Pachter: Apple 2013 Console

[TheChefO]

"I don't think we'll see anything from Microsoft other than a bigger hard-drive and a lower price-point," Pachter pursued, "and I don't think we'll see anything from Sony at all. The Apple console is probably a 2013 event, so nothing to look forward to this year other than price cuts.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-01-19-trends-of-2012-what-the-analysts-say

I've seen some grumblings around certain parts of such a thing ... but this is the first time I've seen it mentioned as a real product which is definitely in production and an estimated release date...



____________________________

In thinking about it, this does make me reconsider the Gaikai prediction that MS or Sony might be dropping out of the console biz.

Apple is a seriously big player. $400B Market Cap.

Sony $17B

Microsoft $237B

Nintendo $18.8B (?) Not sure on this one.

I hope neither Sony or MS drop out, but with Apple jumping in, that's another BIG fish in this already very competitive market.

Regardless, I can't see either Sony or MS being comfortable with this situation. Staying consumer centric will be extremely important if Apple is jumping in.

No room for mistakes ...

 

[almighty]

If Apple did make a console you could bet it would have ARM and PowerVR all over it!

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I'm not sure what Apple's appeal will be. All the core gametypes are associated with the Playstation and Xbox brands.

Sure Apple can draw from their iOS games stable, but considering that's dominated by the 99 cent mentality, I'm not sure that will do a rumored Apple console any favors. And if they go for larger budget titles that'll likely alienate the vast majority of their current iOS customers and then they'll be competing with the PS and Xbox brands.

It could be argued that they could be hitting at Nintendo's market with the casual audience. Only thing is they don't have the Nintendo game brands (Mario, etc.) that bring in the initial rush of buyers.

They certainly can't do the FUD marketing bull of the Apple console being easier to use, or more secure, or less likely to crash, or any of those things like they do in the desktop PC market. They won't be first to market in a relative untapped market either like they were with the iPhone (media centric smartphone with touch interface).

It would be like when MS launched the Xbox. Except the problem for them is, they won't be launching against only one strong opponent (PS2 for Xbox) but against 3 strong opponents (PS3, X360, Wii/WiiU).

Think developers will be keen to develope for yet another platform? PS3, X360, sometimes Wii, ports to PC, and now a rumored Apple console? I just don't see it.

What I do see happening however is an Apple set top box with better functionality than the old Apple TV. Bring that in with a more consolidated and media centric interface while giving it access to the iOS store as well as social networking sites and they have something that'll likely sell well.

Perhaps a partnership with gaikai or onlive. That'll give it access to some core games. Albeit at a graphical disadvantage and control latency disadvantage. As well as only be available/useable in large market centers where the infrastructure for decent play through Onlive could be sustained.

A console, however, it would not be. And certainly not competition for Sony or MS. And unlikely to be much of one for Nintendo either.

Regards,
SB

 

[liolio]

Weirdly enough that sounds almost out of place in his talk, like something half between an insight and a typo

Anyway one of the intensive I see for Apple to get into the TV market (which in the end is what console are TV accessories) is Android and Google getting there. Google TV, Apple Tv look like unsuccessful products but if manufacturers starts to integrate Android in TV it's another matter, Apple may not want to leave this market to Google without a fight (not too mention overall dangerously fast Android take over the world).

If I take the Gakai CEO seriously I would say that the big fight has gone global form phones to tablets, to computer and TV accessories (call them what you want). The fight has turned global is name is OS and the associated software environment. It's about marginal value and how games contribute to it. Social gaming has made computer gaming relevant to the masses (whether it's in a way core gamers like is another matter), it's a feature to have but only a part of the picture and not a critical one.
Consoles has hub to content will imho fail, it's happen. The kind of investments that would allow a console to be competitive in regard to overall services offered to a customer by a full blown OS and the matching software environment is ridiculously high it would only be justified by actually trying to push your own OS.

I will my feeling is that even for core gamers (not the most hardcore) the value of dedicated gaming devices is eroding and faster than most think. I think we could be a few year away for a major change in costumers perceptions all it needs is a major break through. Apple may start it, somebody else could but it's closer than the "hardcore google"

Spoiler

meant as beer google

would let us think.

I've a growing disagreement with all the talk going on here about "power", the kind of graphics we need, what the technology can deliver, etc. First I'm not giving Patcher's predictions more importance that they have, it;'s more a matter for me to express my opinion and discuss openly. I'm going to use an concrete statement as an example.
Nintendo enters the console market with a console twice as powerful as the PS360 in fall 2012. Apple enters the TV market with an iOS device twice as powerful as the PS360 in 2013.

Those events are not directly comparable, they don't provide the consumer with the same service, their marginal value is different. It's pretty obvious which one as the higher marginal value for the average consumer. It's also pretty obvious who is entering the biggest market.

My belief is such a move would decrease pretty fast the marginal value of dedicated gaming system even to core gamers really fast. It's close to be good enough so one may find less and less intensives to by a dedicated gaming system.

As for Apple being successful or not, well they are not alone Google or any big electronic company may initiate something that starts the shift ( the global OS war).
Why do I believe that the move could be successful now? Clearly smartphones and tablets, in France tablets sold more than PC this Christmas as an example, the opportunity for a interactive TV running the same OS, the same applications (including), accessing the same data, interacting with your other devices is to create imo an immense added value in costumers mind, the marginal value value of such a product create a first priority threat for the other devices that used to be plugged into tv (let consider TV with build in system and it's even uglier).

Patcher's predictions aside I think that there is a blood bath coming to Costumer Electronic World, there will be dead bodies all over the place.

 

[TheChefO]

I'm not sure what Apple's appeal will be. All the core gametypes are associated with the Playstation and Xbox brands.

Sure Apple can draw from their iOS games stable, but considering that's dominated by the 99 cent mentality, I'm not sure that will do a rumored Apple console any favors. And if they go for larger budget titles that'll likely alienate the vast majority of their current iOS customers and then they'll be competing with the PS and Xbox brands.

It could be argued that they could be hitting at Nintendo's market with the casual audience. Only thing is they don't have the Nintendo game brands (Mario, etc.) that bring in the initial rush of buyers.

They certainly can't do the FUD marketing bull of the Apple console being easier to use, or more secure, or less likely to crash, or any of those things like they do in the desktop PC market. They won't be first to market in a relative untapped market either like they were with the iPhone (media centric smartphone with touch interface).

It would be like when MS launched the Xbox. Except the problem for them is, they won't be launching against only one strong opponent (PS2 for Xbox) but against 3 strong opponents (PS3, X360, Wii/WiiU).

Think developers will be keen to develope for yet another platform? PS3, X360, sometimes Wii, ports to PC, and now a rumored Apple console? I just don't see it.

What I do see happening however is an Apple set top box with better functionality than the old Apple TV. Bring that in with a more consolidated and media centric interface while giving it access to the iOS store as well as social networking sites and they have something that'll likely sell well.

Perhaps a partnership with gaikai or onlive. That'll give it access to some core games. Albeit at a graphical disadvantage and control latency disadvantage. As well as only be available/useable in large market centers where the infrastructure for decent play through Onlive could be sustained.

A console, however, it would not be. And certainly not competition for Sony or MS. And unlikely to be much of one for Nintendo either.

Regards,
SB

Well, at the time, what was the draw for a new console entering the market when Sega, Nintendo, and Sony were already serving gamers?

Deep pockets and determination is a lethal combo...

What could they offer to lure gamers?

They could take the xbox angle, invest heavy in top notch hardware guts that traditionally would be deemed too expensive to sell at a reasonable cost and outclass their competitors.

They could go for the Wii route where they invest in "light" hardware and focus on user experience tying the console in with their ipad/pod/phone experiences.

They could go for the middle ground offering roughly the same hardware spec as ps4/xb720 and bring a pricewar to the table in the attempt to force one of the other two out.

Or, perhaps they are partnering with one of the big 3 ?


For developers, I think it's safe to assume Apple will be bending over backwards to convince devs to develop/port titles, so the dev environment will likely be pretty dev friendly.

I'd also not be surprised to see Apple being rather aggressive with buying timed exclusive rights, DLC, studios, and also trying to undercut Sony/MS with royalties.

Unfortunately for Sony/MS, Apple really doesn't need money from games, But they do want a box in the livingroom.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I'm not sure what Pachter would be basing this on. Probably nothing. I wouldn't consider this as anything more than an unlikely rumour.

But just for the fun of playing this game, I'd say there would be a lot of interest and value in the following:
-set top box
-iOS variant
-media capabilities of Apple TV for Content
-Run iPhone and iPad apps
-iPhone and iPad as remotes
-integrated Facetime and iMessenger
-use same/expanded tools for iOS development

Tied in with the iPhone and iPad, they could release a pretty successful multimedia box that could run some high-end games. I'm not saying they'd be #1 or take over, but I'm pretty sure a continuation of the branding from iPad and iPhone could take them a long way.

 

[TheChefO]

Apple enters the TV market with an iOS device twice as powerful as the PS360 in 2013...

Pachter did specifically say "console". We've all known Apple has been producing Ipads for a while and they can play games, and they've had AppleTV, twice now. So I don't think this console that Pachter is talking about is anything other than a console.

With that being the case, this isn't a change of consoles becoming something else or of consoles being usurped by ipad/pod/phones. Quite the opposite.

Seems a clear indication of Apple recognizing that the livingroom is not an easy nut to crack. These gaming consoles are the closest that any have ever come to being the be all end all entertainment hub of the livingroom that many electronics CEOs have been dreaming of.

As for Google android in TV's ... They've been trying to do this for a while (integrating additional "smart features" into TV's, but TV makers want it for their own purposes which don't necessarily align with consumers interests.

I don't think Sony/MS/Nintendo are worried about android enabled TV's.

Tv's don't change hands that often and thus the potential market for "smart TV's" is limited. Significantly more so than a console which can work with any existing TV ...

 

[liolio]

He made a single elusive sentence with indeed the word console in it which means to me that gaming will contribute significantly to what the system offers to costumer. Apple not launching an iOS device would be weird to me if not demented.

For Android Tv let see how it evolves, the first product only launched in China so far. As for consumers not changing TV that often it's true but it's true for console (not matter we like it or not we have no choice...), computer. It's not like as if our perception about what a TV is and does were to change we could not modify slightly our purchasing habits.

 

[TheChefO]

It's not like as if our perception about what a TV is and does were to change we could not modify slightly our purchasing habits.

It's not a realistic mass market appeal unless you get enough TV manufactures to buy in and basically influence an entire generation of TV's to be on your "platform" (android, windows, ios).

But from the point of view of consumers uptake of these new smart TV's, Suppose you go to a freinds house and he has his new 55" android TV. Two years ago you just bought your LED 55".

How likely are you to toss your TV and upgrade for those features, when you could get a STB to ADD to your TV instead?

Depending on consumers to start swapping out TV's for functional features isn't a strong business plan to build on.
__________

As for the Quote, the context was clearly gaming console releases. Will it have IOS compatibility? I can't see why not.

 

[patsu]

In a very real sense, iPad is already a console for many. Apple just need to drop the price further, and keep improving on the entertainment experience. We have already seen OnLive, WebGL, OpenGL games on iPad. More and more games are definitely coming.

 

[TheChefO]

I'm not sure what Pachter would be basing this on. Probably nothing. I wouldn't consider this as anything more than an unlikely rumour.

But just for the fun of playing this game, I'd say there would be a lot of interest and value in the following:
-set top box
-iOS variant
-media capabilities of Apple TV for Content
-Run iPhone and iPad apps
-iPhone and iPad as remotes
-integrated Facetime and iMessenger
-use same/expanded tools for iOS development

Tied in with the iPhone and iPad, they could release a pretty successful multimedia box that could run some high-end games. I'm not saying they'd be #1 or take over, but I'm pretty sure a continuation of the branding from iPad and iPhone could take them a long way.

Indeed.


The interesting thing to me is that Apple already has casual games pretty well locked up with ipad/phone/pod. So for them to introduce a "console" to me clearly spells their intent to bring a comparable experience to MS/Sony.

A big boy console.

So with that, brings direct competition to Sony/MS. 1st order of business if I'm in MS/Sony shoes is secure my existing userbase. PS4/xb720 need to whatever possible to lure their existing userbase onto the nextgen platform. And do so as quickly as possible.

The question of BC isn't a question at all if Apple is right around the corner. This will be a hook to help lure in and/or keep users on the existing platform and staying there as long as they don't screw up.

Intro MSRP can't be unreasonable. $400 (base Sku price) at most.

Get on the phone with Pubs/Devs and start working on some exclusivity deals.

Ease of development for NG consoles will also have to be a priority.

...and of course before leaving the office, drop a get-well-soon card to Nintendo.

 

[liolio]

It's not a realistic mass market appeal unless you get enough TV manufactures to buy in and basically influence an entire generation of TV's to be on your "platform" (android, windows, ios).

But from the point of view of consumers uptake of these new smart TV's, Suppose you go to a freinds house and he has his new 55" android TV. Two years ago you just bought your top of the line LED 55".

How likely are you to toss your TV and upgrade for those features, when you could get a STB to add to your TV instead?

How about having more of a PC gamers approach to the system perfs? Actually most PC gamer are not upgrade addicts and run pretty outdated hardware. Is this that strange?

Still I agree somebody has to set "the rules" a starting point. Apple may set the bar with an external device then competitors would follow suit ( either through external or internal devices). Actually being able to pursue the system in various form factor is interesting for people that would have been let "out of the game" still business mentality is more than often "you want it buy it'.
We speak of Apple but it could be Samsung or any big CE actor.

I clearly acknowledge your point somebody has to make a success a strong entry to start the snowball effect, it's not trivial but I feel like it becoming easier and easier thank to the penetration of both Android and iOS. I won't agree on "Apple entering the console market" no matter how Patcher worded it, I would have said that if they actually launched the Pipin now the situation is completely different on many (every?) accounts, it's more than that in my opinion.

 

[TheChefO]

In a very real sense, iPad is already a console for many. Apple just need to drop the price further, and keep improving on the entertainment experience. We have already seen OnLive, WebGL, OpenGL games. More and more games are definitely coming.

Ipad isn't the STB hooked up to the TV though.

It is limited in many ways, and for this reason, we have seen Apple trying twice with Apple TV (both failing) and their infamous Pippen device from the 90's.

This device will be a console.

 

[DJ12]

If Apple did make a console you can guarantee it would be underpowered, overpriced shite based on a technology already 4 or 5 years out of date.

 

[patsu]

Ipad isn't the STB hooked up to the TV though.

It is limited in many ways, and for this reason, we have seen Apple trying twice with Apple TV (both failing) and their infamous Pippen device from the 90's.

This device will be a console.

Apple's model is different. The new AppleTV and iPad run the same OS anyway. An AppleTV (console) game should be able to run seamlessly on iPad and vice versa. There may be some performance difference but their "console" concept is virtual. The hardware keeps improving every 1-2 years. One year, AppleTV may be more powerful than iPad. Another year, iPad may be more powerful. It's not so relevant to the users.

That's why Sony initiated Playstation Suite as well.

EDIT: The other benefit of Apple's approach is you buy the game once and only once, it runs on all iOS devices. It even offers to auto-download my new game to all my iOS devices.

As for STB model, iPad's numerous free and ala carte video services already threatened the cable companies.

 

[TheChefO]

I won't agree on "Apple entering the console market" no matter how Patcher worded it, I would have said that if they actually launched the Pipin now the situation is completely different on many (every?) accounts, it's more than that in my opinion.

I know English isn't your first language, but when looking at the comment in context, he is clearly expecting a console in the traditional sense of what we think of.

Pachter may get a bad wrap for many of his predictions, but this wasn't a prediction of: "Do you think Apple will ever enter the console market?".

The way it was worded and in the context, he might as well have been talking about Wiiu, or Xbox720, or PS4. We all know those are in development, and have ideas on when they may be coming out.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-10-12-gabe-newell-apple-will-oust-consoles

"I suspect Apple will launch a living-room product that redefines people's expectations really strongly and the notion of a separate console platform will disappear," Newell prophesied, during a tech conference

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Very soon Apple is able to put PS Vita level tech in all it's products and it'll only get faster and quite rapidly. Apples fan base are fast upgraders, so it won't take long until Apple has a decent infrastructure to deliver very varied content including games. Full iOS-compability is already huge. It's up to them what they want to do, but some type of console/TV-box with ever more wider offerings seems a no brainer to me.

 

[TheChefO]

Apple's model is different. The new AppleTV and iPad run the same OS anyway. An AppleTV (console) game should be able to run seamlessly on iPad and vice versa. There may be some performance difference but their "console" concept is virtual.

That's why Sony initiated Playstation Suite as well.

EDIT: The other benefit of Apple's approach is you buy the game once and only once, it runs on all iOS devices. It even offers to auto-download my new game to all my iOS devices.

Apple has yet to prove they can sell $60 games though.

For all the doomsday talk of mobile where it makes sense that casual bite-size gaming makes sense (and the price to match), there is still a very healthy and thriving market of "hardcore" gamers that have no problem paying $60 for games (and tens of millions that also pay $60 per year for online play).


Apple's angle may be to literally bring the ipad to the big screen. But I don't foresee much more success than they had with appletv with such an approach.

Why would I want my ipad game on the TV, when I have it in my hands? Also, if it's literally the same game across all devices, that's a relatively low baseline for performance. Significantly below xb360/ps3.

I don't think this will be a lightweight console. There isn't much incentive to buy it if that is the case.

Why not just buy an ipad?

 

[liolio]

May be it's indeed an English or wording issue, I mean gaming might play a strong part in Apple positioning of their product but I think that overall the most important part will be that it runs iOS.

I wasn't aware of that quote from Newell but it kind of confirm me in my way of thinking, "raising expectations" and "seperate console platform will disapear" scream fullblown OS to me. That's what Apple is selling no matter how they wrap it and how they position a product running their OS.

 

[TheChefO]

Very soon Apple is able to put PS Vita level tech in all it's products and it'll only get faster and quite rapidly.

Vita is impressive for what it is, but it is still considerably behind xb360/ps3.

The rate of improvement by Apple products has been impressive, but I think that is mostly a product of where they started from. The rate of improvement isn't sustainable in the mobile sector unless there is a major breakthrough in battery power, or chip efficiency.

As is, they are scaling process technology AND increasing the size of the chips, but this level of growth isn't sustainable without killing battery times and burning hands.

It's up to them what they want to do, but some type of console/TV-box with ever more wider offerings seems a no brainer to me.

I'd be surprised if this console isn't compatible with IOs apps, but I don't think ipod/pad/phone will be compatible with the console games.

If so, that's a weak console and Sony/MS/Nintendo don't have much to worry about ... eh maybe Nintendo does.