NPD December 2008

[woundingchaney]

either that or a lot more Ps3s are being used primarily as blu Ray movie players than game machines that we think.

Nearly all PS3 owners I know use the machine as a BD player.

I cant help but feel that many have underestimated the impact the PS3 had on BD players during the first part of 2008 and the latter part of 2007. I have no doubt that many PS3s are used solely for BD playback.

 

[silhouette]

Nearly all PS3 owners I know use the machine as a BD player.

I cant help but feel that many have underestimated the impact the PS3 had on BD players during the first part of 2008 and the latter part of 2007. I have no doubt that many PS3s are used solely for BD playback.

That's very true.. I have a number of friends that considered (some bought) PS3 solely for BR playback.. Now, fast forward to last holiday season, the appeal was not there anymore after the profile 2.0 complaint stand-alone players hits to at/below 250$.

Next year, unless Sony cuts the price to 300$ (which I fail to see, maybe 350$ is a mroe realistic target), it is gonna be even thougher to sell PS3 as a BR player as there are already a company that announces Profile 2.0 complaint player at 200$ MSRP (probably street price will be even less after a few months).

MS played their hand very well. At 2005, they were the first next-gen console on the market without any competition, so they sold really well. At 2006, the system seller game and probably the first next-gen title, GeoW1, are on their platform, so they again sold really well (Ps3 lack of software library and its price helped into their hand). At 2007, they had the software line-up which PS3 did not have and they sold well again. At 2008, price was the advantage along side with the more family-friendly NXE, so they again sold well. It seems like they have the perfect strategy to go forward.

For this year, I dunno. They are keeping things under wraps very well for some time. My guess is if this motion-controller input does really exist, they are gonna transform the 360 once more, make it really appealing to Wii crowd. With lower price point, better HD experience and better online connectivity, this may be their key to appeal mass market (while still making profits from hardware at 199$ point). If that happens, good luck to Sony for catching up!

 

[Rangers]

maybe so but there should be no debate that GoW2, Fable2 Left 4 Dead had a big impact on the desirability of that system at that price. Sony, even at $299 like 360, would be hard pressed to have the same kind of impact as 360 without those games in it's library. It is evident just looking at the sales of game numbers compared to the user base.

True, we can not jump to conclusions that GoW2 or Fable or L4D would have sold more systems had they been on PS3 but I contend they would have sold more copies than most of sony's games - because they are arguably more compelling than sony's current library.

either that or a lot more Ps3s are being used primarily as blu Ray movie players than game machines than we think.

More compelling to the hardcore gamer who buys PS3 and 360, I would state it as.

Of PS3's big name holiday exclusives, I dont think LBP appealed greatly to the hardcore gamer, and Resistance 2 being an FPS was targeted well at hardcore, but I'd argue it came across as a bland game with underwhelming visuals so didn't make much of a dent. Motorstorm 2 looked good and as a racer was targeted at the HC, but again for whatever reason just disappeared at retail (at least in USA) so wasnt a factor.

 

[Tap In]

More compelling to the hardcore gamer who buys PS3 and 360, I would state it as.

agreed. there are certainly more types of gamers than those games appeal to (see Wii ) but for the HD console gamers there is no question that the library on 360 has consistently been rock solid and always had some kind of a hardcore "hook" game this gen. (Always with several online multiplayer, multi-million seller games burning up the internet at any given time)

 

[Mboojigga]

http://blog.wired.com/games/2009/01/top-10-games-of.html

So one PS3 game that is multiplatform out of the top 20? I wonder if more BR movies were sold during the same period.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

I cant help but feel that many have underestimated the impact the PS3 had on BD players during the first part of 2008 and the latter part of 2007. I have no doubt that many PS3s are used solely for BD playback.

We've had the same argument about the PS2, that most people buy it as a cheap DVD player.

Looking at PS2 hardware sales still going strong, and the amount of games sold on the platform, well - it didn't really work out that way.

 

[obonicus]

I'm not sure the numbers will agree that 'many PS3s are used solely for BRD playback'. Like we've discussed earlier, games do about as well on the PS3 as they do on the 360, relative to the install base. That is, unless you're going to also say that there are lots of people buying the 360 solely as a netflix machine/media extender.

People do buy games for the PS3, they just aren't buying the big first-party exclusives (well, they are, but probably not as fast as Sony'd like).

'PS3 is only a BRD machine' is a meme that probably should die, especially since people can't even agree on it. In a PS3 as a games machine discussion you'll see it used as an argument that the PS3 doesn't sell games. In a BRD discussion you'll see the exact opposite argument made ('people don't necessarily play BRDs on all their PS3s, they don't even have HDTVs!').

 

[Mboojigga]

I'm not sure the numbers will agree that 'many PS3s are used solely for BRD playback'. Like we've discussed earlier, games do about as well on the PS3 as they do on the 360, relative to the install base. That is, unless you're going to also say that there are lots of people buying the 360 solely as a netflix machine/media extender.

People do buy games for the PS3, they just aren't buying the big first-party exclusives (well, they are, but probably not as fast as Sony'd like).

'PS3 is only a BRD machine' is a meme that probably should die, especially since people can't even agree on it. In a PS3 as a games machine discussion you'll see it used as an argument that the PS3 doesn't sell games. In a BRD discussion you'll see the exact opposite argument made ('people don't necessarily play BRDs on all their PS3s, they don't even have HDTVs!').

Either way somthing has happened especially in the last couple of months that the games are not selling as much as they were before. I should have also added that I fall under the category of a PS3 owner that bought the PS3 for games and then movies. Since Sept 07 I have owned only 3 games excluding psn titles. Uncharted, Metal Gear 4, and Hot Shot Golf. I have since went from gaming on it to just watching BR movies and a few PSN titles like Pain. I have owned the 360 since launch and bought two more since even as recent as last month for a 60 gig while I am deployed here in Iraq. Never experienced RROD.
I hear alot of people talking about finally firing up there PS3 for games like Killzone 2 for next month which I am one of them. But I do blame the 360 for the lack of interest I have had for the PS3 becuase of the Live, friends and set standards of features on it. The same thing happen with me when I first owned a PS2 and then got the Xbox and 480p, Live in 2002, Halo, and the controller stopped my purchases for the PS2. The last game after purchasing the Xbox was God of War(one of the best games I ever played at the time)
I think it is a combination of alot of scenarios that are going on as to why the perception is that the PS3 is lagging when it comes to games sold on the system.

 

[woundingchaney]

We've had the same argument about the PS2, that most people buy it as a cheap DVD player.

Looking at PS2 hardware sales still going strong, and the amount of games sold on the platform, well - it didn't really work out that way.

Does the PS2 mimic the PS3s situation in the market though?? If anything the PS3 is not in the position that the PS2 was in at the time nor is it the standard/popular choice for console gaming that the PS2 was. I understand what you are saying but I dont see the direct correlation.

I'm not sure the numbers will agree that 'many PS3s are used solely for BRD playback'. Like we've discussed earlier, games do about as well on the PS3 as they do on the 360, relative to the install base. That is, unless you're going to also say that there are lots of people buying the 360 solely as a netflix machine/media extender.

People do buy games for the PS3, they just aren't buying the big first-party exclusives (well, they are, but probably not as fast as Sony'd like).

'PS3 is only a BRD machine' is a meme that probably should die, especially since people can't even agree on it. In a PS3 as a games machine discussion you'll see it used as an argument that the PS3 doesn't sell games. In a BRD discussion you'll see the exact opposite argument made ('people don't necessarily play BRDs on all their PS3s, they don't even have HDTVs!').

Im not sure that the numbers suggest they arent though. Im not suggesting that the majority of PS3s were bought solely for BD playback, but I do believe a considerable amount of them were sold to people either not interested in gaming or primarily use the device as an entertainment hub (more so in NA than anywhere else of course) with a low level gaming interest. I think it is reasonable to believe that the market the PS3 currently holds is divided amongst the 2 scenarios, though I seriously doubt we will see the PS3 currently selling to BD consumers now or in the future as standalone players become more price friendly and tech. capable.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

The correlation is that the general public views both as a videogame system, regardless of what other abilities they may have. Which is also why they are not buying it, as it costs significantly more then its alternatives; and this is why the PS2 was a popular choice, being as cheap as the Xbox and having more games then the cheaper GC.

It still is all about the games first and foremost.

 

[obonicus]

Either way somthing has happened especially in the last couple of months that the games are not selling as much as they were before. I should have also added that I fall under the category of a PS3 owner that bought the PS3 for games and then movies. Since Sept 07 I have owned only 3 games excluding psn titles. Uncharted, Metal Gear 4, and Hot Shot Golf. I have since went from gaming on it to just watching BR movies and a few PSN titles like Pain. I have owned the 360 since launch and bought two more since even as recent as last month for a 60 gig while I am deployed here in Iraq. Never experienced RROD.

That's all anecdotal. What we know of numbers, at least from NPD is that the same percentage of people are buying games as on the 360. There's no sudden downturn, check catisfit's latest chart. Maybe in the titles that don't hit top ten/twenty there's a world of difference, but we have no way of telling.

If we're talking anecdotal, I bought 3 times as many PS3 games in 2008 as I did 360 games. Hell, I bought more PSP and PS2 games than I did 360 games. But I know that this doesn't mean a trend. It doesn't mean anything other than my preferring to play multiplatform games on the PS3.

I hear alot of people talking about finally firing up there PS3 for games like Killzone 2 for next month which I am one of them. But I do blame the 360 for the lack of interest I have had for the PS3 becuase of the Live, friends and set standards of features on it. The same thing happen with me when I first owned a PS2 and then got the Xbox and 480p, Live in 2002, Halo, and the controller stopped my purchases for the PS2. The last game after purchasing the Xbox was God of War(one of the best games I ever played at the time)

This doesn't mean a thing. Most people don't have two consoles. Maybe people with both prefer the 360 -- but there's not that many of us and we just don't have those numbers. Hell, even if we took all two-HD-console-owning B3Ders it'd still be poor sample for the general population. Even if we could get a good sample and came to a conclusive answer, multiple console owners are such a tiny minority that I doubt they'd seriously impact the NPD numbers (last numbers I saw said that the percentage of people with more than one console was in the single digits, if not the low single digits).

I think it is a combination of alot of scenarios that are going on as to why the perception is that the PS3 is lagging when it comes to games sold on the system.

If there's that perception, it's because of a lack of information. But what does it matter? It's not stopping PS3 owners from buying games at more or less the same rate as 360 owners.

 

[obonicus]

Im not sure that the numbers suggest they arent though. Im not suggesting that the majority of PS3s were bought solely for BD playback, but I do believe a considerable amount of them were sold to people either not interested in gaming or primarily use the device as an entertainment hub (more so in NA than anywhere else of course) with a low level gaming interest.

You can't support this argument with any sort of data. This is just your opinion. The relative attach rates for the top ten NPD is about the same. About the same percentage of PS3 owners as 360 owners are buying games, that's what our limited data tells us.

I think it is reasonable to believe that the market the PS3 currently holds is divided amongst the 2 scenarios, though I seriously doubt we will see the PS3 currently selling to BD consumers now or in the future as standalone players become more price friendly and tech. capable.

No, it's not reasonable. If you're saying there's this division in the market, then wouldn't we be seeing a smaller share of PS3 owners buying games? The only way you can support this argument is if you say that a similar share of 360 owners are buying the 360 to do something other than play games.

Maybe you can say that relatively more PS3 owners are into HD content than 360 owners -- up until the price cut and the lowered cost of BRD players (mid-late 2008?) if you wanted to play BRD and play games, the PS3 was the best choice. But that doesn't translate into 'People who bought PS3 for BRD don't want to play games', because that doesn't seem to match what we're seeing. Again, if anyone has any better source of info, please share it -- there are a few cases of Multiplat games that showed on top-10 for 360 and not for PS3, maybe there's some huge discrepancy there that'd help prove your point.

 

[ninzel]

What's interesting about the Wii software sales is that it's still mainly Nintendo product. In the past it would be understandable because of Nintendo's history of quality and pedigree in the market. It could be easily explained that it was hardcore Nintendo fans automatically buying the next version of (insert Nintendo franchise here).
If this is a new or casual crowd you would think they would have less experience and knowledge of Nintendo product and therefor there would be less loyalty and therefor third parties would have an equal chance.

 

[Sound_Card]

Goes to show execution is king.

 

[Tap In]

You can't support this argument with any sort of data. This is just your opinion. The relative attach rates for the top ten NPD is about the same.

I may have missed that chart comparing the volume of ALL games sold overall each month compared to user base, not just multiplatform.

My perception, looking at the sales data is that game for MP game percentage-wise you may be right, (Cod:WaW notwithstanding is it sold nearly 3 times as much on 360) -But what you may not be accounting for is overall game sales compared to install base.

During the same time frame as selling same name for name on a few MP titles each month top 10/20, 360 was/is selling huge L4D and GoW2 numbers (and other games in similar month /month windows). While during those months Sony's big 1st party games (except the month of MGS4) are not pulling the sales nor maintaining them with as much regularity as 360 games.

 

[obonicus]

I may have missed that chart comparing the volume of ALL games sold overall each month compared to user base, not just multiplatform.

My perception, looking at the sales data is that game for MP game percentage-wise you may be right, (Cod:WaW notwithstanding is it sold nearly 3 times as much on 360) -But what you may not be accounting for is overall game sales compared to install base.

During the same time frame as selling same name for name on a few MP titles each month top 10/20, 360 was/is selling huge L4D and GoW2 numbers (and other games in similar month /month windows). While during those months Sony's big 1st party games (except the month of MGS4) are not pulling the sales nor maintaining them with as much regularity as 360 games.

But you're comparing apples and oranges. Is the PS3 audience not interested in these games, or are they not as compelling as the 360's exclusives? Or is it something else? What do you compare R2 to, GeoW2? What do you compare L4D to PS3-side? Is LBP up against B&K?

Yeah, the PS3 exclusives (with one major exception) aren't selling as well as 360 exclusives. Is it the users who are less likely to buy these games or is Sony investing in games less interesting to the mass market? Does this somehow make the 'people buy PS3s for BRD' claim valid?

 

[Tap In]

But you're comparing apples and oranges. Is the PS3 audience not interested in these games, or are they not as compelling as the 360's exclusives? Or is it something else? What do you compare R2 to, GeoW2? What do you compare L4D to PS3-side? Is LBP up against B&K?

Yeah, the PS3 exclusives (with one major exception) aren't selling as well as 360 exclusives. Is it the users who are less likely to buy these games or is Sony investing in games less interesting to the mass market? Does this somehow make the 'people buy PS3s for BRD' claim valid?

it only says that overall, 360 owners buy more games than relative PS3 owners. From there we can draw our own logical assumptions/opinions, which will vary of course.

 

[obonicus]

it only says that overall, 360 owners buy more games than relative PS3 owners. From there we can draw our own logical assumptions/opinions, which will vary of course.

True.

 

[RobertR1]

According to Sony PR, the PS3 sold around 6mil software units in Dec. According to Donny212 on gaf, who has been tracking sales charts for many years now, that's well below even what the GameCube and Xbox would do in their Dec sales (10million). Also in terms of hardware trends, it looks something like this:
Launch lineup: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=14390830&postcount=1267

Lining stuff up at the 26-month mark:
Wii (Dec 2008): 17.54m
GBA (July 2003): 14.71m
Playstation 2 (Nov 2002): 12.99m
Nintendo DS (Dec 2006): 9.13m
Xbox 360 (Dec 2007): 9.12m
Xbox (Dec 2003): 7.68m
PSP (April 2007): 7.41m
PS3 (Dec 2008): 6.79m
Gamecube (Dec 2003): 6.73m

Wii = PS2 + 35.03%
Xbox 360 = Xbox + 18.75%
PS3 = GCN + 0.89%

Total Wii+360+PS3 = 33.45M
Total PS2+Xbox+GCN = 27.4

This gen = last gen + 22.08%

As for software, the problem is, PS3 exclusives, outside of MGS4, don't seem to gel with the PS3 price point. Perhaps these games would have more appeal to an audience that would be able to justify the console at $199. However, R2/LBP/R2 failed to inspire people to go out and spend $399 to get a PS3 to play these games, in any large amounts.

That's the drawback of a high price. Your games have to justify your price tag and looking at sales figures, that's was not the case for Sony in Q4.

 

[fearsomepirate]

PS3: The Gamecube of the of the HD generation?

That would validate what I said about it earlier.