NVIDIA shows signs ... [2008 - 2017]

[rjc]

ION was about 2/3 of $180M revenue:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/136355-nvidia-f1q10-qtr-end-4-26-09-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

From above on 40nm:

"In terms of the mix towards the end of the year, let’s see -- I haven’t -- my rough math would suggest about 25%, is my guess. I mean, there’s still going to be a lot of 55-nanometer products. A lot of our MCP products, ION, for example, is still based on 55-nanometer and ION is going to be running pretty hard. I think you heard in David’s comments earlier that our Intel chipset product line is our fastest growing business and so my sense is that that’s going to continue to be successful and that is still in 55-nanometer. So I would say roughly 25% to 30% is my rough estimate going into the end of the year."

Comparing:

But it completely contradicts the existence of the 40nm Ion2 aimed at ~4Q09 for Socket 775

Is that a released product? I humbly suggest that GT218, GT216 and GT215 are enough to get to the 25% target provided all the older mainstream gpus are flushed from the system. Every GPU up to (and maybe including) G92 should be replaced with 40nm parts. The GT300 is unlikely till next year and even so would only be a couple of percentage points. Ion at 40nm as well i think would push the total up much higher than 25-30%.

That said is likely to be sampling then for an introduction sometime next year.

Edit:

Think $1000/unit average is fair?

About a year ago there was an interview on WSJ by Don Clark with Jen-Hsun who said each chip sold for around $20 and each recall cost the OEM around $600. Nvidia was planning to reimburse $200 of this cost to each OEM. Unfortunately cannot seem to search for articles beyond 3 months back on the WSJ site(thankyou very much mr murdoch) so cant check those numbers at the moment.

Also have i missed something: where is Acer? also Sony? Everyone else seems to be lining up...

 

[Silent_Buddha]

So wait, anything that includes a 9400 is now considered ION? I'm confused. More Nvidia renaming schemes?

Regards,
SB

 

[digitalwanderer]

Sounds more like creative accounting.

 

[dkanter]

ION was about 2/3 of $180M revenue:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/136355-nvidia-f1q10-qtr-end-4-26-09-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

(Gill's questioning) with Apple accounting for >~50% of that. Chipsets overall appear to have a gross margin of >~31%.

Jawed

No no no no. NV started calling all their Intel chipsets "ION". Originally, ION was just the chipset for Atom, which I can assure you is not selling $120M/year.

NV's entire Intel chipset business is $120M. ION (i.e. for Atom) is probably a tiny fragment of that.

DK

 

[Sound_Card]

Bwahahaha! You really think that isn't an utter joke? Did you hear the call? NV sleaze at it's finest!

-Charlie

Jawed is a sleaze for no one. Careful with your comments. Not wise to label those who you don't know.

 

[Sinistar]

Intel's next generation Atom platform, code-named Pine Trail, will ease out graphics chip makers like Nvidia from designing graphic chips around the Atom processor, the company said on Tuesday.

Pine Trail is scheduled to start shipping from Intel in the second half of this year, and like the earlier Atom platform is designed for small, low-cost laptops and desktops, known as netbooks and nettops.

http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/index.cfm?newsid=26107

CPU, GPU, and memory controller on one chip. Nvidia can't be happy about that.

 

[Groo The Wanderer]

Jawed is a sleaze for no one. Careful with your comments. Not wise to label those who you don't know.

Yup, I didn't mean to imply anything about him, I meant that this whole affair was an example of how NV is sleazy. I didn't mean anything about him personally, from what I have seen he is rather bright. Apologies for any misunderstanding.

-Charlie

 

[Groo The Wanderer]

http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/index.cfm?newsid=26107

CPU, GPU, and memory controller on one chip. Nvidia can't be happy about that.

Yup, low end and mid range, basically anywhere that you could sell an integrated chipset, is going integrated. Chipsets can't exist soon, much less will.

-Charlie

 

[Groo The Wanderer]

So wait, anything that includes a 9400 is now considered ION? I'm confused. More Nvidia renaming schemes?

Yup, and you know the exact moment when it happened. J-H tried to pull one over on the finance guys, they backhanded him publicly, and now NV is changing names to retroactively make things match up.

They do this ALL the time. I don't get it, it just makes them look really stupid, time and time again, but yet they persist.

Look at what it cost them with the crack of 'we will be all 55nm by the end of the quarter'. Firesale weeks ahead of the end of the Q, followed by a stuffed AIB channel. Marketshare went way up though, until it took a dive in Q4. They spin that one by the market tanking, but when things tank 25% for AMD, 25% for ATI, 25% for Intel, and 50+% for Nvidia, guess which one did worse than expected.

I have been saying this for a long time, all of last year, channels stuffed, AIB pissed, tempers flaring, and an impending crash. I wasn't shocked when it did. OK, the magnitude was impressive, but not the fact that they took a dive.

In Q1, if you look at the numbers, they gained marketshare unit wise. They also gained it by blowing out ~1M DX9 parts on the low low low end. In Q2, think they are going to have that 1M extra to sell at fire sale prices? What do you think that will do to marketshare? Add in Dell losses, add in a few others I am hearing about, and you have a BIG problem.

I fully expect them to announce rosy numbers on the surface, but if you look even slightly below, things are going to be very ugly. NV has used up all their tricks, used up the slack in the market, and burned their bridges. Think Wile E. Coyote that just ran off a cliff, furiously trying to run on air.

NV has nothing for Q4, they have no back to school part, they have no Win7 part, they have no Christmas part. If ATI has half a brain, they will leverage the only DX11 part on the market to shove NV out the door just about everywhere. I don't know if they will, but I sure as hell would.

People have laughed at what I predicted, but rarely do they go back and look. Even more rarely do they try and figure out why things happened the way they did.

-Charlie

 

[Groo The Wanderer]

About a year ago there was an interview on WSJ by Don Clark with Jen-Hsun who said each chip sold for around $20 and each recall cost the OEM around $600. Nvidia was planning to reimburse $200 of this cost to each OEM. Unfortunately cannot seem to search for articles beyond 3 months back on the WSJ site(thankyou very much mr murdoch) so cant check those numbers at the moment.

Also have i missed something: where is Acer? also Sony? Everyone else seems to be lining up...

I know Don personally, and have a fair understanding of his knowledge on the subject based on chats we have off and on at various events. The $200 per is post my HP story, and it likely went up for every OEM as the roaches kept scurrying out of the cabinet. By now, it wouldn't surprise me if NV was being asked to cover 100% for many things.

As for the missing OEMs, yeah, I know. Almost like it is everyone who used NV chips. I guess EVERY OEM must be incompetent, have worthless thermal engineers, and never read manuals. God, EVERY SINGLE ONE is incompetent, and Nvidia is the only competent one on the planet, just ask them. Ironically, those incompetent OEMs only assign their incompetent thermal engineers to work on Nvidia products, never ATI or Intel. Could this be a plot?

-Charlie

 

[Sound_Card]

Yup, I didn't mean to imply anything about him, I meant that this whole affair was an example of how NV is sleazy. I didn't mean anything about him personally, from what I have seen he is rather bright. Apologies for any misunderstanding.

-Charlie

Understood, I was thinking perhaps it may of been a confusion.

 

[trinibwoy]

People have laughed at what I predicted, but rarely do they go back and look. Even more rarely do they try and figure out why things happened the way they did.

-Charlie

Your readers would be much better served if your articles at the Inq were more similiar to your posts in this thread though. At least here you've provided a lot more substance to support your position and it certainly seems like you have a solid basis for your claims. So more of that and less blind green hatred will go a long way IMO. It's hard to appreciate the gravity of Nvidia's bad behavior when your message is clouded by all the emotional extras.

In terms of Nvidia's future, it's doubtful that their arrogance has any long term impact. Chipsets were going the way of the dodo regardless. Their future still relies most heavily on the quality of their products and their ability to enter (or create) new markets. Same goes for AMD - their successes are due to the strength of their products, not their tendency to play nice with the other kids.

 

[Jawed]

Yes, I'm aware that NVidia has been calling everything it can "Ion", it was doing so at the prior quarter's CC:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/119...nd-1-25-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

We announced Ion, a high performance GPU that also incorporates all system networking and IO functions into a single chip. Steve Jobst called it “an incredible chip.” Ion is at the core of every MAC book from the air to the pro. The Ion platform is now shipping or will be soon from virtually every major PC OEM.

I was stupidly assuming that people already realised that the Ion brand had been repurposed for some time.

Yes, it's just another bit of creativity as a result of the slow uptake of Ion for Atom. I honestly don't think the name matters, because we can still see that currently NVidia's chipsets are doing healthy business and will continue to grow (on Intel at least) before doomsday. It might only be 2-3 more quarters of growth, dunno.

Losing Intel chipsets (with the AMD buyout) put a pretty big dent in ATI revenues as far as I can tell. So NVidia had a while in the sun having taken over that gift...

Jawed

 

[Jawed]

Your readers would be much better served if your articles at the Inq were more similiar to your posts in this thread though.

It's a wonderful irony that Charlie's Inq articles are criticised like this when it's Jen/NVidia that uses the most extreme versions of all these tactics to polish the NVidia halo.

At least here you've provided a lot more substance to support your position and it certainly seems like you have a solid basis for your claims.

No, the substance is in his articles. Bumpgate has been extremely well-detailed. Chipset engineering, due to the 40nm fuck-up, is taking longer than it should, but then it'll be completely dead - ugh, unless they decide to go for one more spin on 32nm?

So more of that and less blind green hatred will go a long way IMO. It's hard to appreciate the gravity of Nvidia's bad behavior when your message is clouded by all the emotional extras.

So what were NVidia's tears over the price of Atom from Intel all about, with Jen practically crying in public whenever the subject has come up this last ~5 months? Do you think that was anything but emotional posturing? Good marketing to paint yourself as the underdog but fighting for consumer's rights and choice.

Jawed

 

[neliz]

So what were NVidia's tears over the price of Atom from Intel all about, with Jen practically crying in public whenever the subject has come up this last ~5 months? Do you think that was anything but emotional posturing? Good marketing to paint yourself as the underdog but fighting for consumer's rights and choice.

Jawed

Just marketing to get "Ion"+Isaiah in the cloud as a viable alternative and five times as fast as an Atom (I wonder where they strike up the better margins.) He does that for over a year already, comparing a GMA945 to a GTX280 and using that to prove that intel is crap (though the Lenove S12 has a smaller gap with the .. Gef..ION versus the GMA945.)

That's over a year of screaming, ranting and crying over Atom and in the end eating only a very small piece of that pie.

With the GeForce such a powerful brand, I wonder why it was changed to "ION Graphics" this week.

It's funny that they don't mention ION in their normal press disclaimer, Here's hoping for an ION GTX295!

Phil Coffman has a nice tidbit on "big chip and gross margins"

 

[trinibwoy]

No, the substance is in his articles. Bumpgate has been extremely well-detailed.

I must have missed those articles because most of them just curse Nvidia's arrogance and presage their demise. Or do you think Charlie has inside info that compelled him to predict AMD's utter domination of Nvidia in the upcoming DX11 faceoff? Bumpgate is just one feather in his cap.

So what were NVidia's tears over the price of Atom from Intel all about, with Jen practically crying in public whenever the subject has come up this last ~5 months? Do you think that was anything but emotional posturing? Good marketing to paint yourself as the underdog but fighting for consumer's rights and choice.

No different to AMD's tears over Intel's shenanigans. Are you saying JHH doesn't have a valid point? Though I don't get the comparison. Nvidia is trying to make money. Charlie is just on some sort of personal crusade. All I'm saying is that if he really wants more people to buy into what he's saying he needs to cut back on the irrelevant flak. Unless that isn't his goal.....

 

[Jawed]

Bumpgate is just one feather in his cap.

Yet you try to suggest that what he's posted in this thread on that subject represents information that isn't in his articles.

No different to AMD's tears over Intel's shenanigans.

Proven in 3 courts so far - doesn't seem like tears to me.

Are you saying JHH doesn't have a valid point?

What is JHH's point? Have you noticed how he doesn't actually have one?

All I'm saying is that if he really wants more people to buy into what he's saying he needs to cut back on the irrelevant flak. Unless that isn't his goal.....

And all I'm saying is that the information he's posted in this thread doesn't materially add to the articles that are there for you to read. The tone's different, agreed.

L'Inq has page impressions to sell. NVidia has other stuff to sell. Charlie's approach is mild in comparison with NVidia's, which is insidious beyond belief, not the bald-faced comedy-grief of Charlie. It's amazing you don't get that. They're cut from the same cloth, because most punters are stupid and need cajoling to pay any kind of attention.

Charlie's words might only be worth the paper they're printed on to punters, but right now that's more than a bricked laptop with NVidia is worth to some unfortunates.

The signs are NVidia knew these products were dicing with death because the materials science says so. It's fucking obvious from the materials science, in fact. That's Charlie's point. That means NVidia knowingly sold faulty products hoping that they'd fall out of warranty before the shit hit the fan. The only companies that'd give a toss about that would be those insurance companies that sell extended warranties.

Jawed

 

[Sxotty]

It's a wonderful irony that Charlie's Inq articles are criticised like this when it's Jen/NVidia that uses the most extreme versions of all these tactics to polish the NVidia halo.
Jawed

Nvidia is a business out to sell products. Charlie is supposedly a journalist. If he was out to sell AMD cards then all the emotional BS would make much greater sense.

 

[Entropy]

If I were to suggest something new for Charlie to sink his teeth in, it would be how Intel and Microsoft are "negotiating" with the industry to prevent ARM/linux netbooks from being produced.

 

[neliz]

Nvidia is a business out to sell products. Charlie is supposedly a journalist. If he was out to sell AMD cards then all the emotional BS would make much greater sense.

Charlie sells clicks, much like a Howard Stern. IT's Shock-Jock. Don't call him a journalist then, call him a reporter. If nVidia wanted to get rid of him they'd sue him for libel or defamation. Once side says he's not worth it, the other side says nVidia couldn't win. He'll get his stuff out there anyway and his stories are far more entertaining than digitimes.