DaveBaumann said:
This comment has me absolutely baffled, especially in relation to consoles since they spend several years creating the standard and then you are left with only that standard until the next one comes out. With the console environment you are stuck for 5 years and then they often end up bashing out an entirely new standard for the next one, leaving developers another couple of years scratching their head trying to get the best out of it (Sony anyone?). One the otherhand every single cent you pay for the PC is going directly into the pockets of the silicon vendors – you also have more of a choice to tailor the PC towards your needs.
Bashing consoles proves what exactly?
Anyway. I agree that the PC is configurable to users' needs. That is one of its strengths as well as one of its weaknesses (too many different types of components to buy, frequent upgrades, every component has to be profitable). I am glad that I don't have to pay for a GeForce 6800 Ultra if all I need is an FX5200. But then, how would a "wired household" be any different? At least I wouldn't be paying for x86 legacy support and all the rest of the PC baggage.
DaveBaumann said:
As for standards taking multiple years to bash out, that may well be the case, but, using DirectX as an example, the standards that are being hammered out now aren’t actually possible now, on current silicon processes, with any level of performance – they are generally timed such that the new features are available in a timeframe when they can sensibly be implemented at the same, or higher performance than the previous iteration. Whats wrong with that?
You're right. In the case of DirectX, I admit that it generally is a forward looking process, an example being Global Illumination support in future iterations. But if I can use a comment you made as an example, about nVidia not being keen on implementing Unified Shader Model in hardware. nVidia's opposition to this must surely hold up progress in deciding the direction that GPU are taking? In fact, why have we not seen USM implemented already? Surely it isn't constrained by current transistor budgets? Speaking of transistor budgets, if the overall PC was more media friendly, then maybe we might actually be further down the road, in terms of graphics technology.
And why
have we seen the delay in DirectX 10? It's got nothing to do with my argument, I'm just curious.
DaveBaumann said:
I recently sat through a technology presentation with ATI and one of the things they were discussing is the latest high definition video formats and how they were going to resolve the quality and battery life issues for laptops with these new movie formats. Now, they know that the standards are either going to be Blue Ray or HD-DVD or both, but frankly they don’t care which it is since the platform is immaterial to the actual issues – they’ll be drives available for both on the PC pretty much as soon as either are available in consumer devices. What they are doing is looking at the issues of how to ensure that a laptop can play a HD movie at HD quality still on a battery charge, much as they can on current laptops. By the time HD players actually start hitting shelve with any great popularity these issues will more than likely be solved. This doesn’t look like its not a forward looking industry.
I don't dispute that the PC industry looks slightly ahead of itself
sometimes. In the case of HD formats, yes the PC is adapting to current consumer demand, HD content is an outside influence. It's not exactly indicative of the PC pushing the boundries of technology though is it? I also find it ironic that you use HD-DVD/Blu-ray as an example, as it was again consumer electronics companies that created these formats. Could that possibly be Sony and Co dictating terms to the PC industry? Surly not.
DaveBaumann said:
There hasn’t been a lot of competition or just that the rest has failed? If you believe there hasn’t been competition before how do you know how quick or slow the the PC industry will adapt in the face of competition?
All I'm saying is there hasn't been much and few were particlurly viable. Some of the competition failed due to their own shortcomings, while some of the competition failed because it is perhaps far too ambitious to try and compete with the likes of the PC with its ubiquitous nature and its all powerful Dictator, Microsoft. Anyway, why should the PC industry have to always be
reactive to competition? If the PC industry was
proactive enough, there would never have been a need for that competition to arise in the first place.
DaveBaumann said:
Its is Apples inability, or lack of desire, to tackle the PC component vendors within the industry on such fronts – it’s the vendors and drivers of the PC industry that we’re really talking about when we’re talking about the future of the platform.
And who is Apple to confront the might of Microsoft? You mess with the component vendors, you mess with Microsoft, essentially.
DaveBaumann said:
This is the case wherever you go – look at the mess of the DVD specifications, now they really took years to hammer out and they they are full of specification wholes (the spec didn’t even decide on a single method of lay changing!) and we have a whole litany of license fees going from one vendor to the next. Are you happy that every disk has a Dolby soundtrack on there, whether its needed or not, freezing out some DTS translations, and that every disk is paying Dolby some IP?
Yes, there will always be
some delays, that's obvious for anything other than strictly closed system. In the case of the DVD market, it's really quite similar to the PC industry, except it's worse because there is no one company that has any real overall influence. At least though, they only had one format to fight over, rather than countless potentially incompatible components that will be fought over until forever.
No I most certainly am not happy that we pay for every disc to have DD encoding when that may not be required. For me personally, It is even more of an issue considering my tendancy towards DTS encoding, which is not so commonly available. But the end result is no different from the PC industry, where Microsoft's dominance and anti-competition nature mean that consumers essentially pay for features in their OS that they may not need or want. It's not like the PC industry is 100% free from licence fees either. It may seem that I'm conceding your point here, but in fact I think the two industries are too similar to compare. It was a bad example IMO.
DaveBaumann said:
When you start looking at it from the consumer direction things are no different, especially when you have consortiums driving the groups and then competing consortiums trying to get the better standard (look at the HD Video format I mentioned earlier).
Such "format wars" occur relatively infrequently and again, it is too open of a market to use it a comparison against the PC industry.
DaveBaumann said:
In fact, frankly it can be worse in these scenarios since you have multiple vendors trying to compete in the same grounds; at least with PC’s there are actually only a few competing groups within each sector so there can actually be less infighting and each of the different areas generally trying to pull in the similar direction.
Pulling in the same direction or towing the same line? If it wasn't for Microsoft, I imagine that the entire PC industry would be brought to its knees. Even with Microsoft in control, The spectre of incompatability still rears its ugly head. Anyway, as we approach the time of true ubiquitous computing, we may find that consumer electronics companies adapt more quickly due to their simpler "common interest". They may even adopt a universal standard such as Cell and rely on true product differentiation to sell their products. There is not a lot of room for product differentiation in the PC industry other than a scale of general performance. Again we have Microsoft to thank for that.
DaveBaumann said:
PC vendors can equally be very flexible in the technologies that they support – they just make the platform scalable enough to support the general needs of future technology; again using the HD Video format the actual technology settled on, be it one or both, is immaterial to the companies in the industry as, if they have a high enough bandwidth platform already in place, they can support either.
Yeah the platform is scalable, but only in the short term. I will have eventually replaced every component in my PC within a relatively short space of time. In spite of the PC industries apparent obsession with backwards compatability over a multitude of products, I still find that the Socket 370 motherboard that I bought becomes pretty useless pretty soon. The various industries that we have mentioned all share this in common, but it is the PC industry that does it most inefficiantly in terms of technological advancement. If you want to talk about scalable, I suggest you look no further than something like Cell, which is truly dynamic and universal yet is not anchored to a pre-media-revolution age.
The PC is like some kind of ancient old castle upon which generation after generation of owners keep adding bits and pieces, in a desperate attempt to adapt it to their modern needs. Contrast this to a modern modular kitset home built from scratch. It might not have a lot of character, but at least it sure is efficient.
DaveBaumann said:
But we’re not talking about that, we’re talking about a closed standard driven by a few vendors and manufacturing companies with a vision to a widescale devices utilisation – in that scenario you can either end up with the situation of the other consumer vendors having to pay large IP fees to license the technology or they’ll end up fighting both other CE vendors as well as the PC industry.
Yes that is what this is all about. However, in the case of Cell for example, the licencing fees may not be that large, if any at all. Once Sony and Toshiba have profited from Cell for a while, perhaps even denting the PC space, STI can openly licence the technology to anyone who wants it. The investment will have been recouped by then and all the companies can focus on what is important to them, which is making great products. I have a feeling that in the future, CE companies will be worrying more about facing off against the PC than fighting amongst themselves. You mention paying huge IP fees? Remind me again how much money Sony or Philips make from the Compact Disc?
All that may not even be necessary if STI becomes the next Wintel. If this happens, then all companies will be unified in the same way that the PC is today. The irony of these scenarios is ofcourse that one unweildy super organism will be replaced by another one. But it might be worth it to finally get rid of x86.
As for the other scenario of companies fighting each other. IMO, in the future, we are likely to see two, at most three, major competing architectures. Cell will be one of these. This scenario brings together the best elements of the open vs closed platforms. The architectures can be easily changed and controlled because they are closed, but yet competition between architectures will force rapid technological improvement, which wouldn't happen so much in an entirely universal closed platform.
I get the impression that you are taking the side of the PC as we rapidly grow towards convergance (collision?) of the PC and consumer electronics industries. For my own reasons, I take the opposite side in this coming war.
But in the end, I guess it will be the consumer who ultimately decides the outcome and that is, ofcourse, the way it should be.