That's one way to look at it. The other could be that motion controls have proven themselves (together with touch controls) and will never again go away, but become a part of the default controller interfacing of consoles and computers. Guess where my opinion is?
Just think about the first time we got an analog stick ... however 'hardcore' people are now clinging to it as the be-all end-all of controllers, it was an innovation greeted with skepticism when it was first launched. And how about a dual-analog stick? That only seemed a small refinement over having just one, but now the PSP has shown us that for quite a few games, we can't go back.
I agree that Microsoft strongly fails to bring something new to the table. Their redeeming quality is XNA, but they did not give it any attention this time, which is a shame - I had hoped to see support for Kinect announced now to be present at launch. Maybe we'll hear about it later, or maybe they want to hold off to give bigger publishers some exclusive time to recoup their investments more easily.
Microsoft instead completely focussed on getting Kinect as right as they possibly could, and I think they did a pretty good job all things considered, particularly on making good use of Kinect in the dashboard and pretty much every aspect of it. It does seem somewhat typical of Microsoft's first party position that the games people liked best were the two third party games. Of course we know that this doesn't need to be fatal to them, but they are playing a risky game here. Nintendo won the battle in a large part owing to its strong first party titles. If there's any killer title for Microsoft now in the casual space, it looks to be Just Dance, by Harmonix.
It's an open battle, though they are in a good position. But outside of this battle, all they seem to have now is sufficient reason to hold on to their shooter fans - though just barely.