1. Where do you think Manning will land? Why? Will it work out (I would define that as at least one conference championship game.)
I am conflicted about where he will land as there are
quite a few options. It sounds like the Jets extended Sanchez and the Redskins realized he was not coming there and appear to have traded up to the #2 pick for RGIII. St. Louis is probably pretty committed to Bradford. It sounds like the primary contenders are the Broncos, Texans, Chiefs, 49ers, Cardinals, Dolphins, and Seahawks.
It is said Manning supposedly prefers the AFC (he knows the conference and he also would not have to compete against Eli). He obviously wants to win and wants a stable situation. Looking at each team...
Broncos. Solid, but not great, Defense that seems to play up to competition (24th in points allowed and 20th in yards allowed). I personally think their Offense is a mess though. First, without Tebow, I am not convinced they have a rushing attack that has a good 3 year outlook. They let their best receiver (Brandon Loyd) go. Their team has had quite a few off season issues and sub-planting Tebow would probably not go over well with the fans. They have great fans, but in this situation I am not sure Manning wants to be the guy that chased Tebow out of town.
Chiefs. I know a lot of prognosticators like them, and they are in an up and down division, but I look at them as more glass half empty. A couple injuries to core players really tanked their season. There is no guarantee Charles comes back healthy and strong. Bowe is a good target though. 21st in points allowed and 22nd in yards allowed doesn't look like a huge selling point. Great fans but I don't see the appeal here for getting to a championship game.
Cardinals. Their defense, again, is just average at 17th in pts. and 18th in yards. Weak division is a plus (could get 4 free wins against the Hawks and Rams). The OL appears in shambles but Wells is a serviceable back. The big perk here, aside from weather and a weak division, is Fitz. It could be a scary good combo. I personally think the Colts as a team have always been overrated due to Manning. I think their Defenses have always been poorly constructed (supposedly to have the speed to protect leads which in the end I think cost the Colts a few SB opportunities), have always had poor rushing attacks (Edge was good but not great imo), and Manning has a history of making receivers much better on the stat line than they are compared to similar performing players elsewhere. Manning has never had a target like Fitz and I think it would be a game changer. But I think big picture wise...
Dolphins. If Manning was enamored by a large, fast #1 receiver Marshall, while no Fitz, is worth kicking the tires on. He may be immature but he can catch the ball. He would also get Bush out of the backfield, although that must be concerning for a running game. They have a solid Defense, 6th in pts allows and 15th in yards. He has a house in Miami and it is warm. The problem I see is they have to play the Pats and Jets 2x a year each. I don't think the Dolphins have the talent to compete with such yet.
Seahawks. They have a surprisingly good defense for their record (7th pts, 9th yards). I think Seattle is the dark horse, but as a Seahawk fan I am biased. Great fans, quiet but nice city, weak division (if they get Manning they get 4 free wins from the Cards and Rams). Solid ownership and a commitment to win. The big concern really needs to be the OL. Their rookie Right Side looked poor. RT (Carpenter) looked plain slow and RG Moffit didn't look much better early in the season. Gallery (LG) is pro-bowl caliber but injury prone. The LT (Okung) is improving but also has had injury problems. You could argue that no OTAs last year while getting a new line coach (Cable), new philosophy (zone blocking), having rookies on the line, and the injuries held them back. But if I am Manning this is a concern. A big one. On the flip side having zero passing game with Jackson (who holds the ball far too long) makes the issues worse than need be.
But there are positives. The biggest is SEA has a good TEs in Zach Miller (remember him from OAK? Yeah, he had to block all last year). Manning likes a good TE and Miller fits that bill. FB Michael Robinson was a pro-bowler. At RB they have Lynch. While not a top tier RB he is arguably a 2nd tier back. The big thing with Lynch is he runs hard. Manning is the best play action QB in the NFL and having a RB who hits the hole hard and fast means opposing DEF will have to stay home on play action. Leon Washington is also a great special teams player and dangerous as a scat back. WR is better than face value. Rice is injury prone but has a lot of upside (look at how well he played with Farve in MN). I wouldn't count on Mike Williams but Doug Baldwin (rookie last year) led the team in receiving and was a steal in the draft. Golden Tate has the measurables but has lacked the discipline a QB like Manning would demand. If Manning liked Seattle but wasn't sold on their receiving corps he could push for Wayne to be signed, but I think that he is on the decline and the draft (Seattle has the #12 pick) would be a better place to look. Seattle had like 5 Pro-Bowlers as a team and almost double that in alternates. They are young (2nd youngest in the league) and seem to be moving forward as a team. I think Manning puts them over the top and they would get better each year for 3 years with Manning.
Texans. A really good defense (4th pts 2nd yards) and a team that is ready NOW for a SB. You have one of the top 5 RBs in Foster and maybe the best WR in Johnson. They are in a weak division where the Jags (5-11) and Colts (2-14) are a mess and I think the Titans (9-7) will transition from Hasselbeck to Locker this year. Yes, the Texans have a top-15 QB in Schaub but I think you pull the trigger for this reason: the gap between the tier 1 QBs (Manning, Rodgers, Brady, Brees) and the rest is pretty big. And after those tier 1 guys and the next group of the Rivers and 'Berger and the Schaubs of the world is yet another couple big steps. The Texans are winners NOW. Throwing in an elite QB only makes everyone else better. And Manning would get to stay in the division, let alone conference, and hit the road running.
49ers. A really good defense (2th pts 4nd yards) and younger. Weak division--if they got Manning count 6 wins now against the 'Hawks, Cards, and Rams. The offense I think over performs; I like Gore but he is getting older (29 next year) and has taken a LOT of punishment. They lose him I am not sure that offense has much gas. On the plus side Vernon Davis is a monster, easily one of the top handful of TEs in the league, and Manning would just abuse other teams with him. They really do need a deep threat at WR though to get Crabtree some space. They were the beneficiaries of having a really weak schedule in 2011 so things are going to be tougher with a #1 schedule but I think that in the NFC a healthy Manning on the 49ers makes them a viable SB contender.
So my prediction? Since barely anyone is talking about the Texans I will predict he goes there--just to stick it to Isray 2x a year and take advantage of the weak division. If I were Manning I would be looking at the Texans and 49ers the hardest with an eye toward the 'Hawks if they present a plan to shore up the OL.
2. Is he healthy / worth the gamble?
I think he is getting healthy, but who knows? As for worth the gamble... if I am a GM and I see how throwing well and a commitment to play and I am one of those teams with a desperate QB situation I pull the trigger. Most of those teams with bad QB situations are a year or more away from finding a QB solution so why not? It would make the team relevant and generate money so it is a solid gamble.
3. Would you want your favorite team to sign him at over $15M-per-year?
Yes (Seahawks).
4. Make a case for why Manning should pick your team.
See above under Seahawks.
5. Peyton or Eli?
Peyton every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Football is a team sport and I think too much praise/blame gets put on QBs. That said they make a MAJOR impact on the field and I think Peyton's track record is a pretty good indication he has pulled a lot of sub-500 teams up to playoff level.
6. Are you sick of hearing about Manning yet?
Nah, this has to be the most interesting NFL off-season in years. It isn't just Manning but a ton of stuff is going on. But it doesn't hurt having a future HOF player still in the "can perform" years of his career (if healthy), hitting the free agent market. Not trades needed to tank your team. It is funny seeing all the team scramble.