NPD November 2010

8.4m for Black Ops, vs ~6m for MW2. Guess all those people talking about how Activision has inevitably milked COD to death in the Activision thread were right.

They were/are. I don't know anyone who still has or still plays Black Ops. Many on my friends list didn't even bother to pick it up. We'll see how the followup title(s) do.

Wow, it sure seems like Kinect has kicked life back into the XB360 sales.
 
They were/are. I don't know anyone who still has or still plays Black Ops. Many on my friends list didn't even bother to pick it up. We'll see how the followup title(s) do.

Wow, it sure seems like Kinect has kicked life back into the XB360 sales.
360 was #1 selling console this year before kinect launched. "Kicking life back" isn't an appropriate description.

As for Blops, that's certainly anecdotal data. It's a number one game on Xbox Live, #3 Reach has 600k players a day, so some people still play Blops...
 
They were/are. I don't know anyone who still has or still plays Black Ops. Many on my friends list didn't even bother to pick it up. We'll see how the followup title(s) do.

Tell you what? I never knew anyone who ever had a Wii. Honestly. Cross my heart.

Nobody's social network is big enough to make meaningful extrapolations. Of course we'll see how the followup titles do. Of course, eventually they'll start going downhill. But today is a big triumph for Kotick and everybody at Treyarch. Don't try to wave it away.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if the kinect games do better in december. There was probably only a million or so kinects in the US in november.

Definitely but I still expected better of Dance Central (though if you read my posts in the price thread I though Sports would outsell it).

I'm going to say it...there is no way I envision Fable 3 in month two outperforming Gran Tourismo 5 launch month floating release dates be damned. I also expected Donkey Kong to outperform Fable 3 though I expect Donkey Kong will have an excellent second month.
 
looking at these npd numbers I have to say that 2011 will be the last 360 year for ms. At least with it being thier main console. sony needs to drop prices asap and I think once the ps3 hits the $200 price point it will squeeze life from the 360 . I bet the 360 will hit $150 next year and in 2012 we will get the xbox next
 
looking at these npd numbers I have to say that 2011 will be the last 360 year for ms. At least with it being thier main console. sony needs to drop prices asap and I think once the ps3 hits the $200 price point it will squeeze life from the 360 . I bet the 360 will hit $150 next year and in 2012 we will get the xbox next

Could you explain your reasoning? Sales are up (way up) for the 360, if anything I'd think that the current numbers suggest holding off longer.
 
Definitely but I still expected better of Dance Central (though if you read my posts in the price thread I though Sports would outsell it).

I'm going to say it...there is no way I envision Fable 3 in month two outperforming Gran Tourismo 5 launch month floating release dates be damned. I also expected Donkey Kong to outperform Fable 3 though I expect Donkey Kong will have an excellent second month.

You won't be able to forecast properly without knowing the selling price. The vendors and retailers can do aggressive promo pricing. e.g., http://notebooks.com/2010/11/27/cyber-monday-fable-iii-for-20-off-at-microsoft-store/

Also the number of days on sales is another key factor.

November and December sales are high because of special deals + increase in advertising + the seasonal shopping crowd. It also depends on whether you want profit or unit sales.
 
Could you explain your reasoning? Sales are up (way up) for the 360, if anything I'd think that the current numbers suggest holding off longer.

The real factor is kinect in these numbers. but right now the 360 is $200-$400 and the ps3 is $300-$500.

I don't really see where ms can move to with pricing . I don't see even kinect + 360 out selling the ps3 when its at similar or cheaper price points and how far down the hole do both companys want to go in terms of pricing ?

Aside from that , i'm sure there is a portion of the user base who is ready to move on. the 360 can continue to sell in 2012/13/14 while an a xbox next starts to take off. The xbox next wouldn't really affect things in 2012. The 360 didn't affect ps2 sales in 2005 or really in 2006.

I wonder tho , if this is the start of a downward trend for the ps3 and it really is dead in the states. will there be a ps4 ?
 
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Why do you need to move anywhere with pricing? If your product is selling you don't need to lower the price. They'll lower their price when they lower their cost to build.
 
You won't be able to forecast properly without knowing the selling price. The vendors and retailers can do aggressive promo pricing. e.g., http://notebooks.com/2010/11/27/cyber-monday-fable-iii-for-20-off-at-microsoft-store/

Also the number of days on sales is another key factor.

November and December sales are high because of special deals + increase in advertising + the seasonal shopping crowd. It also depends on whether you want profit or unit sales.

Without fail...
 
Curious to see the GT5 number. It was only 1 week of sales, right?

3 days actually and without marketing because of black friday as i heard. It was 'funny' when ppl on neogaf called to gamestops, wallmarts and other shop to pre-order a game before 24 and sellers told them that game is not out till end of december or next year ...


But i still think GT 5 manage to make about 500k which is definately good. GT 4 with 22 february 2005 release made 620k [but dont know when NPD cut the month then].

PS3 sales are really poor, but PS3 is still in grow this year in USA [but poor grow]. They've got crushed by Nintendo and Microsoft hardly.
Jan-Nov 2009: 2.974.500
Jan-Nov 2010: 3.123.500

Ps. I'm really surprised by Donkey Kong sales.
 
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3 days actually and without marketing because of black friday as i heard. It was 'funny' when ppl on neogaf called to gamestops, wallmarts and other shop to pre-order a game before 24 and sellers told them that game is not out till end of december or next year ...

They had television ads on before the 24th. And all the bestbuy/futureshop flyers had it plastered on them here anyway. So not without marketing.
 
Yap, but GT5 marketing is poorly managed nonetheless. I think they sponsored a racing TV show or something, plus some ads at the last minute. The title seems to do ok anyway (similar to GT4), but it's more friendly to newbies than I initially thought.


Without fail...

Merchandizing can boost sales. Never forget that if you're looking at unit sales chart without the selling price.
 
looking at these npd numbers I have to say that 2011 will be the last 360 year for ms. At least with it being thier main console. sony needs to drop prices asap and I think once the ps3 hits the $200 price point it will squeeze life from the 360 . I bet the 360 will hit $150 next year and in 2012 we will get the xbox next

Depends. This goes back a bit to the thread about subsidizing. With the amount of money they both bled in the begning of the generation I don't think they will lower the prices under cost. If Sony can't get the cost for the PS3 under 200 I don't think they will start selling it at that price low sales be damned. Of course I have no clue what so ever what the PS3 costs to manufacture and what the prospects are maybe they are under 200 already and then sure, it would be insane to not lower.

But then we get to the disscussion, that after a certain time during a generation and certain price point, the price has a smaller effect than other stuff, eg Kinect, which console does most of my friends have and so on. You get a snowball effect that might be difficult to do anything about and lower pricing just gives you some temporary spikes and loose money...
 
The real factor is kinect in these numbers. but right now the 360 is $200-$400 and the ps3 is $300-$500.


Where can I buy a $500 PS3?

The SKU's 360 are:
199 4GB
299 250GB
299 4GB +kinect
399 250 GB +kinect

vs PS3:
160 GB 299
320 GB 349
320GB +Move 399

If anything it has rather amazed me over the years how MS has successfully convinced people 360 is supposed to be the same price as PS3, even without a blu ray player etc. Sure there is the 199 SKU but MS consistently maintains SKU's at 399 (remember they often do 399 special bundles too ala MW2, FF13 etc).

Anyways yes a 199 PS3 will be nice but, dont forget they probably will have to go to 249 first, or forget that 360 will drop when they do keeping relative pricing lower, and so forth. And really, 360 still has a big advantage at extremely low price points due to the no HDD SKU, unless Sony can cough up a flash equipped PS3 (even then would likely be at a cost disadvantage as they'd need at least 16GB if not 32 imo).
 
...unless Sony can cough up a flash equipped PS3 (even then would likely be at a cost disadvantage as they'd need at least 16GB if not 32 imo).

That's an interesting thought - based on what we know about the internals, is a "slim slim PS3" feasible? When?
 
I thought there was a $500 gt sku ?


Anyway it depends on how you look at it . the 360 is worth more than a ps3 in many peoples eyes and bluray has bombed. I don't see the value of the bluray player in a ps3 when everyone is throwing them in for free with new tvs or they are moving for $50-100 durin nov and dec sales in the states. the average joe blow wants a bluray player that comes with a remote or can work with thier universal remote , they want something small that just plays blurays and they don't need to worry about anything else.

.
Bluray in ps3 may have been a selling factor in 2006 , but at this point bluray is cheap to jump into without a ps3 and i don't know about you but with the amount of ps3s with dieing bluray drives , i've told people to buy a bluray player in addition to a ps3 if they want to go that route.
 
I think we are seeing what a proper $199 Xbox can do now. The 4GB Xbox is a very decent proposition, and I wouldn't be surprised if more 4GBs were sold this month than 250GBs. In the past the Arcade option has been awful and it required the user to buy an expensive HDD to make full use of the console, but this one doesn't and the casuals can buy in now at a low pricepoint and use all of the features. It really is a great console! Well done to Microsoft! :D
 
I thought there was a $500 gt sku ?


Not in the USA. There's a blue GT5 bundle in Japan though I dunno about pricing. Anyways for $500 given the pricing structure in my last post, they'd have had to pack in a lot. An extra controller, Move and the game at the least. I dont think there's a market for a $500 console now unless it's some special limited edition.
 
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