NPD December 2008

Come off it... it's hugely surprising, and must be a significant blow to Sony. After publicly shouting "2008 will be the year of the PS3", and launching as many high profile games as they did (Resistance 2, MGS4, LBP all hailed as tentpole releases) and they are doing worse than during the disaster that was their 2007.

I'd like to see a quote from you dated from the first half of the year saying PS3 would do worse in December 2008 than December 2007. Or anyone for that matter.
Why did you go as far back as the start of the year? If you asked me at the start of the year, of course I would be surprised. Considering the recent time-line of events, I can honestly say I'm not surprised. Big profile "system sellers" only temporarily boost sales - it's a combination of price and software that ultimately sells consoles, and the PS3 is still too expensive to dip into the casual market.
 
Come off it... it's hugely surprising, and must be a significant blow to Sony. After publicly shouting "2008 will be the year of the PS3", and launching as many high profile games as they did (Resistance 2, MGS4, LBP all hailed as tentpole releases) and they are doing worse than during the disaster that was their 2007.

Wait, what frame of reference are we talking about? The big shock came in November. Why would anyone think December was going to be some huge turnaround? We've had what, four months of the PS3 doing poorly?

I'd like to see a quote from you dated from the first half of the year saying PS3 would do worse in December 2008 than December 2007. Or anyone for that matter.

Well, yes, most people would be surprised about that. They'd also be surprised by the state of the economy a year later. There's a ton of things that'd be absolutely startling to someone who was transplanted from late 2007 into late 2008. But for those of us who've actually lived through this year, no, it's not that surprising.
 
Why did you go as far back as the start of the year? If you asked me at the start of the year, of course I would be surprised. Considering the recent time-line of events, I can honestly say I'm not surprised. Big profile "system sellers" only temporarily boost sales - it's a combination of price and software that ultimately sells consoles, and the PS3 is still too expensive to dip into the casual market.
By "recent timeline of events" I take it you mean the 360's price cut. That should be been fairly obvious a mile away - most users on B3D were moaning about the 360's idiotic delay to drop the price since Jan/Feb. That was always going to happen pre-Christmas. The fact that it took as long as it did surprised more people than that it happened when it did.

The surprise here of course isn't that the 360 is doing well - it's that the PS3 is doing worse than last holiday season.

Oh and the year on year stuff is true - but I don't really think the PS3 should have pride in improving over 2007... it wasn't just expected, it was necessary for the machine to survive. The 360 of course had a fairly flat time, but again, 2007's numbers were great, and this years was also quite good. Not DS/Wii good (which are :oops:), but certainly very respectable.
 
Wait, what frame of reference are we talking about? The big shock came in November. Why would anyone think December was going to be some huge turnaround? We've had what, four months of the PS3 doing poorly?



Well, yes, most people would be surprised about that. They'd also be surprised by the state of the economy a year later. There's a ton of things that'd be absolutely startling to someone who was transplanted from late 2007 into late 2008. But for those of us who've actually lived through this year, no, it's not that surprising.
obonicus - I guess what you're saying is that based on information available mid-December it was expected that the PS3 would have a worse year than last year at the same price with a better catalogue of games. On this point, I disagree. You're also saying that before that point, it would have been a surprise. I of course agree here.
 
By "recent timeline of events" I take it you mean the 360's price cut. That should be been fairly obvious a mile away - most users on B3D were moaning about the 360's idiotic delay to drop the price since Jan/Feb. That was always going to happen pre-Christmas. The fact that it took as long as it did surprised more people than that it happened when it did.

The surprise here of course isn't that the 360 is doing well - it's that the PS3 is doing worse than last holiday season.

Oh and the year on year stuff is true - but I don't really think the PS3 should have pride in improving over 2007... it wasn't just expected, it was necessary for the machine to survive. The 360 of course had a fairly flat time, but again, 2007's numbers were great, and this years was also quite good. Not DS/Wii good (which are :oops:), but certainly very respectable.
By recent timeline of events, I mean the 360 getting a price cut and Sony not responding, games like LBP and Resistance 2 not moving systems, and that in November, the PS3 was already down from last year. My reply was to Laa-Yosh, who seemed genuinely surprised that the PS3 is down from last year. I'm sure all of us know what has happened recently, so all things considered, how can you still be surprised?
 
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obonicus - I guess what you're saying is that based on information available mid-December it was expected that the PS3 would have a worse year than last year at the same price with a better catalogue of games. On this point, I disagree. You're also saying that before that point, it would have been a surprise. I of course agree here.

Well, like I said, the real upset came in November. That's when we first saw the PS3 do worse in 2007 than 2008. That was surprising. This is a lot more predictable, very little has changed from November to December: last week (maybe the week before?) Tretton was essentially telling us that the PS3 was going to do worse, though he was masking it with some pretty confusing wording.
 
The biggest thing that happened this holiday season for the PS3 is the lack of response to the PS3 exclusives for the holiday season. R2, MS2, LBP simply failed to draw an audience that would lead to sales. None of them got the attention they needed from the public to sell hardware.

The Wii clearly has it's undying appeal with Wii Fit, Mario Kart and clearly many others.

The 360 did well with Gears 2, Fable 2, L4D. CoD:WaW did huge numbers on the 360 also.

At the end of the day, holiday sales are about market buzz and perception. The reception of your offerings by the masses will determine your sales. While Q4 is generally the biggest it's also the most "casual." Now you can say "how is it casual when CoD sells that much!?" Because that's the hype and the buzz. That's what the mass consumers work off. The Wii has a ridiculous amount of this public perception going for it. Followed by the 360 and then the PS3.
 
Damnations!!! the PS2 keeps its home console record of 2.7 million (although the DS already smashed that so keeping it in the family)

Vgchartz had a major adjustment for the Wii a few days ago, so you could tell that NPD was going to show a big difference to most ppl's predictions (pacther was like over 1 million consoles off)

also wtf at Wiiplay..... thats an attachment rate of like 75 percent for the month......you can tell what was a common stocking stuffer this christmas.
 
Wii Play is an automatic buy really. You clearly need an extra controller. Might as well drop another $10 to get a disc with a bunch of mini games on it.
 
IMHO, the price point is far more important than the software lineup. I think the 360's success is mostly because of the price cuts and timing of them, and that it has little to do with Gears 2, Fable 2 etc. The PS3 will never compete with the 360 and Wii at 399, even if they clearly had a better software lineup.
 
IMHO, the price point is far more important than the software lineup. I think the 360's success is mostly because of the price cuts and timing of them, and that it has little to do with Gears 2, Fable 2 etc. The PS3 will never compete with the 360 and Wii at 399, even if they clearly had a better software lineup.

I'm not talking about competing with the others. I'm talking about improving your own numbers. Let's say GT5 released this holiday season. you really think the PS3 Q4 sales would be down from last years? It really is about the games....
 
yah, but the attachment rate is usually like 50%

Wiiplay should be renamed Wiiprey.....because its one of the biggest scams in videogaming..... :p

its like a techdemo which was probably made by the work experience guy over the weekend and Nintendo is raking in the moolah from it.

but the strange thing is that so many people seem to have lots of fun playing it......including my Dad..... so I'm probably being a prejudiced dick :)
 
I'm not talking about competing with the others. I'm talking about improving your own numbers. Let's say GT5 released this holiday season. you really think the PS3 Q4 sales would be down from last years? It really is about the games....
But what do you think would cause a bigger increase in sales, a price cut, or a GT5 release? Like I said, big profile games temporarily boost sales, the cost of a console will have a bigger impact on sales initially and in the long run. The casual market is the biggest of them all, and like I said before, the PS3 is still too expensive to dip into that market, and they will never be able to compete or improve on their numbers unless they get their price down. That's what I think anyway. :smile:
 
But what do you think would cause a bigger increase in sales, a price cut, or a GT5 release? Like I said, big profile games temporarily boost sales, the cost of a console will have a bigger impact on sales initially and in the long run.

The Holiday season boost of Nov and Dec is temporary. Why price cut and bleed when you can make yourself more appealing with a software lineup that the masses eat up and help you sell more consoles?

MGS4, in the middle of summer gave the PS3 a big bump. There was no price drop either at that time. Was it a bad thing to have an appealing game give you a hardware bump (even in temporary sense as you stated) vs bleed money from a price cut for a sustained boost? The effects of a software lineup that's appealing is great because not only do you sell hardware but you don't have to cut hardware prices to do it. Look at how the Wii manages to keep selling out at $249 without even a $1 price drop. It's the appeal of the software lineup. NOT TO ME!!! but many others clearly. Especially the masses who go out in force and soak up the buzz during the holiday season.
 
The Holiday season boost of Nov and Dec is temporary. Why price cut and bleed when you can make yourself more appealing with a software lineup that the masses eat up and help you sell more consoles?
All I'm saying is a price cut (especially when you hit the sweet spot) will have more impact on hardware sales than a better software lineup. I was replying to you specifically when I said that I think the 360's success this November/December was more to do with the pricecut.

Doing it around the holiday season is ideal, because that's the biggest time of the year. It's a great way to build momentum IMO.

MGS4, in the middle of summer gave the PS3 a big bump. There was no price drop either at that time. Was it a bad thing to have an appealing game give you a hardware bump (even in temporary sense as you stated) vs bleed money from a price cut for a sustained boost?
That was then, when the PS3's lineup wasn't anything to brag about. Not to mention it was bundled with the PS3. I think the PS3's lineup is strong enough that a price cut is more important than a better software lineup at this point. 399 is too expensive to build on, you have to dip into that casual market, where I'm sure the majority of them aren't willing to drop $400 on a video game machine.
 
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IMHO, the price point is far more important than the software lineup. I think the 360's success is mostly because of the price cuts and timing of them, and that it has little to do with Gears 2, Fable 2 etc. The PS3 will never compete with the 360 and Wii at 399, even if they clearly had a better software lineup.

I'd have to disagree here as it doesn't explain the vast difference in multi-platform sales. COD: WAW sold more than double its PS3 counterpart. There are a bunch of multi-platform titles that sell vastly better on the 360, even after you take into account the user base difference. The only reason PS3 is as close as it is to the 360 given its price is because of its exclusives, otherwise why pay more.

From a hardware perspective, I agree the price difference is the biggest variable.

I certainly hope that the PS3 competes with the X360 since I believe it's necessary to not have either MS or Sony gain a dominating position in Next Gen. Even better if the Wii, PS3 and 360 gain some kind of parity, but at this point that's just wishful thinking.

Question? If KZ2 doesn't turn this around, what's the next bullet in the PS3 arsenal? I really like what I see so far and I hope it plays a great as it looks.
 
I'd have to disagree here as it doesn't explain the vast difference in multi-platform sales. COD: WAW sold more than double its PS3 counterpart. There are a bunch of multi-platform titles that sell vastly better on the 360, even after you take into account the user base difference. The only reason PS3 is as close as it is to the 360 given its price is because of its exclusives, otherwise why pay more.
Multi-platform games have always sold considerably more on 360, with a few rare exceptions like Assassin's Creed. And the 360's install base is more than double the PS3's. Regardless, I think it's a moot poit TBH... I don't see how the gap widening ever so slightly between multi-platform games shows that the 360's increase is due to the software more so than the price cut.

Question? If KZ2 doesn't turn this around, what's the next bullet in the PS3 arsenal? I really like what I see so far and I hope it plays a great as it looks.
Again, I don't think software alone can turn this around. I think a price cut to 299 paired with KZ2 is a good start though.
 
Hi,

The PS3 is down year on year. If these sentiments keep growing then i fear a price drop may not even be enough for Sony. What do you think?

Bye!
 
Hi,

The PS3 is down year on year. If these sentiments keep growing then i fear a price drop may not even be enough for Sony. What do you think?

Bye!

It's sales are down in comparison to holiday 07 but year over year sales are up with almost 1 million more units sold in 2008 than 2007.
 
IMHO, the price point is far more important than the software lineup.

If that were the case then I'd expect the software lineup to sell adequately... but the software numbers can only be called disappointing. R2 has been outsold nearly 5-to-1 by Gears 2. MS2 is tracking below Viva Pinata Party Animals and far below PGR4, both of which were commercial failures, and both of which were installed with equivalent installed base. The lukewarm exclusives have got to be contributing to the reduced console sales vs. last year.
 
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