Now the war is over wishfull thinkers please explain how blu will ever replace DVD.

[patsu]

Analysts Discuss the Impact of Blu-ray on the Industry at the CDSA Confab

I really like this article because it gives a pretty informative and neutral look at the hi-def movie space from different perspectives.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?sec_id=2&&article_ID=12263

... by choosing the more expensive, more complex format, and by allowing for consumer confusion and indifference during a nearly two-year-long format war, the industry could be looking at a scary and uncertain future for Blu-ray, Van Horn said.

There are already nearly 100 devices in the market that play Blu-ray, but all remain expensive for the average consumer. Blu-ray replicators are pushing out product at a rapid pace, but capacity will be strained soon if more production lines aren’t created quickly.

By the time we get into [the fourth quarter of 2008], there will be a problem with capacity,” said Jim Bottoms, co-managing director of research firm Understanding & Solutions. He said it will take 80 new Blu-ray production lines in the next two years to meet the demand for Blu-ray in the United States.

Michael Mitchell, CTO and EVP of Sony DADC, said his company has churned out more than 115 million total Blu-ray discs, at an average of 5.8 seconds per disc.

“Since August we’ve been completely loaded,” he said, adding that the company’s employees only took New Year’s Day, Christmas and Thanksgiving off in order to fill all the orders. “The demand has been so high.”

...by 2016, 90 million Blu-ray players will be in U.S. households, playing a total of 900 million discs sold. By 2012, consumer spending on Blu-ray will outpace that for DVD, he added, and total Blu-ray units will pass DVD units sold a year later. The CDSA forecasts that 922 million Blu-ray Discs will be sold by 2012, compared to only 7.8 million in 2007.

the top 20 markets for Blu-ray sales — New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago and Washington, D.C. — represent nearly 60% of the national market, and that specialty stores, while key in the launch of DVD, have struggled to sell high-def. The Best Buys and Targets of the world have led the way.

Bottoms said because consumers are buying bigger and bigger HDTV sizes every year, their standard DVDs are going to look less and less impressive on the screen. He called it a “consumer con” because they’ll have to upgrade to Blu-ray in order to match the quality offered by their TVs. And in five to seven years, “people will automatically replace their DVD players with Blu-ray players, because they’ll be under $100.

Studio representatives discussed their experiments with including digital copies of movies on DVD and Blu-ray, expressing certainty that the two won’t be replaced by digital downloads any time soon.

“[Digital downloading is] not going to hockey stick soon, in our opinion,” said Ben Carr, VP of new technology for Walt Disney Studios. “The interoperability of [digital rights management] is critical to the success of digital downloading. If you jump into this too quickly … it’s not going to be too pretty.”

Adams, of Adams Media Research, said by 2012 the dominant form of digital entertainment will remain ad-supported streaming video, worth $2.5 billion. But for now, he and others agreed, digital distribution is a tiny piece of the studio revenue pie.

“The online business, while growing, isn’t generating large amounts of revenue,” Bottoms said.

Yet if the home entertainment industry doesn’t push Blu-ray quickly and with fervor, digital entertainment just might take over, Adams said.

“If the industry hesitates on this Blu-ray opportunity, it’s going to go the other way,” he said.

EDIT:
Sony takes an honest look at Blu-ray:
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/ca6538432.html

 

[Malo]

Bottoms said because consumers are buying bigger and bigger HDTV sizes every year, their standard DVDs are going to look less and less impressive on the screen. He called it a “consumer con” because they’ll have to upgrade to Blu-ray in order to match the quality offered by their TVs. And in five to seven years, “people will automatically replace their DVD players with Blu-ray players, because they’ll be under $100.

But buying a new bluray player will mean their DVD's will look better than ever due to excellent upscaling. So not only will they get fantastic looking hi-def movies with bluray, all their existing library will look much better as well.

 

[Arwin]

But buying a new bluray player will mean their DVD's will look better than ever due to excellent upscaling. So not only will they get fantastic looking hi-def movies with bluray, all their existing library will look much better as well.

While that is true, even on my 32" I'm starting to really notice some bad quality on DVD. While I don't think not nearly as many people will replace their existing DVD collection with BluRay versions, I will personally buy BluRay versions only from now on whenever the movie I want is available, and I suspect that in the future, so will most other people. It will also be really easy for publishers to push the transition, both on the hardware and software side, but inevitably if they work together.

 

[Randell]

But buying a new bluray player will mean their DVD's will look better than ever due to excellent upscaling.

that's a big assumption. Especially at the price Joe Average would buy into blu-ray at.

 

[Malo]

I guess sacrifices will need to be made on players to reduce the price, including subpar or no scalers at all? Is that what you mean?

 

[AlphaWolf]

I guess sacrifices will need to be made on players to reduce the price, including subpar or no scalers at all? Is that what you mean?

Considering you can buy a dvd player with upscaling now for ~$75 I don't think they need to sacrifice any hardware, especially when you consider that a blu-ray player already requires more sophisticated hardware (processing power) than you'll likely find in any dvd player. And no a ps3 doesn't do a noticeably better job of upscaling DVDs than my $100 panasonic dvd player.

 

[patsu]

I don't see a problem.

The original quote is "And in five to seven years, “people will automatically replace their DVD players with Blu-ray players, because they’ll be under $100."

*If* Blu-ray players can get that cheap, plus true high-def resolution, better audio, and more useful/entertaining interactivity; it will be attractive.

 

[Randell]

I guess sacrifices will need to be made on players to reduce the price, including subpar or no scalers at all? Is that what you mean?

yep most decent TV's scale better than cheap DVD scalers. For quality scaling & deinterlacing etc you are still looking at higher price range. Still then again average Joe doesn't care.

 

[Arun]

*If* Blu-ray players can get that cheap, plus true high-def resolution, better audio, and more useful/entertaining interactivity; it will be attractive.

Why couldn't they? Diodes are getting extremely cheap, and so are the chips required in standalone players as Moore's Law does its magic. Some mechanical parts of the drive are likely still more expensive but I'm not sure why that'd remain a significant cost factor over the mid/long-term.

 

[SPM]

Why couldn't they? Diodes are getting extremely cheap, and so are the chips required in standalone players as Moore's Law does its magic. Some mechanical parts of the drive are likely still more expensive but I'm not sure why that'd remain a significant cost factor over the mid/long-term.

I took 5 years for DVD to get dirt cheap. BD has been around for one year, so I guess we have 4 years left.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

I took 5 years for DVD to get dirt cheap. BD has been around for one year, so I guess we have 4 years left.

DVD players first started selling in late 1997. By the end of 2000, players had hit the ~$100 mark. That's 3 years by my count.

The first Blu-ray players started selling in mid-2006. Looks like we've got another year-and-a-half.

 

[patsu]

Why couldn't they? Diodes are getting extremely cheap, and so are the chips required in standalone players as Moore's Law does its magic. Some mechanical parts of the drive are likely still more expensive but I'm not sure why that'd remain a significant cost factor over the mid/long-term.

I have no idea (I don't want to make any assumptions). It's up to BDA and its members to pace the price of their rigs.

 

[Zaphod]

By the end of 2000, players had hit the ~$100 mark.

Where? IIRC, prices didn't approach $100 US until Christmas 2001, and I don't think the cheapest models were consistently under that mark until sometime during 2002.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

Where? IIRC, prices didn't approach $100 US until Christmas 2001, and I don't think the cheapest models were consistently under that mark until sometime during 2002.

I bought one for $100 new-in-box @ retail Christmas '00.

 

[Randell]

When was the PS2 released? Stand alone DVD's didn't go below £200 in the UK until around the PS2 launch.

 

[Zaphod]

I bought one for $100 new-in-box @ retail Christmas '00.

Really? What model?

Nevertheless, I'd say that's quite exceptional and that 2002 is the year DVD players went below a $100 as far as general availability is concerned (which is what should matter when we're talking about mass market penetration).

 

[patsu]

Sony plans $100M investment in Ind. plant

... for Blu-ray replication.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080317/BUSINESS/303170001/0/LOCAL1802

Company officials plan to add at least 65 jobs to the Terre Haute plant as part of the upgrade. Sony wants to invest more than $101 million in new equipment and more than $7.4 million in property improvements, for a total of $108.5 million in new investments.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

Really? What model?

Couldn't tell ya. Way too long ago.

 

[quest55720]

So any word of a blu CE breaking the pricing agreements for the up coming stimulus money? I really don't want to be forced to buy 2 PS3s. If the blu CEs are going to force me down that road because of collusion I will be forced out of principle to go all rentals for the next few years. No way I will reward the blu association for the crap they are pulling at the moment with pricing.

 

[patsu]

So any word of a blu CE breaking the pricing agreements for the up coming stimulus money? I really don't want to be forced to buy 2 PS3s

What do you mean ?