Now the war is over wishfull thinkers please explain how blu will ever replace DVD.

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

DAT failed because the recording studios refused to put content on it because of fears of piracy of higher quality music (a manufactured excuse in my opinion because they allowed cassettes to continue). They preferred CD because it was more difficult to copy at the time.

There is a good chance that new media will be put on BD at lower prices for the same reasons. The hardware manufacturers don't like DVD either. The patent royalties per DVD player is $30 or so. When DVD players sell at $50 or so that gives them very little profit margin to play with. Hardware manufacturers are looking at DVD as an extra to put on BD players rather than as a worthwhile product.

DAT did fail due to lack of content, but also because of the way that Philips effectively blackmailed the media companies into supporting it (with the threat of a mass-market recordable CD). As the media companies knew a recordable CD was coming anyway (and arrived within a couple of years), they had no interest in paying anything more than minimum lip service to DAT support.

That's why the media companies support of DVD was so important, and why they will do the same with BR when (as it now seems) the next-gen format war is settled as they did with DVD support. They all know that working together to effectively fix the market for both hardware and media is what makes them money.

The same thing happened with Sony Mini-disc. It just wasn't seen as anything more than a niche product as Sony had tried to be greedy and keep it all to themselves, but no one else wanted to dance to Sony's tune (least of all the customers). Agreement on all sides is imperative before a next gen format can be pushed forwards.

 

[pjbliverpool]

Has the war been won???

I haven't followed this at all so apologies for my ignorance but would someone mind giving me a brief explanation as to why its now a foregone conclusion that BD will win?

If this is true then I might go and get me one!

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

Has the war been won???

I haven't followed this at all so apologies for my ignorance but would someone mind giving me a brief explanation as to why its now a foregone conclusion that BD will win?

If this is true then I might go and get me one!

Check a lot of other threads in the forum. Warner is the 800lb gorilla and has just signed up to exclusive Blu-Ray titles (along with standard DVDs) after May this year. This leaves Universal and Paramount on the HD-DVD side, and everyone else on the Blu-Ray side. It's not definite, but the scales are now tipping firmly in favour of BR as that's where 75 percent of the movies are going to be for HD.

 

[BRiT]

Has the war been won???

I haven't followed this at all so apologies for my ignorance but would someone mind giving me a brief explanation as to why its now a foregone conclusion that BD will win?

If this is true then I might go and get me one!

Content availability. Warner and New Line Media have switched to Blu Ray exclusive. That leaves only Paramount and Universal studios as the HD DVD exclusive.

 

[Titanio]

I'm not sure it'll get 'DVD big' depending on timing. But I think it probably will be "big".

I don't think people will replace their DVDs, but when HD is cheap enough for someone, it'll be more an issue of "why not?" and making all future purchases HD. Their DVDs will still play on the HD player.

The industry will certainly push hard - from studios to retailers to CE manufacturers - because it's in their interests to have another nice new cycle to enjoy starting with early adopters, higher premiums and growth, compared to continuing on just with DVD and it's saturated market with relatively little to no premium anymore. It's a question of how quickly consumers respond, and how steep the curve is in adoption, but I think they'll have every encouragement to hop up to it. But I'm not sure if every single consumer will make the switch..I'm sure that won't happen. But there'll be enough for it to be an ongoing concern in a significant way, I think.

 

[MrSpiggott]

Find me a format shift that was due soley to PQ/SQ because there is not any. Format shifts are because of tangable like convience or form factor.

The switch from Black and White to colour TVs.

 

[Ty]

You wanna know how much PQ/SQ mean to people? Most won't even put up an antena to get free HD with that new TV. A 10-40 dollar antena and free programming does not matter. Because it is an eye sore to most or inconveint to put one up. If the average person won't do an antena I just don't see them spending 100s and premium on discs to change over. OTA is the second highest quality of HD most people can get and it is absolutely free.

I think you need to ask yourself WHY people don't do this. I think the reasons are simple. Cable's ease of use and access to hundreds of channels and education. Who buys a TV and automatically knows that OTA HD is even available? Furthermore you need to also know if your area is supported, you might need to fiddle with the antenna but still could only get a few channels. Contrast this with cable and its plug-n-play (heck, the cable guy does it for you!) and there are a bunch of reasons why people don't use antennas anymore - that and the perception that antennas are so 70's. Heck, throw some tinfoil on the end!

I think the next medium has a better chance personally. I think a much higher capasity disc were you could put a whole HD season of a TV show on 1 disc.

BR is going to last many years, the next medium is NOT going to be physical IMO.

I don't mean any offense when I ask this, but did you want HD DVD to win? It seems you are quite disappointed that BR is likely to win.

People are not buying HD TV to have SD content put it on it.

Amen. When the average consumer goes to buy a TV and they ask the dude at BB or Circuit City, they're going to get up-selled on a BR player.

2. The hardware manufacturers will stop making DVD players. Any company that want to get a slice of the BR pie will need to sign licences, and those licenses will include that they stop making DVD players within a couple of years.

I don't know if BR licenses will obligate said OEM from making DVD players - or have you actually heard otherwise? Certainly the margins on DVD players are nearly non-existent at this point though.

 

[patsu]

< US$300 Blu-ray 1.1 player announced by Funai (To be available in Q2):
http://funai.us/bluRayDiscFunai.aspx

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

I don't know if BR licenses will obligate said OEM from making DVD players - or have you actually heard otherwise? Certainly the margins on DVD players are nearly non-existent at this point though.

It was something I did read about a while ago, and I can't remember if it was in relation to HD-DVD, Blu-Ray or both. In a nutshell, once you sign a licence for manufacturing the next-gen players, you're obligated to phase out standard DVD-only players within two years.

This is why (for instance) everyone was expecting last year's Pioneer DV696 series to be the last of their fully featured mainstream players, but the dragging out of the format war after the 696 got EOL-ed meant it was repackaged up as the DV600 for another year.

It probably doesn't mean much to the customer as they'll still be able to play their old DVDs on newer BR players, but it gets a next gen player into peoples' homes.

 

[quest55720]

I think you need to ask yourself WHY people don't do this. I think the reasons are simple. Cable's ease of use and access to hundreds of channels and education. Who buys a TV and automatically knows that OTA HD is even available? Furthermore you need to also know if your area is supported, you might need to fiddle with the antenna but still could only get a few channels. Contrast this with cable and its plug-n-play (heck, the cable guy does it for you!) and there are a bunch of reasons why people don't use antennas anymore - that and the perception that antennas are so 70's. Heck, throw some tinfoil on the end!



BR is going to last many years, the next medium is NOT going to be physical IMO.

I don't mean any offense when I ask this, but did you want HD DVD to win? It seems you are quite disappointed that BR is likely to win.



Amen. When the average consumer goes to buy a TV and they ask the dude at BB or Circuit City, they're going to get up-selled on a BR player.



I don't know if BR licenses will obligate said OEM from making DVD players - or have you actually heard otherwise? Certainly the margins on DVD players are nearly non-existent at this point though.

I could care which won neither is going to get people to spend a lot of money to move on. People here keep forgetting how expensive it will be for a family to move on. It is an all or nothing for people. It makes no sense to purchase blu media for 1 blu player because the blu discs will not play on other DVD players in the house.

The average consumer won't put up a measily 40 dollar antena. Yet you all expect them to spend 100s to up grade from DVD. Add to that the upgrade will only be noticeable on the HD-tvs in the house. It won't be noticeable on the SDtvs or portable units.

It is the form factor that is getting people to buy HD tvs they could care less if they it is a SD or HD signal. It is still a small minority of people with HD-tvs who run real HD through that tv. That number is only going to fall as more average people get that new shiny flat TV.

If the studios really think they can force people to move on by stopping DVD production they will just bankrupt themselves. You really think they will stop DVD sales when it is the leader in sales? You think the studios will just cut off the revinue that is keeping them in business in a hope of forcing people to move on? You really think disney will just sacrifice its self for the other studios? They would be the first to die if that kids movie won't work in the car or kids bedroom. People will just move to other forms of entertainment or just as bad move purely to rents. Just like if the studios would of stopped VHS in 1985 you really think people would of moved to LD?

The other major issue is portable players. People keep buying more and more every year. It will just entrench the average person more into DVD.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

If the studios really think they can force people to move on by stopping DVD production they will just bankrupt themselves. You really think they will stop DVD sales when it is the leader in sales? You think the studios will just cut off the revinue that is keeping them in business in a hope of forcing people to move on? You really think disney will just sacrifice its self for the other studios? They would be the first to die if that kids movie won't work in the car or kids bedroom. People will just move to other forms of entertainment or just as bad move purely to rents. Just like if the studios would of stopped VHS in 1985 you really think people would of moved to LD?

The other major issue is portable players. People keep buying more and more every year. It will just entrench the average person more into DVD.

You seem to think it will be a sudden cut off. It will be a gradual push in the form of sticks and carrots that will take years. Companies don't care what you have now - they just want to make sure that when you buy new stuff, whether it's tomorrow, next year, or two years from now, it will be BR players, discs and the HD TVs to use them.

This is pretty much borne out by what Warners said on the flat DVD market. People arn't buying standard DVDs or players - they are waiting for the HD war to finish so they can start buying the format that succeeds. There are already a lot of HD TVs and cable services around, so it's natural for people to switch to a "better DVD" in the form of BR (assuming it has actually won the war after the Warners announcement).

You keep saying "people won't buy a disc that only plays in the main living room". Lets reverse that statement and ask why people will continue to buy DVDs when a better looking format is around and plays much better on their main household home cinema system. People won't want to buy an inferior DVD format when they have an invesment in a HD TV and a HD player, even if it's the only one in the house and it can play all DVDs anyway.

And the argument becomes even more compelling when SD players stop being made, and lots of companies can pile into the cheap (sub £150) Blu-ray for economies of scale and a free run against the obsoleted DVD players that used to occupy that market. In a few years you'll be replacing those various bedroom players with very cheap BR versions so you can watch your BR movies everywhere.

 

[DJ12]

You keep coming back to the same argument time and time again.

When DVD first came out, how many players did families have to play them on?

The fact is there is little difference between DVD players 10 years ago, than blu-ray players today.

Both where expensive, both relied on a console to make them popular with the masses.

I know my PS2 was the first DVD player in our house, now several years later we have three (to go with three TVs), and so the cycle begins again, my PS3 is the only blu-ray player in the house and in a few years there will be three of them.

That is the way of the World.

If you cannot see your argument could've been made several years ago when DVDs first came out then there really is no hope to anyone debating the issue with you.

 

[XMAN26]

Sure they recorded with it some people still do. They quit buying movies on it though long before they quit recording. The ability to record was never a hinderance to DVD. The tangeables were to just to great for the average person to go back once they got to VHS. That is why DVD movie sales were so huge people buying back catalogs of movies. Now that people have gotten the older movies they want through black friday or the 5 dollar bin DVD sales have slowed. People just really have new releaes and TV shows to buy.




That would only happen if sales plummet to nothing like they did for VHS. The studios were wanting to ditch VHS because of the cost to produce/ship them. DVDs are so cheap to produce sales would have to flat line for them to quit. The studios are not going to turn down any money these days. They are not just going to quit selling DVDs to try and force people over and give up a ton of money.

I think they can co-exsist rather well. The video/audophiles pay a premium for blu and the masses stick to DVD. Just like right now I pay a premium for the HD package from direct TV. I don't think there is any rush by the studios to ditch DVD. The biggest reason they want format switches is for people to buy back catalog titles again. The studios know that the average person will never see enough of a difference to buy their whole collection again in blu. Hell even on the AVS forum most only buy back titles during a bogos or discounted under 10 dollars. If those hardcore people are resistant to back catalog titles imagine the average person.

It was several year, near a decade I think before VHS tapes being made. Hell, The Green Mile was on both DVDand VHS when i came out.

 

[Vic]

No offence, but it just seems like you're spouting the same argument over and over.

I like the argument that says over time, Blu-ray prices decrease causing the consumer to say 'why not?'. If history has shown us anything, then its that people are always looking for something better as long as the cost is reasonable. Now add in the fact DVD's will play on Blu-ray players, and that retailers will be pushing them immensely, and it becomes a case of 'when' and not 'if'. Market forces will prove decisive.

With Hitachi developing four-layer discs that will be compatible with existing hardware with a simple firmware update, and the promise of eight-layer discs to come later, Blu-ray now has the future market in its hand. There probably wont be another physical medium, and if someone does have a brainwave, guess what? They have to pull studio support from a format that will now be backed to the hilt.

 

[Acert93]

As has been argued before, the difference to consumers from moving to VHS to DVD is substantially different from moving from DVD to HD Optical.

If you cannot see your argument could've been made several years ago when DVDs first came out then there really is no hope to anyone debating the issue with you.

If discussion is going to become more personal like this then "not debating" would be a good first step for you. You point out he is coming back to the same arguements, so address them. Anectdotal points, like your PS2 / DVD purchases don't invalidate his points, either.

I am not saying he is right. I think a lot of us picked BDR to eventually best HD DVD, but there are a lot of market questions at this time (HDTV penetration, consumer awareness and discernment, media cost premiums, new technologies and aggressive movement from alternative media distributors, etc) that DVD didn't face. DVD was essentially a defacto standard and consoles didn't include them until they had already began gaining market momentum.

Unless you can see the future, how the HD Optical market will mature is a big unknown. It probably is the last hurrah for optical media... but who knows. But the dialogue could be a lot more technical and data dependant and less snarky. Posting to recover the same ground and to state there is no point debating it with said person is kind of redundant.

 

[MrGaribaldi]

quest55720> You point out that back in the days of the VCR, most people only had one, but as DVD-players got cheaper they ended up with several.
Why do you think the same rate of adaption could not happen this time around?

You pick up a BDR player and some cool movies for that new shiny tv in the living-room, and keep the dvd-player for the bedroom, childrens room and kitchen. And as time goes by you upgrade them one by one, until all are BDR players.

Its not like you have to chuck out every old player and replace them with BDRs as soon as you decide to buy one BDR player. All it means is that you won't be able to play some discs in every room...

 

[quest55720]

quest55720> You point out that back in the days of the VCR, most people only had one, but as DVD-players got cheaper they ended up with several.
Why do you think the same rate of adaption could not happen this time around?

You pick up a BDR player and some cool movies for that new shiny tv in the living-room, and keep the dvd-player for the bedroom, childrens room and kitchen. And as time goes by you upgrade them one by one, until all are BDR players.

Its not like you have to chuck out every old player and replace them with BDRs as soon as you decide to buy one BDR player. All it means is that you won't be able to play some discs in every room...

Because of the media no point in buying a blu movie when it won't play on all players you own. Unless you propose an average person will buy movies 2 times. DVD has changed the game that is all. It is like because MP3/itunes there will never be another main stream optical music format after cd because the game has changed. It is not like theydid not try with dvd-a and sacd.

 

[quest55720]

You keep saying "people won't buy a disc that only plays in the main living room". Lets reverse that statement and ask why people will continue to buy DVDs when a better looking format is around and plays much better on their main household home cinema system. People won't want to buy an inferior DVD format when they have an invesment in a HD TV and a HD player, even if it's the only one in the house and it can play all DVDs anyway.

To the average person upscaled DVDs will look just fine. Most people are not going to get a 100 inch projector were DVD looks like crap. They are going to get the 799 dollar walmart special that is between 37-42 inches. The panel will be questionable quality at best. They will use the TV speakers for sound. On that type of TV you will not see a huge difference with upscaled dvd and blu. My father has one of these walmart specials and unless I was really really looking I could not tell between OTA and DVD on his TV. I think people around here forget how drasic a jump dvd was from vhs. I recently redid my fathers setup his VCR died and I gave him my old one for home movies. When I hooked it up and tested it I wanted to poke my eyes out with a stick. I used a starwar special edition tape. There was flickering, grainy, noisy, distortion near the top from were I guess the tape might be wrinkled. Wth all that it was still the tangables that won the public over.

 

[Vic]

To the average person upscaled DVDs will look just fine. Most people are not going to get a 100 inch projector were DVD looks like crap. They are going to get the 799 dollar walmart special that is between 37-42 inches. The panel will be questionable quality at best. They will use the TV speakers for sound. On that type of TV you will not see a huge difference with upscaled dvd and blu. My father has one of these walmart specials and unless I was really really looking I could not tell between OTA and DVD on his TV. I think people around here forget how drasic a jump dvd was from vhs. I recently redid my fathers setup his VCR died and I gave him my old one for home movies. When I hooked it up and tested it I wanted to poke my eyes out with a stick. I used a starwar special edition tape. There was flickering, grainy, noisy, distortion near the top from were I guess the tape might be wrinkled. Wth all that it was still the tangables that won the public over.

Even on a high quality LCD, upscaled DVD doesnt compare to 1080p. This is blindingly obvious to anyone who's been to an electronic store and compared them.

All the major stores in the future will be focusing on HD players, not upscaled DVD players which will eventually be phased out. Just like with CRT tv's. You seem to be ignoring the impact that marketing/retailers/availability have on consumer behaviour.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Even on a high quality LCD, upscaled DVD doesnt compare to 1080p. This is blindingly obvious to anyone who's been to an electronic store and compared them.

Feel free to back up this comment with empirical data.