Poll : XB360 owners. Are you getting HDDVD addon?

[expletive]

Doesn't that assume that no PS3 owners are avid movie fans who'll buy lots of movies?)?

No my assumption was just an 'average' compared to a BR or HD-DVD stand alone owner. As you say, some will buy lots of movies, but some will buy none, and some will buy a few. In the end, the person who buys a stand alone player is probably going to buy as many movies as the highest BR consumption PS3 owners.

If 1/3rd of XB360 owners buy the HDDVD addon to buy movies means a substantial number of movies, wouldn't that imply that 1/3rd of PS3 owners would be similarly minded and buy lots of movies, and the other 1/3rd who buy movies will be more casual in their buying habits (of the two thirds buyings BRDs)?

Generally speaking, yep i agree there. But that really is the point, its really only a portion of PS3 owners that will be BR consumers on the level of a stand alone player. I put that number of 2-3 but it could be more or less.

Conversely, someone who buys the 360 add-on is clearly buying it play HD movies, there's no gray area since there is no gaming benefit to buying it. So for those people i would put them in the same class as having bought a stand alone player.

That said, i dont think that MS will have close to a 33% attach rate on the HD-DVD drive. If they get that i imagine the HD-DVD consortium will be doing cartwheels.

 

[TrungGap]

I voted "Own an HDTV, don't care for HD movies", however it's not that I don't care for HD movies. I don't care for HD movies at the current price. Until HD movies drop to DVD price, I don't really see a need to buy HD movie. So in the end, which format priced that low will probably get my business.

edit: PS, by the time the HD movies reach that low, I'm sure stand alone player will be cheaper. That is more ideal for me. It's much nicer to have a dedicated device. IE many cell phone has a calculator, but I still rather use a dedicated calculator...

 

[J_Saint]

Add me to the "Own an HDTV, using a stand alone player." Unless they have a HDMI and 5.1 out solution for next-gen audio sources then my interest in it is pretty much gone.

 

[Powderkeg]

It doesn't particularly matter in the case of Format A vs Format B. Even if DVD remains the best selling movie format for the next five years, for the future of HD formats, if it's to go with only one format, that's likely to be the format with the most disc sales, no? And that's likely to be the format with the largest installed base of movie players, no? Regarding standalone players, if sales of those are far below sales of consoles, and consoles can play HD movies, than the size of the console base will represent the size of the format base. eg. If there's 300,00 standalone HDDVD players sold by March next year, 150,000 standalone BRD players, 10 million XB360s and 5 million PS3s, the size of the standalone player market is next to irrelvant. Are standalone players likely to outnumber consoles when on the whole they cost a lot more? I wouldn't have thought so.

Do you think 5 years from now the stand alone players will still be the same price? Assuming they drop to a reasonable price within the next 3-4 years wouldn't it be safe to assume that stand alone players will outnumber game consoles by a huge margin, just like they do now?

Of course with HD-DVD players starting out at half the price of Bluray chances are the stand alone HD-DVD players will hit the mass market price long before Bluray does.

And let's add in brand recognition into the mix. People know what DVD is. People know what HD is. These are names they recognize and trust. Do they know what Bluray is? Do they trust that name?

By my reckoning the console base seems to be the place where the next-gen movie format is decided.

By my reckoning, it's a trivil matter. The format war will take years to be settled, and by the time it is stand alone players will far outnumber game consoles.

That's certainly how a large part of the industry saw it being determined.

Only for Sony because they are betting the bank on the PS3 with Cell and Bluray. I doubt Philips, Samsung, Mitsibishi, or even Hitachi cares at all about the game consoles, much less are counting on game consoles to win the format war.

 

[Powderkeg]

Doesn't that assume that no PS3 owners are avid movie fans who'll buy lots of movies? If 1/3rd of XB360 owners buy the HDDVD addon to buy movies means a substantial number of movies, wouldn't that imply that 1/3rd of PS3 owners would be similarly minded and buy lots of movies, and the other 1/3rd who buy movies will be more casual in their buying habits (of the two thirds buyings BRDs)?

Only if you assume that every Bluray owner will be exactly like the people here, which I thought you agreed they are not.

 

[Sis]

Roughly speaking, from these results so far, 1/3rd XB360 owners will translate to HDDVD sales, and 2/3rd PS3 owners will be buying BRDs.

This doesn't seem like the logical conclusion to me. You asked two very different questions:

1) Would someone buy a piece of hardware.
2) Would someone buy software for a piece of hardware they already own.

Extrapolating anything from that information by way of comparison of the two results is "iffy" at best...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Generally speaking, yep i agree there. But that really is the point, its really only a portion of PS3 owners that will be BR consumers on the level of a stand alone player.

Well that's the other part of the equation, but one that's immeasurable in quick forum surveys!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Do you think 5 years from now the stand alone players will still be the same price?

Of course not. But if in 18 months from now, there's 10 million BRD players out there and 1 million HDDVD players, do you think companies will continue to produce ever cheapening HDDVD players, or just produce ever decreasingly priced BRD players?

Of course with HD-DVD players starting out at half the price of Bluray chances are the stand alone HD-DVD players will hit the mass market price long before Bluray does.

And let's add in brand recognition into the mix. People know what DVD is. People know what HD is. These are names they recognize and trust. Do they know what Bluray is? Do they trust that name?

Valid points to the question of which will win, but these don't apply to the console movie space. We have much larger user-bases of console owners buying movies. Whether Joe Public is buying a $500 HDDVD player or $1000 BRD player at a rate of 10,000 a week is insignificant to the 50,000 a week the consoles are selling. I'm looking at this only from the console base perspective as the standalone market will take too long to become mainstream to establish either format.

By my reckoning, it's a trivil matter. The format war will take years to be settled

Why do you think this? If there's 10 million HDDVD players by June next year and there's 1 million BRD players, consoles and standalones combined, how likely is it going to be that BRD makes a comeback? Where historically new tech and formats have taken years to become established, the inclusion of BRD into PS3 means an instamatic userbase of millions, accelerating the format adoption. Compared to standalones the format would utterly dominate the market. Now if HDDVD adoption can be sped up to match PS3's early adoption (assuming PS3 adoption equates with BRD sales, which the other poll was trying to determine) then the war can become prolonged as no format clearly wins a lead significant to end the othe. The best chance of that, based on the cost of standalone players versus the consoles, is through the HDDVD addon for XB360, so looking at potential uptake of that.

Only for Sony because they are betting the bank on the PS3 with Cell and Bluray. I doubt Philips, Samsung, Mitsibishi, or even Hitachi cares at all about the game consoles, much less are counting on game consoles to win the format war.

Well you must have been reading different reports from me for the past couple of years. I frequently heard it cited from interviews and analyst reports that the mass of BRD player sales through PS3 would make a significant impact on the choice of next-gen movie format. And why wouldn't it? Do you think if Sony sell 5x as many BRD players in PS3 then HDDVD sell players, HDDVD will still be able to take the crown? Or even compete on a semi-equal footing for a number of years? The theory seems sound to me. It could fail to pan out that way for a number of reasons, but going with the basic premise, BRD players substantially outnumber HDDVD players and rate of adoption is far faster in the early years, it's logical to conclude that the console space will determine the format of choice.

Only if you assume that every Bluray owner will be exactly like the people here, which I thought you agreed they are not.

No, that comment was assuming that PS3 owners and XB360 owners are similar, independent of any population on this board. If a third of XB360 owners are interested in movies to buy substantial quantities, why would it be assumed that PS3's users don't also have a third of their number who'd buy substantial quantities of movies? Expletive was making a point that those who bought the HDDVD addon would be sure to be movie-buffs and buy multiple movies, whereas PS3 owners might be very casual in their movie purchasing. But there's as likely to be the same proportion of PS3 owning movie-buffs as XB360 owning movie-buffs unless the hardware demographics are very different. If on XB360 with 10 million users, 3 million buy the addon and are buffs who buy lots of movies, in a population of 10 million PS3 users you'd expect 3 million movie buffs who'd buy lots of movies, and any extra movie buyers would be in addition to that - or by these poll results, PS3 would have 3 million 'buffs' and 3 million 'casuals'. Only if the PS3 population has different movie interests to the XB360 population would platform result in different degrees of film sales.

 

[expletive]

Expletive was making a point that those who bought the HDDVD addon would be sure to be movie-buffs and buy multiple movies, whereas PS3 owners might be very casual in their movie purchasing. But there's as likely to be the same proportion of PS3 owning movie-buffs as XB360 owning movie-buffs unless the hardware demographics are very different. If on XB360 with 10 million users, 3 million buy the addon and are buffs who buy lots of movies, in a population of 10 million PS3 users you'd expect 3 million movie buffs who'd buy lots of movies, and any extra movie buyers would be in addition to that - or by these poll results, PS3 would have 3 million 'buffs' and 3 million 'casuals'. Only if the PS3 population has different movie interests to the XB360 population would platform result in different degrees of film sales.

To put it mathematically, here's what shifty and i are saying.

A buff buys 10 movies/year
A casual buys 3 movies a year (really just the biggies like LOTR, Spidey, etc)
A 'couldn't care less' buys 0 movies/year

In a PS3 population of 9 million where these are divided evenly, you get:

Buffs = 30 million movies purcahsed
Casuals = 9 million movies purcahsed
CCC = 0 million movies purcahsed

For a total of 39 million movies purchased, which is around 4.3 movies per user

If we assume that someone buying a stand alone player or the add-on is = to a buff then in a similar population of 360s you get just the 30 million.

So in the end, Blue ray on the PS3 gets an uptick on the casuals in terms of software sales. That is, i think, the crux of Shifty's point, and i agree with it.

However, this example also says that, on average, Sony needs to sell 2-3 PS3s to equal the software consumption of a single stand alone player buyer. Thats the point i was trying to drive home. So when Sony says that 9 million PS3s sold=9 million BR players in the market, its true to a point but not in the way we've measure installed base in the past for these devices and not in terms of the software sales they will generate.

Things we havent included in regards to both discussions:

1. Some causuals may buy the 360 add-on
2. Price of stand-alone HD-DVD players being lower
3. actual attach rate of the add-on

 

[Powderkeg]

Of course not. But if in 18 months from now, there's 10 million BRD players out there and 1 million HDDVD players, do you think companies will continue to produce ever cheapening HDDVD players, or just produce ever decreasingly priced BRD players?

As long as HD-DVD movies are selling, they will produce ever cheapening players. Toshiba is planning on having HD-DVD players for as low as $100 by mid 2008. Think that $600 PS3 is going to outsell a $100 HD-DVD player to people who want an HD movie player?

Heck, you can get a stand alone HD-DVD player right now for no more than the price of the cheap PS3. The $600 PS3 is already more expensive than the stand alone HD-DVD players.

Valid points to the question of which will win, but these don't apply to the console movie space. We have much larger user-bases of console owners buying movies. Whether Joe Public is buying a $500 HDDVD player or $1000 BRD player at a rate of 10,000 a week is insignificant to the 50,000 a week the consoles are selling. I'm looking at this only from the console base perspective as the standalone market will take too long to become mainstream to establish either format.

The difference is, 100% of people who buy stand alone players will buy movies for that format. You have absolutely no idea what percentage of the general public will use their game console as their primary movie player.

Why do you think this? If there's 10 million HDDVD players by June next year and there's 1 million BRD players, consoles and standalones combined, how likely is it going to be that BRD makes a comeback?

The number of total players doesn't matter, unless you have some sort of factual proof of the percentage of the general public who wants to use a game console as their primary movie player.

Where historically new tech and formats have taken years to become established, the inclusion of BRD into PS3 means an instamatic userbase of millions, accelerating the format adoption.

Don't count on it. Historically new formats have worked on 100% of the televisions on the market and in peoples homes. Bluray movies don't offer any improvement whatsoever for SDTV owners, which far outnumber HDTV owners, and people are unlikely to buy the far more expensive Bluray movies if they don't see any significant improvement on their SDTV's.

They'll stick to DVD movies, and the fact that their console has a Bluray player means nothing to them.



I'm not going to bother picking through the rest of your post. You are doing precisely what I said you shouldn't do, which is thinking B3D is somehow representative of the general public when nothing could be further from the truth. Most people don't buy game consoles to watch movies on, most people don't have HDTV's and don't care about HD movie formats, most people will buy stand alone players when they do finally jump on board, and most people will recognize and trust the HD-DVD lable over Bluray.

And in the grand scheme of things, 10 million game consoles is a drop in the bucket. Last year in the US alone over 37 million stand alone DVD players were sold, and there is an estimated 164 million total stand alone players that have been sold, again, just in the US.

You think 10 million consoles world-wide, many of which won't be used as movie players, is going to win a format war? Really?

 

[inefficient]

Hmmm... there seems to be an assumuption that current xbox360 owners will not also own a PS3.

I think a good portion of the hard core enthusiasts will buy both. I certainly plan on having both. And when I have both, the only reason I would buy an HD addon for the 360 is if the quality of BR videos show no sign of getting better.

I'll even go out on a limb so far as to to make the claim that nearly all xbox1 gamers were also ps2 gamers.

Maybe we need another poll to show who intends on owning both a ps3 and xbox360.

 

[Powderkeg]

To put it mathematically, here's what shifty and i are saying.

A buff buys 10 movies/year
A casual buys 3 movies a year (really just the biggies like LOTR, Spidey, etc)
A 'couldn't care less' buys 0 movies/year

In a PS3 population of 9 million where these are divided evenly, you get:

Buffs = 30 million movies purcahsed
Casuals = 9 million movies purcahsed
CCC = 0 million movies purcahsed

For a total of 39 million movies purchased, which is around 4.3 movies per user

So, you are saying that the ratio of movie buffs to casual movie watchers is 1:1?

What if there is only 1 movie buff for ever 10 casual movie watchers? What happens to your math then?

What if the ratio is closer to 1 buff for every 50 casuals? What does your math look like then?

I detect a MASSIVE flaw in your math and logic.

 

[expletive]

So, you are saying that the ratio of movie buffs to casual movie watchers is 1:1?

What if there is only 1 movie buff for ever 10 casual movie watchers? What happens to your math then?

What if the ratio is closer to 1 buff for every 50 casuals? What does your math look like then?

Well the assumption is that within this sample set, which is 360/PS3 owners, yes theres an equal distribution. Remember, 360/PS3 owners are not exactly the 'mainstream' at this point. If you were to open this up to include EVERYONE IN THE WORLD, the breakdown would obviously look much different, but that wasnt the discussion.

I detect a MASSIVE flaw in your math and logic.

Clearly all the discussion here is based on our opinion of what will happen. I certainly dont have any market data to support this argument and i'd be surprised if anyone else did.

My advice, dont purchase any stock in Sony/MS/Toshiba based on this thread.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Clearly all the discussion here is based on our opinion of what will happen. I certainly dont have any market data to support this argument and i'd be surprised if anyone else did.

My advice, dont purchase any stock in Sony/MS/Toshiba based on this thread.

Exactly. It's only a casual analysis of the little data we can gather for ourselves. I think powderkeg is kinda missing the argument. It's not fundamentally 'which format will win' and isn't considering greater forces. It's only an investigation into what influence the consoles will have, gathering a little look at how the inclusion of a HD movie player will aid a format's adoption vs. providing movie playback through an addon.

 

[expletive]

Exactly. It's only a casual analysis of the little data we can gather for ourselves. I think powderkeg is kinda missing the argument. It's not fundamentally 'which format will win' and isn't considering greater forces. It's only an investigation into what influence the consoles will have, gathering a little look at how the inclusion of a HD movie player will aid a format's adoption vs. providing movie playback through an addon.

Yep, and the mathematical example I put together was only a model of my opinion and not the other way around (i.e. I based my opinion on that fictional model).

 

[Powderkeg]

Well the assumption is that within this sample set, which is 360/PS3 owners, yes theres an equal distribution.

And why would you make that assumption?

Remember, 360/PS3 owners are not exactly the 'mainstream' at this point. If you were to open this up to include EVERYONE IN THE WORLD, the breakdown would obviously look much different, but that wasnt the discussion.

Remember, early adopters of the PS3 and 360 are GAME buffs, not movie buffs.

True movie buffs are going to insist on stand alone players, and not use weaker game consoles for their movie viewing.

Clearly all the discussion here is based on our opinion of what will happen. I certainly dont have any market data to support this argument and i'd be surprised if anyone else did.

Well, yeh, but if I said it was my opinion that Bluray will tank, cell will fail, the PS3 will end up last place in the market due to it's excessive price and Sony will go bankrupt because of it wouldn't you openly disagree?

 

[Powderkeg]

Exactly. It's only a casual analysis of the little data we can gather for ourselves. I think powderkeg is kinda missing the argument. It's not fundamentally 'which format will win' and isn't considering greater forces. It's only an investigation into what influence the consoles will have, gathering a little look at how the inclusion of a HD movie player will aid a format's adoption vs. providing movie playback through an addon.

A far better "investigation" would be to go to an electronics retailer and ask random people their opinion. Start out in the DVD player section, move to the televisions, then walk into the movie isles, and finish off in the game console area.

You'll get a much better idea of what reality will be. Of course you may not like the overall picture you get, since it almost certainly wouldn't support your conclusions here.

 

[expletive]

And why would you make that assumption?

Mostly a response to Shifty's poll/statement which had the 360 add-on attach rate at 1/3rd. I think thats a bit high but for a the purposes of this type of discussion i'm ok with using it.

Remember, early adopters of the PS3 and 360 are GAME buffs, not movie buffs.

True movie buffs are going to insist on stand alone players, and not use weaker game consoles for their movie viewing.

I disagree, i htink theres a lot of crossover between home theater and high-end console gaming, and with a price tag of $1k for a stand alone BR player i think that unless there are glaring problems with the PS3's BR playback, a lot of movie buffs will settle until the prices come down.

With HD-DVD i agree and i said as much in my earlier posts. Accounting for stand alone player purchases is much more relevant for HD-DVD than it is for BR when youre having htis console discussion.

Well, yeh, but if I said it was my opinion that Bluray will tank, cell will fail, the PS3 will end up last place in the market due to it's excessive price and Sony will go bankrupt because of it wouldn't you openly disagree?

Well i would start by asking you for your logic and then, based on its plausibility, agree or disagree from there.

What point are you making by the way? I feel like youre just shooting my opinion down but are you building an alternate case?

 

[Mythos]

As long as HD-DVD movies are selling, they will produce ever cheapening players. Toshiba is planning on having HD-DVD players for as low as $100 by mid 2008. Think that $600 PS3 is going to outsell a $100 HD-DVD player to people who want an HD movie player?

Your logic is flawed because..1. Do you think the PS3 will be in a vacuum by mid-2008 and your discounting Blu-ray players as well going down in price.2. And price is not the only sole factor for someone to buy into HD format.

[/QUOTE]The number of total players doesn't matter, unless you have some sort of factual proof of the percentage of the general public who wants to use a game console as their primary movie player.[/QUOTE]

But even that reasoning doesnt cover those that use their game console as a casual HD player.

[/QUOTE] Bluray movies don't offer any improvement whatsoever for SDTV owners, which far outnumber HDTV owners, and people are unlikely to buy the far more expensive Bluray movies if they don't see any significant improvement on their SDTV's.[/QUOTE]

By your reasoning does that work with the HD-DVD format as well?

[/QUOTE]They'll stick to DVD movies, and the fact that their console has a Bluray player means nothing to them.[/QUOTE]

Why would they not do the same with the X360, after all it plays movies right out the box..their would have to be some reason to make a X360 owner buy an additional movie player.

[/QUOTE] and most people will recognize and trust the HD-DVD lable over Bluray.[/QUOTE]

Your bias is so evident!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

A far better "investigation" would be to go to an electronics retailer and ask random people their opinion. Start out in the DVD player section, move to the televisions, then walk into the movie isles, and finish off in the game console area.

You'll get a much better idea of what reality will be.

How is asking in a CE store going to let me know the reality of what HD movie solutions early console owners are going to use? Because that's what I'm wanting to find out. I repeat, this isn't any attempt to predict the next 5-10 years of HD movie sales and platforms. It's an investigation into how the consoles HD movie capabilities are going to be used, with a view to seeing what affect that might have on the beginning (and if you think it has prominent influence, the outcome) of the formats a a whole.

eg. One point of interst that was raised in the HDDVD addon thread is whether PS3 owners without HD sets would still buy BRDs instead of DVDs. The answer is yes, some will. Asking around in CE stores wouldn't have got me that info. And no, I'm not assuming that the PS3 population is exactly the same as that shown in a few dozen B3D forum goers, but it does show both the idea isn't totally crazy that no-one would ever buy BRDs without an HD set, and also gives a chance for speculation as an analytical exercise.