NPD February 2009

[Mboojigga]

Hype is for enthusiast, brand name gets sales. RE5, Halo (wars) and SF4 get a huge boost in awareness due to being a successful and popular franchise, Killzone 1 was neither popular or successful.

The only real surprise this month is the SF4 split. The PS3 YoY is misleading, last year was following a price drop.

But why are the Ps2 and PSP also in decline with the PS3 for the last couple of months?

 

[DrJay24]

But why are the Ps2 and PSP also in decline with the PS3 for the last couple of months?

All for different reasons I'm sure, what are you hinting at a conspiracy against PSx systems?

 

[Mboojigga]

All for different reasons I'm sure, what are you hinting at a conspiracy against PSx systems?

Nope! IMO I think it is the lack of advertisement and the drop off of consumers purchasing the PS3 for Blu Ray only in comparision to last year this same time.

As far as the PS2 it just seems like it is tapering off and for the PSP I honestly don't have a clue why the decline. But it has been 4 months in a row while all the other systems continue to rise. But I don't think it is a conspiracy.

 

[mrcorbo]

KZ2 may have had more hype, but SF is a very popular franchise, whereas KZ is not. Sony also dropped the ball (once again) on marketing. It's also pretty clear that shooters sell considerably better on 360 in North America than on PS3, yet a game like SF4 sells about equal. Not to mention SF4 was released considerably earlier in the month.

I agree with most of what you said, but this doesn't ring true, IMO. The COD series has done just fine on PS3 relative to 360.

I think the recurring theme of "poor Sony marketing" is more to blame. That restricted demo was incredibly stupid, for example.

 

[Richard]

KZ2 was far more hyped than SF4, yet SF4 sold better...850K just in USA first month..better relatively on PS3.

But SF4 was available in NA for 11 days versus KZ2's 2 days. Or put another way, KZ2 managed 80% of SF4's sales with just 20% of the time-on-shelf.

Crazy as it sounds, think Wii is the loser here. PS3 and 360 are turning in solid growing sales.

For the XBOX sure, for the PS3 only after factoring the economic period differences, last year's price drop, last year's proximity to MGS4's launch, etc. It's a lot more conditional. In fact, I'd say the excuse of last year's price drop is a poor one at best considering it's dangerous to run a business where you have to continuously drop the price to gain any measurable market share (which the PS3 isn't doing for the last 5 or so months).

Wii has tanked in Japan and finally met demand in USA in February, so that 750K is truly a non supply constrained number for the first time ever.

I think tanking in Japan really has very little meaning for the rest of the world considering the xbox has always been bottom of the barrel there. Certainly, Japan's market has been shrinking in importance. Demographics-wise, it's 1/3 of the NA market and around 1/4 the EU: Japan is likely the first "major" market to witness saturation. Besides, if Nintendo released a new Zelda game tomorrow there'd be an extra 300K consoles sales easily.

Now you have to wonder if it begins to drop. Even so, it's not outselling the combined HD market by much.

Look at what you're saying: In February, it's not outselling the other two competitors combined by much. Even if the Wii drops to 400K units it's still number one and the current marketshare lead allows them to lose monthly for a while before any panic button needs pressing. And there hasn't been any price drops yet. If they have to drop to 199 this Autumn they can keep going even longer. Bundle it with Wii Play and we're probably in for a new record.

Having said that, I do expect the Wii to be the first console to end the cycle. OTOH, 750K in Feb likely means you get at least 2 more years.

 

[Mboojigga]

Microsoft's Greenberg: 'PS3 Business' Is 'Hemorrhaging At Retail'

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=22833

 

[obonicus]

For the XBOX sure, for the PS3 only after factoring the economic period differences, last year's price drop, last year's proximity to MGS4's launch, etc. It's a lot more conditional. In fact, I'd say the excuse of last year's price drop is a poor one at best considering it's dangerous to run a business where you have to continuously drop the price to gain any measurable market share.

The 360 didn't quite exactly gain marketshare, but before their pricecut last year they were coming neck and neck with the PS3. The price-cut changed that and, as others have noted, has served them pretty well (in terms of console sales anyway).

Besides, if Nintendo released a new Zelda game tomorrow there'd be an extra 300K consoles sales easily.

While a Zelda game would certainly sell a ton and push console sales, I don't think that'd be sufficient. They need another Wii Fit, not a core game -- they need to keep their expanded market's attention on the console. The Wii isn't as starved for games as the PS3, but it's not overwhelmed with games either -- and even so it doesn't look like Wii games are leaping at every semi-decent 'core' release the way PS3 gamers are. It's the Wii's big gamble, betting on the expanded market in lieu of (for some reason -- nothing prevented them from going after both markets at the same time, other than Nintendo itself) the core market. Also, I wonder what effect the shortages had on Wii interest -- the EU aren't supply-constrained, right? How badly is the Wii beating the other two consoles over there, does anyone have definite numbers?

Also, I disagree that being outsold for a little bit wouldn't be a disaster. The Wii can't get proper third party support even when dominating console sales. I suspect that any sign that Nintendomination may be over would be spun into a full-on prophecy.

Tangentially on the subject, HotD:Overkill didn't show. Wasn't there a pretty heavy advertising campaign behind it?

 

[obonicus]

Microsoft's Greenberg: 'PS3 Business' Is 'Hemorrhaging At Retail'

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=22833

Greenberg says a lot of stuff.

 

[djskribbles]

I agree with most of what you said, but this doesn't ring true, IMO. The COD series has done just fine on PS3 relative to 360.

I think the recurring theme of "poor Sony marketing" is more to blame. That restricted demo was incredibly stupid, for example.

You're probably right. That would explain why high profile third-party multiplatform games generally sell better than Sony's first-party exclusives.

 

[AlphaWolf]

360 14586100 LTD
PS3 7268700 LTD

There's no way in hell that KZ2 will be over 1million NPD by the end of march. It might chart next month but its not going to do over 500k, if they are lucky it will do similar to feb. numbers. I expect about 2/3rds of feb myself.

 

[Richard]

The 360 didn't quite exactly gain marketshare, but before their pricecut last year they were coming neck and neck with the PS3. The price-cut changed that and, as others have noted, has served them pretty well (in terms of console sales anyway).

Oh I agree. There were even a couple of months where the PS3 came out ahead a few thousand units. What I was trying to get at is that looking at the YoY change and excusing it with last year's price drop is not very interesting because, at some point your product has to create marketshare through other means other than price drops. The Xbox seems to be able to do that (perhaps because of a shrewd policy of knowing exactly when to drop the price rather than just by how much).

While a Zelda game would certainly sell a ton and push console sales, I don't think that'd be sufficient. They need another Wii Fit, not a core game -- they need to keep their expanded market's attention on the console.

My impression (could be wrong obviously) is that it's Japan's hardcore market that's shying away from Nintendo. For the grandma-wii crowd, Wii Play, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii music... it all blends in a swirling mass of cutesy characters and entertaining sounds.

It's the "refined" hardcore crowd (and in this context by hardcore I mean anyone that owned a previous generation console) that can recognise the Wii's limitations but may be willing to stick with N if only they keep churning out new Mario, Zelda, Metroid titles.

I do find your point about the two markets intriguing. We know from previous interviews with Nintendo that they've consciously decided not to go head-to-head with Sony/MS but at some point, once the big bucks started rolling in they could have made a bigger effort to re-enter that competition, no?

Also, I wonder what effect the shortages had on Wii interest -- the EU aren't supply-constrained, right? How badly is the Wii beating the other two consoles over there, does anyone have definite numbers?

I have no pan-european numbers. The only anecdotal evidence I can give you is that ever since the Wii's release over here, there has never been a day where I didn't find a couple of Wii boxes in a store.

 

[Tap In]

You're probably right. That would explain why high profile third-party multiplatform games generally sell better than Sony's first-party exclusives.

either that or the word of mouth of X360 owners gobbling up games like CoD by the millions, makes people feel like they are missing out if they don't buy it for PS3.

You can't market actual excitement of units sold (regardless of platform). Everybody wants to own a "winning" game.

 

[tha_con]

KZ2 was far more hyped than SF4, yet SF4 sold better...850K just in USA first month..better relatively on PS3.

I expect RE5 to do even better. (Capcom already did a press release stating 4 million RE5 shipped) Capcom is cleaning up this gen.

Crazy as it sounds, think Wii is the loser here. PS3 and 360 are turning in solid growing sales. Wii has tanked in Japan and finally met demand in USA in February, so that 750K is truly a non supply constrained number for the first time ever. Now you have to wonder if it begins to drop. Even so, it's not outselling the combined HD market by much.

PS3 and 360 were both about 100k above my expectations. I expected 200 and 300k respectively.

SF4 was out on 2 platforms for 12 days.

KZ2 was out on 1 platform for 2 days.

I think KZ2 did well, and SF4 did okay.

 

[TrungGap]

either that or the word of mouth of X360 owners gobbling up games like CoD by the millions, makes people feel like they are missing out if they don't buy it for PS3.

You can't market actual excitement of units sold (regardless of platform). Everybody wants to own a "winning" game.

You seriously can't be really thinking that? WaW is game with it's own merits (on both platforms). So, it's doesn't need convincing from the xbox users base. I agree that word of mouth is probably what drives WaW, Halo 3 (but not Halo Wars), GTA and etc.

I think Sony did the right thing by not revealing too much in the KZ2 demo, because it got me curious enough to buy, but not fun enough to insist my friends of buying it. I have no problem in insisting my friends to buy WaW, so we can play together. Demo is a double edge sword...KZ2 showed case KZ2's strength, which is graphic, and hide its weakness.

 

[fearsomepirate]

Quick 'n' dirty Japan comparison:
March 2 - 8, 2009
PSP - 59,568
PS3 - 39,835
DSi - 32,102
Wii - 16,560
X360 - 14,994
DSL - 11,240
PS2 - 4,954

Game Boy Advance SP - 48,936
PlayStation 2 - 43,248
GameCube - 8,389
Game Boy Advance - 4,204
Xbox - 839
PSone - 448
Wonder Swan Crystal - 363

For the same week in March:
Current-gen traditional consoles are about even (52K).
Handhelds are way up (53K vs 102K).
Last gen is hanging on more tenaciously (5K vs 0.5K).

Wii's...not very significant. I think Nintendo was banking on Wii Music and Animal Crossing. Unfortunately, they forgot to put content into Wii Music and forgot to put new content in Animal Crossing. The market's shown it's cool with last-gen production values, but it likes new, professional content.

It's incredible how long Mario Kart Wii, Mario Kart DS, Wii Fit, and New SMB have charted. Absolutely amazing.

 

[obonicus]

You seriously can't be really thinking that? WaW is game with it's own merits (on both platforms). So, it's doesn't need convincing from the xbox users base. I agree that word of mouth is probably what drives WaW, Halo 3 (but not Halo Wars), GTA and etc.

I don't know how much if word of mouth and how much is hype. CoD4 was a real case of word of mouth, since it did better in its second month, but WaW came in with CoD4's pedigree. Halo 3 and GTA4 both had ridiculously high launches, with comparatively weaker follow-up months (GTA4 did still somehow manage to sell over 10 million). WaW is still holding up moderately well, though.

I think Sony did the right thing by not revealing too much in the KZ2 demo, because it got me curious enough to buy, but not fun enough to insist my friends of buying it. I have no problem in insisting my friends to buy WaW, so we can play together. Demo is a double edge sword...KZ2 showed case KZ2's strength, which is graphic, and hide its weakness.

The demo wasn't really representative of the final product, which is really worse than no demo at all. Not only that, but they only updated the controls after the game's launch, in case that was a serious turn-off to some.

 

[djskribbles]

I was more impressed with the actual game than the demo (KZ2). I was actually underwhelmed by the demo, but the game was very impressive.

 

[obonicus]

As for SF4, the controller is clearly the key. Hell, I had to go out a madcatz controller just to make the game playable. I'd say if it wasn't for Live and people wanting to play with friends, the PS3 sales would have done even better. I feel bad for anyone use the stock dpad on the 360 and trying to play it.

If this is true, will Microsoft get the message and release a controller with a redesigned D-pad for Tekken 6 later this year? I doubt it, personally.

 

[RobertR1]

If this is true, will Microsoft get the message and release a controller with a redesigned D-pad for Tekken 6 later this year? I doubt it, personally.

I don't think MS will do anything about the dpad. They really dont' seem to care for whatever reason. However, the dpad on the 360 is clearly a very strong knock against the 360 especially when it's your main source of control as is the case for fighting games. Had the madcatz controller not been available, no way I would have purchased SF4 on the 360. I learned my lesson with the dpad when trying to SF2 on XBLA.

 

[AlNom]

heh, I wonder why they'd bother with that (fugly) green controller in Europe then. Mixed signals... :s