Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

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Recently had this pop up on my feed. Seems it could apply to next gen APUs as well. Pretty cool method to manage power droop without sacrificing nominal clock speed or power profiles:

https://www.realworldtech.com/steamroller-clocking/

Since 2014, some level of adoption was marketed for Steamroller and beyond for x86 and for GCN 1.2 and later GPUs. AMD's Carrizo presentation listed this under the Voltage Adaptive Operation moniker, with a nebulous 5-10% power savings mentioned. AMD touted this as a new feature for multiple GPU generations, though there were claims that at least some of them did not enable a significant number of their power management features outside of their launch slides.

It seems as if there's more effort in taking it out for any future microarchitectures.

I stopped caring about API discussions after the following sequence of events:
- A console's low level API should logically allow more efficient code
- Supposedly not true
- But aren't high level APIs more rigid since they are multi-vendor HAL?
- again supposedly not the case
...
- DX12 and Vulcan are revolutionary and double the frame rate

At least points 1 and 3 seem like generally measured and accurate descriptions of certain aspects of low and high level API behaviors, while the others seem rather straw-man or not well-grounded.

Back to hardware, how much does RT hardware support require a compromise elsewhere? I was thinking the more generalized the hardware is, the less it compromises die area since it will see continuous usage with other tasks.
It would depend on what counts as the target RT workload, what aspects are supported in hardware, and what form that support takes. The longtime rough rule of thumb to follow from hardwired specific-purpose, to specialized, to general has been something like moving along a continuum with a 10x increase in complexity and overhead for those three points.

If there's no highly specific algorithm, the most area and power efficient hardwired scheme would likely be too inflexible, but the other end of the spectrum is hardware that needs significantly more area and infrastructure to be used generally.
General-purpose hardware also tends to need the surrounding infrastructure to scale up to allow its being used more generally, which can lead to knock-on effects where other portions of the chip become more heavily burdened or need to grow outside of the generalized unit.
 
7nm/EUV processes more challenging than anticipated, further delays to be expected:

https://www.techpowerup.com/243235/...hnologies-could-lead-to-delays-in-process-ttm
Techpowerup, for all of Wizzards graphics cards pedigree, may not be an ideal source for lithography information. The author tossing in ”250mm wafers” doesn’t inspire confidence either.
Yes there are issues going forward. Obviously. But sources much closer to the lithographic industry aren’t panicking.
Besides, the foundries are free to name their process nodes however they like. ;-)
 
Maybe. Maybe not. I think 7nm PS4 could be as small as PS2. Pro can not (PSU, cooling).
Anyway - too much choice for a consumer. I think Sony will stop selling Pro.

If you dont have a good story to with the devices, I agree then to much choice can confuse people.

But

PS4 = The casual gamer that wants access to the PS4 library
PS4P = The casual gamer that wants access to the PS4 library, but got a 4K Tv they want to get maximum ROI on.
PS5 = The gamer that needs the latest and the greatest, but as a bonus you get access the PS4 library.

I think this story will work when the PS5 launches, nobody gets annoyed that the PS4 can not play PS5 games, but the other way around can happen.

Now if you can get the Pro down to the price of the classic, then fine. Which can happen, if the volume pricing brings you there.
Instead of ordering 1M PS4 and 200K PS4P, at cost X, they get 1.2M PS4P at cost X. Then dropping the classic might be worth it.

I know Gladwell rubs some people the wrong way, but I do like this story

https://www.ted.com/talks/malcolm_gladwell_on_spaghetti_sauce/transcript
 
Agreed. A Pro Slim would be an ideal mass market device - great for 1080p and PSVR, decent for 4K, and tons of content.

And Sony need to compete with the Switch, so a portable PS4 should come sooner rather than later.

Why do they need to compete with Switch? Was Vita (and PSP) a successful product, by that I mean, did it achieve the goals that Sony har for the product?
 
Why do they need to compete with Switch? Was Vita (and PSP) a successful product, by that I mean, did it achieve the goals that Sony har for the product?

PSP was a worldwide success at ~80 million consoles sold. The Vita unfortunately was practically declared D.O.A. at release time from Sony because they were afraid of the rise of tablets and smartphones, but even then it became quite the success in Japan with almost 6 million sales there. That's almost as much as the PS4 in that country.

Regardless, the point isn't that the Switch needs competition.
It's that the 3DS and Switch have proven that there's nothing to be afraid from Android and iOS because that market is only welcoming to F2P or very cheap casual games.
A PS4 Go would have an instant library of the latest AAA games with the (arguably) best AAA exclusives on day one, and PS Plus subscribers would already have some of those games in their accounts.
E.g.: Bloodborne, Infamous Second Son, Ratchet & Clank, Mad Max, Deux Ex: Mankind Divided, MGS V and many more.
Imagine being able to play those on the go the second you purchase the console, because they're already in most people's Plus accounts..
 
It's that the 3DS and Switch have proven that there's nothing to be afraid from Android and iOS because that market is only welcoming to F2P or very cheap casual games.
I wouldn't say it's only welcoming to F2P or cheap casual games, but that the TAM is much broader in comparison. Developers can make far more selling apps for a dollar or involving micro-transactions with a huge base. The real question is what level of hardware performance is required by the game or application and is the software portable. Another generation of hardware/software and it's not inconceivable that high-end or mainstream smartphones could be able to play older games. Possibly at similar or lower graphics targets than 3DS/Switch, but the revenue potential there for devs would be well worth their investment. That's not even considering the potential for streaming on suitable titles.
 
Techpowerup, for all of Wizzards graphics cards pedigree, may not be an ideal source for lithography information. The author tossing in ”250mm wafers” doesn’t inspire confidence either.
Yes there are issues going forward. Obviously. But sources much closer to the lithographic industry aren’t panicking.
Besides, the foundries are free to name their process nodes however they like. ;-)
The true source is EETimesAsia, which is reputable. This is also a running story I’ve seen elsewhere - trying to understand, predict and counteract sources of error with EUV at 5nm and below.
 
The true source is EETimesAsia, which is reputable. This is also a running story I’ve seen elsewhere - trying to understand, predict and counteract sources of error with EUV at 5nm and below.

True, but this news has no real relevance for the next gen consoles. Samsung is pretty bullish on 7nm EUV and i believe TSMC also won't have so many problems. With 5nm and below things might change, but the next gen consoles will pretty sure arrive in 7nm.
 
I wouldn't say it's only welcoming to F2P or cheap casual games, but that the TAM is much broader in comparison. Developers can make far more selling apps for a dollar or involving micro-transactions with a huge base.

I don't know about iOS, but the Play Store has their "Top Charts" in accordance with the games with the most downloads, and those are all F2P. You can choose to browse the "premium" games (the ones you have to pay up-front), but the top charts for those are also based on number of downloads and we get back to the 99c games.
There are a number of high-profile ported games in there, but they're exceptionally expensive. Why should anyone have to pay €10 for the 15 year-old KOTOR?

Then there's no cohesive way to separate the games that should be played with a controller from the ones with touchscreen controls.. because Google never bothered to deploy a decent standard for game controllers on Android.

The Play Store doesn't have a section dedicated to high-quality (i.e. console experience) games, where devices with decent gamepads would be supported.

I hate kotaku and linking their articles, but this article is just as important today as it was 5 years ago when it was released:
https://kotaku.com/the-moga-pro-should-have-lead-the-android-gamepad-invas-488025917

This is what Sony was afraid of when they sentenced Vita to an early drought of 1st party support, but what was left was a hole for higher-quality mobile games that the 3DS couldn't cover because of its weak hardware.

The current shape of the high-end gaming market on Android today is ridiculous. People have been buying smartphones with SoCs that carry fully featured >400 GFLOPs GPUs, 30GB/s bandwidth, gorgeous screens, 64GB of storage plus SD cards, Google developing extensions for OpenGL ES to get feature parity with DX11, then developing support for low-overhead APIs for lower power consumption, etc.etc.
And what do we get with all of that? HearthStone and Clash Royale.


I know the casual fast games with microtransactions have a much larger TAM, but the ecosystems built around the App Store and Play Store just aren't giving any chance for high quality immersive games to thrive, and that's why the 3DS had a pretty decent success.


Another generation of hardware/software and it's not inconceivable that high-end or mainstream smartphones could be able to play older games.

That's not the problem IMO.
Save for $60 chinese smartphones with ultra-low-end mediatek SoCs, any smartphone released in 2015 could play PSP, 3DS, PS2, Xbox and Gamecube/Wii titles at 540p or higher. We could have had that 3 years ago.

Right now, any smartphone with a Snapdragon 820 or better can play X360, PS3 and Wii U titles at 720p or higher.

In ~4 years, we'll probably have smartphones that can comfortably run ports of PS4/Xbone games, and that won't change a thing until a specialized market and gamepad standards are implemented by Google/Apple.

That's why the Switch is successful and why there's a perfect gap in place for a PS4 Go / XBOne Go handheld.
 
True, but this news has no real relevance for the next gen consoles. Samsung is pretty bullish on 7nm EUV and i believe TSMC also won't have so many problems. With 5nm and below things might change, but the next gen consoles will pretty sure arrive in 7nm.

It will affect their ability to shrink and cost cut for console revisions, which could be interesting for console lifespan.

They have a lot of avenues to explore beyond feature aperture though. I’m interested to see how they all address true 3D FET structures like gate-all-around (nanowire) or other topologies. They’ll also have to start exploring other materials again, such as going back to SiGe or even other III-V materials typically reserved for RF applications. There’s also strained-Si where they are playing with the lattice structure. GloFo and Samsung have also established FDSOI lines, which have remarkable leakage and threshold properties. They may have to leverage that into higher power chips with leading feature sizes.

Graphene is further off, but not dead entirely. Eventually we’ll orobably have quantum effect devices, but semiconductors still have plenty of life.
 
The true source is EETimesAsia, which is reputable. This is also a running story I’ve seen elsewhere - trying to understand, predict and counteract sources of error with EUV at 5nm and below.
Yup, but as you indicate yourself in another post, there are avenues to pursue. And no-one really believes (hopes) that the next generation consoles target the 5nm node.

It is really tricky for a layperson to evaluate how easy or difficult it is to control "problems" in cutting edge lithography, it's difficult even for those directly involved! Say that efficiency would be helped a lot with a better mask material for EUV. Well - will we find one? There is work being done trying to come up with one, but how long will it take? So the industry works on several avenues of progress simultaneously to adress the throughput problem and that approach pretty much goes for all aspects of the lithographic process. These days a new node is defined by sufficient accumulated advances for a new process to be worthwhile for customers. I've been picking up the same signals about the EUV at finer geometries, but on the other hand there has been no shifting of schedules communicated (or statements made) indicating that the issues would be impossible to either resolve or work around in the time spans allotted.

In the context of consoles, assuming that the next generation of consoles released will be using TSMC (or GF?) 7nm, console gamers can then be sitting pretty until 2028 or so, ten years out! I'm rather confident that the foundries will have advanced their processes enough to make a change worthwhile until then, after all "slim" models show up when and if it makes sense from a cost perspective, but they don't change the basic capabilities of the platform.
 
In the context of consoles, assuming that the next generation of consoles released will be using TSMC (or GF?) 7nm, console gamers can then be sitting pretty until 2028 or so, ten years out!
What?
 
Yup, but as you indicate yourself in another post, there are avenues to pursue. And no-one really believes (hopes) that the next generation consoles target the 5nm node.

It is really tricky for a layperson to evaluate how easy or difficult it is to control "problems" in cutting edge lithography, it's difficult even for those directly involved! Say that efficiency would be helped a lot with a better mask material for EUV. Well - will we find one? There is work being done trying to come up with one, but how long will it take? So the industry works on several avenues of progress simultaneously to adress the throughput problem and that approach pretty much goes for all aspects of the lithographic process. These days a new node is defined by sufficient accumulated advances for a new process to be worthwhile for customers. I've been picking up the same signals about the EUV at finer geometries, but on the other hand there has been no shifting of schedules communicated (or statements made) indicating that the issues would be impossible to either resolve or work around in the time spans allotted.

In the context of consoles, assuming that the next generation of consoles released will be using TSMC (or GF?) 7nm, console gamers can then be sitting pretty until 2028 or so, ten years out! I'm rather confident that the foundries will have advanced their processes enough to make a change worthwhile until then, after all "slim" models show up when and if it makes sense from a cost perspective, but they don't change the basic capabilities of the platform.

Agreed that consoles are no way targeting 5nm. 7nm+ perhaps, but that would certainly be a 2021 launch I would think.

I was also just alluding to how long a “slim” will take to show up. 5nm will have to be cost effective to warrant a shrink, so I would say 3-4 years for a slim would be the min we are looking at.

Either way, I think 7nm is going to be a workhorse node for a lot of people. TSMC’s cost focused 7HPC kind of underscores that.

As to who consoles will go to for 7nm, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was GloFo. Signals indicate they’re targeting higher power applications with their process, which makes sense if they want to build high TDP AMD processors and future PowerPC monsters. They’re also trying to increase the max die size they can crank out to around 700mm^2 (!!) The question is of course capacity. Fab 8 is their only 7nm line, and while I read they’re increasing wafer capacity, it’s still just a single location with a 60-80K wafer/month capacity.
 
Can we please keep PS4Pro 2 and PS4 Portable discussion out of this thread. There are threads for these. This thread is for next-gen home consoles (PS5, neXtBox, Nintendo Wazzoo if it's a home console).

This is your last reminder. Further OT posts will be removed and possible thread bans applied. Check the thread title before posting any replies to ensure you're not on an OT tangent.
 
Random tought, maybe we will finally see dynamic boost frequencies used on consoles, and modern power management states instead of full power max clock as soon as a title is started. The sony patent about BC to test all sort of higher and lower clocks all around might be about that?
 
Can we please keep PS4Pro 2 and PS4 Portable discussion out of this thread. There are threads for these. This thread is for next-gen home consoles (PS5, neXtBox, Nintendo Wazzoo if it's a home console).


Ditto.

To be fair, my interpretation was that the PS4 Go would be a Gen 9 handheld, to be in the market alongside the PS5, and it would have better or comparable performance to Nintendo Wazzoo launching in 2023.
There's nothing in the title that locks the discussion to home consoles... perhaps that should be corrected.


Random tought, maybe we will finally see boost frequencies used on consoles, and modern power management states instead of full power max clock as soon as a title is started. The sony patent about BC to test all sort of higher and lower clocks all around might be about that?

I thought game devs hated thermal and power-driven boost frequencies.
The closer you get to metal, the more you want it to work in a predictable manner.

I think e,g, variable refresh rate will be much more of a game changer than frequency boosts can be.
 
Ditto.

To be fair, my interpretation was that the PS4 Go would be a Gen 9 handheld, to be in the market alongside the PS5, and it would have better or comparable performance to Nintendo Wazzoo launching in 2023.
There's nothing in the title that locks the discussion to home consoles... perhaps that should be corrected.




I thought game devs hated thermal and power-driven boost frequencies.
The closer you get to metal, the more you want it to work in a predictable manner.

I think e,g, variable refresh rate will be much more of a game changer than frequency boosts can be.
Thermal would be nasty, it would instead need to be something with good repeatability like power or occupancy or something. As long as it can be monitored and debugged.

If they have the choice between a fixed 1.1 GHz, or a base 1.1 with boost at 1.3 it's a pretty good bargain. The old reason was a risk of race conditions, but with this mid-gen mandatory support, it will have to be tested correctly anyway (hence the testing patent).

I think variable resolution with fixed frame rate is the way to go. It's the ideal solution to completely eliminate judder. Also I don't expect variable refresh support from AV receivers and TVs to be ubiquitous for a long time.
 
Can we please keep PS4Pro 2 and PS4 Portable discussion out of this thread. There are threads for these. This thread is for next-gen home consoles (PS5, neXtBox, Nintendo Wazzoo if it's a home console).
Not intending to go off-topic here, but portables are potentially relevant if there is an intent to make future consoles and portables tiered and/or compatible. Differentiation could exist for Portable < Mid Console (1080P) < High Console (4k/VR), which somewhat exists already, along with backwards compatibility. In the face of Switch sales, that consideration wouldn't seem unreasonable for forward-looking designers. Similar CPU performance profiles between portable and console with the GPU left to drive variable graphics loads through some form of dynamic performance scaling.

I thought game devs hated thermal and power-driven boost frequencies.
The closer you get to metal, the more you want it to work in a predictable manner.

I think e,g, variable refresh rate will be much more of a game changer than frequency boosts can be.
I'd second the VRR as a game changer. Getting rid of the 60Hz minimum in favor of a reasonable average/range makes thermal and boost frequencies more viable. The reason devs hated boosts previously is that a 60Hz target becomes practically impossible to achieve with so many variables. Resolution could drop, but CPU load remains somewhat constant. VRR in combination with dynamic resolutions should be rather flexible across performance tiers and fix that. As mentioned above, broad support for VRR may take a while on displays, but on a future portable it could be guaranteed and that would be the more difficult performance target.
 
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