Next Generation Sales

[Johnny Awesome]

I originally thought that the market would come out something like this:

Sony - 53%
MS - 38%
Nintendo - 10%

But with the Revolution controller being shown I think I'd have to change my prediction to:

Sony - 48%
MS - 33%
Nintendo - 20%

My reasoning is that a lot of people who buy a second console will be more likely to make their second console a Revolution now that it is bringing something fresh to the table. 200 million units in total for this generation seems like a reasonable estimate as well IMO.

What does everyone else think?

 

[London Geezer]

Again with your numbers that have no relation with reality?! Really, what on earth are you talking about?

I think it's something like Sony 53.87%, MS 23.65% and Nintendo 22.48%. Why? Because.

I mean it's like reading a post from a mentally impaired person.

"Sorry guys, the numbers i pulled out of my ass some time ago were wrong, these new numbers are better!!"

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Just because you don't find this interesting LB, doesn't mean others don't. Some of us have fun with this stuff. As long as the debate is civil, what's the harm?

 

[London Geezer]

I just think it's crazy. Sorry for being rude.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

No problem. I'm just curious how all the intelligent people on this forum think things are shaking out at this point. I'm interested in hearing all the opinions.

 

[London Geezer]

No problem. I'm just curious how all the intelligent people on this forum think things are shaking out at this point. I'm interested in hearing all the opinions.

That's good and all, but pulling out 53%'s and 38%'s then "changing idea" and pull out 48%'s and 38%'s sounds like loon's talk.

We should talk about how we think things will shape up but i can't be the only one to find the above absolutely crazy.

 

[PC-Engine]

I have to agree that people who get a second console will get a Revolution instead of the other console.

 

[BlueTsunami]

I have to agree that people who get a second console will get a Revolution instead of the other console.

I also agree with this. Revolution seems to be the only console that is escaping bias hatred. So you would have Nintendo gamers (that buy it as a primary platform) and PS3/360 gamers getting the Rev as a secondary console. I have a feeling the Revolution may explode (in a good way).

 

[Synergy34]

I've said on other forums in the past that I will not get another Nintendo console but I really like the new controller. It just looks like fun and i really can't wait to see what devs will do with it. I can now see myself owning a Rev at some point but when I get it will be determined when a price is announced.

A 360 right now is out of the question until I see what impact splitting the HDD market is going to do. If it is supported with DL content by most devs then I get one. I don't want to drop an extra 100 on a HDD if there is nothing to do with it besides games saves. I'm not interested Media Center connectivity.

PS3, I'll probably get it. I would really like to see some kind of online plan annouced by Sony though. All I really would like to see, is a universal friend list to show me who is online and what games they are playing. Don't need much more than that.

 

[Edge]

> "Again with your numbers that have no relation with reality?!"

Another fantasy thread by JA. Who would have ever thought. I agree LB, these threads are hardly thought provoking or contribute to any meaningful discussion. We all could fantasize away, and be a million miles away from each other.

 

[dukmahsik]

i predict:

360 100% of market until spring 06

 

[Inane_Dork]

Shaking up? The Rev is as far from being a platform while still being one. Little to no games, dates, prices or specs. It's a heck of a lot easier to get excited about potential than reality. Ask MS if you want proof.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Well, I don't think it's fantasy so much as educated guesses.

Sony should still win based on brand power and their strength in Japan, but MS should be extremely competitive in the US and reasonable competitive in Europe due to their new European concurent release strategy. Nintendo has its 20 million core fans and they'll probably attract some newcomers with the innovative possibilities of the Rev controller.

 

[Magnum PI]

> "Again with your numbers that have no relation with reality?!"

Another fantasy thread by JA. Who would have ever thought. I agree LB, these threads are hardly thought provoking or contribute to any meaningful discussion. We all could fantasize away, and be a million miles away from each other.

I can only agree with you..

As usual, JA is pulling some numbers from his ass^H^H^H^H^H^H^Hthe air, just his usual wishful thinking..

He was of the people who against every reason predicted the end of nintendo hardware, the rather divergent reality wasn't enough for him to learn the lesson.

Now he is exercising his mediumistc gift again, decidely some people have no shame.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I never predicted the end of Nintendo hardware. Just the end of Nintendo as a mainstream player. Most of my predictions over the last few years have been true.

 

[Teasy]

I never predicted the end of Nintendo hardware. Just the end of Nintendo as a mainstream player. Most of my predictions over the last few years have been true.

Like your prediction that Revolution would be the same system as XBox 360 under some kind of MS/Nintendo alliance you mean?

 

[wazoo]

I think Johnny is quite right in its predictions. Who would have thought that the GC would never reach above 25M at the beginning of this gen ??

My opinion is that Nintendo is going in its own niche. Who cares if a tamagauchi game is ruling the japanese sales. It is not my definition of gaming. And relying on a special controller is quite risky. Who remenber how much Donkey Kong Jungle Beat sold ??

So MS can only go up considering they have already get a (distant) 2nd place and only one real competitor.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Teasy, that thread was just for fun. I didn't seriously think MS/Nintendo were going to use the same hardware.

Thanks for the vote of confidence Wazoo, I find that as time goes on I'm getting a better feel for what consumers are going to do. The numbers I post are just there to give some reference point to my arguments.

 

[Black Dragon37]

i predict:

360 100% of market until spring 06

While the PS2 is still out? You must be joking!

 

[Johnny Awesome]

This thread was about next-generation sales, so he's correct.