NPD December 2007

The average deviation of VGChartz from NPD this month is 12.7%. That's really not that horrible for an amateur site, although they really need to stop reporting their estimates out to nine significant figures! The Wii numbers are consistently high. I kind of wonder why.
 
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That is ridiculous, 109k sounds decent for UT3? 200k is good for Uncharted? in December? Those are July numbers! I'm sure Sony is not happy with the latter, PR be damned. As for UT3, I'm pretty sure the publisher was in no way expecting sales this low...
Completely agree. They are ridiculously low numbers for December. Especially considering they're supposedly-good exclusives for a game-starved console.

Let's look at the big picture. The PS3's selling a lot lower than the 360 and it's games are even lower per-console. I think a lot more people are using the PS3 as a media extender or Bluray player than we first thought, because they're certainly not using it for gaming.

If there was a time for Sony to hit the panic button, this is it.
 
Sounds pretty rough for Epic in general. Combined with PC sales, UT3 is not anywhere near to what Gears did. It might be down to marketing (I certainly never saw a TV commercial up here), but maybe the game type just isn't as readily accessible to the mainstream. The game is essentially a multiplayer-online game, no matter what Epic tried to do with cut scenes in the single player or "co-op" (sales must still be a lot better than what Unreal Championship 2 achieved on Xbox).
 
That is ridiculous, 109k sounds decent for UT3? 200k is good for Uncharted? in December? Those are July numbers! I'm sure Sony is not happy with the latter, PR be damned. As for UT3, I'm pretty sure the publisher was in no way expecting sales this low...

In a way they Sony kind of wins. I suspect that just like Gears, Devs will likely get the UT3 source code to help in moving thier UE3 games along on the PS3. Epic kind of wins as well. People will likely be happier with their engine.
 
That is ridiculous, 109k sounds decent for UT3? 200k is good for Uncharted? in December? Those are July numbers! I'm sure Sony is not happy with the latter, PR be damned. As for UT3, I'm pretty sure the publisher was in no way expecting sales this low...

I thought UT3 was released on 12/11/2007 (That's half a month of Dec sale) ? Besides the relatively quiet release, they even mentioned that not all stores get it on that day due to the last minute rush/change in date.

As for Uncharted, as long as it continues to sell strongly, it should be fine.
 
I thought UT3 was released on 12/11/2007 (That's half a month of Dec sale) ? Besides the relatively quiet release, they even mentioned that not all stores get it on that day due to the last minute rush/change in date.

As for Uncharted, as long as it continues to sell strongly, it should be fine.
Is 200,000 in the #1 game-selling month "strongly"? I would consider it below par for an AAA game at best.
 
Yes they should outside resistance no exclusive has done even saints freaking row numbers. Projects taking several years and 20+ million dollars are not outselling a GTA knock off. The user bases are similar enough last year for a fair comparision. COD4 and AC sold solid enough so there is no real excuse for PS3 exclusives to sell like they are.
I wonder how much 360 software sold when that GTA knock off (or Crackdown) was released, since they are continuously being brought up.
My guess i sony and its hyping future games.
No it's not (the reason).
People are putting off purchases because of it.
Who would buy a console to keep it dusted for a year or so? I mean come on, a couple of people maybe but a significant fraction?
While the activision was pushing is games like a mother this holiday season. The whole sony marketing team failed 2 great games in uncharted and r&c.

I don't see any mystery here, at least not any more than Mass Effect sales on 360.
I wish people stop searching for one.
 
Most of that criticism is due to the 'just wait til xxx' comments. The next game was always supposed to be the game that turned the disappointing ps3 sales into a juggernaut like the ps2. It quite simply is not going to happen in the US.

Please refresh my memory, when was the last time we have seen a comment like "wait until Uncharted". Just curious.

wouldn't be surprised if it's anytime recent though, since we have our fair share of blind fanboys, still I don't really remember any.
 
I wonder how much 360 software sold when that GTA knock off (or Crackdown) was released, since they are continuously being brought up.

No it's not (the reason).

Who would buy a console to keep it dusted for a year or so? I mean come on, a couple of people maybe but a significant fraction?


I don't see any mystery here, at least not any more than Mass Effect sales on 360.
I wish people stop searching for one.

There were very good reasons to rush out to get an early PS3 over the other consoles. The handling of the backwards compatibility. I've never seen the 40GB over the 80GB at Amazon in the sales charts.
 
I

I don't see any mystery here, at least not any more than Mass Effect sales on 360.
I wish people stop searching for one.

Mass effect has almost done a million copies this holiday season in NA along. Very good for a new RPG/shooter hybrid RPG. Mass effect is just another notch in the 360 million seller belt. It sold very well considering the competion on the 360 for sales. In a log jam of holiday games MS pulled out another million seller.

Uncharted should of been sony's Gears this holiday season. If uncharted was on the 360 it would of done gears like numbers. Instead of pushing uncharted all I hear from sony is KZ2, MGS4, KZ2, KZ2 did I mention KZ2. They sent a great AAA game out to pretty much fall on its sword.
 
Is 200,000 in the #1 game-selling month "strongly"? I would consider it below par for an AAA game at best.

In one of the earlier posts, AC and CoD4 for PS3 sold 450K and 500K respectively with proper marketing (hype, reviews, TV ads close to launch). It would seem that UT3 might achieve slightly less than half that number without any major exposure and with limited quantity at first (i.e., assuming it's a full month sale).

In fact, people in my office didn't even know UT3 was released until they saw my copy on the shelf. By then, we were already too "busy" with our lives and holiday plans. Then, user mods weren't available/working until Jan 2008 (Although I think Epic might have made one available late Dec). So there is little multiplier effect. As with PS3 initially, Sony and Epic relied on the game to sell itself organically in Dec 2007.

Hence, I said the sales is decent for what they managed to do (or not do).
 
There were very good reasons to rush out to get an early PS3 over the other consoles. The handling of the backwards compatibility. I've never seen the 40GB over the 80GB at Amazon in the sales charts.
Let's assume all of the 60-80GB sales after the announcement were to people who are waiting for hyped future exclusives. Let's shamelessly overestimate this number to be 1million.

So if we correct current exclusive sales by +50% (since they sold to an effective 2million userbase), do they become acceptable? Is the mystery solved for, for example, R&C?

Mass effect has almost done a million copies this holiday season in NA along. Very good for a new RPG/shooter hybrid RPG. Mass effect is just another notch in the 360 million seller belt. It sold very well considering the competion on the 360 for sales. In a log jam of holiday games MS pulled out another million seller.
So in short Mass effect did very good, but Uncharted was a big flop. I love this. Nothing else to add.
Uncharted should of been sony's Gears this holiday season. If uncharted was on the 360 it would of done gears like numbers. Instead of pushing uncharted all I hear from sony is KZ2, MGS4, KZ2, KZ2 did I mention KZ2. They sent a great AAA game out to pretty much fall on its sword.
I doubt Gears would sell like Gears if it was released this holiday season.
Anyway, clearly you don't know what Uncharted is. They share very little besides a cover system and shooting people (time to time in case of Uncharted).

Both sold through over 400k units at release.
I meant the total software sales, as in the competition they were up against.
 
Completely agree. They are ridiculously low numbers for December. Especially considering they're supposedly-good exclusives for a game-starved console.

Let's look at the big picture. The PS3's selling a lot lower than the 360 and it's games are even lower per-console. I think a lot more people are using the PS3 as a media extender or Bluray player than we first thought, because they're certainly not using it for gaming.

If there was a time for Sony to hit the panic button, this is it.

I hope so, they should consolidate to one model with backward compatibility and sell it at $349.99, accompanied by a media blitz for price, blu-ray, backwards compatibility(emphasize both playstation 2 and playstion 1 along with dvd player capability to show consumers that it is an outstanding value.), ps3 games and upcoming games. Re-release a few games in a greatest hits line too(even if they've not sold enough for a playstation 2 greatest hits status).

I also believe they should stop the 10-20M dolllar games, and try to focus on smaller and more diverse games. Mix youtube and social site things on some games, pokemon clonelike games for ps3 and psp, try revolutionary gameplay on other titles. Their first party titles have shown time and again that their developers are indeed capable of AAA excellence. It is time to use this excellent talent, not for a few high budget specialty titles, but multiple medium budget titles exploring multiple genres, and creating new genres. Doing this they stand a chance of getting games that will sell on word of mouth, and they might have a better chance of finding this generations' 'gta'.

If they managed to get this generations' 'gta' like phenomenon game, they'd be able to turn the tables.
 
Uncharted should of been sony's Gears this holiday season. If uncharted was on the 360 it would of done gears like numbers. Instead of pushing uncharted all I hear from sony is KZ2, MGS4, KZ2, KZ2 did I mention KZ2. They sent a great AAA game out to pretty much fall on its sword.

There seems to be too much mystique around Uncharted IMO; I can say with comfort - though certainly cannot be sure - that if Uncharted had released on 360 instead it would *not* be posting Gears-like sales numbers. Why would it? The game is excellent, but the theme is off from what the mainstream is interested in for the most part. The news that it is selling better in Europe than in the US I think speaks to its 'near-miss' quality in terms of American appeal. Frankly, I think if it reaches to profitability and beyond, it will have been deemed a success and a solid contribution to the library. I know I enjoy it.

Japan is meaningless to anything but the Wii and DS. There is not enough sales of the PS3 to support any real game development.

If you look at the weekly Famitsu numbers, PS3 is selling ~200k/month at present, which isn't too shabby truth be told. It's certainly not the Wii/DS, but at the same time I think it's a little hasty to be dismissive to that extent.

Kind of interesting to me how AC consistently sells into PS3 userbase percentage relative to COD4 more than 360. Probably speaks to Live being a arguably better platform right now, as I'm sure much of COD4 is multiplayer based sales.

I'm going to say though that most PS3 owners who own either Resistance or Warhawk would say that those two games both offer a more compelling multiplayer option over COD4 to begin with, so I simply think the userbase need for the game is lessened to an extent. Assassins Creed on the other hand fills the same space on PS3 that it fills on 360, that being a space not otherwise occupied (Medieval Free-Roamer?) Plus, the game was of course hyped to all hell. ;)

Lastly in terms of Unreal Tournament, although again we hear calls of what its sales could've been on 360 - and I don't disagree - I think it's worth pointing some things out.

Firstly, it sold a lot better on PS3 than it did on PC, and *PC* was the lead platform. Crysis and COD4 itself by the way are other high-profile PC games that have sold poorly. Secondly the game launched on PS3 in mid-December, after all holiday shopping had essentially concluded and the launch hype had died down. I learned it was released by accident almost, and certainly all I had read beforehand was news of its delay until 08. Frankly, they just should have delayed it until Feb or March, because it got lost in the shuffle. I don't think these are the sales Epic wanted for sure, but they fumbled the release - and the press surrounding it - in a big way. And again, I think truthfully they've got to be happier with the PS3 performance than the PC performance right about now...

@NavNuc: I got your PM from a couple of days ago - haven't had the chance to respond yet, but I will! :)
 
If you look at the weekly Famitsu numbers, PS3 is selling ~200k/month at present, which isn't too shabby truth be told. It's certainly not the Wii/DS, but at the same time I think it's a little hasty to be dismissive to that extent.

It was the holiday season and tonights MC is the first post holiday season. Everyone is down the PS3 is back to 38k again. Also the PS3 puts hardly and games in the top 30 let alone top 10 of the MC. Until the PS3 starts moving software in japan it is basically meaningless except for WW number padding.

my source for MC numbers.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=228836
 
Let's assume all of the 60-80GB sales after the announcement were to people who are waiting for hyped future exclusives. Let's shamelessly overestimate this number to be 1million.

So if we correct current exclusive sales by +50% (since they sold to an effective 2million userbase), do they become acceptable? Is the mystery solved for, for example, R&C?


So in short Mass effect did very good, but Uncharted was a big flop. I love this. Nothing else to add.

I doubt Gears would sell like Gears if it was released this holiday season.
Anyway, clearly you don't know what Uncharted is. They share very little besides a cover system and shooting people (time to time in case of Uncharted).


I meant the total software sales, as in the competition they were up against.

There are 2 things we can look at regarding a title's sales numbers, its attach rate and its total sales numbers. Uncharted, a high budget, exclusive 1st party title, sold to about 10% of PS3 owners in the 2 busiest months of the year. If the install base was 30million, people would accept that as very good sales, but it's not when your install base is 3.24 million.

I'm certain Mass Effect is much closer to meeting expectations for its sales in the US than Uncharted.

As the install base for a system goes up, the attach rate for individual titles usually declines. Certainly Halo3 is the poster child for US attach rate with ~53%, but keep in mind Gears of War was probably the closest to that number before it. Now perhaps it wouldn't have done as well in a much more crowded environment, but I think its safe to say it would have done good numbers. Obviously Uncharted isn't the same as Gears, and it lacks some of the things that made Gears popular, Coop and Multi-player, while it adds elements that have proven much less popular (platforming). What puzzles me however is why Assassin's Creed is doing so much better than Uncharted on the same platform? Is it all down to better advertising?
 
Assassin's Creed is certainly a mystery. I played a good chunk of but didn't finish it. There is no way I would recommend this game to another player. It seems unlikely that it got good word of mouth advertising.

At best I would describe it as a promising but very unfinished game. And that is being generous.

I know AC got good TV ads during sporting events and such in the US. But did it get significantly more than other games? I don't know.

Maybe the Box art is very compelling? Making it an easy choice for unaware holiday shoppers?

Maybe it was the Jade Raymond effect?

I think the whole industry is going to be scratching their heads about this for a while. Gears was an obvious case of being the right game at the right time. But AC's success seems to define normal explanations.
 
It was the holiday season and tonights MC is the first post holiday season. Everyone is down the PS3 is back to 38k again. Also the PS3 puts hardly and games in the top 30 let alone top 10 of the MC. Until the PS3 starts moving software in japan it is basically meaningless except for WW number padding.

my source for MC numbers.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=228836
January is always slow. i was actually surprised that they sold ~64k in the first week of January. for December, they sold around 250k.
 
I also believe they should stop the 10-20M dolllar games, and try to focus on smaller and more diverse games.

They didn't put a kickass CPU and a 50 GB optical drive in it to turn it into a $400 DS.

As for the "wait for the mods for UT3" slogan... I think those who put too much faith in user-generated content will be in for a rude awakening when Little Big Planet hits.
 
Assassin's Creed is certainly a mystery. I played a good chunk of but didn't finish it. There is no way I would recommend this game to another player. It seems unlikely that it got good word of mouth advertising.

[snip]

I think the whole industry is going to be scratching their heads about this for a while. Gears was an obvious case of being the right game at the right time. But AC's success seems to define normal explanations.

I have two colleagues here who's first PS3 discs are both Assassin's Creed. They're 20 hours into the game each, and they are absolutely loving it. They are playing in that they are basically trying absolutely everything, and they absolutely love the game.

I think that's your answer right there. Disappointments come from these sources:

1. it's simply not your kind of game. nobody likes all games
2. your expectancies were different from what the game delivered
3. you played through it only minding the main assassinations, not going for all the little things there are to do
4. you are too hardcore a gamer and the things you can do in the game are too simplistic to what you are used to

But the game has a lot of strong points as well, and they chime with a large audience. Sure, discerning gamers may feel/see that Crackdown does it better, for instance, but that title didn't have the marketing push, didn't have the Prince of Persia pedigree, and does it really have the same cool factor/appeal in subject matter? I doubt it, and it suffers additionally from not being a multi-platform game (i.e. even less exposure). And even if people did love Crackdown, then surely they'd enjoy another game of the type, even if in pure gameplay mechanic terms in some aspects inferior, it's still different and fun enough!
 
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