster card they put one out and sometimes its more power hungry than what came before. Just like the 980ti uses more power than the 980 that uses more power than the 970 and so on. Different performance targets are targeted at different power constraints .

 

It was a different architecture? 780 TI = Kepler, 980 = Maxwell

Try again

 

Yes, I have no idea what you were getting at anyway...I was assuming you were talking about it being why PS4 outsold XB0...so what were you talking about?

 

I could see Zen coming in at under 100 mm^2 just for the cores. The die shots released show 2 x 64-bit memory interface, and 2 x [other] off chip interface, all of which wouldn't be present on a console APU.

MS could chose to increase CUs on Polaris 10 (e.g. 4 x 12 instead of 4 x 10) and clock lower to increase efficiency. Though hopefully they'll go for something more substantial with more ROPs (seeing as they have the BW to do so, sort of).

 

wonder if 50% gpu, and 50% more memory for games would make a bigger difference together.
Would asset quality be improved by using higher quality ones or less compressed ones, and would it make much of a difference?
Before it may not have been worth doing it, but with consoles (esp Xbox) moving closer to pc development and code base, now it may be easier to target those changes.