NPD February 2009

[Silent_Buddha]

What I'm most surprised at is how X360 continues to increase year over year sales even in the face of this rather drastic economic recession. And not just doing it in small increments but in rather large chunks.

Add to that there wasn't even a major X360 title released in Feb. The largest being SFIV and that sold better relative to install base than X360.

It's just absolutely amazing. No price reduction. No major title released. Largest economic downturn in recent history. And yet it's still posting large positive year over year gains.

Regards,
SB

 

[RobertR1]

heh, I wonder why they'd bother with that (fugly) green controller in Europe then. Mixed signals... :s

I think they did as a promotion for some Footall game. However, they stopped with having a good idea and never brought it to NA and even the Euro sku was very limited quantities. Companies do some strange things.....

 

[RobertR1]

What I'm most surprised at is how X360 continues to increase year over year sales even in the face of this rather drastic economic recession. And not just doing it in small increments but in rather large chunks.

Add to that there wasn't even a major X360 title released in Feb. The largest being SFIV and that sold better relative to install base than X360.

It's just absolutely amazing. No price reduction. No major title released. Largest economic downturn in recent history. And yet it's still posting large positive year over year gains.

Regards,
SB

It's gaining consumer mind share.

When MS first started talking about "magic price point" over and over, I ignored it for just PR babble but clearly they were onto something. Whether it's by luck or logic, we'll never know but so far $199 seems to be doing well for them. Next month I expect a large difference between the 2 RE5 versions as the controller is no longer an issue. I'd be quite shocked if RE5 sku's are close in numbers as the SF4 sku's.

 

[patsu]

No price reduction. No major title released. Largest economic downturn in recent history. And yet it's still posting large positive year over year gains.

Gah... it has already reduced the price Why should MS reduce it further ? They need to sweep the market based on the current price point first.

There are also enough titles on all consoles to keep their own audience. It's pretty clear that MS is after marketshare while Sony is after profitability. Naturally, MS should gain marketshare. In the mean time, Nintendo continues on its own momentum.

 

[eastmen]

I'm surprised , i thought killzone would have pushed the ps3 closer to the 360. Can we use the halo 3 logic on killzone 2 ? That everyone who wanted the game already has a ps3 ?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Gah... it has already reduced the price Why should MS reduce it further ? They need to sweep the market based on the current price point first.

There are also enough titles on all consoles to keep their own audience.

That's the whole point I was making though. In the face of the largest economic downturn in recent history it's still posting large (not small, not modest but large) year over year gains with no incentives to make someone want one when most people are tightening up their budgets.

Yet despite that, it's still plowing ahead... Will they be able to keep it off, or will it peter off soon?

It's hard to think of this as a blip as there isn't really anything to cause a blip...

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I'm surprised , i thought killzone would have pushed the ps3 closer to the 360. Can we use the halo 3 logic on killzone 2 ? That everyone who wanted the game already has a ps3 ?

I wouldn't read anything into the KZ2 numbers just yet. As noted it was only for sale for 2 days for Feb.

March will be a more likely indicator as to how well it did and whether it was able to influence PS3 sales to any degree.

Regards,
SB

 

[TrungGap]

I don't know how much if word of mouth and how much is hype. CoD4 was a real case of word of mouth, since it did better in its second month, but WaW came in with CoD4's pedigree. Halo 3 and GTA4 both had ridiculously high launches, with comparatively weaker follow-up months (GTA4 did still somehow manage to sell over 10 million). WaW is still holding up moderately well, though.

If it's pure hype, then we'll see a huge launch and then tapers off quickly. In Halo 3, WaW and GTA4 it didn't just drop off the charts. It managed to reach (what I like to believe) saturation point. Not everybody is going to like gangster or World War 2 theme games.

What we do know is what is PS3 is capable of selling as far as FPS. CoD series is a good indicator. So we'll see if KZ2 can manage coming close to it.

The demo wasn't really representative of the final product, which is really worse than no demo at all. Not only that, but they only updated the controls after the game's launch, in case that was a serious turn-off to some.

I was more impressed with the actual game than the demo (KZ2). I was actually underwhelmed by the demo, but the game was very impressive.

When they patch a game so early on and it's not a technical problem (crashes/bug/left debug mode one), it shows that the developer didn't have enough play testing.

This is where I think a shorter demo is beneficial. Because it hides all that away. And they need to patch it so it'll be fun to play early on, so else the word of mouth will kill it. Remember Lair?

When Bungie did Halo 3, they did extensive testing on game length, map size, game controls and etc. I have a feeling that KZ2 didn't go through that extensive testing and evaluation. Now, don't get me wrong. KZ2 is an amazing piece of technology showcase. Where it fails is mp, fun factor...maybe KZ2 is too hardcore, because I just want to pick up a game and play. I don't want to jump through so many hoops. If GG release a causal profile (gameplay), I'm sure sales would definitely pick up...(word of mouth).

Did I just contradicted myself? By saying that KZ2 is too hardcore? If it is a hardcore game, then it could reach saturation before eaching CoD in term of sales. But enough of KZ2.

I don't know about everyone else here, but I'm really impressed with PS3 numbers in NA, considering the state of our economy. I would imagine it has to dip a little YoY. I can understand why 360 did so well...it's the price cut, duh. I don't even bother trying to understand what's going on with the Wii.

 

[obonicus]

When they patch a game so early on and it's not a technical problem (crashes/bug/left debug mode one), it shows that the developer didn't have enough play testing.

It doesn't show any such thing. It's in fact interesting that you're more forgiving of crashes/bugs than gameplay tweaks. Look over the KZ2 thread, to this day not everyone agrees if the patch was necessary or not. (But this isn't the KZ2 discussion thread either.)

This is where I think a shorter demo is beneficial. Because it hides all that away. And they need to patch it so it'll be fun to play early on, so else the word of mouth will kill it. Remember Lair?

Word of mouth on KZ2 has been quite positive, though. I don't think releasing the demo was so great, but Lair also was hurt by abysmal review scores. Lair's janky demo may not have helped, but it wasn't the only problem it had either. MP has issues and that may hurt its longevity -- anecdotal evidence says fewer people are playing, but that may just be people going through RE5.

When Bungie did Halo 3, they did extensive testing on game length, map size, game controls and etc. I have a feeling that KZ2 didn't go through that extensive testing and evaluation. Now, don't get me wrong. KZ2 is an amazing piece of technology showcase. Where it fails is mp, fun factor...maybe KZ2 is too hardcore, because I just want to pick up a game and play. I don't want to jump through so many hoops. If GG release a causal profile (gameplay), I'm sure sales would definitely pick up...(word of mouth).

I... don't want to touch this with a 10-foot pole. It's not a Halo 3 vs. KZ2 thread (there is no such thread).

 

[BadTB25]

I think part of the reason the X360 is doing well is its very positive image of LIVE and Netflix integration.

Of course it doesn't hurt that the system continues to have good to great games being pumped out for it.

I like my PS3, but I would rather player MP games on LIVE while my PS3 is on standby for Sony exclusives and BluRay movies.

They are getting better though, but to be honest I think HOME was a mistake (at least from my POV). Even my hardcore PS3 friends hardly interact with it.

 

[obonicus]

They are getting better though, but to be honest I think HOME was a mistake (at least from my POV). Even my hardcore PS3 friends hardly interact with it.

I don't think it's for the hardcore, at least not if you mean hardcore by people who read forums. We know better than to spend $1.99 (or whatever stupid amount) for a fake T-shirt. But apparently, people are buying that crap.

 

[mrcorbo]

It's pretty clear that MS is after marketshare while Sony is after profitability. Naturally, MS should gain marketshare. In the mean time, Nintendo continues on its own momentum.

Actually, at least right now, it's more correct to say that MS is after marketshare AND profitability and is getting both. Nice position to be in.

And it does seem that getting to $199/$299 was significant as we are seeing greater and more sustained momentum from this price drop than the previous one. Magic price point indeed.

 

[TrungGap]

It doesn't show any such thing. It's in fact interesting that you're more forgiving of crashes/bugs than gameplay tweaks. Look over the KZ2 thread, to this day not everyone agrees if the patch was necessary or not. (But this isn't the KZ2 discussion thread either.)

I did NOT say it's more forgiving. Are you getting a little defensive, here? I'm only stating when a patch a gameplay, while there's not crashes patch within a couple of days of release, isn't it indicative of not play testing enough? Why the rush? Because if you have play tested it enough you would have reservation about changing the balance of things on a whim of the internet so little data to support one way or another.

Because as you have even indicated the forums haven't quite agree if the control is as tight as it should have been.

Word of mouth on KZ2 has been quite positive, though. I don't think releasing the demo was so great, but Lair also was hurt by abysmal review scores.

Why isn't the demo good for sales? Is it because it was too short or is it because the controls was patched soon after? Not a rhetorical question, i'm interested in knowing what's your impression.

Lair's janky demo may not have helped, but it wasn't the only problem it had either. MP has issues and that may hurt its longevity -- anecdotal evidence says fewer people are playing, but that may just be people going through RE5.

I... don't want to touch this with a 10-foot pole. It's not a Halo 3 vs. KZ2 thread (there is no such thread).

It's not a Halo3 vs KZ2, it's whether KZ2 is a hardcore game or not. If so, then how much can KZ2 as a hardcore come close to CoD sales #. If it's not hardcore, then what you're saying that word of mouth has been positive, then it should be selling pretty well. We'll see if that's the case, next month. While I'm not disagreeing with you that word of mouth has been positive, the question is whether it's going to maintain that sales.

I think part of the reason the X360 is doing well is its very positive image of LIVE and Netflix integration.

While I think it's great to have this...however, I'm not convinced that it's a selling point. Maybe because I view the 360 as a game console first, everything else on it is fringe benefits.

They are getting better though, but to be honest I think HOME was a mistake (at least from my POV). Even my hardcore PS3 friends hardly interact with it.

I totally agree...To some degree I think NXE's Avatar is a waste of resources (development time) that could have spent on other things.

 

[patsu]

That's the whole point I was making though. In the face of the largest economic downturn in recent history it's still posting large (not small, not modest but large) year over year gains with no incentives to make someone want one when most people are tightening up their budgets.

Yet despite that, it's still plowing ahead... Will they be able to keep it off, or will it peter off soon?

It's hard to think of this as a blip as there isn't really anything to cause a blip...

Well, Wii achieved 753K (vs 400K and below for each HD console) in the same time period. I don't know what's surprising given that the entry level Xbox 360 is actually cheaper than Wii, and 360 has one more year worth of software, video marketplace, plus a better network service. You'll also need to see if MS, Wii and Sony are doing weekly promotions with different retailers (a common technique) to drive sales too.

The PS3 is stunted by the high price and same age as Wii. So I can see why it's trailing behind 360 in terms of marketshare.

Actually, at least right now, it's more correct to say that MS is after marketshare AND profitability and is getting both. Nice position to be in.

Oh so true, but I don't know how Sony counts its Blu-ray business though. From Sony's perspective, PS3 continues to drive the gaming business and the Blu-ray business.

 

[BadTB25]

While I think it's great to have this...however, I'm not convinced that it's a selling point. Maybe because I view the 360 as a game console first, everything else on it is fringe benefits.

Anecdotal evidence...I have 3 friends in the past couple of months that bought the 360 primarily for NetFlix. They were pre-existing subscribers, but it was an added value to be able to stream movies while awaiting the mail delivery. The only games they have are Arcade titles.

I did help them set it up so they can stream movies, pics and music from their Home Network. It was an added bonus for them.

I know that it is probably not the majority of new owners, but I believe that it is does contributes a bit.

BTW, I'm with you on my 360 is gaming machine first and movie viewer second. Weird that with my PS3 it is the reverse. That being said, I will be a very happy camper if GOWIII lives up even remotely to the first 2.

 

[Rangers]

I did some checking and this was the highest 360 has sold for a non holiday (Nov/Dec) month. Excepting September 07 when a little game called Halo 3 released and 360 sold 527.8k.

391k is a pretty stout, almost ps2-ish number.

Not sure what drove it either. NPD strikes me as a little funny sometimes. February, and a 4 week month, and no particularly huge releases, wouldn't point to high sales.

I'm guessing if a game inflated hardware sales it was SF4. The SF series is a bit of a pop culture phenomenon among the older gamer set.

Edit: I did more checking out of curiosity..360 has now been on the market for 40 NPD months, 391k was it's 8th highest sales overall. Behind the 7 months of Nov/Dec 06, 07, and 08, and Sep 07. 391k beat out Nov/Dec 05 holiday supply constrained months.

Not too shabby, still a pretty high priced system, and fairly long in the tooth.

I could surely come up with a similar stat for PS3 and 276k, just didnt try.

 

[patsu]

You'll need to know their marketing plans to be able to attribute the numbers. Their channel marketing folks may be working with retailers nationwide to run campaigns. The "natural" demand of the units will only be apparent after these extra efforts have been accounted for (e.g., via regression). The same applies to PS3 and Wii.

 

[Rangers]

I think it's possible -- it's outperformed Halo Wars in Charttrack every week they were against each other, and that just sold 1 million copies. But I was wondering if Sony had made any claims about KZ2's sales.

They dont seem too, oddly. We have gotten (ship) Capcom PR (4m) for RE5 and just now MS PR (1M) for Halo Wars. So it seems odd Sony hasnt released anything on KZ2, which I'm pretty certain has hit 2m shipped by now (or at least certainly 1m, which is still a PR worthy number isn't it?).

OTOH I dont recall Capcom releasing any SF4 ship PR either..but I may have just missed it.

 

[Rangers]

SF4 was out on 2 platforms for 12 days.

KZ2 was out on 1 platform for 2 days.

I think KZ2 did well, and SF4 did okay.

Most sales are in the first day, each day declines heavily after.

It isn't linear 2 days versus 11 days, where 11 days is 5.5X better than 2 days.

I could not characterize Kz2 as "well" given the hype. Gears of War 1 did far better on a lesser userbase (far, far lesser actually)

 

[liolio]

Greenberg says a lot of stuff.

Well you're right, here is the only part of this interview I find interesting:

The Xbox 360 version of Street Fighter IV outsold its PlayStation 3 counterpart in February, but only by about 11 percent; the two games occupied the second and third places in the month's software top ten. "We're hearing the same early returns for Resident Evil," Greenberg noted. He said what's more important is the growing perception that brands formerly associated with PlayStation are now also available on Xbox.