OH NO! Is this the start of the US attacking Iran?

[Fred]

Granted, though it probably wouldn't hurt to incite some more students.

So what do you propose to do?

 

[L233]

Granted, though it probably wouldn't hurt to incite some more students.

So what do you propose to do?

About Iran? Nothing. If anything, America's meddling would only be water on the mills of the reactionary forces in Iran.

 

[ByteMe]

You are fooling yourself if you think an invasion would be welcome.

Well my evidence comes from people that used to live there and currently visit once a year. Where does yours come from?


"BAGHDAD ? Most people here want Iraq's next government to be something like a democracy, according to a Gallup Poll. That finding suggests the wishes of many Iraqi people are roughly in line with U.S. hopes for this country. (Related item: Parliamentary system is the top choice)"

"Few Baghdad residents want a government controlled by Muslim religious leaders, as in neighboring Iran. Only about a quarter say such a system would be acceptable. It is the first choice of just under 10%."



http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2003-09-25-poll-iraq_x.htm

I believe saying what you said is not the truth and just helps spread misinformation

 

[L233]

Well my evidence comes from people that used to live there and currently visit once a year. Where does yours come from?

That's not evidence, it's hearsay - unless you can provide statistical evidence that those opinions are representative for the Iranian population.

"BAGHDAD ? Most people here want Iraq's next government to be something like a democracy, according to a Gallup Poll.

Your point?

We're talking about whether an American invasion of Iran would be welcomed by Iranians and not about the political preferences of the Iraqis.

 

[Mariner]

I think what the Iraqis really want in the short term is for the electricity and water services to be fully reinstated as soon as possible.

From the reports I've seen, these basic parts of the infrastructure still haven't been repaired properly and this is why a great deal of the bad feeling against the Americans exists. I expect if I had been sweltering away in temperatures of 50 degrees celsius for months (about 120 fahrenheit) with water and electricity shortages, I wouldn't look too kindly upon my 'liberators' either!

 

[L233]

I think what the Iraqis really want in the short term is for the electricity and water services to be fully reinstated as soon as possible.

Nah. We all know that the prospect of Freedom(tm) to elect some politicians into office is a more than sufficient subsitute for housing, sustenance, water, security, electricity and such.

 

[ByteMe]

That's not evidence, it's hearsay - unless you can provide statistical evidence that those opinions are representative for the Iranian population.

What? Did you see the link? It was a freaking gallup poll with Iraq's people!

Your point?

We're talking about whether an American invasion of Iran would be welcomed by Iranians and not about the political preferences of the Iraqis.

One of my points was that the crap that is currently said about what would happen if the USA attacked Iran is the same grap that was said about what if the USA attacked iraq. I am just proposing that once again the politically correct pseudointellectuals' will be wrong.

 

[ByteMe]

I think what the Iraqis really want in the short term is for the electricity and water services to be fully reinstated as soon as possible.

From the reports I've seen, these basic parts of the infrastructure still haven't been repaired properly and this is why a great deal of the bad feeling against the Americans exists. I expect if I had been sweltering away in temperatures of 50 degrees celsius for months (about 120 fahrenheit) with water and electricity shortages, I wouldn't look too kindly upon my 'liberators' either!

Well not that I agree but many would argue WHY? How many countries EVER rebuilt a country right after they got done kicking their a$$?

The USA WILL rebuild Iraq just like we have done others (Germany,Japan,France). Hmmm.... It seems that the USA defeats all these countries and then rebuilds them to much better than they were before.

Heck, If I didn't live in the USA I would want my country to get attacked just so it could get rebuilt much better than it was before.

And then you have the ignorant Iraqs' (and other non-citizen extreme Islamics) that are sabotaging the work that the USA is rebuilding. Why? they are only hurting their own country/people. Damn that is stupid. Oh god, I think I am going to have an aneurysm.

 

[L233]

That's not evidence, it's hearsay - unless you can provide statistical evidence that those opinions are representative for the Iranian population.

What? Did you see the link? It was a freaking gallup poll with Iraq's people!

I was directly refering (including quote) to THAT statement of yours:

Well my evidence comes from people that used to live there and currently visit once a year. Where does yours come from?

Freaking Gallup poll? Are you freaking Gallup? If yes, I apopogize, Mr. Freaking Gallup.

One of my points was that the crap that is currently said about what would happen if the USA attacked Iran is the same grap that was said about what if the USA attacked iraq. I am just proposing that once again the politically correct pseudointellectuals' will be wrong.

The "politically correct pseudointellectuals" (wtf is a pseudointellectual?) still have been right about WMD, Al-Queda connections and the Bush administations complete lack of any post-war concept for Iraq and their inability to "win the peace".

Again, what's your point here? A majority of Iraqis does not want a religious government so it must be the same with the Iranians? Any proof to back that assertion up or are you just taking a hunch?

Also, what does that have to do with the question whether an American invasion of Iran would be welcomed by the Iranians or not? Even if Iranians would prefer some democratic government, how on earth does that possibly constitute evidence that they would welcome an American invasion?

 

[Willmeister]

The USA WILL rebuild Iraq just like we have done others (Germany,Japan,France). Hmmm.... It seems that the USA defeats all these countries and then rebuilds them to much better than they were before.

That's highly dubious. The USA had invaded Panama and is worse off now than before. As for Germany and Japan, the USA profitted handsomely off the 'Marshal Plans'. The plans, especially in the case of Europe was just loaning back their own money (capital flight/big reason behind Bretton Woods). The USA relegated Japanese industry to trinkets by barring imports until the Japanese started kicking butt and the USA couldn't bar their products. It was the Japanese themselves, through various government institutions like MITI that created Japan.

 

[L233]

The USA WILL rebuild Iraq just like we have done others (Germany,Japan,France). Hmmm.... It seems that the USA defeats all these countries and then rebuilds them to much better than they were before.

The USA rebuilt Germany, Japan and France? Get a history book.

Germans rebult Germany, Frenchmen rebuilt France and Japanese rebuilt Japan. The US merely granted financial aid and in the case of Germany and Japan it wasn't even much.

Germany recieved $1.4 billion over 4 years (about $6 billion in today's dollars). Including interest, Germany paid back about 3.5 billion in rates until 1962. It was a loan.

In 1949 the Marshal Plan funds constituted 3% of the almost non-existent GNP of an utterly destroyed country. In 1952 it was 0.4%.

The Marshal Plan funds were used alsmost exclusively to buy American grain, not for construction.

The American contribution wasn't even a remotely substantial factor in rebulding Germany, it merely helped to feed the people in the years after the war. I wish the US had just shipped grain to Germany so we wouldn't have to keep up with that ignorant crap about America rebuilding Germany. My granfather's generation rebuilt Germany through hard work and determination.

Yes, it was helpful. But it did not rebuild the country. Now, put away the crack pipe.

Next time you're looking for an example of genuine American generosity, try CARE packets.

Heck, If I didn't live in the USA I would want my country to get attacked just so it could get rebuilt much better than it was before.

When the Marshal Plan ended in 1952, Germany wasn't anywhere near being better off than it was before in terms of economy and living standards.

 

[ByteMe]

The "politically correct pseudointellectuals" (wtf is a pseudointellectual?) still have been right about WMD, Al-Queda connections and the Bush administations complete lack of any post-war concept for Iraq and their inability to "win the peace".

WHAT? "complete lack of any post-war concept"

http://www.csis.org/hill/ts030211zinni.pdf

There have been plans for awhile. AND from what I understand the plans are constantly being modified. The Final goal is Irag's self governance.

Again, what's your point here? A majority of Iraqis does not want a religious government so it must be the same with the Iranians? Any proof to back that assertion up or are you just taking a hunch?

Also, what does that have to do with the question whether an American invasion of Iran would be welcomed by the Iranians or not? Even if Iranians would prefer some democratic government, how on earth does that possibly constitute evidence that they would welcome an American invasion?

First I based in on what a familly from Iran told me. And then it is also hard to get many opinions from people in Iran that does not follow the political line. They would be punished/killed.

But the facts show that Iran government is under pressure from it's unhappy people.

http://madeiniran.blogspot.com/2003_07_01_madeiniran_archive.html

Here is a link to students that currently go to school here but will return to iran to try to help and change it.



JUST SAW

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3141490.stm

Looks like the USA is going to make Iran change.

 

[L233]

WHAT? "complete lack of any post-war concept"

http://www.csis.org/hill/ts030211zinni.pdf

There have been plans for awhile. AND from what I understand the plans are constantly being modified. The Final goal is Irag's self governance.

To have a "goal" is not the same as having a concept. That paper you linked to is actually just a bunch of suggestions how to deal with the issues that came up due to the LACK of any coherent concept. It reads like an ad hoc patchwork stating totally obvious truisms like "everything must be coordinated" or "the efforts must be planned...".

Gee, this document is actually PROOF that Rummy and his cronies have no concept whatsoever. It's of full between-the-lines criticism of what went wrong so far!

Examples:

"The military cannot be stuck with the whole mission as has happened in the past"

"We should do everything under international institutions if at all possible"

"You need someone on the ground"

"Internal order will be most critical..."

and the TRUE bomb:

"Is Iraq tranformed or simply transistioned?"

They don't even know yet whether Iraq is to be transformed or simply transistioned!

And you have the nerve telling me that there is a post-war concept?

First I based in on what a familly from Iran told me.

Which is - as I have stated - hearsay and not evidence.

And then it is also hard to get many opinions from people in Iran that does not follow the political line. They would be punished/killed.

You don't need to get any opinions from people in Iran. That no Iranians would want their sons, fathers and brothers drafted into the amry to die in a hail of American bombs is a god damn fucking no-brainer!

Add in the collateral damage and the casualities resulting from the breakdown of civilian infrastucture and law and order. Are you seriously claiming that there is any Iranian right in his or her mind who would want that?

But the facts show that Iran government is under pressure from it's unhappy people.

http://madeiniran.blogspot.com/2003_07_01_madeiniran_archive.html

Here is a link to students that currently go to school here but will return to iran to try to help and change it.

Yes, yes, we all know that there is civil unrest in Iran, at least among the educated (university students and such... i.e. the people you refer to as "pseudo-intellectuals").

But goddamnit, that does not mean that they want the USA to attack their country! Man, bring at least an argument or two... all you do is to post some links totally irrelevant to the issue at hand!

HOW the hell to you deduct your assertion that Iranians want to be bombed and invaded by the USA from the fact that Iranian intellectuals want a political change?!?

JUST SAW
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3141490.stm
Looks like the USA is going to make Iran change.

Yet another unrelated link. That article is not about Iran.

 

[ByteMe]

But goddamnit, that does not mean that they want the USA to attack their country! Man, bring at least an argument or two... all you do is to post some links totally irrelevant to the issue at hand!

HOW the hell to you deduct your assertion that Iranians want to be bombed and invaded by the USA from the fact that Iranian intellectuals want a political change?!?

JUST SAW
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3141490.stm
Looks like the USA is going to make Iran change.

Yet another unrelated link. That article is not about Iran.

Ok, that last "JUST SAW" Link is/was my mistake. I had been reading a number of articles on iran and that Headline pooped in on a refresh. I quickly clicked the link and thought I saw "Iran" instead of the real "Iraq". But then this does show the USA does in fact have a plan for Iraq since we are telling them to get a government together in the next 6 months.

As for the Iranians wanting/accepting the help of the USA how about a quote from the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, symbol of Iran's Islamic revolution?

" The grandson of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, symbol of Iran's Islamic revolution, said Friday his countrymen live in a depressed state that will persist until they are freed from strict fundamentalist rule."

"Hossein Khomeini, 45, spent time this past summer in Iraq, where he praised the U.S. ouster of Saddam Hussein's government and said he believes the Iranian people would accept American military intervention if no other way existed to achieve freedom."

""The U.S. invasion is really a blessing for the people of Iraq," he said. In contrast, he said, "Iranians are frustrated, not hopeful but lacking a movement to bring about their yearning to be free."

Is that related enough?"

edit *bad link*

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7010-2003Sep26.html

 

[ByteMe]

Here is another quote;

"There are plenty of university students across Iran who will say in whispers that they hope Iran is next on America's democratization hit list. But delve a little deeper, and they'll admit it's a pipe dream -- that no matter how much Iranians may hate the regime oppressing them, if they saw American soldiers advancing across the Iranian border, they would take up arms to defend their soil and their history."


http://www.daneshjooyan.org/english/article/130403a.html


So to say that MANY in iran do NOT want the USA to help is just plain ignorant.

kinda conflicting eh? <--- the quote

 

[L233]

Hossein Khomeini, 45, spent time this past summer in Iraq, where he praised the U.S. ouster of Saddam Hussein's government and said he believes the Iranian people would accept American military intervention if no other way existed to achieve freedom."

So what? That's one voice of one Iranian cleric in exile. I still don't see Iranians (just as any sane people) actually welcoming the USA to slaughter their sons, fathers and brothers by the hundreds of thousands in an intensive air campaign and then invading their bombed-back-to-the-stone-age country - all for the sake of "freedom".

As it is so often with exile opposition, they make the most outrageous claims to gather support for their cause - the Iraqi exile opposition is actually the best expample for this.

And it is safe to assume that those points of view have as little support among the general population as the views of the exile Cubans back in the 60s had in Cuba, the views of the exile Iraqis have in Iraq, the views of the exile Afghans had in Afghanistan or the views of the exile Iranian Shah supporters had in post-revolutionary Iran.

I find it extremely possible that a majority in Iran would like to see the theocracy go away. Just as I am sure that the average Iranians are not interested in having the shit bombed out of them by the USA. Sorry but I think that's so plainly obvious common sense that I find it somewhat bizare just to discuss it. Freedom does no good when you and your loved ones are dead.

That same guy also said that "freedom" is more important than bread and I think it's safe to assume that a huge majority would disagree. Looking at Iraq or pretty much every piss poor country you'll see that people are concerned about feeding their children in the first place and not about such intellectual concepts like democracy, freedom of expression etc.

If people were well willing to die like flies for "freedom" then no opressive regime would stay in power longer than a few weeks. I simply don't see the Iranians standing up and demanding "Yes, please kill a couple of 100k of us, at least we will be free!" - and that's exactly what an American war against Iran would mean.

So whatever that exile cleric said... I doubt it representative for the Iranians. Especially considering that many Iranians are very very worried that something like the U.S-backed coup in 1953, which toppled popular democratically chosen government of Mohammad Mosaddegh and brought the corrupt and inexperienced king back, would happen again.

The Iranians don't trust the USA (for good reason, see above). Many dislike the USA on a political level (maybe not on a personal level). And they sure as hell like to be bombed and have their men killed in a war just as much as anyone else (hint: not at all).

There's simply no shred of evidence that his views reflect the general opinion of the Iranians other than him claiming so. And common human sense tells me otherwise.

 

[L233]

Here is another quote;

"There are plenty of university students across Iran who will say in whispers that they hope Iran is next on America's democratization hit list. But delve a little deeper, and they'll admit it's a pipe dream -- that no matter how much Iranians may hate the regime oppressing them, if they saw American soldiers advancing across the Iranian border, they would take up arms to defend their soil and their history."


http://www.daneshjooyan.org/english/article/130403a.html


So to say that MANY in iran do NOT want the USA to help is just plain ignorant.

kinda conflicting eh? <--- the quote

No, actually it does make sense in a way. They would would accept American aid in their aspirations but if the USA were to invade, they would fight back. Personally, I see this as an confirmation of my view that the last thing Iranians want is the USA to bomb their country to rubble.

They admit it's a pipe dream... see? It's easy to discuss theoretical scenarios over the coffee table, general ideas or fuzzily defined wishes for change. Delving deeper into the issue, realizing that war would mean a huge number of their fellow countrymen or even themselves killed and they realize quickly that such as thing would be bullshit.

 

[ByteMe]

The way I see it is that mostly the younger adults/and teenagers want a different government badly. Many of these would like/accept the USA's help (or anyone else). But then I also see a strong distrust of the USA (because of events in the past).

As far as someone wanting a bomb droped on their butt, no shet, I can't think of a single person that wants that. It also seems that many of these reformists realize that a confict is the only way that will work.

It is also good to see that the Iranian people seem to be very proud (stubborn?). They hate to admit they might need help. I hope this transfers into them being able to change their government themselves... soon.

 

[L233]

Well, I agree that at least among the younger Iranians the desire for another government is there.

And maybe they would even accept external help - as long as they have some say in it. I don't think they envision a military campaign, tho (no one would want that) and they surely would not accept foreign invasion.

I also think that betting on a sudden change in Iran is a pipe dream. The changes will be gradual. The USSR wasn't brought down by one cataclysmic event, it was a gradual developement.

Internal pressure will slowly change government policy and the demographic developement will see to that (more than 50% of all Iranians are younger than 20). I think the Iranians are quite capable to do it themselves without a foreign power "kicking their ass" first. Maybe not tomorrow but in the mid term.

The developement in Iran in the past few years has been encouraging. Yes, there have been setbacks but there can be no doubt that sooner or later things will change.

Every US threat against Iran is actually a setback for the internal opposition - it probably the most efficient way to shut them up. That's why I think that in the case of Iran confrontation is the worst possible idea. You can't aid the opposition by threatening to unleash the military juggernaut on their country.

 

[ByteMe]

Maybe we should see if the CIA can screw up again and remove certain Iranian leaders.


STOP IT! I was being a smartass.