PlayStation III possible details...

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There are alot of game developers now days.

I think you got me wrong. It would be like TV networks, with too many shows, consumer is the one that will choose.

If there are fews than it would be harder for consumer to choose. Then these few shows has more bargaining power, on which TV networks they stay on. Not the case, when there are too many good shows available over several TV networks. Than consumers will have the bargaining power.

This is extending the TV metaphor too far though. With TV there is essentially one major platform these days, and in any case it only takes a business deal to get a given channel/programming onto another station. A program can be "multi-platform" quite easily. This is not so with the platform choice of developers and consoles. Bringing syndication and a variety of other factors into the equation, and the analogy breaks down.

But from your point, basically I would say, yes the consumer has power in choosing amongst many developer's products, but they don't choose it based on the platform *itself* or its virtues, generally speaking. Rather they choose based on what a given platform will offer them in terms of software, which *again* is in the hands of *developers* to decide.

Well in today market, they do, consumers decide the fate of a platform.

Only in so far as they choose what is already available to them on the platforms available. By the time it gets into the consumer's hands, the platform choice has been made. The developer still chooses, before any interraction with the consumer, what platform a game will go on. And based on that choice, if the product carries a strong brand, they can most definitely affect the brand strength and reputation of a given platform. This is even more true when developers cooperate in platform decisions of this kind, and this is the factor you're missing from my argument.

JavaJones:
The consumers will never make rational, informed decisions that will benefit the industry.

But consumer decision is the decider.

Not in so far as the platform for a given title is concerned. That decision is made based on *effects* that the consumer creates, but it is far from a conscious decision on the part of consumers, *and* it is an effect which can only take place once a platform is released and many support decisions have already been made. If software weren't available at a product's launch (which already means many companies have made the choice to support it based on predicted success, and this with *no* input on the *current* platform from the consumer), then the platform would fail, at least if support continued to be lacking. No matter how many consumers bought the hardware, with nothing to play and therefore no cuts from software sales going back to the hardware manufacturer, they would be forced to discontinue the product. And that is assuming customers will buy hardware with no software.

I am talking about now. This is a different market to the past. The future might be different yet.

Say developer of GTA or FF12, jump the gun, from PS2 to GC exclusive. Consumers won't easily jump the gun. There are alot of inertia. This is more so, since there are alot of other developers that are willing to fill in.

Sure, this is in the middle of a platform's lifecycle though, right? I'm not suggesting that it would be trivial to shift the balance of power right now in the industry. I'm suggesting that, when a platform is debuting and the publisher/developer is faced with the choice of whether to support it, their decision should be much more heavily based on the quality of the development environment and support than it is now. These factors can weigh heavily in development time and budget. Currently developers seem to make the decision largely on percieved future market, but my point is they as creators of the content for all platforms have the abilty to at least partially decide the fate of a platform. Like consumers, they can "vote with their wallets", though in this case of course they're "voting" with development support.

So what I am saying, if GTA jump the gun, there will be other franchises that consumer can choose to be the next popular thing. GTA doesn't even need to jump the gun and consumer can choose the next popular thing.

Consumer decides, its no longer developers.

That's why I suggest developers *cooperate*, act in concert. Apparently you missed that whole part of my argument. The union example, etc. I would agree, a single developer is somewhat at the mercy of a strong platform, depending at least in part also on their budget and target market (with a small enough budget and a quality enough game, any decent platform will turn you a profit, it's the unrealistic focus on million sellers that makes so many games seem like a failure, because too many are budgeted for that level).

JavaJones:
Without games, no platform will succeed, no matter how strong the brand.


See, this is not the case anymore. Previously developers are scarce, not now. There won't be shortage of games today. We are at different stages of the market already.

To sum it up, Currently, developers are competing for consumers, it is NOT consumers competing for developers.

I don't recall a time when developers were ever particularly scarce. I don't think much has actually changed in that regard. Certainly the market has grown, but in terms of known, quality developers with strong brands and franchises, no I don't think it's changed that much.

This entire argument, the key to why I'm even talking about this, is that I feel the focus on the PS2 platform in the last generation was potentially detrimental to some developers and perhaps the industry as a whole (could be argued, but don't get me wrong, I don't hate the PS2 by any means, I'm talking from a more abstract perspective here). So, with a new generation of consoles coming in 2-4 years ("Xbox2" may launch early, Nintendo is talking about stretching GC lifespan out), it would once again be up to developers to choose the platform to succeed. It *begins* with developers having the choice, *not* consumers.

In the middle of a product's lifecycle, after initial support and development decisions have been made and a product has gained some momentum and consumer loyalty, yes I agree it is the consumers choosing products from the developers for their own reasons. The important part, as I have been saying, is the *beginning* of a console's lifecycle, and with a new one coming up, I think considering these issues and how support should be decided is a very important issue.

Additionally, as I mentioned previously, the key to developers succeeding in making these kinds of moves in the industry is *cooperating* with other developers, at least to a limited degree. This is a key point in my argument you didn't address, and while I admit it may be an unrealistic expectation for developers to cooperate, perhaps you'll agree that if they did, they would certainly wield the greatest power for deciding future succesful platforms.

Sorry for the screwed up quotes btw, not sure how to nest quotes. :p

- JavaJones
 
I've heard this all before...

Developers should realize the power they have and start leveraging it to encourage development systems, platforms and environments that they favor, rather than simply bowing to the arbitrary and caprecious whims of the uninformed masses.
In the end though the consumer is still going to make the decision. The DC had excellent developer support, yet in the end the support dwindled because consumers wouln't buy the system (the sales performance in the US simply prolonged the inevitable).

The early PS2's lack of real quality games not withstanding, as there was not a strong and well supported alternative at the time. Sony essentially had what ammounted to a near monopoly for that period.

I disagree... The DC easily offered not only a more cost effective alternative, but an arguably better software lineup, yet the consumers spoke with their wallet...

Surely you can't deny that if, somehow, MS made an exclusive deal with *every* major game developer tomorrow, and halted all production on games currently unreleased for any other platform but the XBox, that people would begin to buy XBox's in record numbers, and PS2 and GC sales would drop off dramatically, especially within a year, where I would predict sales of the two others would be almost nil.

Again I disagree, especially in the case of the GCN, simply because the pre-existing library along with in-house support could likely keep them alive and well. Hell, Nintendo is living proof of customer loyalty even in the face of limited software support...

The main reason why the psx did so well is the amount of money sony threw at it

No. Money-wise, they simply got more mileage per yen then Sega or Nintendo did.

Fom advertising to buying exclusives.

Actually they didn't have to try hard to secure the two most influential exclusives (in Japan that is), although no argument about the influence of their advertising campaigns. Of course the inability to effectively market the Saturn or the N64 is obviously not the fault of Sony...

They were able to kill off the dreamcast (which imo is the better system game wise) with hype , money and a metal gear clip which didn't look better than games on the dreamcast.

Actually consumer hype and interest did considerably more damage than any actions by Sony. The TGS announcement was about as bad as it got, and practically every platform vender so far has tried to steal another systems thunder in it's launch, some just survive better than others. You'da thought Xbox would've been the king of E3 2001 after the GDC 2000 excitement, however the GCN ended up stealing the show... And you really can't blame Sony for something that Konami engineered.

In the middle of a product's lifecycle, after initial support and development decisions have been made and a product has gained some momentum and consumer loyalty, yes I agree it is the consumers choosing products from the developers for their own reasons. The important part, as I have been saying, is the *beginning* of a console's lifecycle, and with a new one coming up, I think considering these issues and how support should be decided is a very important issue.

The problem with that assertion is that what are you supposed to base the decision on? Before I left we already had preliminary plans for PS3 titles and there's certainly nothing resembling a final SDK at this stage. SDK's themselves constantly evolve and finalized hardware is rarely complete (and often isn't release at it's initial specs) early enough in the decision process. As the platform progresses you eventually tie yourself into it to some degree regardless of what a bunch of other developers are doing. Assuming you don't have significant production infrastructure dedicated to said platform, you could certainly switch to another (or add it), however by then it's quite possible the consumer has already spoken thus influencing your decisions...

Additionally, as I mentioned previously, the key to developers succeeding in making these kinds of moves in the industry is *cooperating* with other developers, at least to a limited degree. This is a key point in my argument you didn't address, and while I admit it may be an unrealistic expectation for developers to cooperate, perhaps you'll agree that if they did, they would certainly wield the greatest power for deciding future succesful platforms.

While admirable, not all developers have the same interests in mind, needs, nor the same relationships with various platform providers. Plus in many cases the decision isn't necessarily up to the developer, rather it's the publisher that makes the decisions. Also with software developers already influencing hardware design via input committees, I'd really hate it if platform vendors ceased to explore certain technologies and concepts simply because a bunch of them got together decided that a particular platform is going to die because they don't like certain aspects of it.
 
Most people opted to wait for PS2 while they enjoyed their PSXs. DCs hardware superiority over PSX didn't make any difference.
 
Yes, basically what I'm saying is:

Brand is powerful, too powerful IMO.

Developers can influence strength of brand, but they must do so early in brand's lifecycle, and they must do so cooperatively.

I do not believe developers necessarily can or will do so, in fact I doubt they will, but none the less I believe it would be beneficial to them and the industry, which is why I suggest it.

So, I'm not really disagreeing with you Archie, just idly wishing things would be different. :p

As far as the DC goes, I think that falls under my previously exempted "consoles with other significant negative factors". Sega's money problems hurt its promotion/marketing significantly, and that combined with its poor consumer reputation after the Saturn, Sega CD, pretty much everything following Genesis, well I don't think it's fair to say developers are unable to influence brand strength simply with that example.

My ultimate point is, given 2 or more competitors, neither with a negative reputation - but one potentially with a more positive one (eg. Sony coming up with the PS2 after the PSX success) - developers can influence the success of a console and its brand strength and reputation by their decisions regarding support from their major gaming franchises and brands. Given the possibility of levels of cooperation in leveraging this kind of power, they could indeed strongly influence the success of a platform.

As for what they are supposed to base the decision on, from my (admittedly limited) experience working at a publisher/developer, there *are* indications before the platform is finalized and released. Things like early developer relations, the sharing of early hardware details and ideas, handling (acceptance) of developer input into hardware design decisions, early documentation, etc. Granted it is not so easy in those months and perhaps years (for some developers in some cases) to make these kinds of judgements on platform viability (from a technical standpoint) as we now do, hindsight being 20/20 and all. But that does not mean there are *no* indicators and no ways to reasonably accurately determine who would be a good partner going forward.

Developers did it with the N64 and it was hurt significantly by it, and while Sony was not nearly so heavy handed with developers on the PS2, from what I knew pre-PS2 release even as a non-developer (though being employed at a publisher/developer none the less), there seemed to be plenty of indicators that Sony would not be treating developers nearly as well nor have nearly as pleasant a platform to work on in the PS2 as compared to the PSX. Time and again what I heard from within my own company as well as from a few people I knew in other companies was that they were targetting the PS2 as a primary platform out of necessity, because they felt it would have the largest market share, not because they thought it had the best hardware or was their first development choice.

Now, given that the DC was a marketing failure from Sega's own problems monetarily and from their reputation, and that the XB and GC were still over a year in coming, I can't blame devs for how they handled the PS2. But in the coming generation I think they have a chance to be more prepared and to make these decisions more wisely and less out of necessity and more out of desire to work specifically on a certain platform.

Sony has been open about some details, and at least the direction they seem to be going in seems fairly evident even to the general public (Vince seems to think he's an expert :p), and I can only imagine developers are even more in the loop on Sony's plans. MS's plans should seem fairly obvious. The only real wildcard here is Nintendo, we haven't heard anything on their next platform, and their history doesn't necessarily have enough strong indicators on hardware design to be sure of the future, but considering their focus on ease of development, "system balance" and low cost this generation, I think it's reasonably safe to assume they'll aim in the same directions next time. With those factors in mind, some preliminary conclusions can be drawn even by the general public, let alone by developers who surely have more info than I and the rest of the general public do.

- JavaJones
 
Currently developers seem to make the decision largely on percieved future market, but my point is they as creators of the content for all platforms have the abilty to at least partially decide the fate of a platform.

This can only be the case, if they are not replaceable. But they are replaceable, so its no time for developers to be cocky and try to decide the faith of the platform.

See an oppurtunity, seize it.

I'm suggesting that, when a platform is debuting and the publisher/developer is faced with the choice of whether to support it, their decision should be much more heavily based on the quality of the development environment and support than it is now. These factors can weigh heavily in development time and budget.

Like I said, if they are not going to support it, someone else will. Its like Sega VF4 for example, it could have been a launch title for Xbox if they work hard enough, but they just move to slow and takes different decision. Result DOA3 takes all the green stuff :)

It *begins* with developers having the choice, *not* consumers.

No.

Developers do have choice which new platforms they are going to support, but like I said, if they miss the oppurtunity, somebody else going to take it and make money.

Platform leader is not decided in the beginning is it ? Consumers always decide the platform leader. Developer can persuade them, but consumer decide.
 
mech said:
Vince said:
jvd said:
why do you guys believe it would be faster than 2ghz (I'm not saying any of this is real) But a 3ghz chip would imo be to expensive. MS used a 700 mhz celeron .

Yes, I'll go with the next generation EE, if based on Cell (duh!) running at 1GHz or there about.

Considering PS2 was 10 times the clock speed of PSone, of course we're going to see 3Ghz and beyond in the next generation.

mech said:
I still stand by my opinion that in 2005 we're unlikely to see any CPUs running at less than 2Ghz.

BAM ;)

Picked the consoles well, but I was a bit off with this prediction:

by the time PS3 comes out, we'll be having 10+Ghz P4s.

whoops :oops: Even Intel didn't see that one coming though :D
 
I was wondering when somebody was going to drag up a two year old thread and start going "told you so!!!". I can appreciate people wanting to vindicate their long held stances but serious folks, there's just too many threads appearing right now for this to be sensible - let the dust lie and then do it please.
 
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