NPD December 2008
- Thread starter RobertR1
- Start date
whats over shipped mean , if they have a console left on shelves anywhere taht means its over shipped ?
so every console needs to be sold to not have been over shipped? Wouldn't the goal be to provide enough units during the shipping period and slightly aftwards so that come the first week of january or what have you customers who had gift cards and recieved cash from teh holidays wouldn't walk in to find barren shelves ?
I don't know , when you factor in world wide and having some consoles for early january and just generaly in the supply pipeline is that hard to find ?
I highly doubt that sony sold all that it shipped either. I think the only one that did that was nintendo and even then who knows , there could be a system some where that went unsold. I know my local toys r us had a few brain age bundles of the ds in that blue color a week after christmas
If they ship less than the customary 1.3 million or so this Q when we get the April report, I'd say it's a sign of overshipment, sure.
MS hasn't overshipped since they did so to hit the 10m target though. I see no particular reason they would (no nice round number they were trying to hit).
MS hasn't overshipped since they did so to hit the 10m target though. I see no particular reason they would (no nice round number they were trying to hit).
@eastmen, You can't justify it with having units ready for sale in January, as a similar argument would explain units from the previous quarter as well. Shipping isn't something that happens only 4 times a year. Overshipping does not mean that there is one unsold unit somewhere, it means that there are a significant number of unsold units around - enough to cover a significant length of time into the future during which no further units will be required from the manufacturer.
It's hard to say what is customary. Jan-Mar numbers previously have been:
06: 1.75m (still potentially supply limited post launch)
07: 0.5m (first quarter after overshipment)
08: 1.3m (rumours of more supply limits)
2009 Q1 is coming off the back of the best sales quarter in 360 history (regardless of overshipping or not, it still was), a lower price than ever and some decent releases due. It's difficult to pin down exactly what is an expected quarter shipment for Jan-Mar 09.
Agreed, there's no real reason for Microsoft to overship. But overshipping doesn't have to mean a nefarious practice to artificially inflate figures, it could just be a prediction (based on a combination of Microsoft internal data, analyst predictions, retailer feedback) which was a bit higher than what actually turned out to be the case.
It's hard to say what is customary. Jan-Mar numbers previously have been:
06: 1.75m (still potentially supply limited post launch)
07: 0.5m (first quarter after overshipment)
08: 1.3m (rumours of more supply limits)
2009 Q1 is coming off the back of the best sales quarter in 360 history (regardless of overshipping or not, it still was), a lower price than ever and some decent releases due. It's difficult to pin down exactly what is an expected quarter shipment for Jan-Mar 09.
Agreed, there's no real reason for Microsoft to overship. But overshipping doesn't have to mean a nefarious practice to artificially inflate figures, it could just be a prediction (based on a combination of Microsoft internal data, analyst predictions, retailer feedback) which was a bit higher than what actually turned out to be the case.
GAF called, it wants its attitude back.
Is there anything you've seen/heard which would suggest the Arcade was undershipped and the other two SKUs were overshipped? I'd have thought that after 13 quarters Microsoft would be comfortable enough with their SKU sales breakdown to predict it forward with reasonable accuracy.
Also, thanks. I never knew that international corporations operate in such a reckless manner concerning their performance against competitors from elsewhere in the world. Although perhaps it does explain the American automotive industry
Well I apologise then. After the worldwide shipment numbers from Microsoft, I thought the conversation had similarly steered in that direction. But yes this is the NPD thread so such worldwide discussion should be had somewhere else.
there are allways units enroute some where in the pipe line. Also I believe that most factorys in china were closed the first week or two of january which means companys would wnat to move units before that time frame. I heard when the xbxo launched that it would take 6 weeks for a console to go from the factory and make it to US shores . IF thats true you will allways have units in flight and will never truely sell out of your shipment for the quarter.
If 6 week is correct that means consoles arriving in the usa as late as the middle of febuary could be counted in its last quater shiped amounts esp if they are counting from the factory and now when they land here
it was really the elite that sat on shelves. They seemed to do a pretty good job with the pro units as there were very few of them in stock wherever I went. The arcades were almost allways sold out those. YOu could get an elite at anytime
I simply misunderstood. I thought you meant NPD was everything worldwide (i.e. MS don't care about Euro/Japan sales), hence my sarcastic response. I agree that the NPD estimates are probably not far off the precise numbers for Toys 'R Us and Walmart, and that NPD numbers can be thought of as pretty much definitive for US sales.
@eastmen: Again, if you're counting Jan to mid-Feb as Oct-Dec shipped units, then you have to count all units Oct to mid-Nov as Jul-Sep shipments. You can't justify it one way at the exclusion of the other. It's a 3 month window, whenever it starts or finishes.
Taking your explanation at face value, I'd expect Oct to mid-Nov units to be higher than Jan to mid-Feb, which makes 6m look even less likely (as you'd actually be talking 2.2m from mid-Aug to mid-Nov, and 6m for mid-Nov to mid-Feb in that case).
Your local stores are insignificant to a worldwide (or even US) generalisation.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Well yeah that's how it works. I don't understand how and why Microsoft would force retailers to order significantly more units, than what the retailers expect to sell in a reasonable timeframe, when in this case it really wouldn't benefit Microsoft or anyone else either. If there has been overshipping it's probably due to retailers expecting more X360 sales. The 06 situation was different and I'm pretty sure MS offered some heavy incentives to retailers for their cooperation that allowed MS to reach that 10M.
I've said i don't know how ms counts. Do you ?
If ms's 2nd quater sales start in october and they count anything they sold through retailers as of october then that would obviously be diffrent than items they sold in sept that had not yet moved.
Sold numbers for ms and NPD are both a diffrent set of numbers. When ms states a number its what they sold to retailers and when NPD reports numbers is the amount of sales that the retail stores have generated on a certian product. Those two numbers should never align because that means ms would have empty shelves at the end of every reporting period.
I'm pretty sure everybody understands this.
Shipping isn't a once-per-quarter thing, for starters. There is a lag in feedback between shipping consoles out and finding out how many have been sold and need further shipments, which means there is an element of prediction. But it's not like they ship out x million consoles on October 1st and hope it's enough that there is still stock left on December 31st!
Besides which, following your logic, each quarter ends up with shipped amounts higher than retail sales amounts, meaning there must be a black hole somewhere where these cumulative extra unsold units disappear into?
I'm not sure quite what you're trying to justify here, I don't follow your logic.
I'm pretty sure everybody understands this.
Shipping isn't a once-per-quarter thing, for starters. There is a lag in feedback between shipping consoles out and finding out how many have been sold and need further shipments, which means there is an element of prediction. But it's not like they ship out x million consoles on October 1st and hope it's enough that there is still stock left on December 31st!
Besides which, following your logic, each quarter ends up with shipped amounts higher than retail sales amounts, meaning there must be a black hole somewhere where these cumulative extra unsold units disappear into?
I'm not sure quite what you're trying to justify here, I don't follow your logic.
your not following. There is allways a delay between the items leaving the factorys and making it to store shelves , at launch with the shortages ms was claiming 6 weeks by boat which is the cheapest way to move the units.
Ms may very well ship units every few weeks once they get enough to fill up a boat to a port or what have you. I doubt they ship only ocne per quarter and your the only one saying that. I think they ship every week or so.
however there is no black hole they disapear into. They are constantly put on shelves and sold to customers. Bestbuy for example has a warehouse that gets in a bulk amount of units per district (Depending on where the warehouse is it might serve multiple districts) and from there its shipped out in smaller quanities based on need.
Items shipped at the end of december may count in decembers and thus q2's sales but may not arrive on store shelves till febuary. MS doesn't care about that , they only care that Bestbuy for instance paid for delievery of the items and to MS once they are enroute they are sold. They may not counting them as sold till they hit state side though. i don't know how they count but they can count either way.
Its not very hard to follow. You constantly have x amount of units in flight and depending on when ms officaly counts them as sold depends on what quater some of them are sold in. It could very well be that the first units sold in january npds were part of q2 shippments for ms
You're right, I'm really, really not
You tried to justify a larger shipped figure in the quarter than can be explained by sales, by claiming that if it were any different, there would be empty shelves at the end of the quarter. I pointed out your logic was incorrect, as feedback from retailers influences future shipments throughout a quarter.
The only time shelves can be bare is between the sale of the last unit of shipment n-1, and the arrival of shipment n. For that to only occur at the end of the quarter as you said, is to imply only one shipment per quarter, at the start of it. Otherwise how do you explain it not happening in, say, mid-November? Why do you assert it only happens at the end of the quarter?
Furthermore, your explanation also falls over when you look at multiple quarters. If you are correct when you say that a larger shipped figure than sales figure in a quarter is to prevent empty shelves, then by implication after two, four, forty quarters, this surplus is going to increase cumulatively. Of course this is ridiculous. In actual fact what happens is, if there are any surplus units from a shipment then the retailer reduces their request for a future shipment to redress the balance. The clearest example of this (large enough to be clearly visible in the quarterly numbers) was Oct-Dec 06 and the following two quarters.
As for your final point. Of course there is a delay between the units being shipped and the units being sold (by definition, the unit has to be shipped before it can be sold, right?). So you are correct, some units might appear as shipped in Oct-Dec, but sold in Jan-Mar. But again, your logic fails, because by the exact same argument, some units might appear as shipped in Jul-Sep but sold in Oct-Dec. You are once again trying to justify an increase by looking at the end of a quarter, without applying your own argument to the start of a quarter where it has the opposite effect.
To be honest, I'm becoming a little tired of being your sounding board for ever more illogical explanations for a larger shipped number than looks plausible. Considering this was your first post in the discussion...
...I no longer wish to be your personal "shipment tutor", and perhaps this thread can move on?
I'm in Punta Cana on vacation and happened to wander into a magazine shop looking for something to read. I saw what looked like an official Nintendo magazine called Club Nintendo and it was dated January 2009 so it was current.
It was in Spanish I think, but weird thing was the entire magazine was about Gamecube and GC games like Wind Waker. I guess Nintendo still supports GC in certain markets.
It was in Spanish I think, but weird thing was the entire magazine was about Gamecube and GC games like Wind Waker. I guess Nintendo still supports GC in certain markets.
They said they are still on course for 10m this FY, which puts the estimated Jan-Mar shipment at >=1.55m (same as their Apr-Jun number). We will indeed see.
