Now the war is over wishfull thinkers please explain how blu will ever replace DVD.
- Thread starter quest55720
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quest55720
Regular
That is why I think the studios will be pushing PPV model with download like xbox live. That way they never give IPs to a person so if they want to view again people have to pony up again. That way they don't have to do the collectors edition the super duper 30 year aniversery edition to get people to purchase again. The PPV model will IMO start on the consoles and portable devices like cell phones or newer studio approved Zune type devices. It might not work but I see the studios pushing really hard for it. Or a hybrid model were there is a year or exclusive window were a movie is only on PPV then release the disc at a premium.
Reading posts at places like AVS it really gives an idea how hard it will be to move back catalog titles on blu. Right now you can't half ass it because the enthusist will even ignore it at a discounted price.
Worse yet for blu they have gotten people hooked on bogos. It is so bad that the recent b3g2 at bestbuy was called a rip off. Now that blu has won it will be interesting how they get the value of their IPs back up from DVD levels thanks to constant BoGos
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Too good value on catalog titles devalue new content. A too cluttered release calendar devalue new content as well. Releasing, say a TV-series for which there are no HD source, on a single disc will also require retraining the value proposition in the mind of the non-informed consumer (why am I paying more for a single disc of what used to be a boxed set).
Finally found a BDA press conference article: http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/07/live-from-the-blu-ray-press-conferenece/
Read it if you really want to find out how they plan to move ahead in the short term.
Also I read that Warner is not going into digital download yet (Well, they have conducted a number of pilots over the years). They cited market is not ready (especially US) as the answer. Can't find the link now.
I'm still in information gathering mode, will drop more links and articles if I find something interesting.
Read it if you really want to find out how they plan to move ahead in the short term.
Also I read that Warner is not going into digital download yet (Well, they have conducted a number of pilots over the years). They cited market is not ready (especially US) as the answer. Can't find the link now.
I'm still in information gathering mode, will drop more links and articles if I find something interesting.
I can only chuckle at how the people who over the last few years were tirelessly arguing why HD-DVD will inevitably win, you know, cost, cheap chinese players, "impossible" BD-50 manufacturing, unrepairable BD, sci-fi hardcoat, etc etc and who turned out to be stupendously wrong on every count, are now back for Round 2.0 in the format war, only this time, they're arguing why HDM can't win and trotting out a similar list of bogus arguments.
I can only imagine what they'll try next in 2 years when HDM hits its inflection point, and it becomes clear that HDM is replacing DVD, perhaps then it will be how digital downloads or HVD is going to cut BD HDM's lifetime 'short'
It would be oh so much easier if they simply said "I was wrong" rather than continuing the fiction driven by cognitive dissonance that BD isn't going to survive 'either'.
I can only imagine what they'll try next in 2 years when HDM hits its inflection point, and it becomes clear that HDM is replacing DVD, perhaps then it will be how digital downloads or HVD is going to cut BD HDM's lifetime 'short'
It would be oh so much easier if they simply said "I was wrong" rather than continuing the fiction driven by cognitive dissonance that BD isn't going to survive 'either'.
Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.
Legend
In the same way that studios don't want to train customers to expect $10 BR, they don't want to train customers to expect ten movies on a single BR disc. It's all about managing the customers' expectations to pay high prices per single movie, not to pay a high price for many movies, or a low price for a single movie.
Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.
Legend
The biggest problem with digital downloads is that the ISPs won't have it. For instance, my ISP is the biggest cable company in the UK. They are about to launch a DOCSIS 3 50mbit service. However they also have a TV and VOD service they want to sell to customers, they don't want streaming video/digital downloads from other companies to parasite their bandwidth, and they've introduced traffic management in the evenings that effectively kills this (except for what would work as a "download over the next day, view tomorrow" type of system).
They've even been in talks with the TV companies launching the big bandwidth eaters (eg BBC iPlayer) about how they are going to provide (or not) the infrastructure for these companies to parasite their business plans on top of the ISPs network and bandwidth whilst trying to steal TV/VOD business from them.
Even with DOCSIS 3 getting ratified and new DOCSIS 3 equipment investment to increase effective bandwidth, the ISPs are not going to spend their bandwidth for the benefit of media companies, least of all with Hi-Def downloads that will gobble bytes and overload network infrastructure like nobody's business. Unless the ISP are also getting a slice of the pie, and the customer is going to end up footing the bill for that one way or another.
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Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.
Legend
Great BZB, when they implement that it should only take 8 minutes to hit the download limit rather than 20 minutes.
No one knows what the download limits will be on 50 mbit. To be fair, STM is the least evil of all possibilities, but it's just a way of not updating network infrastructure and packing more poeple onto the network.
Too busy trying to fool customers with marketing rebadges, cut costs, shift costs to customers in order to make themselves attractive to takeover or being bought by venture capitalists.
That's what happens when you spend years creaming off business profits instead of leveraging what should be a superior network infrastructure while Sky makes hay backed with News International money.
I think their perennial problem has been the debt incurred in expanding their network coverage 5 or 6 years ago. I think this may well have hamstrung them. But yeah they've been promising VoD for years and have only just got round to delivering it ... even now it's rather limited. Whether this is down to technological barriers, or just the IP rights holders being difficult I dunno. Maybe both. If they'd had a decent VoD / PVR solution four or five years ago they'd be in a much stronger situation now I think.
Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.
Legend
Look how long it took them to deliver a competitor to Sky Plus, and look at how many problems it still has. It's already outdated as it doesn't support Mpeg 4, and they priced it ridiculously high. They only had to revise the pricing because Sky killed them by giving away Sky Plus for free, and at the end of the day VM get further murdered because Sky has all the HD content because they are willing to pony up for it where VM/TW/NTL were not.
Yeah it's certainly better than other caps, but it still penalises people who work.
When you can hit the cap in 20~25 minutes after getting home from work it's hardly fair if you haven't been downloading all day.
3gb in "peak" is hardly excessive use, and now they started shaping upload bandwidth too so if you like your online games you are going to get reduced enjoyment from that too.
Anyway, we digress. In the current climate in the UK (which is pretty much on par with most parts of Europe these days) downloading HD content will not be viable in my opinion.
Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.
Legend
Yeah, I agree, but at least they dropped the window by 3 hours. If they ever get Cisco to add their requests to the UBR firmware, they want to be able to cancel all active STM sessions at the end of the window regardless.
I actually upgraded to 20 mbit because of STM, as at least when you get your speed temporarily reduced, you still get a usable 5 mbit. I don't even consider the lower tiers to be broadband when they get STMed. Of course due to my threatening to leave the service, I actually got that, and more TV for less money than I was paying for 4 mbit. Doesn't seem so clever to be pushing people up to the higher tier now, just so they can get a usable service.
Unless the ISPs are getting their cut, which will reduce the free profits that media companies will think they're getting by offloading distribution costs to the ISPs and their customers. This will make electronic download not as attractive as it initially looks from the supplier's end.
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No wonder Microsoft was supporting HD-DVD. Keeping two competing HD formats going would undermine customer confidence in both, and keep DVD dominant. This is a big blow to Microsoft's IPTV efforts - just as DVD sized SD content was starting to become viable for download over the Internet, the world shifts to HD formats. A big blow to Microsoft's efforts to control the living room.
quest55720
Regular
I love all the people who have the tinfoil hats. MS took a gamble on HD-DVD it is like one of us dropping 10 bucks on the 1000 to 1 shot at the races. MS made a small investment that could of paid off huge.
The world is not shifting to HDM. Ethusist sure but the average person is not especially on a format that is incompatible with the 5 SD players they have in the house/car.
Only time will tell.
If more companies and consumers rally behind HD, the higher chance it has.
quest55720
Regular
Only time will tell.
If more companies and consumers rally behind HD, the higher chance it has.
I see blu getting a solid 25% or so market share thanks to enthusists who buy a lot of movies. So ya it will shift some but not take over DVD.
It is a real shame sony was so short sited with blu. It should of had DVD layers in it. That would of killed off DVD sales in short order. Every one would of won a consumer would not have to replace all his players to enjoy HD. Studios could charge more for such a format meaning higher margins making them happy. Sony made blu an all or nothing which is going to lead to nothing for the vast majority of people. I wish sony and toshiba would of waited a few more years till that was feasable.
I can tell you right now, every one I know to include family members, will be buying an HDD player when the cost of them reduce to levels we are confortable with. But it will happen. We also plan on having more han 1 player and more than the current 1 HDTV we currently have. And PQ/SQ matters to all of us.
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