Nvidia BigK GK110 Kepler Speculation Thread

[Silent_Buddha]

I stilll remember when NV used to sell 500mm2 dies for dirt cheap. It must be a dream come true for them to be actually able to sell such a huge chip and command a huge price.

That was only an aberration due to the aggressive pricing by AMD for the 4870 which led to the price war. Prior to that happening the high end Nvidia consumer GPU's were already at 650 USD (Geforce GTX 280). There was also the limited run press edition of the 7800 that had an MSRP of 999 USD and once it sold out in online stores, Nvidia never replenished the supply.

Prices for both AMD and Nvidia have been creeping back up to their pre-4xxx/GTX 2xx price war levels.

Regards,
SB

 

[jimbo75]

I stilll remember when NV used to sell 500mm2 dies for dirt cheap. It must be a dream come true for them to be actually able to sell such a huge chip and command a huge price.

The amount of people willing to spend $900 on a gpu is vanishingly small. They might as well make it $2k considering the market they are aiming at believes that price and quality are directly linked.

 

[silent_guy]

The amount of people willing to spend $900 on a gpu is vanishingly small.

As a % of a 6B population? Definitely.

But, say, 500K is still a nice chunk. Especially if you have the market all for yourself.

They might as well make it $2k considering the market they are aiming at believes that price and quality are directly linked.

Nope.

+80% price for +60% perf gain is still somewhat reasonable. Your numbers are not.

 

[3dcgi]

That said, 10000 units sounds like a launch quantity instead of a production life time volume, even for a boutique product. The world is a big place with lots of rich people.

Agreed.

 

[jimbo75]

As a % of a 6B population? Definitely.

But, say, 500K is still a nice chunk. Especially if you have the market all for yourself.

Nope.

+80% price for +60% perf gain is still somewhat reasonable. Your numbers are not.

This reminds me of this one time...2 weeks ago...when you were telling me my Nvidia Q4 numbers weren't reasonable as well.

Just try to look at it logically. If there was a viable and profitable market for a $900 consumer card then AMD would be releasing a card in that space. It doesn't get much simpler than that.

 

[silent_guy]

This reminds me of this one time...2 weeks ago...when you were telling me my Nvidia Q4 numbers weren't reasonable as well.

You claimed some amount of profit above $100M, or 15%+ in after tax profit was mediocre. I still think that's not reasonable.

Just try to look at it logically. If there was a viable and profitable market for a $900 consumer card then AMD would be releasing a card in that space. It doesn't get much simpler than that.

By that brilliant piece of logic, Nvidia wouldn't release such a card either.

 

[AlphaWolf]

By that brilliant piece of logic, Nvidia wouldn't release such a card either.

And the fact that it has taken them this long to bring it to consumers tells you what?

It's not going to sell 500k units is what it tells me.

 

[Homeles]

500K was clearly a rhetorical figure.

 

[silent_guy]

And the fact that it has taken them this long to bring it to consumers tells you what?

I can think of a whole couple of reasons.

They first needed to fill orders for Titan? They waited for 28nm process to mature to the point where it could be made most profitably? They waited until their existing line started to weaken? They didn't expect AMD to improve 7970 performance and needed something to get back on top in single GPU performance? They use this as a way to drum up visibility while waiting for the upcoming refreshes?

What do you think?

It's not going to sell 500k units is what it tells me.

It doesn't have to. It could be 500K, it can be 200K. Hell, even if it's 100K, you're still looking at a gross revenue just south of a $100M, a cool 1/3rd of AMD's quarterly GPU revenue. To think that there's a market of only 10K is stupid. I'd never pay $800 for a GPU because I don't play games, but the perf/$ ratio is not outrageously out of whack compared to other hi-end GPUs and less than the price of a decent notebook. I didn't think twice about putting down $2500 for a 2880x1800 resolution laptop because I love looking at a great screen. If I were truly serious about gaming I'd have no problem with $800 for the best of the best.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Your math is a bit off, Nvidia sells silicon, not graphics cards. 100k might still be optimistic.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

In the case of GTX 690 and probably Titan nVidia is actually manufacturing the cards itself and selling them assembled, at least that's how I've understood it. I also think that 100k for Titan is quite optimistic. It's a pity that we never get actual numbers what each model has sold. I would love to know how many for example the GTX 580 sold in its lifetime.

 

[AlphaWolf]

In the case of GTX 690 and probably Titan nVidia is actually manufacturing the cards itself and selling them assembled, at least that's how I've understood it. I also think that 100k for Titan is quite optimistic. It's a pity that we never get actual numbers what each model has sold. I would love to know how many for example the GTX 580 sold in its lifetime.

Oh did not know that, but NVIDIA does like to piss off their partners from time to time. Do you know who is doing assembly for them?

 

[Ailuros]

I'm sure NV is hoping that a GK114(204) can draw somewhat of parity with Curacao, this way they can continue to dribble out 800-1000$ GK110 Titan cards for uber enthusiasts and still claim fastest GPU. Depending on how good AMD's Curacao is will dictate how far NV's hand is forced on GK110 quantities and pricing.

I stilll remember when NV used to sell 500mm2 dies for dirt cheap. It must be a dream come true for them to be actually able to sell such a huge chip and command a huge price.

How dirt cheap was the GeForce2 Ultra in the past exactly? NV's high end GPUs got only cheaper when AMD put some serious price pressure on them starting with the RV670.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Oh did not know that, but NVIDIA does like to piss off their partners from time to time. Do you know who is doing assembly for them?

Unfortunately I don't know. Perhaps they can do something like this in house. The volumes are quite low. I do think they only use their partners for distribution and support with the GTX 690 though and I expect the Titan to be similar, but I'm not able to dig any solid information on any of that. I'm also under the assumption that at least sometimes nVidia has built the reference cards for the initial launch of a product.

 

[dbz]

Oh did not know that, but NVIDIA does like to piss off their partners from time to time. Do you know who is doing assembly for them?

Probably Foxconn (Hon Hai), but Nvidia have a few other OEMs onboard. Not sure about who builds what SKUs, but Foxconn would seem likely, although there are a few others around ( Haostar for example).

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I'm also under the assumption that at least sometimes nVidia has built the reference cards for the initial launch of a product.

Both Nvidia and AMD do this, at least with the cards in the upper performance range. Not sure about the lower end cards. It's why all the AIB vendor cards are basically the same at launch.

Regards,
SB

 

[silent_guy]

Perhaps they can do something like this in house. The volumes are quite low.

There is just no way they do this in house. As in: Nvidia employees somewhere in the world solder the thing together (which is 99% of the assembly work in terms of cost and effort.)

Even if you sell a product ready made to your customers (=distributors), you're still going to contract this out. It makes no sense at all to equip yourself with the necessary tools for precision manufacturing and there are plenty of companies in Shenzhen who are more than willing to do it for you for smaller volumes. That's even the case for volumes that are in the tens or hundreds.

 

[silent_guy]

Both Nvidia and AMD do this, at least with the cards in the upper performance range. Not sure about the lower end cards. It's why all the AIB vendor cards are basically the same at launch.

In that case, Nvidia and AMD still have the card built for them. Which is a big difference to 'built it themselves'.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if, say, eVGA shares the same production line with other vendors to save on costs.

 

[UniversalTruth]

1K €. Congratulations. I don't think they will sell a lot of these.

http://www.2compute.net/Asus/GTXTITAN-6GD5.htm

http://webshop.eurosys.be/en/compon...xtitan-6gb-graphics-card-gtxtitan6gd5-p387473

 

[xDxD]

1K €. Congratulations. I don't think they will sell a lot of these.

http://www.2compute.net/Asus/GTXTITAN-6GD5.htm

http://webshop.eurosys.be/en/compon...xtitan-6gb-graphics-card-gtxtitan6gd5-p387473

mmm...i ask myself, better to sell two $ 500 vgas or one at $ 1000?