Nintendo on Gamecube Launch
- Thread starter TheChefO
- Start date
TheChefO said:
Yeah, I was just about to post a caveat post actually...
Ok let's be honest here - a lot depends on consumer adoption. And that's why this thing's in PS3. Well, one of several reasons, but the primary reason. PS3 will help that adoption out, but can it help it to reach critical mass? That's something a lot of people on this board have doubts can happen, with or without PS3. There are a lot of good arguments out there for why we're not 'ready' for an HD optical format, and that it will remain niche. I don't believe that myself, but I acknowledge the possibility. Even if Blu-ray were to succeed, if it remained niche, then the royalty stream would be pretty small - nice but small.
If Blu-ray had a slow ramp-up, say over these next five years, but then caught on, well then it depends on how close a successor would be to launching, whether digital distribution is taking a hold at that point, etc etc... so hard to call whether a 'victory' or not.
But if it reached and maintained mass market appeal, either quickly or in the future, it would easily be worth billions to Sony over the course of a decade or two. Every Blu-ray device, every Blu-ray disc (movie, data, writeable, everything...) would provide Sony with a couple of cents in royalties. That would add up to a lot, you can be sure. Enough that Sony and Toshiba have refused to come to an agreement that would mean their own respective shares get smaller.
Whether one triumphs now, they both enjoy limited success, or they both fail is something we'll just have to watch as it happens. But they're willing to take big risks - clearly - on the matter.
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xbdestroya said:
True very big risks - it would be good to get some clear numbers on exactly what they're potentially gaining, and of course what they have to lose.
Back on topic -
I think if Nintendo can strike while the iron is hot this xmas with as many units as they can produce (3m?5m?) then they can cleanup. They are launching with the equivilant of a second generation software wave. (im not saying it matches 360/ps3 just quantity and quality). With proper marketing they could own the majority of sales and secure a good user base quicker than sony can say "price drop". This opportunity is very time limited in my opinion though (as many have pointed out by 2007-2008 the graphic difference could be too big to ignore).
This obviously would not make the user base go away but at that point the price of the competition could be attractive enough to purchase even after the Wii faithful have blown $200 on launch day. Once this happens obviously anyone who has both systems will by the version for the more powerful 360/ps3. Sure Nintendo can still sell their next zelda or mario but the 3rd parties will flee i fear.
The Moral to the story is Build them like mad Nintendo while you still can!
TheChefO said:
For writeable CD's I know Sony, Philips, and Taiyo Yuden were splitting 8.3 cents per disc in 2001 - not sure for staright audio CDs what it is/was. (these things get renegotiated from time to time)
In early 2005 the DVD crew was getting $4 per hardware iteration and 5 cents per writeable disc. (that has been cut some recently)
Anyway I'm sure there are folk here who have the rates memorized and can rattle them off, but these are just some of the ones I recall and refreshed myself on just now.
TheChefO said:
Well, DVD in the first place Sony was involved in because they compromised with Toshiba. It's kind of the same deal this time around, only no compromise. Since both discs have different physical structures, independently developed, the companies behind each respective format will reap the majority of the licensing fees, and Sony et al simply refuse to diminish that this time around. Well, same for Toshiba and gang also, but theirs is the 'annointed' successor to DVD, making their position a little more understandable.
Anyway there are people here that know a lot more than me on this subject, so I leave it to them. As you said before, let's get back on topic.
xbdestroya said:Well, DVD in the first place Sony was involved in because they compromised with Toshiba. It's kind of the same deal this time around, only no compromise. Since both discs have different physical structures, independently developed, the companies behind each respective format will reap the majority of the licensing fees, and Sony et al simply refuse to diminish that this time around. Well, same for Toshiba and gang also, but theirs is the 'annointed' successor to DVD, making their position a little more understandable.
Anyway there are people here that know a lot more than me on this subject, so I leave it to them. As you said before, let's get back on topic.
interesting - although from what I recall Sony got tired of waiting for the dvd group to finalize and went ahead with the spec as it was and shipped the first dvd players to market before everyone "agreed". I still have it actually running in my bedroom (well the cheaper option as $1000 was a bit crazy but $500 was reasonable).
Back on topic - Anyone think Nintendo may go software only after this gen if 3rd party abandons the wii after a few years?
mckmas8808
Legend
TheChefO said:
NO!! You yourself knows that Nintendo will make a killing off selling their own software on their own machine. You also know that they will probably be making a profit easily within the first year from Wii. So the answer is clearly no.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
TheChefO said:
That topic has been talked to death before, and it's irritating to see it pop up as there is ZERO reasons for Nintendo to do that, study the business numbers and you'll realise this yourself.
mckmas8808 said:
heres the problem though - they will make money on the hardware yes and they make money on software they make and a royalty off 3rd party games. but if in 3 years 3rd party games go away because everyone would rather buy their multiplat games (the majority of the games on the market) on a more powerful platform (ps3/360) then that means Nintendo makes no money off 3rd party sales. also with the system being a cash cow even at that low price (200) I can see them quickly bring the price down to very low prices early in its life cycle which means 3 years out anyone who wants one would have one by that time. (no more hw sales)
At this point Nintendo would make money on the games they sell on Wii, but they could do the same by selling their games on another platform.
They've always been fiscally smart and they know their exclusivity would be worth something to which ever party they decide to join. ms and sony know this as well. If they're not going to compete tech wise they should bring the peripherals and games to those that will compete and push tech forward.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
TheChefO said:
I myself don't like the way Nintendo is going with Wii as I'm a bit of a graphics whore, but there is little doubt in my mind that Nintendo will sell atleast as many Wii's as there are Gamecubes, I believe that they will Exceed Gamecube numbers. I wouldn't question Nintendos ability to make money as history has taught us, they are very good at it.
I don't know if I'll ever buy Wii as Nintendo's games have never really been my thing, but I have always respected their achievements and after evaluating the market situation, I think it's a bit insulting to succest that they are going to quit hardware business...
mckmas8808
Legend
TheChefO said:
Plain and simple Chef, Nintendo makes too much money 1st party wise from their handhelds and console games to go 3rd party.
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