Now the war is over wishfull thinkers please explain how blu will ever replace DVD.

AlphaWolf said:
And? Any reason that should mean Paramount and Universal would want to jump in sooner rather than later other than for considerations?
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If Universal and Paramount are not vested in the disc-based hidef movie market, they wouldn't participate in HD DVD or Blu-ray in the first place. :)
Beyond the format war, it is a great thing for the studios have an additional viable market. So they would certainly appreciate Blu-ray's success. At the end of the day, I have my own assessments but you clearly have your own opinion too.

Just another reason for them to let the others test the waters. Why should you waste time experimenting when you can let others figure out what works?
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Because the BD-Live extensions leverage or express individual studios' strengths and desires. It may not be something portable across studios. e.g., Fox experimented with MySpace because it is also owned by News Corp; the AVP online game may indicate their interest in the gaming space. It is about finding additional revenue sources for the company... or even license stuff out to other Blu-ray companies.

You're just not understanding opportunity costs.
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:D If you say so...
 
Blue ray will replace DVD about 1-2 years after it is cheap enough to have a ~150 player that is backwards compatible w/ DVD goes on sale and the media goes down to ~$20 a movie.

That timeline allows for general appliance turnover and general consumer adoption. Those VHS/DVD players were key in getting consumers to adopt the new format when they all ready had a huge library of other content, just as record/tape (and 8-track) players and tape/cd players were.

It's pretty simple, really.

The REAL question is "will blue ray get established before everything moves to a digital-content only model (i.e. itunes-like)?"

My guess is yes because even given the impressive advances in storage technology on the horizon bandwidth limitations will keep physical distribution models viable for at least another 10-15 years. Plus the publishers are in such a tizzy about illegal mp3 and movie downloads that they are neglecting the best ways to get their customers to think of digital as legitimate product.
 
DVD had already taken over the market long before hybrid VHS/DVD players were commonplace, but those players did push to even higher marketshare.
 
Apparently 1.15 million BDs were sold in the first 5 weeks of 2008 in the US. Still a drop in the ocean, but thats five times last years figures.

I dont see why people are so quick to compare Blu-ray with DVD anyway. There are far more films available on DVD, yet people still want to make invalid comparisons. Why not look at how DVD was doing at this point in its life?
 
accidentalsuccess said:
That timeline allows for general appliance turnover and general consumer adoption. Those VHS/DVD players were key in getting consumers to adopt the new format when they all ready had a huge library of other content, just as record/tape (and 8-track) players and tape/cd players were.
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Not a good comparison.
1) VHS could do something DVD couldn't - record. CD vs DVD is a better comparison.
2) It is doubtful that BD will ever replace DVD, because DVD still hasn't replaced CD. Both formats co-exist on DVD drives. It is likely that the same will be true for BD - ie. BD all drives will be able to play DVDs (and probably CDs as well) long after videos on DVDs are no longer the most common format.

The REAL question is "will blue ray get established before everything moves to a digital-content only model (i.e. itunes-like)?"

My guess is yes because even given the impressive advances in storage technology on the horizon bandwidth limitations will keep physical distribution models viable for at least another 10-15 years. Plus the publishers are in such a tizzy about illegal mp3 and movie downloads that they are neglecting the best ways to get their customers to think of digital as legitimate product.
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Given the dislike the public has shown for DRMed stuff in music, I believe BD movies will succeed and outright purchase of download movies will fail, except for pay per view movies or movies on demand for a limited viewing period, like cable companies now offer, kind of like movie rentals online. If people buy movies outright, they will want their own hard copy. Download onto hard disk movies with DRM and limited view time are going to be pretty much like what we get with cable now, except the medium in which is is distributed and perhaps the choice of films available.
 
SPM said:
Not a good comparison.
1) VHS could do something DVD couldn't - record. CD vs DVD is a better comparison.
2) It is doubtful that BD will ever replace DVD, because DVD still hasn't replaced CD. Both formats co-exist on DVD drives. It is likely that the same will be true for BD - ie. BD all drives will be able to play DVDs (and probably CDs as well) long after videos on DVDs are no longer the most common format.



Given the dislike the public has shown for DRMed stuff in music, I believe BD movies will succeed and outright purchase of download movies will fail, except for pay per view movies or movies on demand for a limited viewing period, like cable companies now offer, kind of like movie rentals online. If people buy movies outright, they will want their own hard copy. Download onto hard disk movies with DRM and limited view time are going to be pretty much like what we get with cable now, except the medium in which is is distributed and perhaps the choice of films available.
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Good post. I agree with a lot of what you've said.

Its hard to see what more can be done with digital downloads, beyond what Apple will do with this new Apple tv deal. Its great for who are happy with it, but limited ownership is a big momentum-stopper in terms of mainstream consumption.

Ultimately the studios own the content, and they will decide how the content is distributed.

Blu-ray has a long way to go in terms of establishing itself, but it has time on its side now that HD-DVD is pratically dead in the water, added to the fact that it is backwardly-compatible with DVD.
 
I have been tracking Java's inroad in the CE space. Besides BD-J, it has also made some headways in the cable set-top box space.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...es-opencabletm-project-javanet_476400_15.html

The tru2way brand is the cable industry's marketing identification of interactive applications for consumers. The tru2way term succeeds OpenCable Platform which will continue as the term describing the underlying set of technical specifications that support tru2way applications. Tru2way has foundations in MHP (Multimedia Home Platform) and is similar to Blu-ray Java (BD-J) both of which are also based on Sun Microsystems' Java platform. "Having such common standards allows application developers to draw from their existing knowledge base while providing cross-platform application development opportunities going forward," stated Mark Coblitz, Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning for Comcast.
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Time Warner Cable already has deployed nearly 600,000 tru2way set-top boxes and Comcast has made the commitment to deploy support for tru2way devices system-wide by the end of 2008.
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Blu Ray films seem to be ramping up significantly this fall.

U-Tech Media expects OEM orders for BD movie discs, says paper

U-Tech Media, the largest Taiwan-based producer of pre-recorded optical discs, expects to volume produce Blu-ray Disc (BD) movie discs for major film studios by as early as the third quarter of 2008, according to the Chinese-language Economic Daily News (EDN) newspaper.

Movie studios originally producing HD DVD movie discs have begun to place OEM orders for BD movie discs with Sony and Cinram International, the EDN indicated. As the order volume exceeds the total production capacity of the two makers, movie studios are expected to shift orders to U-Tech, the EDN pointed out.
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http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20080225PB200.html

If this results in cheaper BD movies I guess quite a few PS3 owners will shift to buying BDs instead of DVDs.
 
It would be nice but I don't expect BD movie prices to fall even if they are saving money.

What will ultimately drive prices downwards is sales or lack thereof more precisely.
 
Ty said:
It would be nice but I don't expect BD movie prices to fall even if they are saving money.

What will ultimately drive prices downwards is sales or lack thereof more precisely.
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There is one compelling reason for the studios to cut BD prices - to shift people over from DVD which is easily ripped. However, they probably won't do this until BD sales are no longer constrained by limited HDTV numbers. Once this constraint starts to reduce and the studios feel that they can start pushing BD to cut DVD piracy, the cost of BD discs will be cut, possibly to cheaper prices than the same movie on DVD (or raise DVD prices).

I think will happen in 1-2 years time, depending on how hard the studios want to push users away from DVD for anti-piracy reasons.
 
SPM said:
There is one compelling reason for the studios to cut BD prices - to shift people over from DVD which is easily ripped. However, they probably won't do this until BD sales are no longer constrained by limited HDTV numbers. Once this constraint starts to reduce and the studios feel that they can start pushing BD to cut DVD piracy, the cost of BD discs will be cut, possibly to cheaper prices than the same movie on DVD (or raise DVD prices).

I think will happen in 1-2 years time, depending on how hard the studios want to push users away from DVD for anti-piracy reasons.
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2 years from now? You're kidding right?
 
PS3 to receive BD Live update in May/June ?

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/playstation-3-will-go-bd-live-this-summer/5279

Sources close to Sony have said that a BD Live update to the Playstation 3 could arrive as early as May or June.

Sony told Home Cinema Choice Magazine that PS3 owners can expect the firmware update when the first BD Live stand-alone players hit the market.

The first Blu-ray player to feature BD Live is believed to be the Panasonic DMP-BD50 which should street in late May or early June.
Click to expand...
 
AlphaWolf said:
2 years from now? You're kidding right?
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No, I am not kidding. 1 to 2 years from now, the studios will cut BD media prices, and possibly even hike DVD prices a bit to try to shift people over to BD for anti-piracy reasons. That is a quite reasonable suposition.
 
SPM said:
No, I am not kidding. 1 to 2 years from now, the studios will cut BD media prices, and possibly even hike DVD prices a bit to try to shift people over to BD for anti-piracy reasons. That is a quite reasonable suposition.
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History suggests otherwise.
 
SPM said:
What history?
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Retail media sales history. CDs replaced vinyl/cassette at a higher price point, dvd movies replaced VHS at a higher price point. Of course those formats had the advantage of differentiating with more than just quality, but studios will still want higher returns on their investment and the higher actual production costs.
 
 
Well... this thread has kinda become the Blu-ray momentum track. So I'll just post more Blu-ray news here:

Microsoft's CEO, Steve Balmer has confirmed that Microsoft will support Sony's Blu-ray high-definition disc format.
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http://www.n4g.com/tech/News-120041.aspx


I think BDA has also started to raise awareness about BD-J. Here're some early BD-J extras. I think a few are mildly interesting, in selected genra (e.g., documentary, interactive CD, pr0n). Some are downright tedious. Most people don't care. But hey, it's a start:

Chapter Summary
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1KLxcN25Zo

Text Commentary
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huqVUAEbMpk

Alien Scavenger Hunt
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yc3maivq0oI


EDIT:
They should embrace the net for BD-Live and BD-J extras. IMHO, the studios should be able to garner more consumer interests than these tedious experiments.
e.g., Include fan submitted contents in the Transformer Blu-ray disc: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3Mrepqk3Ys :LOL:

It's a very powerful means to drive traffic to websites and continue to keep in touch with customers.
 
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