NPD October 2007

With the initial reports from Japan and the US it would seem to be in danger of being a money loser despite being critically received by the press. While I admit R&C is has not been mario or halo in the past it has been a solid franchise and I don't think anyone was expecting it to debut at #1 on the chart, but I think even those with subdued expectations were thinking it would crack 100k in the US for its debut. 74,474 is significantly shy of that.

 

This thread has completely degenerated. "UC won't move systems because it's unknown" - yeah, like Halo was known before Halo 1 or Tomb Raider or GTA before their initial releases. Idle speculation about the future based solely on an emotional investment for or against a game system is, well, amazingly mind numbing and no more useful than debating the value of Pi since it will unfold how it unfolds regardless of how Boywars XXXIV concludes.

 

Well MS marketed the hell out of the first halo, do you really expect that for uncharted? I haven't seen ads for it yet.

 

I personally expected to at least break into the top 10.

 

Halo 1 is not unknown. It is the 4th game after Marathon 1-3. The Mac folks already know about it for a couple of years. I bought the original Xbox partly because of it.

But as to Mize's main point, I tend to agree. That's why I generally shy away from sales discussion topics. But the forum threads have been relatively thin lately.

 

percentage change

wii 100,200 -> 129,750 = +29% ( average per week )
xb360 105,560 -> 91,500 = -13%
ps3 23,800 ->30250 = +27%

im expecting in december the wii to sell the least of the 3 consoles

 

Halo was known before MS ever bought Bungie. Why do you think that MS bought Bungie and brought Halo to the Xbox? Halo was personally announced by Steve Jobs as coming to the Mac during one of their expos prior to the MS's purchase.

I never heard Tomb Raider described as a system mover. How many Playstation were sold because of GTA1 and GTA2, the 2D games that appear before GTA3?

Maybe you have some emotional investment as this discussion has carried on so far without the denigrating of anyone's character until your post. If you don't like the idle speculation then move on as it happens here all the time.

 

I dont think UC will move systems. Each Sony exclusive so far has sold reasonably to poorly. (Heavenly Sword, etc). I already hear anecdotals from Gamestop employees at GAF that UC is getting the same few pre-orders as R&C.

The game I believe can move systems for Sony is Killzone 2. But this is just opinion and I could be wrong about UC.

I honestly wonder if Sony wouldn't be better off focusing on FPS. Many seem to take pride in differentiating PS3 as being less of a FPS box than 360, and that's fine, but are these non FPS titles really selling...Seems like the most legs title Sony has is Resistance..

 

I think Sony has already corrected their approach to selling the PS3. There current commercials and PR are a far cry from the its approach from last holiday.

I mean the current 40Gb commerials with the morphing CG of the PS3 are pretty cool and probably the best TV marketing by any console manufacturer so far. The crying baby doll spooked me out more than made me want to buy a PS3.

I think once the PS3 attract more traditional consumers and release more high profile games then software sales will get better and titles that should perform will perform.

 

Gears of War isnt FPS yet it sold millions and had lots of preorders. Mass effect is expected to do the same.

The problem isnt the genre. It is the hype behind the games.

HS was also shot down by bad underrated reviews

 

You do know that all those graphs that you linked kind of dispute your last statement.

 

He might be right, only because the Wii may be supply constrained. Depends how many consoles Nintendo has stockpiled to be shipped during November and December. Sounds like they might have a lot, but MS and Sony will probably have more consoles available.

 

Yeah, but we already heard from Nintendo they expect to have a great holiday season. Historically, a popular console early in its life can expect to move between ~2.5-3.5 million consoles in the US over the holiday. I sure Nintendo is smart enough to stock pile enough to cover enough sales to maintain its position.

 

We'll see. It's hard to stockpile when you're selling so many month to month. I think they'll sell every unit they can make available, and in the end, they'll have a great Christmas. All three consoles should have great holiday sales. I see the 360 most likely coming out with the most sales and the PS3 or Wii coming in 2nd, depending on how many Wiis are available. I'm just guessing, of course.

 

Yet I'd wager you'll see Assassin's Creed go on to terrific sales despite some even worse reviews.

The problem is Sony's 'hype' seems to exist mainly on the internet, and not in the minds of mainstream consumers.

 

Heavenly Sword was released exclusively on PS3. Every game on the PS3 sells low and it will be interesting to see how well it sells on the PS3.

People were expecting to be the equivalent of Gears of War in its genre. The 2005 E3 video raised the bar so much for the gameplay, visuals, interactivity and engagement that the reviews even at 8.0 or 8.5 sounded more dissapointing. Especially the 7s. Average press avarege of HS was raised a lot by PS sites and magazines that few people cared to visit.

Assassin's Creed on the other hand even with some dissapointing scores it still attracts because the interest of the concept remains high.

I also agree with your last sentence.

 

Nah, not me. I have a 8800GTS/Q6600 rig, PS3 and Wii and am trying to decide on Elite vs. Halo 360 right now (though leery about high failure rate)...I just got blasted as an xb360 fan on the CoD forums for proving the low res textures on the ps3 version last week. I consider myself pretty objective and pretty content to get 3-4 hours per week to game with whatever.

I just get frustrated by any form of politics when it comes to toys. I think it's a leftover from hanging out with lawyer-type friends who would debate facts as though they could change them with a persuasive enough argument

 

i think a big problem is a lot of PS3 games are not worth buying at 50-60 a pop when most of their good games can be played, beaten and enjoyed at a 2 dollar rental. and once beaten there really isnt any incentive to keep it around. almost all the games Ive played on my ps3 Ive rented, played, beaten, enjoyed and returned with no real want to go back and replay them, so it dosent justify a 50-60 purchase to me.

i have more games on my Wii then on my ps3 which is just warhawk at the moment becuase of the headset and its replayability due to online. i have 3 titles for WII not including play/sports and 15 games for 360 with plans on other titles. (kid and wife influence alot of my purchases)

i find my self wanting to buy a ps3 game, then something for another system comes out thats more desirable and i talk my self into saving some cash and going with a ps3 rental. example was thinking of buying uncharted but was swayed away by mass effect because i was lead to beleive mass effect will take longer then a 4 day rental so my money is going to mass effect and mario galaxy(kid and wife so its a must buy)

 

Halo has been bashed by the press after E3 for a lackluster presentation, and hte game hasn't sold well at first. Word of mouth has started to boost up both the game's sales - and it moved consoles in great numbers, too. It kept selling at 50-100K per month years after its release.

 

As for Ratchet's sales...
A current AAA title may cost somewhere between 15 and 30 million dollars to make. That's just development, and income has to cover retailer profits, publisher expenses (marketing, manufacturing, logistics), their profits, and if it's not first party, IHV licence fees.

I'm not entirely sure about these individual costs, but it's safe to assume $5 for manufacturing and logistics, at least $5 for the retailer, and marketing costs can change between 50-200% of the game's budget. Licence costs are $4-10 as far as I know.

At an average of $55, selling 500,000 units will make $27,500,000. Even a first party AAA title will probably not break even with these sales.

Ratchet has sold about 100K in the US and Japan, that's at most $4.5-5 million for Sony. They're very, very far from making a profit on that game.