Nintendo Conference

[liolio]

dreamcast 2.0 anyone?

an in-between generations console with a freaky controller concept, sounds familiar.


nintendo does have more going on than sega at the time and the existing competitors are much older so I don't want to predict nintendos end as a hardware company. But I would be hugely surprised if Wii U would repeat the success of the Wii. Frankly I think they will have a very hard time breaking 50 million units sold.

Why I think Wii U is a very risky project and could very well be seen as a failure 10 years from now:
- in-between generations console
- ms and sony will release next generations consoles 2013 the earliest and 2015 the latest. which gives the Wii U only about 1-3 years before it will be horribly outdated.
- 3rd Party Support with Ports and Releases of xbox/ps3 games not as big a plus as some think. Nintendos neglect of Core gamers let to a complete absence of a multiplayer community. Why buy Battlefield 3 on Wii U when all your friends play online with xbox live or PSN?
- Nintendo Franchises no longer the big-seller they once were. While Mario, Zelda and Metroid games still have a lot of Fans but they are no longer must have titles and the gaming world generally moved away from the genres these games fing themselves in.
- Not a natural "upgrade" for Wii owners. Wii was all about motion control. Sure it's fully compatible to Wii stuff, but someone who bought the Wii for Wii Fit or Wii Sports won't have a better experience with Wii U, why should these people upgrade?
- 1 Controller per Console. While not 100% confirmed it seems very likely that 1 Wii U can only Support 1 new controller. This would make a ton of great opportunities impossible.

But in the end the games and the price will most likely determine the success of the console. Let's see if nintendo offers an interesting enough package to win back some of the core gaming community, because Wii U will not be carried by casuals.

Imho it all depends on the specs, if Nintendo played well Sony and Ms won't be able to significantly out run the system (I mean lowering the resolution and scaling down a bit the asset should do the trick).
If the system is not powerful enough, well it will be tough for them. There a re other considerations time of release (better be early 2012), the online infrastrucutre and the price.

 

[hoho]

Another thing to consider is that nintendo could possibly release a next console a couple years after next PS/XB and yet again leapfrog them.

 

[function]

I'd like to turn that around. Just what would have been required from that Youtube-video to demonstrate a leap beyond the PS360? It would be awfully hard to demonstrate. How would you expect the successors of the PS360 to demonstrate such a leap?

Yeah, it would be hard to demonstrate. And especially in highly compressed and often blurry youtube videos (as I've said). I can't see it, and so I'm asking people that say they can.

I expected the WiiU to have just enough CPU to comfortably handle 360 ports, and about 2 (or maybe 3) times the GPU. And it may still have that, I just can't tell from the video.

Personally, I'd have been happy to see some GI porn (explicit, not subtle) and some crazy interactive GPU physics (with no possible gameplay application) and some realistic looking water with fluid dynamics or something. For all I know the bird/pond demo could have been running at 1080p/60 Hz, but if it wasn't that would be a good way to show off too.

Take a look at how performance has scaled at the same power draw the last 6 years. Assume unchanged launch power draws for MS and Sonys new consoles. (Which I doubt). Then divide the rendering power by increases in rendering resolution (Yay!) and higher framerates (Yay!) necessary to allow for stereoscopic 3D.

Oh sure, it'll start out that way, but when Crysis 4 lands at 1024 x 720 / 30hz ...

There's not an awful lot left, and that will probably be spent on somewhat better shadows or dicking around with DOF. Moral of the story - don't expect quantum leaps in youtube videos.
The advances that probably will be offered, more information at higher frame-rates, larger seamless environments due to higher memory capacities, while very welcome and worthwhile won't typically be visible in compressed video snippets on the internet.

Oh I do agree. Which is why I'm even more keen to know what it is that people are seeing that I can't!

 

[function]

May well be.
However, it does seem to be a CPU, and what other CPUs with embedded DRAM do they have? And why would they choose to show that instead of the Wii U CPU? But you are perfectly correct that these kinds of exercises are fraught with danger, and I would much rather hear directly from IBM than from anyone making guesses on the internet (including me) what manner of beast this CPU really is.

Perhaps the WiiU CPU can give us an indication of what IBM might be able to offer for the Xbox 3 and PS4? Well not currently, because we don't know anything about the WiiU CPU, but if we did ...

 

[function]

dreamcast 2.0 anyone?

Day 1!

But in the end the games and the price will most likely determine the success of the console. Let's see if nintendo offers an interesting enough package to win back some of the core gaming community, because Wii U will not be carried by casuals.

I dunno, I think the idea of the new pad could be sold to lots of the same people that already own Wiis. And if you can use your existing Wiimotes and balance board and games then that should help the new system carry over.

 

[function]

Well we have no idea what kind of power envelope the system has. While I'm doubtful of RV770 in the system RV740 makes some sense to me if clocked low.

Something along the lines of RV740 was what I was thinking of too. With some fast GDDR5 memory could probably feed the CPU too on a 128 bit bus.

 

[Rangers]

I'd like to turn that around. Just what would have been required from that Youtube-video to demonstrate a leap beyond the PS360? It would be awfully hard to demonstrate. How would you expect the successors of the PS360 to demonstrate such a leap?

Take a look at how performance has scaled at the same power draw the last 6 years. Assume unchanged launch power draws for MS and Sonys new consoles. (Which I doubt). Then divide the rendering power by increases in rendering resolution (Yay!) and higher framerates (Yay!) necessary to allow for stereoscopic 3D.
There's not an awful lot left, and that will probably be spent on somewhat better shadows or dicking around with DOF. Moral of the story - don't expect quantum leaps in youtube videos.
The advances that probably will be offered, more information at higher frame-rates, larger seamless environments due to higher memory capacities, while very welcome and worthwhile won't typically be visible in compressed video snippets on the internet.

Ahh, the old, always wrong, "diminishing returns" bit. As I've recounted a million times, the first time I read that old saw was in a magazine (did not have the internet back then!) in reference to the SNES. The editor postulated that TV's could not display much better graphics than the SNES, it was the end of the line.

We already see PC games quite above what PS360 can do (witcher 2, BF3). And yes, it's noticeable in youtube videos.

It's funny we have people complaining all the time that every game is not 1080P, 60 FPS, with 16XAA. Even to get there would require a huge increase, that's without touching the base graphics.

I just think that we're starved for more power. Not the opposite. That is why so many games try to squeeze that last ounce of graphics out, and run 25-30 FPS in sub 720p.

So many people seem to think we wont get much better gfx than we have now. I believe in contrast, next gen is going to bring a graphical leap never before seen in history. The reason being is that in the past, PC's kept advancing while consoles were stuck. Today we have little to no high end PC development, so the sheer leap we will see next gen is going to be nothing less than mind boggling imo, because we've simply never experienced it before.

Whether Wii2 will bring even a taste of that graphical glory, well it's obviously a bit unknown imo at the moment.

 

[Rangers]

Nintendo stock fell 5.7% on Wii U announcement, for whatever it's worth http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=433109

I think it's an indication that whatever your stance, the reveal could have gone better.

 

[Entropy]

So many people seem to think we wont get much better gfx than we have now. I believe in contrast, next gen is going to bring a graphical leap never before seen in history. The reason being is that in the past, PC's kept advancing while consoles were stuck. Today we have little to no high end PC development, so the sheer leap we will see next gen is going to be nothing less than mind boggling imo, because we've simply never experienced it before.

I look forward to having my mind boggled.
I'm not holding my breath though.

 

[dobwal]

The PS3 slim isn´t that big and it has an internal power supply:
http://www.ifixit.com/Teardown/PlayStation-3-Slim-Teardown/1121/1

It may be a stretch but shouldn´t it be possible to deliver something 2-3 years after the PS3 slim with more power but not more heat?

The Slim is alot bigger than a Mac Mini which roughly the same size as the Wii-U mock up. Take the 360 S, the die size of the XCGPU is only 169mm2 on 45nm at 327 million transitors. A 4850 with its billion transitors even at 40nm is going to rival the XCGPU in size by itself (260 mm2 at 55nm). If Nintendo can put a 40nm 4850 paired with a Power based GPU into a Mac Mini size console then why couldn't MS.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Not that I know much about it but, not every chip design always outputs the same amount of heat at a certain size right? So maybe whatever amd/ibm is going to come up with is quite efficient?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

The Slim is alot bigger than a Mac Mini which roughly the same size as the Wii-U mock up. Take the 360 S, the die size of the XCGPU is only 169mm2 on 45nm at 327 million transitors. A 4850 with its billion transitors even at 40nm is going to rival the XCGPU in size by itself (260 mm2 at 55nm). If Nintendo can put a 40nm 4850 paired with a Power based GPU into a Mac Mini size console then why couldn't MS.

There's a whole lot of reasons why the WiiU could consume less than X360 S while having more performance, just by using a superior and more power-conscious architecture.


For example, the X360 is stuck at 3.2GHz, which isn't a "power-friendly" frequency even today.
The WiiU's CPU could be a whole lot faster while using lower clocks. A 4-core PowerPC A2 @ ~2 GHz should consume a lot less than a 3.2GHz Xenon using the same sized transistors, while having fairly superior performance overall.
The 4-core version of PowerPC A2 @ 1.4GHz is rated at 20W, for example. Take out some L2 cache and a more matured process and maybe you could go for 2GHz within the same power envelope.


Another example, the XCGPU is also "stuck" with using 10MB eDRAM, which could be a power hog.
A high-binned 1B transistor 40nm Juniper @500MHz consumes as little as ~24W with 1GB DDR3 (see Mobility HD5830), which is not all that much either.

Another possibility would be to have the GPU using GF's 32nm, which would push the power consumption further down.


In the end, the WiiU could be a ~60-70W power-efficient system that doesn't need more than a small-ish heatsink with a vapour chamber and\or heatpipes and a couple of small, low-speed fans.

 

[Arwin]

I look forward to having my mind boggled.
I'm not holding my breath though.

He could be right, but note that by the time we see those machines we may well be 10 years from the start of the previous gen, which is the biggest gap we've ever seen. At that point though, it is likely we'll have seen some PC developers do work that is at a very similar level. Where else are these programmers going to learn to code for the next-gen after all? That's definitely one lesson I've learnt from last gen, that there has to be a healthy connection between PC development ('dev school') and next-gen console development.

 

[function]

A high-binned 1B transistor 40nm Juniper @500MHz consumes as little as ~24W with 1GB DDR3 (see Mobility HD5830), which is not all that much either.

Graphics card tdp figures don't fill me with confidence! Even 3D Mark has been shown to cause some cards to blow way past tdp figures. Even games can exceed them (lol nVidia).

Besides, Nintendo can't afford to throw 90% of their working processors in the trash in order to harvest only the most select cuts of silicon - it's not like they can put the rest in lower performing or better cooled machines. Desktop parts are more representative than mobile IMO.

 

[L. Scofield]

Watch this in HD. It's a bit more telling.

Hadn't seen the extended demo. Amazing.

-Water splashes are polygonal, not just a sprites.
-Indirect lighting. Probably realtime since the time of day changes.
-When the bird flies after it starts raining and time slows down you can see caustics projected onto the birds belly. Great attention to detail.

Definately better than what we've seen on PS3/360.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Graphics card tdp figures don't fill me with confidence! Even 3D Mark has been shown to cause some cards to blow way past tdp figures. Even games can exceed them (lol nVidia).

Even when desktop GPUs do pass the TDP, it's only in the ultra-high end where clocks are being pushed to the limit and TDP isn't really such a big concern.

Besides, I don't know if laptop GPUs can afford to ever go past their TDP, as requirements for cooling and power supply are way more critical.

Besides, Nintendo can't afford to throw 90% of their working processors in the trash in order to harvest only the most select cuts of silicon - it's not like they can put the rest in lower performing or better cooled machines. Desktop parts are more representative than mobile IMO.

Oh I didn't suggest Nintendo would use only high-binned chips (and I'm not sure how you got those 90%, but ok). Just that a (supposedly) high-binned 40nm 1B transistor GPU @ 500MHz consumed about 24W when it was introduced, 18 months ago.

High-binning in January 2010 doesn't mean high-binning today for the same chip, does it?

 

[bkilian]

Watch this in HD. It's a bit more telling.

Very nice. I take back my previous comments, they were more likely the result of the low quality streaming. Still, everyone at the beginning of the thread was blown away at the quality of the sizzle reel as compared to other demos, and we've subsequently found out that the sizzle reel was 360/pc/ps3 footage, so I'd say they'll get good results (as good or better than 360) out of a small form factor using less power than the current consoles (due to efficiency progress made in the last 5 years), but unless they're using intel's new 3d transistors, their power/performance ratio is only going to be a little better than current consoles.

Where they'll get their returns is (hopefully) out of order processing and GPU tech advances. Their form factor dictates their power envelope, and from that alone I can't see them being much more powerful than 360/ps3. Even the PS3, and I stand in awe of Sony's technical prowess in board and cooling design, needs a bigger form factor than what they've shown for the Wii U.

 

[Entropy]

He could be right, but note that by the time we see those machines we may well be 10 years from the start of the previous gen, which is the biggest gap we've ever seen. At that point though, it is likely we'll have seen some PC developers do work that is at a very similar level. Where else are these programmers going to learn to code for the next-gen after all? That's definitely one lesson I've learnt from last gen, that there has to be a healthy connection between PC development ('dev school') and next-gen console development.

Graphics rendering advances have an upper bound. Make this thought experiment:
Take a given game, and replace the rendered graphics with filmed actors. You are now seeing the scenes in complete realism. Imagine.
Now - how much would your immersion increase by that?

It's an honest question, and I guess the answer will vary from person to person, but for me it's clear that we are past the point where I stop caring from a gameplay point of view. I'm still in my room sitting on my butt staring at pixels on the screen - more realistic rendering won't increase my involvement anymore. (I may still take a technical interest though, but from a functional standpoint it has ceased to make a difference for me.)

 

[Megadrive1988]

I'm blown away by the Garden/Bird tech demo, do we know if it's truly real-time, a target render, CGI, what? This is crazy.

 

[DeadlyNinja]

I'm blown away by the Garden/Bird tech demo, do we know if it's truly real-time, a target render, CGI, what? This is crazy.

In the 3 minute long off screen footage, you can see the people being able to move the camera. It's realtime. Apparently, there's another behind the scenes video that blows it away, but it's for the press only. IGN was talking about it.