North Korea, a ticking time bomb

[pax]

Our posts are basically academic. War will pretty much only happen if the North attacks. Legion just read up on the norths non nuclear capabilities dont take my word for it. But there simply wont be any support in the south for pre emption here. Dont think the south is willing to let hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of its citizens die to prevent the north selling nukes.

Some of peculiar acts of spying on japan and the south were pretty ridiculous. The few terrorist acts were serious but not widespread. I think they realize they cant get away with that shit now...

Im not deluded into thinking negociation and diplomacy are always the only answer. But NK is clearly not as serious a prob even it does manage to sell nukes. Anyone with a 60 IQ will understand that NK selling nukes to terrorists will be traced in seconds to them and turn them into a parking lot. Its obvious the only real customers will be Iran are other countries which can be deterred from using such weapons. Nukes are simply a technology that will eventually disseminate like all other tech before it. To use war WITHOUT even attempting serious negociation in an increasing fashion to try and slow down that process is madness.

Clinton had binding agreements but bet that the norths regime under the strain of poverty of the NK people would have fallen by now. It didnt but I think its failing or the engineering of its failing is whats still being attempted. From what Ive read Kim only broke his end of the bargain years after seeing that Clinton wasnt owning up.

You misspercieve what I think is a more effective way of engineering the end of the NK regime which EVERYONE here wants. War should be the last answer. Negociation and slow methodical investment into their economy could result into positive results if we gave them at least a chance and a try. Stalling led to the NK revving up its nuke program again. More stalling may lead to what?

We should really discuss what the actual policy and its objectives are right now. Neither war nor negociation is being or will likely be attempted... only stalling. Heck I dont even expect anything other than stalling even if Dubya is thrown out of office next year for some democrat.

 

[DemoCoder]

Check this guys' travel to NK with photos

http://www.simonbone.com/pyongyang.html

 

[pax]

Man that blog is totally deceptive. Gives a completely propaganda view of NK. Wish we could find picts illegally taken probably by some NK who then smuggled it out.

 

[notAFanB]

I think that was the point (and kinda eerie).

 

[DemoCoder]

Are you saying the blog is too nice to NK, or it is too harsh? I'm not quite sure what your getting at. I read a lot of criticism of NK in that blog, so I must assume you think NK is a more rosy place than the author depicts which I would vehemently disagree with since much of what the blog author stated I have seen confirmed by NK defectors, including a 1 hour long expose by Frontline on NK by interviewing ex-NK defectors.

In fact, there is alot that the author did not cover, and in reality, NK is far worse than he depicted.

 

[pax]

NO the picts give an impression that things are rosy which is VERY deceptive. I worry some or even most wont read the blog. I thought my last sentence was clear on my point of vue ...

 

[DemoCoder]

Ah, but that's how Pyongyang works. They have removed all sick, starving, old, infirm, or homeless from the city. It is populated only by the most fit and good looking people to put on a good show for visitors. The streets are impeccably clean, and the buildings and architecture look pseudo-modern, but it is an empty city, as the author said.

A friend of mind pointed out that the makeup on the children (blush, lipstick) obsures any abnormalities you normally see from poor nutrition.

The frontline episode I saw was able to sneak video from the countryside and combined it with families who escaped through China. The situation is far worse than what a tourist will see in pyongyang. Not just in terms of poverty, but also in terms of state brutality.

I'm amazed at the absurd lengths to which they go to shut outside views. Many people with "radios" and "tvs" are actually on close-circuit systems which can only receive NK broadcasts. To stop the possibility of anyone receiving any outside media, they jam everything else. People are not allowed to talk to strangers at all. Conversation in public is risky as it laughing or looking loose. It can invite a beating.

 

[K.I.L.E.R]

Legion, I did say I was speculating. In no way did I say I was right or you are right.

I kept saying that I have no idea what's going on behind closed doors and I listen to the media make crap up when they themselves don't know what's going behind closed doors. I also have stated that no one knows what's going behind the curtain unless they are behind the curtain. We are not behind the curtain so we do not know the full extent of the intelligence from all countries about Nth Korea and their aresenal.

Politicians lie to us, they tell us 1 thing and what is really happening behind the curtain we have no clue.

IE: Blair is confident that they may never find any WMDs in Iraq. People know that the US government knew this prior to the war in Iraq. The US government has built a reputation of sending the public shoddy information.

Can you really trust their info?

I have read that the CIA said Nth Korea has 1 nuclear weapon, how do we know they have it?
Have they showed the public any proof of it?
Or is it another Iraq like case, "trust us, we are right. But we don't have to prove anything"?

 

[pax]

Its truly terrible. I can imagine if 2 million died of hunger in the last 10 years alone out of the 22 or so million people in all then its not hard to imaging half the population at least suffering severe malnutrition. Its a good measure of the regimes desperation. Im sure we can deal with them. Their hold on the people must be tenuous at some level. Not something we might see overtly. But Im sure theres some intelligence that gave Clinton the idea to stall instead of respecting his deal and investigating any kind of negociation to alleviate the suffering. An idea it seems Bush is also following.

Its striking to see how NK's fear of the west drove it into a militarism that kept it to some extent from properly providing for its population. Im not sure they are as afraid fo their own people as they are of the west yet but it cant be very far behind. At some point it should provide us with a negociating position that will see them allow investment. I think we had that when Clinton made the original deal.

We probably still have it. I think the benefit the light water reactors and fuel\food help would have provided the north with some trust of the wests desire to honor deals. This would have been followed by more deals that could have led to the first few factories opening up with our intent to expose NK to western culture and economics.

 

[Dave H]

Its truly terrible. I can imagine if 2 million died of hunger in the last 10 years alone out of the 22 or so million people in all then its not hard to imaging half the population at least suffering severe malnutrition. Its a good measure of the regimes desperation. Im sure we can deal with them. Their hold on the people must be tenuous at some level. Not something we might see overtly.

It's surely obvious that the people would ditch the regime in a second if they could. This doesn't mean we can expect a successful revolt anytime soon. Revolts take resources and coordination, both of which are likely to be very lacking in NK. Totalitarianism can be very effective if pursued with gusto: for example, neither Hitler nor Stalin faced very any internal threats, despite murdering ~12,000,000 and ~25,000,000 of their subjects, respectively.

I don't think this was because they were popular at home.

Even compared to them, North Korea seems a unique case. Saddam may have presided over a sort of 2-bit Stalinism in Iraq; but North Korea doesn't so much resemble Stalinism as the surrealist dystopian science-fiction written about Stalinism. That link DC posted is fascinatingly creepy. Sort of like the satellite photo of the peninsula at night. Or the reports of toilets frozen solid in the grand luxury resorts diplomatic teams are taken to for negotiations/summits in NK.

Of course sometimes reports about what's actually going on manage to seep out. (Truly disturbing story at that link, BTW.)

Its striking to see how NK's fear of the west drove it into a militarism that kept it to some extent from properly providing for its population. Im not sure they are as afraid fo their own people as they are of the west yet but it cant be very far behind. At some point it should provide us with a negociating position that will see them allow investment. I think we had that when Clinton made the original deal.

I agree, and we shouldn't disparage the Clinton deal too much--even though the enforcement mechanisms were weak and the North Koreans apparently set about cheating almost immediately, it certainly bought us time. NK would still be several years away from a nuclear weapon if they continued down the enriching-uranium-in-secret route. On the other hand, we can't ignore the fact that they were cheating, and that by provoking this crisis now, we are only moving forward by a few years the inevitable production of substantial nukes by the North.

The question is whether NK wants an effective deal--one that would actually prevent them from developing nukes for good. Their rhetoric and behavior, both now and the last time around, makes it obvious that they want to negotiate--you don't not only admit that you are in fact developing nukes but even brag about it and exaggerate your progress except as a ploy to extract a better deal. Clearly, stopping NK from deploying or proliferating nukes is worth more to the US than it is to NK to have them or to any rogue state/terrorist group to buy them. (Simply because it's worth more money to us than any of those people have.) The question is pulling off the negotiations so that it looks like we're not just giving in to blackmail.

And making sure the deal this time is truly enforceable.

We probably still have it. I think the benefit the light water reactors and fuel\food help would have provided the north with some trust of the wests desire to honor deals. This would have been followed by more deals that could have led to the first few factories opening up with our intent to expose NK to western culture and economics.

This is the problem--it's not clear Kim actually wants those things. But surely he wants money, and if we can get it to him in ways that open up North Korean even a little bit it might have a beneficial effect. Obviously it is distasteful to prop up such a ghastly regime one day longer. But if we don't have any good options that would hasten its end, it may be the only thing we can do.

 

[Legion]

Our posts are basically academic. War will pretty much only happen if the North attacks.

I agree. I really think this is an economic venture for him via blackmail. I think he stands to make a lot more money by transporting processed goods from NK/CHINA to ME nations. There is apparently a lot of cash flow in the area surrounding this.

Legion just read up on the norths non nuclear capabilities dont take my word for it. But there simply wont be any support in the south for pre emption here. Dont think the south is willing to let hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of its citizens die to prevent the north selling nukes.

I know they have the capacity to do some damage. From what i have read they mainly have the capacity to attack surrounding areas. That may or may be a real problem for our military. The exact nature of their military infrastructure is unknown to me.

Some of peculiar acts of spying on japan and the south were pretty ridiculous.

cough *china* cough *taiwan* cough cough

The few terrorist acts were serious but not widespread. I think they realize they cant get away with that shit now...

They have made incursion into other peoples lands. Such behavior could have been interprited as an act of war.

Im not deluded into thinking negociation and diplomacy are always the only answer. But NK is clearly not as serious a prob even it does manage to sell nukes. Anyone with a 60 IQ will understand that NK selling nukes to terrorists will be traced in seconds to them and turn them into a parking lot.

It possibly will. However, will anyone do anything about it? Has anyone done anything about China, Pakistan, Syria, etc trading nuclear techologies? Just look at the number of times these things trade hands. China tries to avoid directly selling to certain countries at particular times. They merely sell something to some one else under the auspices the buyer will resell it. No one appeared to be trying to stop this in the late 90s.

Its obvious the only real customers will be Iran are other countries which can be deterred from using such weapons.

Well they have been trading with Pakistan as of late.

Nukes are simply a technology that will eventually disseminate like all other tech before it. To use war WITHOUT even attempting serious negociation in an increasing fashion to try and slow down that process is madness.

Why is that? You honestly think the intention to use these weapons isn't already there Pax? Why do you think they are buying and selling parts? So that all these countries can play nuke chicken?

At the rate this technology promulgates and advances it will become increasingly difficult to stop unwanted trade. How do you suggest you slowing them down when the tech advances exponentially? Nukes are becomes smaller and smaller; the parts are becoming more and more undetectable. the power output of these weapons has grown tremendously.

All such negotiations in the 90s didn't help much to stop the trade of such weapons. NK was buying them from pakistan when we were carrying on negotiations with them for crying out loud. Seriously, what you are proposing is nearly as complicated as halting the drug trade.

Clinton had binding agreements but bet that the norths regime under the strain of poverty of the NK people would have fallen by now.

I haven't read this anywhere. Every source i have read has suggested he had no business making such a deal in the first place by insuating another presidency would be involved with NK.

It didnt but I think its failing or the engineering of its failing is whats still being attempted. From what Ive read Kim only broke his end of the bargain years after seeing that Clinton wasnt owning up.

What? All he had to do was stop nuclear proliferation. He wasn't about to. His original intention was buying parts for nukes and developing them! He was doing that even before NK pulled out of the NPT. He had never honored the deal. Nor were the concerns of his people an interest to him. He isn't doing this as a means to gather funds to support his nation. He doesn't give a flying fxck about his people. If he did he could have received much UN aid by clearly demonstrating his willingness to cut down on his nuclear divisions. However, instead of doing this or spending funds on his own starving people, he purchased hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment from Pakistan, Syria, and China to develope nuclear weaponry.

Its appears clear to me clinton jumped ship when he finally realized he couldn't stop Kim from doing what he was going to do.

You misspercieve what I think is a more effective way of engineering the end of the NK regime which EVERYONE here wants.

How can you propose this?

War should be the last answer. Negociation and slow methodical investment into their economy could result into positive results if we gave them at least a chance and a try.

We've already tried this. Remember Kim is looking out for himself only. his control over the populace prevents any such negotiations from working. He isn't willing to work with other to stop the problems within his nation. We'd have to force negotiations on him. How do you propose we do that? Peaceful negotiations with him via use of military extortion? that didn't work with clinton. Kim ignored threats during the first set of negotions in the early 90s.

Stalling led to the NK revving up its nuke program again. More stalling may lead to what?

This is my point and another valid reason why your peace-theory won't work. He stands to make more money from selling these technologies. All the time while you are negotiating with him he will mostly likely still be doing what he has been doing. How do you propose stopping him?

No Pax he had been reviving his nuclear technologies before, during and after peace negotiations. He had been buying parts for missles through the early part of the 90s. During the mid to later years Kim purchased parts more centered around nuclear weaponry.

We should really discuss what the actual policy and its objectives are right now. Neither war nor negociation is being or will likely be attempted... only stalling. Heck I dont even expect anything other than stalling even if Dubya is thrown out of office next year for some democrat.

I do believe history has demonstrated democrats are rather ineffective at lasting negotiations.

 

[Legion]

I kept saying that I have no idea what's going on behind closed doors and I listen to the media make crap up when they themselves don't know what's going behind closed doors.

I would suggest not believing the press when they assert that country x has hundreds of nukes. What constitutes a nuke?

I also have stated that no one knows what's going behind the curtain unless they are behind the curtain. We are not behind the curtain so we do not know the full extent of the intelligence from all countries about Nth Korea and their aresenal.

They could possibly even have MIRV technology. A very very valid reason to shut their borders down and force negotiations to take place. I wonder if such is even possible now.

Politicians lie to us, they tell us 1 thing and what is really happening behind the curtain we have no clue.

true

IE: Blair is confident that they may never find any WMDs in Iraq. People know that the US government knew this prior to the war in Iraq. The US government has built a reputation of sending the public shoddy information.

I don't have a problem with not findng the WMD. it wasn't the main reason for attacking them. Their violations of treaties and resolutions was the main cause. If Saddam could have easily avoided all of this by abiding by resolutions. I am glad the man is gone. Far more would have continued to die under his regime.

Can you really trust their info?

Honestly i don't know why our people in power are playing the WMD game. Iraq refussing to abide by resolutions was a valid enough reason to take out saddam after all he has done.

I have read that the CIA said Nth Korea has 1 nuclear weapon, how do we know they have it?

They most likely have at least 1 functioning nuclear warhead.

Have they showed the public any proof of it?
Or is it another Iraq like case, "trust us, we are right. But we don't have to prove anything"?

Yes they have. People have already discussed finding surrouding purchases Kim has made in the 90s.

 

[Legion]

It will make the US avoid a war at all costs. No, not even the heartless cowboy-capitalist Bush administration will let a metropolis of 10,000,000 gadget-buying customers be reduced to rubble.

Dave H do you think there is something inherently wrong with all capitalists? That we are all wicked imperialists? Do you really think socialists are any better? If so why? Because they operate behind the facade of being sensitive to others needs?

 

[K.I.L.E.R]

Yes they have. People have already discussed finding surrouding purchases Kim has made in the 90s.

Uhm... if it isn't a problem can you please find me a link?
I have yet found anyone offering proof.

 

[DemoCoder]

Bush isn't a promoter of capitalism. He is a pragmatist like most politicians. Just look at the steel tariffs he enacted.

 

[Legion]

Yes they have. People have already discussed finding surrouding purchases Kim has made in the 90s.

Uhm... if it isn't a problem can you please find me a link?
I have yet found anyone offering proof.

This has been common knownledge since the 90s. Its hard to find this information.

 

[K.I.L.E.R]

Yes they have. People have already discussed finding surrouding purchases Kim has made in the 90s.

Uhm... if it isn't a problem can you please find me a link?
I have yet found anyone offering proof.

This has been common knownledge since the 90s. Its hard to find this information.

Thought so.

 

[Dave H]

It will make the US avoid a war at all costs. No, not even the heartless cowboy-capitalist Bush administration will let a metropolis of 10,000,000 gadget-buying customers be reduced to rubble.

Dave H do you think there is something inherently wrong with all capitalists? That we are all wicked imperialists? Do you really think socialists are any better? If so why? Because they operate behind the facade of being sensitive to others needs?

If it wasn't clear (apparently it wasn't), I was being somewhat facetious with my wording here. I was tailoring my argument to point out (in an exaggerated version of his own terms) to pax why his fear that Bush will blunder into a war with North Korea is, IMO, unfounded.

 

[pax]

I wouldnt blame Bush too much here as hes not behind the decade old policy of stalling. I have no idea how this thing can be resolved considering the huge hold on the population the regime has. It would take more than your average amount of suffering to produce a regime change thru popular revolt. The huge suffering already seen hasnt done that.

We could easily see a moderating of the regimes military stance, once they have nukes to rely on, and devote more ressources now poured into the huge conventional military and put some of those back into the civilian economy. Probably not enough to remove all poverty but maybe to stop the worse of the famine at least...

That would help the regime stay in power and not expose it practically at all to outside influence. Another reason I think we have a chance at cracking that shell now if we negotiate.

Very hard to see a good outcome in any case. Even negociation is but a modest chance of success. I just see it as the best chance...

 

[Legion]

If it wasn't clear (apparently it wasn't), I was being somewhat facetious with my wording here. I was tailoring my argument to point out (in an exaggerated version of his own terms) to pax why his fear that Bush will blunder into a war with North Korea is, IMO, unfounded.

I haven't had the chance to speak with you. Needless to say i haven't much knowledge about your political positions or personality. I have oftened assumed certain individuals intentions in forums and have been wrong nearly as often. You would be surprised. I recently spoke to gentleman whom stated a belief that the Illuminati/Jews control the media. This man happened to be a professor. I assumed he was joking (for obvious reasons) later to find out he wasn't.