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Jawed
Legend
Useful article with a summary of business unit share:
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/...nnounces_Unprecedented_Declines_in_Sales.html
Jawed
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/...nnounces_Unprecedented_Declines_in_Sales.html
Jawed
This is really bad. Bad enough that the 1000 job losses the inquirer leaked awhile back are on the table now 
If true, most likely announced in conjunction or just ahead of their Q4 results. Either that or they will need some kind of hail mary from dell, hp or a set of other second tier oems.
Comparing to Q3 makes it look a bit better than it is, normally Q4 is bigger ie last year i think Q4 was 8% higher. ie Q3 2009 was $897m so they should be reporting $970m this quarter which is still way down on Q4 last year of $1.2B. Say earnings come in at $500m and accounting for seasonality sales are at 51% of Q3 or worse compared to Q4 last year looking like 41%.
This is such a failure by the analysts. Reports were leaking left and right from TSMC and other suppliers about them cutting and cancelling orders and the sales partners were getting mutinous. Yet nobody seemed to put 2 + 2 together, the lowest earnings i could find were still estimating north of the $700m mark. One guy hinted at channel stuffing they did to make the Q3 results look good ie so they could say they were all 55nm, but nobody really bothered questioning them about this in the conference call.
From what i have heard the areas hit are the high end gpus, really any sales above $150 are miniscule to non existent, the low end gpus(somewhat countered by the new intel igp products) also the amd chipsets are really down. Mid range gpus are proportionally down in line with rest of the market. Not sure about the professional segment. Also a big question mark in mobile, is growing quite rapidly at the low end, whereas nvidias traditional sales have mostly been at the higher end units.
Anyway big question now is this a blip or or is this the new level for the next year or so?
If true, most likely announced in conjunction or just ahead of their Q4 results. Either that or they will need some kind of hail mary from dell, hp or a set of other second tier oems.Comparing to Q3 makes it look a bit better than it is, normally Q4 is bigger ie last year i think Q4 was 8% higher. ie Q3 2009 was $897m so they should be reporting $970m this quarter which is still way down on Q4 last year of $1.2B. Say earnings come in at $500m and accounting for seasonality sales are at 51% of Q3 or worse compared to Q4 last year looking like 41%.
This is such a failure by the analysts. Reports were leaking left and right from TSMC and other suppliers about them cutting and cancelling orders and the sales partners were getting mutinous. Yet nobody seemed to put 2 + 2 together, the lowest earnings i could find were still estimating north of the $700m mark. One guy hinted at channel stuffing they did to make the Q3 results look good ie so they could say they were all 55nm, but nobody really bothered questioning them about this in the conference call.
From what i have heard the areas hit are the high end gpus, really any sales above $150 are miniscule to non existent, the low end gpus(somewhat countered by the new intel igp products) also the amd chipsets are really down. Mid range gpus are proportionally down in line with rest of the market. Not sure about the professional segment. Also a big question mark in mobile, is growing quite rapidly at the low end, whereas nvidias traditional sales have mostly been at the higher end units.
Anyway big question now is this a blip or or is this the new level for the next year or so?
In the current environment, there's no way they'll get that. So yeah, looks like jobs are on the chopping block big-time; can't help but wonder what they'll be able to cut. They can't compromise on GT21x in the very short-term and they certainly can't do anything that might cause a GT300 delay. And they already cut plenty of MCP jobs in the last layoffs.This is really bad. Bad enough that the 1000 job losses the inquirer leaked awhile back are on the table now
I suspect they'll try to cut mostly longer-term projects, including things like early work on 28nm, arch revisions to G300, DMI and/or GT3xx IGPs, a few derivatives, etc. - and if they ever at any point considered doing anything on TSMC's 32G process instead of going straight to 28HP, then obviously that's out of the window right now. Presumably SG&A will also be affected quite a lot, and many non-critical projects will just be pushed back and understaffed, heh. Things like demo teams & devrel are probably at risk too. And Tegra/Tesla aren't going to escape from it this time around; in Tegra's case, I would suspect especially SW teams in India and elsewhere are most at risk rather than HW.
Here's hoping Charlie is wrong and GT216 isn't delayed; that chip is really exactly what they need right now, and it'd be truly catastrophic if it missed Back-to-School.
I'm willing to bet it has hit quite hard also; remember capital investments are going down the shitter worldwide, and car manufacturers were also one of their big customers there...
That actually made a lot of sense if you think about it now. why release GT212 when GT300 would be so close?
Because it would be the first to reach 40 nm, wouldn't it?
Possibly first nVidia product, but looks like ATI is getting first on this node too with RV740 and the possible RV790 if it exists (there was just report of RV740 & 790 engineering samples being out)
Yeah but for NVDA it would be (GT211) a great opportunity to test the new process, making it less likely for GT300 to fail its yeld/clock targets.
And how exactly did the 55nm G92+ help nvidia get the 55nm G200 out on time? ? ?
We don't exactly know that it didn't, but I remember 55 nm g92 and GT 200 were very close (1 month apart). As for GT212/300, maybe there's more time between the two, so as the GT212 shrink will prove usefull towards mastering 40 nm..
DegustatoR
Veteran
GT212 isn't NV's first 40nm chip.
DegustatoR
Veteran
GT216 or GT218 looks like more probable candidates.
GT214/215 was planned after GT212 probably.
But everything may change any day now.
GT214/215 was planned after GT212 probably.
But everything may change any day now.
Mintmaster
Veteran
Anyone else surprised that NVidia's stock didn't take a big hit after the announcement?
I guess the street was expecting this.
My theory is that most of the Teslas being sold by NV to financial institutions (and there are quite a few...) are being used to make money manipulating NV's own stock... Clearly, this financial crisis will only be over when they get redirected to manipulating banking stocks! heh...
Clearly, this financial crisis will only be over when they get redirected to manipulating banking stocks! heh...Silent_Buddha
Legend
Ouch if that linked article is true, next quarter could be significantly worse than 4th quarter was to Nvidia.
Squeezed on margins and large inventory buildup due to cancelled orders. It'd be interesting to find out what chips are actually being cancelled.
I'm wondering if Nvidia will just write off the excess inventory (ouch) or try to move them with a negative margin.
Regards,
SB
Squeezed on margins and large inventory buildup due to cancelled orders. It'd be interesting to find out what chips are actually being cancelled.
I'm wondering if Nvidia will just write off the excess inventory (ouch) or try to move them with a negative margin.
Regards,
SB
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