Because of the media no point in buying a blu movie when it won't play on all players you own. Unless you propose an average person will buy movies 2 times. DVD has changed the game that is all. It is like because MP3/itunes there will never be another main stream optical music format after cd because the game has changed. It is not like theydid not try with dvd-a and sacd.
Find me a format shift that was due soley to PQ/SQ because there is not any. Format shifts are because of tangable like convience or form factor.
Feel free to back up this comment with empirical data.
To the average person upscaled DVDs will look just fine. Most people are not going to get a 100 inch projector were DVD looks like crap. They are going to get the 799 dollar walmart special that is between 37-42 inches. The panel will be questionable quality at best. They will use the TV speakers for sound. On that type of TV you will not see a huge difference with upscaled dvd and blu. My father has one of these walmart specials and unless I was really really looking I could not tell between OTA and DVD on his TV. I think people around here forget how drasic a jump dvd was from vhs. I recently redid my fathers setup his VCR died and I gave him my old one for home movies. When I hooked it up and tested it I wanted to poke my eyes out with a stick. I used a starwar special edition tape. There was flickering, grainy, noisy, distortion near the top from were I guess the tape might be wrinkled. Wth all that it was still the tangables that won the public over.
Even on a high quality LCD, upscaled DVD doesnt compare to 1080p. This is blindingly obvious to anyone who's been to an electronic store and compared them.
All the major stores in the future will be focusing on HD players, not upscaled DVD players which will eventually be phased out. Just like with CRT tv's. You seem to be ignoring the impact that marketing/retailers/availability have on consumer behaviour.
Empirical data? Is that a joke? Its physical fact I'm afraid. Dont get me wrong upscaled DVD looks good, but relative to HD content there is no comparison. I have the latest 1080p Samsung, and was even surprised by the difference.
Seems like there is some defensiveness on the forum when Blu-ray's significant technical superiority is brought up. Its not as big the gap between VHS and DVD obviously, but significant nonetheless.
The people floating this DVD -> Tape upgrade theory (oh, how wonderful, it looks better, no rewind, etc) forget LaserDisc! I mean jesus christ, am I the only person who owned a LaserDisc, had a collection of LaserDisc movies, rented LaserDisc, etc? And before you start complaining about form factor, at the same VHS was out, Betamax was smaller, superior quality, and people were still buying music on huge LP albums. The disc-flipping stuff is hardly what offed it, cost and content is what more or less killed it. (at one point, 10% of Japanese households had LD)
What killed VHS eventually was the studios delaying and removing content. I know people who only a few years ago still used VHS, especially older people. My mother was simply forced to DVD.
VCRs have one KILLER feature that during the 80s and 90s, people still relied on and that's RECORDING (most people are not sophisticated enough to rip/burn DVDs, and DVD copiers have no where near the bootleg penetration that VHS had). Who here didn't own two VCRs, and use them to record rented movies? I had a collection of hundreds of VHSes, all copied. I used to record entire seasons of TV in the age prior to PVRs on VHS. I had every Dr Who, every Star Trek, every RoboTech, Voltron, Transformers, etc
There are two simple reasons why DVD is going to die: #1, the studios are going to kill it. They have vast libraries, and need to resell them to a new generation. They also want better DRM. #2 BD Recording (remember, the format was invented for optical recording) will make a comeback, especially in PVRs and combo-PVRs.
I'll add a third. Every new PC manufacturer and every new optical standalone player manufactured will be BD, so that even if people buy them just to use for DVD software, eventually they will start buying BDs.
I find it hilarious how people who originally supported HD-DVD have now switched arguments after they lost. On AVS forums, it's now either "no one wants HDM" or "Digital downloads are going to win." Ungraceful losers I say.
Yes the empirical data comment was a joke, because when people make subjective comments out to be a statement of fact, I find it somewhat humorous.
The difference isn't all that huge in normal viewing conditions. Noticeable if you're looking for it (varies quite a bit really depending on the title), but its nothing like the jump from VHS to DVD quality.
Go check my post history I posted stuff like this well before I bought into hd-dvd. I have said no one wants HDM. Just that the average person does not want it.
The studios did not kill VHS 10s of millions of cheap DVD players people purchased kill VHS. They stopped production when it no longer made any sense. The studios can try and kill DVD all they want but won't it is the cash cow keeping them alive. Until people have blu players in the bedroom/car/portable units people will be looking to purchase DVD.
If the hard core people at AVS will only buy back catalog titles with a bogo or under 10 dollars do you think the average person is ever going to look to upgrade his old collection of DVDs? It made sense with VHS but not this time around.
Digital downloads have even more issues than blu. If the studios had there way digital downloads would be the winner. The studios would love to go to a PPV model which downloads would let them do. They would much rather you rent an HD movie for 5.99 for 24 hours than to own a movie at 14.99.
I think they can co-exsist rather well. The video/audophiles pay a premium for blu and the masses stick to DVD.
I could care which won neither is going to get people to spend a lot of money to move on. People here keep forgetting how expensive it will be for a family to move on. It is an all or nothing for people. It makes no sense to purchase blu media for 1 blu player because the blu discs will not play on other DVD players in the house.
The average consumer won't put up a measily 40 dollar antena. Yet you all expect them to spend 100s to up grade from DVD. Add to that the upgrade will only be noticeable on the HD-tvs in the house. It won't be noticeable on the SDtvs or portable units.
It is the form factor that is getting people to buy HD tvs they could care less if they it is a SD or HD signal.
It is still a small minority of people with HD-tvs who run real HD through that tv. That number is only going to fall as more average people get that new shiny flat TV.
If the studios really think they can force people to move on by stopping DVD production they will just bankrupt themselves. You really think they will stop DVD sales when it is the leader in sales? You think the studios will just cut off the revinue that is keeping them in business in a hope of forcing people to move on?
To the average person upscaled DVDs will look just fine. Most people are not going to get a 100 inch projector were DVD looks like crap. They are going to get the 799 dollar walmart special that is between 37-42 inches. The panel will be questionable quality at best. They will use the TV speakers for sound. On that type of TV you will not see a huge difference with upscaled dvd and blu.
The difference isn't all that huge in normal viewing conditions. Noticeable if you're looking for it (varies quite a bit really depending on the title), but its nothing like the jump from VHS to DVD quality.
Are you doing a per/GB analysis on that costing when you say "ever"?
The average person wants whatever Walmart, Best Buy, etc are pushing. When they walk into a store, and every TV is an HD flat panel, and every player is HDM, do you think they're going to try and find an SDTV with DVD?
If I buy your argument, HDTV would not have had *exponential* growth in sales, because Joe Sixpack obviously doesn't need or want HD. The reality is, HD is going mainstream, and every CE manufacturer, media outlet, content publisher, and news media pundit is pushing it. With across the board consensus, and the government practically forcing everyone to buy new TVs, it will only be a matter of time before enough installed base exists for the studios to stagger BD/DVD releases. Who knows, maybe they'll ship hybrid discs eventually, or 2-discs-in-one-case.
It's irrelevent. Everyone has a vested interest in killing DVD. CE manufacturers, studios, PC makers, etc They need to get higher player margins, resell old content, enforce better DRM on new content, etc
Depends on what is "normal viewing conditions", doesn't it? Of which viewing distance plays a huge part.
Can I get a show of hands for the people who have analog OTA or know people with analog OTA?
It sure does, that's why blanket statements like the one Vic made are stupid.
<edit> my father watches a 22" HDTV from a distance about 12', you think he's in a hurry for HD content? Do you think he could even tell the difference?
I have said a few times it is not being hd that is selling the TVs to the masses. It is purely form factor. People want a "flat tv" to replace the huge CRT in the living room. It is a much nicer cleaner look. If the only HD-TVs were CRT or old school huge rear projection the average person would look the other way.
Hell I see stacks of PS3 at best buy and walmart and no Wiis does that mean people are going to walk out of the store with a PS3?
