NPD November 2010

[KKRT]

From PR's

- Three PS3 games ranked in the top ten software skus for the month, including Call of Duty: Black Opps, Assassin's Creed:Brotherhood, Gran Turismo 5

"We are now reporting sales at the total platform level instead of the SKU level but if we were reporting the top 10 SKU's, Halo: Reach would have been #10 this month."

During the month of November, four of the top ten console game titles were for Xbox 360 including: Call of Duty: Black Ops, Fable III, Assassin’s Creed Brotherhood, and Halo:

So top single SKU's is most likely:

1)* [360] Call of Duty Black Ops
2)* [PS3] Call fo Duty Black Ops
3) [Wii] Just Dance 2
4) [360] Fable III
5) [360] Assassin's Creed Brotherhood
6) [PS3] Assassin's Creed Brotherhood
7) [Wii] Donkey Kong Country Returns
8) [PS3] Gran Turismo 5
9) [Wii] Wii Fit Plus
10)* [360] Halo Reach
11)* [360] Dance Central

* confirmed

 

[AlphaWolf]

From PR's




So top single SKU's is most likely:

1)* [360] Call of Duty Black Ops
2)* [PS3] Call fo Duty Black Ops
3) [Wii] Just Dance 2
4) [360] Fable III
5) [360] Assassin's Creed Brotherhood
6) [PS3] Assassin's Creed Brotherhood
7) [Wii] Donkey Kong Country Returns
8) [PS3] Gran Turismo 5
9) [Wii] Wii Fit Plus
10)* [360] Halo Reach
11)* [360] Dance Central

* confirmed

Doubt AC would fall that low, might even stay as high as 3rd.

 

[KKRT]

Doubt AC would fall that low, might even stay as high as 3rd.

In these quote

During the month of November, four of the top ten console game titles were for Xbox 360 including: Call of Duty: Black Ops, Fable III, Assassin’s Creed Brotherhood, and Halo:Reach

Microsoft put Fable before AC:B and we know that Reach is on 10, so they probably sorted them by sales.
That same with Sony's PR - COD first, AC:B second, GT 5 third - also indicates sorting by sales.

Ok we've got numbers
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (combined platforms) -- 1.14MM
Donkey Kong Country Returns -- 430.5K
Gran Turismo 5 -- 400K

 

[AlphaWolf]

In these quote

Microsoft put Fable before AC:B and we know that Reach is on 10, so they probably sorted them by sales.
That same with Sony's PR - COD first, AC:B second, GT 5 third - also indicates sorting by sales.

Ok we've got numbers
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (combined platforms) -- 1.14MM
Donkey Kong Country Returns -- 430.5K
Gran Turismo 5 -- 400K

wow didn't expect Brotherhood to sell worse than the previous ones considering more positive reviews.

 

[Tap In]

1.33 million 360

Last year: 819,500

holy smokes Kinect and Slim, match made in heaven

 

[androvsky]

I think we are seeing what a proper $199 Xbox can do now. The 4GB Xbox is a very decent proposition, and I wouldn't be surprised if more 4GBs were sold this month than 250GBs. In the past the Arcade option has been awful and it required the user to buy an expensive HDD to make full use of the console, but this one doesn't and the casuals can buy in now at a low pricepoint and use all of the features. It really is a great console! Well done to Microsoft!

Yeah, I'm inclined to think that having a decent, usable Arcade model is doing a lot more for MS than Kinect is. Obviously, I won't know until Gamasutra releases the average selling price in their analysis. Being the preferred platform for one of the biggest game releases in history probably doesn't hurt either.

The unfortunate thing is Sony can't follow suit with their own Arcade, even with a bigger chunk of flash. They've encouraged developers to use the hard drive as cache, so the PS3 is stuck with either a regular hard drive or an SSD that can handle all the writes.

 

[TheChefO]

Aside from that , i'm sure there is a portion of the user base who is ready to move on.

While I agree some users might be ready to upgrade, I don't know where they would move onto aside from the pc. It's not as though the ps3 has a library full of superior software to "upgrade" to.

In fact, one might be a bit disappointed in their favorite multiplat xb360 titles on ps3...

As for price, at this point I expect MS to match any price Sony positions ps3 with a match on hdd size and hold the advantage in offering a hdd-less sku.

As you said, BR is an advantage, but one that is largely a non-issue for most people given the low price of a BR player these days.


Interesting thing is from what I know, the BOM on xb360 should continue to be less than ps3.

-one 128b bus vs two in ps3
-smaller gpu+cpu die size
-no BR drive
-no hdd needed for "arcade" unit

I'm sure neither one wants to get into a price war at this point, but MS is more than capable to match if Sony wants to go that route.


Can't wait to see what December sales look like!

 

[patsu]

As you said, BR is an advantage, but one that is largely a non-issue for most people given the low price of a BR player these days.

From a per-unit PS3 sales perspective, Blu-ray is an "expensive" differentiator.

From a business perspective, Blu-ray provides an additional income stream for Sony. This is true even if consumers buy standalone Blu-ray players from other manufacturers.

If we accept the scenario where MS will price match or even undercut Sony no matter what happens (MS has more cash in the bank), Sony will still face pricing pressure from MS without Blu-ray.

In the long run, it depends on how well Sony executes, and whether the first parties can deliver compelling content. Sony has never been good at offering price competitive products. They need to learn how to make software with better UI too. ;-)

 

[BRiT]

360 was #1 selling console this year before kinect launched. "Kicking life back" isn't an appropriate description.

So how do you describe selling an extra 1 Million consoles month over month?

 

[DonaldDuck]

Amazing sales. I didn´t believe 360 could climb so high.

Just in perspective, sales numbers of the big three in NPD november:

Year: 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010
Wii: 1020 - 2040 - 1260 - 1270
360: 747- 836 -819 - 1370
PS3: 414 - 378 - 710 - 530

Some thougths:
- AMAZING numbers for 360. Even the price reduction in 2009 wasn´t so effective.
- I wonder how many CoD bundles were sold.
- Wii digs in and the Nov numbers are good.
- PS3 sales are good, just surpassed in Nov 2009, but the contrast with the other platforms is stunning.


The Kinect-CoD deals have stealed the show, obviously. It´s strange the absence of Kinect games in software sales, nevertheless.

I really wonder if the main reason behind the amazing 360 sales are CoD bundles or Kinect arcades.

In the software side, GT5 sales are higher than I expected in USA, but the point is that are just below JPN sales.

The last quarter shipments are going to be really interesting. Last quarter Sony´s numbers were 500k higher than 360, but with a difference just of 800k in NOV NPD the tide may change.

Just as a reference, sales in JPN for PS3 were below 200k in Nov. UE just can´t help enough to close the gap.

And, as a final thought, last year sales for PS3 were higher than 360´s in Dec, but it´s obvious that 360 has the momentum. I somewhat expect a lower gap in DEC, but who knows.

PS3 needs a price cut, and needs it now.

 

[AlphaWolf]

So how do you describe selling an extra 1 Million consoles month over month?

Christmas? November sales are always a huge jump over october, this year admittedly more so, no doubt because of Kinect. However, "kick back to life" suggests they were dying, hardly an appropriate description of 2010 xbox360 sales which has been their best year even before november.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

So how do you describe selling an extra 1 Million consoles month over month?

Well November always get's a big boost, not this big though and yes it's clear that Kinect gave a big boost, but "kicking life back" implies that it was dead or doing badly before. 360 has been selling the most for a while now in NA.

edit: I quess I just copypasted AlphaWolf

 

[AlphaWolf]

- I wonder how many CoD bundles were sold.

Didn't know there was a CoD bundle this year. What was in the box?

 

[DonaldDuck]

Didn't know there was a CoD bundle this year. What was in the box?

There wasn´t one? Other years the game has been bundled, I supposed than this year was the same thing.

CoD 8 millions is simply beyond believe... a 70-30% difference between versions just makes the stunning 5-6M mark... and this is a bunch of sales, no doubt.

The interesting thing here is it Kinect helps 360 in Dec too as it seems has helped in Nov and (with a bigger scope) what happens with it in Europe.

The point here is that Kinect has transformed 360 in USA at least in a Wii-like gift, surpassing its numbers as a holiday product. If the answer in UE is not so warm then the situation can return to "usual" levels (PS3 reducing the gap) in a few months, if not, then 360 has really stealed not only the show, but even the generation sunset?

And, being honest, PS3 has good numbers... but in another league.

That´s the type of thing that keeps PS3 down no matter what happen in other countries... OK, is just 500k more than expected (Morgan and others made their guess a coupe of days before)... but what a difference it makes in just a month.

Mixing what we know now for JPN (the only place with detailed sales reports) the combined numbers throw a difference in Nov of 640k.

The chance for PS3 of closing the gap WW is being just near enough in USA and use their advantage in JPN and UE to increase the units sold. But if Kinect makes 360 a Wii-like product in USA the "competition" (just let me use the word) is over.

Nevertheless, PS3 has been very responsive with discounts in price, but the hot spot now is not 250 but 200... it´s fairly obvious that Arcade´s are really powerful now, with WiFi support and the Flash memory.

Any ideas about SKU sales? How many arcades (Kinect-bundled or not) have been sold?

And the last question: If the astonishing 360 sales are related with CoD, and Kinect is not the key for the increase in sales, isn´t a bad thing for MS? The point is that MS seems to be really confident in Kinect to steal the leadership. If Kinect bombs in the long term (6-8 monts, just before next Christmas) this could be something like a last ride... but who knows.

Next year is going to be really surprising with XTS sales. There are few exclusives, but the multiplatforms titles have plenty of FPS (Crysis, Bulletstorm) and for sure they will improve the 360 sales. Killzone and other exclusive titles are going to have a bad day facing them.

 

[AlphaWolf]

There wasn´t one? Other years the game has been bundled, I supposed than this year was the same thing.

The way you wrote it I thought you knew there was one. It's possible there was and I just didn't see it, I've seen several different bundles this year, none of them CoD. The 2 different kinect bundles, the halo reach bundle, a holiday bundle with alan wake and forza3.

 

[TheChefO]

In the long run, it depends on how well Sony executes, and whether the first parties can deliver compelling content. Sony has never been good at offering price competitive products. They need to learn how to make software with better UI too. ;-)

I agree Sony would need to internally produce a killer app to draw marketshare away from MS at this point. Something as revolutionary as GTA was on ps2. I don't think graphics will be able to pull it ahead this gen unlike last gen.

The shock and awe that GT3 was able to provide to potential consumers last gen is long gone this gen. I don't expect GT5 sales to mirror gt3 for that reason. GT3 was able to draw in a lot of people just for how shockingly realistic and beautiful the game was in comparison to everything else at the time so people not even interested in a driving game were drawn to ps2 and gt3. This gen, gt5 is a pretty game, but nowhere near pretty enough to fully distance itself from the competition.

Regarding Sony pricing, I disagree.

Ps2 quickly dropped price to $200. 18 months after launch in fact. This gen they are squeezed largely by the BOM which was forced largely by BR which also forced a HDD to keep load times reasonable.

Still surprised to see them doing so well everywhere else in the world.

A lot of anti-MS sentiment still around the world I suppose.

 

[KongRudi]

11 titles in Top 10 software?
CoD:BO is killing the competition tough..
Ironically it's mostly Activision who close their studios. CoD seems like a pretty solid egg-basket tough.

I got Assasins Creed: Brooderhood, and waiting for GT5 in mail, of those titles in the NPD there.. :-/
I don't like this trend with yearly release in the franchises, since I think it's too often to get games,
I felt pretty burnt out on AC:B pretty quickly, it's fun and good, but I feel like it's just a few month ago I played AC2.. :-/

Not a single new IP in the top 10 software this month either..
It's like the 4 month in a row with only sequels in top 10, Red Dead Redemption were July(?). :-/
Only
Best month with new IP's in top 11 this month were Februar with Heavy Rain, and 2 SKU's with Dante's Inferno.
It's kind of depressing reading the NPD's now after they've ruinned it. :-/
Can't figure anything out..

 

[TheChefO]

PS3 needs a price cut, and needs it now.

I disagree.

Sony is slightly profitable on ps3 hardware at this point. Slashing prices likely won't push sales ahead of xb360 in the states unless they undercut xb360 which I don't see MS letting them do. Thus it would be losing profits for roughly no gain.

There are enough ps3 units out there to draw in sufficient dev support which is all Sony needed. Now their priority is profit. Unless sales slow to a crawl, there is no reason to cut profits at this point.

 

[DonaldDuck]

The dev support is granted at this point for PS3. The critical moment happened from my point of view in 2007, but the price cut made the hardware increase its sales and the possibility of being a dead platform vanished.

The killer application is not clear at this point. Graphically speaking, the games of PS3 are really competitive (exclusives from first-second party), so the problem is not there. The "quality" of the games itself is not enough to recruit people en masse... Uncharted and Mass Effect 2 were titles of extremely high scores than sold just ok, or "well, thanks", far from the insanity generated by Reach, CoD, and the like.

If you take a look at the lineup from Sony next year is really impressive in quantity -and probably quality- but it´s that enough? I bet no, just previous experience tell us that -at least in USA- the mass effect (mmm) is the pair (FPS, on-line) and not precisely "every" FPS on-line, just a bunch.

The second wave of titles (Fable, Forza or even Gears, Uncharted, God of War and the like) are not strong enough to "move" sales. Combined, may be, but alone their influence in charts is far from clear.

So you find the notable alineation of LBP2, Killzone 3, Motorstorm, Infamous, SOCOM and even Twisted Metal and you know (because you know) that´s not going to change things so far.

Apart from this, the key here seems to be the good sales that PS3 have in JPN and UE compared with 360 and the impact from Kinect in this respect.

But what was (at least for me) unexpected is the HUGE impact in sales that Kinect could make in USA.

Is USA enough to assure the gap between 360 and PS3, that last financial report from companies established in 3-3,5M? DEC and the first months of 2011 will answer the question.

But the clear point from MS is that each and every big selling third party franchise of the FPS genre will help their HW in USA far from any PS3 exclusive FPS (or other) franchise will. God of War, GT5 and the like -even Uncharted 2- are gone and the succes in the HW sales department is far from impressive.

Price is the other factor -Sony has decided to forget the new controller approach as a revolution in the offering their platform has- and -ironically- their HW is so well builded that another Slim product won´t give something new to the users. 360 Slim is just a reliable piece of HW -and that´s makes a difference just in front of their past HW.

But, obviously, price cuts are not married with profitability...

Che, outside USA the problem with 360 is not just "hate", is more related with reliability and exclusive content, because since two years ago the lineup from Sony spread more between genres, or people seems to think so. 360 is really very focused in on-line combat, and the services there are second to none. So is the way people think in Spain. And the online fee MS ask for doesn´t fit to everybody.

The scenario this generation proposes is about 360 supremacy in english territories and their ability to sustain WW supremacy just based in its domain there. With the slow sales in JPN and UE more tied, that situation is just that. Before Kinect the sales in USA were not enough to keep pace. And now? We´ll see.

 

[DonaldDuck]

Just as a reference, previous DEC NPD:

Year - 2007-2008-2009
Wii - 1350 -2150 -3810
360 - 1260 - 1440 - 1310
PS3 -798 - 726 - 1360

Three questions:
- Wii numbers. Last year the HW moved was... I cannot find the appropiate word. Overwhelming. Now what?
- 360... will get their historic record sales, obviously. But how many consoles? 3M is unrealistic?
- PS3... the 700k limit seems a good mark now.

What a situation. USA alone well may be enough to make the gap between the two HD platforms increase 3M in just two months.

It´s pretty clear than Microsoft is in a superb position to use the succes in NOV in order to make the wheel of marketing go downhill... and we know that Kinect is the kind of product that could benefit most from the "fever" of compulsive purchasing.

What a succes. I´m impressed.