Poll : XB360 owners. Are you getting HDDVD addon?

[Sis]

This shows why much of the industry was backing BRD on the strength of PS3, and why it's important to HDDVD to get it's own console-induced adoption, or PC adoption through MCE PCs.

I still think the consoles are not that important when it comes to adoption of new technology. Early adopter of the stand-alone drives and getting below the $200 price point are much more important, IMO.

I wouldn't be surprised if PS3 causes significant blips in Blu-ray disc sales, but I would expect a similar, but slightly better, trend of that seen in UMD.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I still think the consoles are not that important when it comes to adoption of new technology. Early adopter of the stand-alone drives and getting below the $200 price point are much more important, IMO.

Just looking at these numbers, how do you apply that idea to what looks set to happen? Early adopters tends to mean low numbers, and thus after a few of years as the number of adopters increase, the weight given to one format or the other become critical. But before then, a lead of 75% market share to 25% is meaningless if the market size is 100 units. The distribution can be swung in an instant. Looking at these figures though, if by the end of 2007 you have 500,000 standalone players and 5 million PS3s being used as BRD players (ignore XB360's for the purpose of the argument), even if all those standalone players were HDDVD, do you see scope for HDDVD to continue for a another few years to get to a mass-market pricepoint and overtake the BRD installed base?

I don't know any other format 'war' where the format has been carried on another product for a back-door market penetration. If left to standalone players the format of choice wouldn't be decided for years. But the use of consoles which will be bought for one purpose, to provide another purpose and spread the format, is something new I think. It certainly is providing far quicker uptake of a new format for media than any previous media.

 

[expletive]

Just looking at these numbers, how do you apply that idea to what looks set to happen? Early adopters tends to mean low numbers, and thus after a few of years as the number of adopters increase, the weight given to one format or the other become critical. But before then, a lead of 75% market share to 25% is meaningless if the market size is 100 units. The distribution can be swung in an instant. Looking at these figures though, if by the end of 2007 you have 500,000 standalone players and 5 million PS3s being used as BRD players (ignore XB360's for the purpose of the argument), even if all those standalone players were HDDVD, do you see scope for HDDVD to continue for a another few years to get to a mass-market pricepoint and overtake the BRD installed base?

I don't know any other format 'war' where the format has been carried on another product for a back-door market penetration. If left to standalone players the format of choice wouldn't be decided for years. But the use of consoles which will be bought for one purpose, to provide another purpose and spread the format, is something new I think. It certainly is providing far quicker uptake of a new format for media than any previous media.

I'm not going to disagree with you entirely but looking at the DVD market today, what % of people who watch and buy DVDs are doing so on a console? DVD was included in consoles as well yet i would say a VAST majority of the market 'consume' DVDs on stand alone players. (no one please chime in how they use their PS2 or xbox as their primary player, thanks. )

EDIT: Sis, with UMDs its a little different becuase PSP was the sole torch-bearer for the UMD movie format. Adoption rate and software support may be different when different market segments can play off each other.

 

[Sis]

I don't know any other format 'war' where the format has been carried on another product for a back-door market penetration. If left to standalone players the format of choice wouldn't be decided for years. But the use of consoles which will be bought for one purpose, to provide another purpose and spread the format, is something new I think. It certainly is providing far quicker uptake of a new format for media than any previous media.

It seems that this may be unique, which is why my assumptions may be off. But the difference to me is consumer intent: if a consumer buys a PS3 with the intent of replacing their DVD player because they want next gen DVD, then I would agree that this appears to mean the console is impacting the format wars.

But, I don't think that's the intent. By all accounts, most people who say they will buy Blu-ray discs for their PS3 do so "because it's there". This is the same market that initially bought UMD discs.

Conversely, when consumers buy a standalone player, they do so with full intent to use it as a replacement to their DVD player. I believe the Xbox 360 add-on falls somewhere in-between, dependant on price.

Finally, I think consumers who shop for a player with the intent of replacing their DVDs will have a greater impact then those who are buying Blu-ray discs out of convenience.

Also, numbers be damned! I once worked for a failed startup that tried to break into online application hosting. The CEO would get up in front of the company and throw around numbers like "5 billion by 2005" and "even if we only capture a small percent of that market, we are generating huge revenue."

To quote a line from the Simpson's: "Zero's a percent."

 

[Sis]

EDIT: Sis, with UMDs its a little different becuase PSP was the sole torch-bearer for the UMD movie format. Adoption rate and software support may be different when different market segments can play off each other.

UMDs seemed to have pretty good studio support. It failed mainly because people who bought the PSP just weren't interested, not because there wasn't tons of devices out there that could play UMDs.

The biggest difference in my mind is that people have widely adopted a disc format for movie watching today so if you give them a way, virtually for free, to enhance that by way of the PS3 and Blu-ray, then it's arguable that Blu-ray will win by default. This is the argument at hand, I believe. So while the PSP had to create a new market--movies on disc on the go--Blu-ray only has to capitalize on an existing market.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'm not going to disagree with you entirely but looking at the DVD market today, what % of people who watch and buy DVDs are doing so on a console?

I'm sure standalone players will be the vast majority of vewing devices in the long run. The question is, will both formats survive to a point where their players become mainstream? Is it possible that the console base will make or break either format before the player market matures? It seems that way to me, and I think it seems that way to the industry as a whole, given response to BRD in PS3 and the appearance of the rival player on the rival console. I think it's accepted that with this HDDVD drive, HDDVD would fizzle out long before players become mainstream affordable.

 

[RobertR1]

I'm sure standalone players will be the vast majority of vewing devices in the long run. The question is, will both formats survive to a point where their players become mainstream? Is it possible that the console base will make or break either format before the player market matures? It seems that way to me, and I think it seems that way to the industry as a whole, given response to BRD in PS3 and the appearance of the rival player on the rival console. I think it's accepted that with this HDDVD drive, HDDVD would fizzle out long before players become mainstream affordable.

The key will still be getting stand alone players down to $199 and below. That is Joe Q public. The $600 price tag of a PS3 is simply too much for the masses. Even the $399 tag of the 360 makes people hold off. The Toshiba can be had for $400-$500, is also one of the best upconverting players on the market and still too expensive for the masses. All the BR players will be $1000-$1800. Media prices are another story. $14.99-$19.99 will be the key selling price point.

Look at HDTV adoption rate. It's only starting to pick up recently because the prices on HDTV's have dropped so low that it's almost not even an option. Also the CE's have cycled out their standard TV lineup for the most part and replaced them with HDTV's only so the consumer doesn't even have a choice.

The same exact thing will need to happen for both formats. Bring the Hi Def players down to $199 or below and pretty much force the consumer to get it by not making any more SD DVD players. Letting the consumer decide on top of a format war will likely relegate both to a niche status. There is also a limited amount of time that the studios are willing to give new formats. If they see both formats not taking off they will cut back greatly. If we don't see either format mainstream by holidays 2008, it's not going to happen.

 

[expletive]

I'm sure standalone players will be the vast majority of vewing devices in the long run. The question is, will both formats survive to a point where their players become mainstream? .

Its tough to say without the PS3 in the market but it seems HD-DVD has an early advantage (either because of price or the unimpressive early BR titles) and everyone who doesnt have an actual dog in the fight seems to be predicting a long format war.

Is it possible that the console base will make or break either format before the player market matures? It seems that way to me, and I think it seems that way to the industry as a whole, given response to BRD in PS3 and the appearance of the rival player on the rival console. I think it's accepted that with this HDDVD drive, HDDVD would fizzle out long before players become mainstream affordable.

I would have to disagree here mostly because of the same reasons Robert states. If the consoles in question were $199 or $149 then yeah maybe. But youre making the argument that since the players arent priced for the mainstream, consoles, which arent mainstream-priced either, are going to do the job of penetrating that market.

If the actual consoles were priced for the mainstream, then i'd agree more but both are in the $500 range for what will be a marginal improvement over DVD for most.

When the PS3 hits 10 million (and thats a lot), youre looking at 3 million "stand alone" installs based on our crappy assumption of relative software consumption.

It'll be at least a few years before either format can 'win'. I dont know if either will when all is said and done.

EDIT: And in a related story:

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9588_22-6104388.html?part=rss&tag=feed&subj=zdnn

I've always felt that DD was a huge competitor to these formats...

 

[Powderkeg]

Is it possible that the console base will make or break either format before the player market matures? .

Highly unlikely when the console options are already more expensive than the stand alone players.

You can get a stand alone HD-DVD player for as little as $400 right now. You can't get any console with HD movie playback abilities for that cheap. 6 months from now that stand alone player will almost certainly drop in price while those consoles almost certainly will not.

 

[scooby_dooby]

The key will be software sales. It doesn't really matter what price the PS3 is being purchased at, as it will be purchased in large numbers.

If PS3 drives very high BR software sales(much higher than HD-DVD), then you will see more studio support for BR, and it could create a snowball effect that ensures BR will be the winning format.

On the other hand, if HD-DVD standalone's can start moving large amounts of software, and drop in price quickly enough to establish a larghe standalone lead over BR, then they may have the greater software sales, which means we might see a reverse situation.

I'm pretty sure the studios will go where the money goes, that all depends on which format sells more content. Right now, given the very slow adoption rate of standalone's in general, the edge definately goes to BluRay. We'll have to see if HD-DVD sales pick up some steam this holiday.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I would have to disagree here mostly because of the same reasons Robert states. If the consoles in question were $199 or $149 then yeah maybe. But youre making the argument that since the players arent priced for the mainstream, consoles, which arent mainstream-priced either, are going to do the job of penetrating that market.

I don't see why being mainstream needs to happen for a format to win. For a format to win, it doesn't need to sell zillions of players - it just needs the other format to drop off the radar.

If one format can establish 5x the user base of the other with substantial numbers (not 50,000 vs. 10,000!), would the other format get any of the material needed for a comeback? I mean, if BRD has 3 million players by the time HDDVD has 500,000 within a year, would most movies still come out for the HDDVD format? I don't think numbers of players matters too much. I don't think studios would wait to see which format gets to 50 million players or such to decide which format to support. I don't know what the threshold would be. Betamax was still getting some content into the 90s. But generally speaking by the time it had but 25% of the market it was considered out of the running. The standalone player market seems to account for 10-15% of the HD movie purchasing market for the next year, and if the rest goes heavily with one format, why wouldn't that kill off the other one? If you were releasing a movie and a one format had 10 million buyers and the other had 1 million, assuming buying habits were the same across the formats, would you bother with the smaller market?

It's very similar to cross platform console games, although in theory the costs involved in being cross-platform in a movie player format should be minimal, so I'm not sure why you wouldn't release on both formats as long as there was profit to be made on them all. But then in the stores if one format doesn't get as much coverage, I guess you've more chance of being overlooked.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Highly unlikely when the console options are already more expensive than the stand alone players.

You can get a stand alone HD-DVD player for as little as $400 right now.

Price isn't the main factor here. The more expensive console are going to sell more than the cheaper HDDVD player because of the extra functions of the consoles and greater worth. A lot more people will buy a $400-500 console in the first couple of years than a $400 movie player. At least, that's what those figures suggest - 2,000,000 standalone players by the end of 2007, versus how many millions of PS3s and XB360s?

The key will be software sales

That's very true, and will be heavily influenced by how many PS3's buyers are as keen on movies and HDDVD device buyers, how much the casuals contribute to sales, and whether the BRD quality picks up or continues to be a turn-off preventing BRD player owners from getting the films.

 

[Mythos]

Price isn't the main factor here. The more expensive console are going to sell more than the cheaper HDDVD player because of the extra functions of the consoles and greater worth. A lot more people will buy a $400-500 console in the first couple of years than a $400 movie player. At least, that's what those figures suggest - 2,000,000 standalone players by the end of 2007, versus how many millions of PS3s and XB360s?

...inaddition to that the consoles HD players will effect the cost of the the stand alone player because said devices are driving the material cost down due to mass production and competition.

Also lets not forget in the game space that Electronic Arts and Vivendi Universal Games support BRD format..that adds the extra for HD-DVD uphill battle.

 

[jb]

A lot more people will buy a $400-500 console in the first couple of years than a $400 movie player.

While I agree with the theory of your point, I think you are making an oversight. By the mid part next that stand alone HD-DVD players should have dropped "well" below the $400 price point. Given the fact that these standalone players should be able to come down on the cost curves much faster than the consoles can. And the cheaper they get the more they will sell...

 

[scooby_dooby]

The only way I see HD-DVD having a chance is if the standalone players completely dominate the BR standalones through next year, that would offset the PS3 advantage. I don't think the 360 drive will be much of a factor at all, though it may help slightly.

 

[expletive]

Also lets not forget in the game space that Electronic Arts and Vivendi Universal Games support BRD format..that adds the extra for HD-DVD uphill battle.

In what way, i dont see how their support means anything at all.

I don't see why being mainstream needs to happen for a format to win. For a format to win, it doesn't need to sell zillions of players - it just needs the other format to "drop off the radar."

And conversely to lose, think about what its going to take to knock MS/Intel/Toshiba off the radar.

If one format can establish 5x the user base of the other with substantial numbers (not 50,000 vs. 10,000!), would the other format get any of the material needed for a comeback? I mean, if BRD has 3 million players by the time HDDVD has 500,000 within a year, would most movies still come out for the HDDVD format? I don't think numbers of players matters too much. I don't think studios would wait to see which format gets to 50 million players or such to decide which format to support. I don't know what the threshold would be. Betamax was still getting some content into the 90s. But generally speaking by the time it had but 25% of the market it was considered out of the running. The standalone player market seems to account for 10-15% of the HD movie purchasing market for the next year, and if the rest goes heavily with one format, why wouldn't that kill off the other one? If you were releasing a movie and a one format had 10 million buyers and the other had 1 million, assuming buying habits were the same across the formats, would you bother with the smaller market?

Because its still viable and profitable to be in it. Regardless of the install bases relative to each other, HD-DVD installed base will still be at least several million by the end of 2007.

It's very similar to cross platform console games, although in theory the costs involved in being cross-platform in a movie player format should be minimal, so I'm not sure why you wouldn't release on both formats as long as there was profit to be made on them all. But then in the stores if one format doesn't get as much coverage, I guess you've more chance of being overlooked.

Yep, thats it. I just dont see MS NOT being able to drag this out for 2 or 3 years. Thats all they really want to do in the end imo, negate a possible PS3 advantage before this generations console war is decided, if not actually win the damned thing.

But i see all your point and youd have to bet on BR at this point if forced. Though i still think its not as bad for HD-DVD as some in the BR camp will argue. With the exception of Sony, i think all the studios may still release on HD-DVD, especially if the installed base reaches critical mass. Remember from all accounts, HD-DVD is cheaper to produce than BR25, and even more for BD50. That may still weigh in...

 

[jb]

Though i still think its not as bad for HD-DVD as some in the BR camp will argue.

I would have to agree and add that I think some people are going to over-estimate the PS3 impact. No doubt that PS3 will have an impact, and it will be a decent one, just not ground shaking. Of course I am basing this off the fact that HD-DVD is cheaper to make/produce and cost usally drives volume...

 

[Powderkeg]

Price isn't the main factor here. The more expensive console are going to sell more than the cheaper HDDVD player because of the extra functions of the consoles and greater worth. A lot more people will buy a $400-500 console in the first couple of years than a $400 movie player. At least, that's what those figures suggest - 2,000,000 standalone players by the end of 2007, versus how many millions of PS3s and XB360s?

You are assuming the stand alone player are limited to 2 million shipped units due to price.

You are also overlooking the fact that every single one of those 2 million players will be used to play movies. You can't say the same about the consoles.

And finally that 2 million figure is an estimate by an analyst, which normally you don't seem to trust. At least you don't when they are talking about the high price of PS3 production or potentially low PS3 sales. Why do you suddenly find them extremely reliable now? It wouldn't be just because what they say seems to support your assumptions, would it?

 

[Mythos]

In what way, i dont see how their support means anything at all.

Marketing would be one way...

 

[expletive]

Marketing would be one way...

That's all you got?!?!



Seriously though, EA and vivendi arent going to release anything but PS3 games on BR, and thats because they have to. We're still not at a point where PC game publishers regularly release games on DVD, much less BR. PC games will go to something like steam before BR imo.