NPD February 2009

[liolio]

I don't think MS will do anything about the dpad. They really dont' seem to care for whatever reason. However, the dpad on the 360 is clearly a very strong knock against the 360 especially when it's your main source of control as is the case for fighting games. Had the madcatz controller not been available, no way I would have purchased SF4 on the 360. I learned my lesson with the dpad when trying to SF2 on XBLA.

True, sadly I've been dumb enough to buy a second controler... I should have bought a madcatz (not sure about spelling) the D-Pad looks way better.

 

[Rangers]

I don't think MS will do anything about the dpad. They really dont' seem to care for whatever reason. However, the dpad on the 360 is clearly a very strong knock against the 360 especially when it's your main source of control as is the case for fighting games. Had the madcatz controller not been available, no way I would have purchased SF4 on the 360. I learned my lesson with the dpad when trying to SF2 on XBLA.

I dont think "Joe Six Pack" has the slightest idea there is anything wrong with the 360 D-Pad. Hell I wouldn't have known myself if I hadnt read it on the internet, and I'm ten times more avid than a casual.

There are some casual players at work, and I can guarantee you if you told them the 360 D-Pad is "broken" they'd look at you like you were crazy.

Whatever the reason SF4 sold relatively better on PS3, certainly in my mind that isn't it.

 

[catisfit]

Another entry for the crossplatform table:

Street Fighter IV
Install base split: 67-33
Sales split: 53-47

360 sales/install base: 3.06%
PS3 sales/install base: 5.54%

They dont seem too, oddly. We have gotten (ship) Capcom PR (4m) for RE5 and just now MS PR (1M) for Halo Wars. So it seems odd Sony hasnt released anything on KZ2, which I'm pretty certain has hit 2m shipped by now (or at least certainly 1m, which is still a PR worthy number isn't it?).

They announced that they had over a million Killzone 2 preorders in Europe in early February.

 

[obonicus]

I did NOT say it's more forgiving. Are you getting a little defensive, here? I'm only stating when a patch a gameplay, while there's not crashes patch within a couple of days of release, isn't it indicative of not play testing enough? Why the rush? Because if you have play tested it enough you would have reservation about changing the balance of things on a whim of the internet so little data to support one way or another.

It's not defensive, it's that your position is somewhat ridiculous. How can actual bugs be less of a sign of insufficient playtesting than gameplay tweaks? And do you know what you're talking about when we refer to this one change? There wasn't a tremendous balance change; to this date people can't agree on what exactly has changed, in fact.

Why isn't the demo good for sales? Is it because it was too short or is it because the controls was patched soon after? Not a rhetorical question, i'm interested in knowing what's your impression.

I don't know what effect it had on sales. There is data to indicate that a less-than-stellar demo will actually hurt sales, though. Take your case: you know very little about the game, but you still decided KZ2 wasn't for you based on the demo. On the other hand, there are posters who had strong doubts about the game after the demo and who deeply enjoyed the SP. The dullest level in the game, combined with controls not everyone can love can have negative effects. I don't think it had nearly as negative an effect as the name 'Killzone' did.

It's not a Halo3 vs KZ2, it's whether KZ2 is a hardcore game or not. If so, then how much can KZ2 as a hardcore come close to CoD sales #. If it's not hardcore, then what you're saying that word of mouth has been positive, then it should be selling pretty well. We'll see if that's the case, next month. While I'm not disagreeing with you that word of mouth has been positive, the question is whether it's going to maintain that sales.

When you look at Halo 3, claim that Halo 3 does something KZ2 doesn't, and then judge KZ2 based on that -- that's Halo 3 vs. KZ2. I disagree deeply with most of what you've said, but again, this isn't a KZ2 vs. Halo 3 thread. I didn't reply to that because it would have gone in a very stupid direction. Otherwise, what does 'hardcore game' even mean? That's a term that doesn't even carry much meaning when talking about the expanded market, what sort of meaning does it have when we're talking about FPSs?

 

[Scott_Arm]

I dont think "Joe Six Pack" has the slightest idea there is anything wrong with the 360 D-Pad. Hell I wouldn't have known myself if I hadnt read it on the internet, and I'm ten times more avid than a casual.

There are some casual players at work, and I can guarantee you if you told them the 360 D-Pad is "broken" they'd look at you like you were crazy.

Whatever the reason SF4 sold relatively better on PS3, certainly in my mind that isn't it.

Within' five seconds of using the d-pad you realize how bad it sucks. Anyone who owns a 360 knows it. If you own it and you think the d-pad is complete shit, why would you buy SF4? I'm sure there are a lot of people that wouldn't buy it for that reason.

 

[tirminyl]

Most sales are in the first day, each day declines heavily after.

It isn't linear 2 days versus 11 days, where 11 days is 5.5X better than 2 days.

I could not characterize Kz2 as "well" given the hype. Gears of War 1 did far better on a lesser userbase (far, far lesser actually)

I would also venture to say marketing plays a roll as well.

 

[obonicus]

Most sales are in the first day, each day declines heavily after.

It isn't linear 2 days versus 11 days, where 11 days is 5.5X better than 2 days.

I could not characterize Kz2 as "well" given the hype. Gears of War 1 did far better on a lesser userbase (far, far lesser actually)

That's for heavily front-loaded games. I don't think GeoW1 was, I think it rode out on word of mouth (and also pushed 360 sales). With the dubious value of the Killzone franchise, I really don't expect day-one numbers to be that great. On the other hand, KZ2 had its reviews several weeks before release.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I'm pretty sure Killzone2 will sell a million in NA at a minimum.

 

[fearsomepirate]

If this is true, will Microsoft get the message and release a controller with a redesigned D-pad for Tekken 6 later this year? I doubt it, personally.

See, I keep wondering when Namco will get the message and release a Tekken game with a redesigned control scheme for modern controllers. I doubt it, personally.

 

[woundingchaney]

They announced that they had over a million Killzone 2 preorders in Europe in early February.

This was most likely retail orders. Nothing was ever stated suggesting that these "pre-orders" were from consumers or they were even related to any given retailer, nor would Sony be knowledgeable of those numbers. Sony would know how many copies that was to be shipped to retail and this is most likely what the 1 million pre-orders statement represented.

 

[NRP]

Well Nav, then you need to get the Halo 3 maps and join our weekly frag fest. We've got an Air Force guy, and we could use a Navy guy as well.

 

[obonicus]

See, I keep wondering when Namco will get the message and release a Tekken game with a redesigned control scheme for modern controllers. I doubt it, personally.

Why would they? The only fighting game franchise that has grown in fanbase is Smash. Changing controls so that fans who have invested in alternate controllers and sticks can't play would kill the series on consoles. Might as well make a new game -- Capcom, I'm ready for another Powerstone. Or Namco, if Capcom won't, rip that game off shamelessly. I'll even let you gouge me on Idolm@ster outfits for my characters (no, not really).

 

[Zassk]

In the face of the largest economic downturn in recent history it's still posting large (not small, not modest but large) year over year gains with no incentives to make someone want one when most people are tightening up their budgets.

Not only that, but common wisdom has said that console sales peak in the 3rd year after launch. The 360 is supposed to be declining this year, and this year is supposed to be the peak year for the Wii and PS3. IMO this is just another sign that this generation differs from the previous.

 

[eastmen]

Not only that, but common wisdom has said that console sales peak in the 3rd year after launch. The 360 is supposed to be declining this year, and this year is supposed to be the peak year for the Wii and PS3. IMO this is just another sign that this generation differs from the previous.

Well I think its simply the fact that Its taken the xbox 360 3 years to get to the $200 price point and even then there are still sku's out there ranging up to $400. But I don't see the 360 declining in sales this year. Mabye next year we will see it start to drop but i fully expect a new system to be announced then anyway.

MS should have another killer year of titles

 

[bkilian]

My end of year total for gaming might shock some people this year...I'm at a total of ZERO dollars spent so far.

Dude, that's terrible... you need to spend to prop up the economy!

I'm at $25 for boxed games (Halo Wars - I love the company store ). And probably about $100 if you count in random Live purchases. Buggers make it way too easy to buy more points...

 

[TrungGap]

It's not defensive, it's that your position is somewhat ridiculous. How can actual bugs be less of a sign of insufficient playtesting than gameplay tweaks? And do you know what you're talking about when we refer to this one change?

It's apparent that you haven't completely read or understand my post...No where have I said crashes/bugs were less important. All I have said, then they patch a gameplay within days of the release, it showed they haven't play tested it enough.

It's like saying if they release a patch to fix a crash within days of the release, would indicate they haven't tested enough for crashes/bugs. Now where have I place a value judgment. It's you that assume the value judgment not me.

There wasn't a tremendous balance change; to this date people can't agree on what exactly has changed, in fact.

People can't agree on what was changed or can't agree on if the change is for the better? If people can't agree on what was changed, GG has already said what was changed.

I don't know what effect it had on sales. There is data to indicate that a less-than-stellar demo will actually hurt sales, though. Take your case: you know very little about the game, but you still decided KZ2 wasn't for you based on the demo. On the other hand, there are posters who had strong doubts about the game after the demo and who deeply enjoyed the SP. The dullest level in the game, combined with controls not everyone can love can have negative effects. I don't think it had nearly as negative an effect as the name 'Killzone' did.

Again, either haven't read my post or failed to understand what I have said, here it is again:

I think Sony did the right thing by not revealing too much in the KZ2 demo, because it got me curious enough to buy, but not fun enough to insist my friends of buying it.

However, that's not the point. Whether I like the game/demo or not. You mentioned that you have data the showed the demo hurts the sales, please do share...as those tidbits are really the interesting part.

When you look at Halo 3, claim that Halo 3 does something KZ2 doesn't, and then judge KZ2 based on that -- that's Halo 3 vs. KZ2. I disagree deeply with most of what you've said, but again, this isn't a KZ2 vs. Halo 3 thread. I didn't reply to that because it would have gone in a very stupid direction. Otherwise, what does 'hardcore game' even mean? That's a term that doesn't even carry much meaning when talking about the expanded market, what sort of meaning does it have when we're talking about FPSs?

Hmm, i guess I was under the impression knew that Halo was designed to attract the large number of people as possible. Meaning they didn't want to have a game, that the players would have to invest a lot of time to build up or learn. It's like GT vs Daytona. Anyway, I don't think it's productive to discuss any further.

 

[tha_con]

Most sales are in the first day, each day declines heavily after.

It isn't linear 2 days versus 11 days, where 11 days is 5.5X better than 2 days.

I could not characterize Kz2 as "well" given the hype. Gears of War 1 did far better on a lesser userbase (far, far lesser actually)

Gears of War 1 was also around before Halo 3, CoD4, CoD WaW, L4D, etc.

At the time of it's release, KZ2 had a LOT of market share to compete with. You could even say that Halo Wars and Resident Evil 5 were competiting, even if they released after. Gamers don't buy *everything* that releases, mind you. Those playing CoD4, and more recently CoD WaW are playing because they can pick it up, play with people they know, and don't have to spend $60.

What exactly did Gears 1 have to content with on that front? Halo 2? Right. Apples to oranges.

 

[TrungGap]

Not only that, but common wisdom has said that console sales peak in the 3rd year after launch. The 360 is supposed to be declining this year, and this year is supposed to be the peak year for the Wii and PS3. IMO this is just another sign that this generation differs from the previous.

I think it's still too early to tell. It's only March. Sony will drop their price. They have to...and this is the year...lagging behind 360 and bad economy. Many stores (non-computer related) are doing massive discount just trying to break even so they can weather the bad economy. So with a price drop, don't count on PS3 being 3rd. Sony brand recognition is still a lot higher than MS.

 

[Tap In]

You seriously can't be really thinking that?

why not?

If a game is being talked up regardless of system and is selling gangbusters (even if by far more on another system) you don't think that drives excitement. I say even moreso than even a well placed 1st party game with less than stellar sales can do.

It's gaining consumer mind share.

When MS first started talking about "magic price point" over and over, I ignored it for just PR babble but clearly they were onto something. Whether it's by luck or logic, we'll never know but so far $199 seems to be doing well for them. ...

looks at location tag.

 

[patsu]

why not?

If a game is being talked up regardless of system and is selling gangbusters (even if by far more on another system) you don't think that drives excitement. I say even moreso than even a well placed 1st party game with less than stellar sales can do.

I think he meant the notion that Xbox users drove sales of PS3 cross-platform titles. There are some impact, but they'd hear the same thing from their PS3 owning friends too. The sales number of "X360 owners gobbling up games like CoD by the millions" usually comes in too late to affect launch week purchases anyway. OTOH potential buyers are able to ask more gamer friends for feedback (or look at XMB to see many friends playing the new game).

The cross platform titles that did well usually have a good track record. Many Sony first party titles are new IPs. Look at MGS4, it's exclusive to PS3 but outperform most new IPs on PS3.

looks at location tag.

The magic price point is usually called the reference price. But it doesn't always hold true. Again look at Nintendo, they raised the price according to retailer feedback, and Wii continues to outsell the HD consoles in US, including $199 ones. Pricing's always a function of perceived value.