Eventually, even 2.5D substrate packaging capacity will meet a production equilibrium ...
Nvidia just went for a second compute die in their next flagship AI product ...
Bondrewd
Veteran
Yeah but not now.
Si spam is the meta now.
Again, not the limiting factor.
Sure but there is no indication AI and gaming are cannibalizing each other today. Once this AI gold rush is over HPC volumes will be even more minuscule vs the mass market consumer stuff. I think GeForce pricing will depend on the same thing it always has - competition.
Nobody said anything was going to happen "this instant"?
Why do defensive people ALWAYS act like the thing you claim is going to happen... has to be happening this instant and since it's not.. it invalidates your argument?
Bondrewd
Veteran
It depends on wafer price too very much so.
Yeah but it's the limiting factor.
Wafers are dime a dozen.
DegustatoR
Legend
I'm not saying that it's you specifically but this whole discourse stem from them in a sizeable part.
That only shows back to 2020... Let's look further back than even 2014, which I posted before...
And again.. you're going to quickly see how what is 10% of TSMC's capacity now... explodes in the very near future. You're basing your assumptions off of how the market is right now, but missing how these companies are going to change their business to accommodate the much more lucrative markets.
It is a scary drop compared to the times of 20+ million. You are right this is not some bubbles. But is it caused by Nvidia? Why not other factors like longer upgrade cycles? More people with integrated graphics? Many people are now content with laptops.
You haven’t really defended your argument as to why you think it’s going to happen. That’s what people are pushing back on.
Games that truly require a high-performance GPU are now much more formulaic? Oh, wow, another ****ing first-person shooter. Let me run out and spunk a months wages on a new GPU right now!
Or... not.
D
Deleted member 2197
Guest
Additional fodder ...
www.tomshardware.com
Desktop GPU Sales Lowest in Decades: Report
Nvidia continued to dominate in Q2 2023 amid inventory correction, says Jon Peddie Research.
I think it’s mostly due to stagnation in display resolution. If you’re playing at 1080p or 1440p you really don’t need to rush out and buy the latest and greatest. And when you’re ready to buy something you don’t need the $1000+ stuff.
I basically started this line of the thread. Also an Nvidia owner and haven't considered switching to AMD or intel. I'm waiting on the 5070/5080 to see pricing, performance etc. When I look at the gpu market where I live, the RTX 4080 is still about $1300 CAD, which is $300 more than I paid for my $3080 right as the crypto boom took off. Now we have an ai boom, and people that want to work on ai buy up the highest-end model gaming gpus. Nvidia never released a desktop 4050, or something really low-end. Maybe that'll change with 50 series.
The trend seems to be that prices are staying high, Nvidia is less interested in the mid to budget market. They can build bigger and more expensive gpus and sell them to professionals and ai people. The trend looks like it's towards lower volume and higher margins. We'll see if that continues but if there's going to be any price competition and sanity, I think it's going to have to come from intel and amd offering super competitive low to mid-range gpus, because Nvidia doesn't look interested anymore.
I like my 3080 a lot. I like the nivida feature set. I want to continue on with that. Just not sure if I'm going to get priced out, and when I see these stories about massive investments in gpus continuing for years, I just can't see how Nvidia could ever go back to selling affordable gaming gpus when they can focus on the x080 and x090 cards and just jack the prices as high as these companies are willing to pay.
There seems to be a clear downward trend irrespective of the crypto bubble. It’s probably caused by several factors, but I would be surprised if the consistently increasing prices weren’t a major contributor. Even crypto couldn’t outdo the sales enjoyed by the tremendous value GPUs from both vendors offered during the Pascal era.
I don’t know why some of you are so confident Nvidia wont raise prices again with Blackwell. They have significantly raised the cost of entry for various performance tiers with two out of the last three generations.
I don’t know why some of you are so confident Nvidia wont raise prices again with Blackwell. They have significantly raised the cost of entry for various performance tiers with two out of the last three generations.
I fully expect them to raise prices over time. Just not for the reasons stated in this thread.
Do you think the margins on the gpus have grown or stayed about the same since prices have gone up? Honest question. I don't know how much profit Nvidia turns on a 4080 or 4090 gpu and how that's change from maybe a 2080 or 2080ti. I would guess their margins have gone up and they're comfortable selling far fewer gpus with bigger margins as they still have a big market share lead over their competitors.
D
Deleted member 2197
Guest
I guess that argument could also apply to AMD as well (except market share position). Both AMD and Nvidia have recently lower the MSRP of the current GPU generation well below what was offered initially, suggesting both could have had much lower introductory prices. Is AMD comfortable selling fewer gpus at high prices at the expense of market share?
Intel's situation is understandable due mostly to growing pains but believe Battlemage will be reasonably priced and offer comparable performance targeting market share gains.
At the expense? AMD increased it's AIB market share last year by nearly 60 % from 12 to 19 %
Shipments of graphics add-in boards increase for third quarter in a row
Total AIB shipments increased by 32% this quarter from last year.
www.jonpeddie.com
D
Deleted member 2197
Guest
At the expense? AMD increased it's AIB market share last year by nearly 60 % from 12 to 19 %
View attachment 11188
Shipments of graphics add-in boards increase for third quarter in a row
Total AIB shipments increased by 32% this quarter from last year.
Sales likely could have been higher but for the introductory prices.
TopSpoiler
Regular
NVIDIA to Acquire GPU Orchestration Software Provider Run:ai | NVIDIA Blog
To help customers make more efficient use of their AI computing resources, NVIDIA today announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Run:ai, a Kubernetes-based workload management and orchestration software provider. Customer AI deployments are becoming increasingly complex...
blogs.nvidia.com
i think margins have gone up but not dramatically so. With no hard numbers to back that up I think there are a few reasons why that’s true.
- The product mix has shifted into higher margin products as capable APUs have stunted demand for garbage tier discrete.
- iHVs were encouraged to unilaterally raise prices after observing consumer behavior during crypto and covid supply shortages.
- Entry point for decent 1080p performance is $300-$400 now up from $200-$300 a few years ago which means the avg gamer is probably spending a bit more for the same experience in new games.
- This assumes volumes in the $1000+ segment are negligible in the overall picture.
