My thoughts on the Nintendo situation. (I am a Nintendo fan)

[OICAspork]

This is something a drawled out in my online journal, but as few of my friends are big video game fans, I figured it would be more appropriate to post here. No flames desired or intended, just my personal view of the situation.

A lot of people have been forcasting the end of Nintendo's hand held dominance with the very competively priced PSP. I don't think the threat from Sony is as dire as many forcast... Here is why.

While I am VERY surprised at how aggressively the PCP has been priced... you have to keep in mind that the $185ish price is without memory card (neccissary to save games) $25, ac adapter (this thing chugs power) $33, and the case (the way it is designed the screen is going to be a scratch magnet which is why I like the DS/SP clamshell design) $19. So realistically if you want a PSP you are going to have to buy the value pack, which clocks in at $234ish at current exchange rates and comes with everything above + an external battery pack. Following Nintendo's lead and pricing it slightly higher in the US, I expect the value pack to clock in at $250 here, making it a cool $100 more than the DS. None-the-less I think Nintendo should play it safe and drop the price of the DS $25 and the SP by $12.50 (at least!) to try and fight off the monolithic Sony marketing machine.

I have a lot of confidence in Nintendo handheld... and think that Sony may have made a strategic error with the PSP. I think it will be up against the DS for, maybe 2.5-3 years... and then Nintendo will release a true next generation gameboy that will have significantly higher specs... which would destroy Sony's hopes of giving the PSP a 10 year lifespan. So I think Nintendo will do fine in the handheld market. I also feel that having handheld games with console production budgets, console game retail prices (at $50 for PSP versus $30-40 for DS), and require console-like attention spans should better be done on... consoles.

So I think there is room for both PSP and DS, though I do think that the DS will maintain the mainstream advantage with its much lower price (when you consider the actual price of owning a PSP).

Meanwhile, I'm more pessimistic about Nintendo's home console situaiton...

I am a complete Nintendo Fanboy. I'm just about the only person I know that hasn't owned either a PS1 or PS2. Hell my normal journal icon is of a chick pulling a gba from the top of her dress (=D It would be my icon here if I ever got enough posts!) from a Japanese commercial...

When the gamecube launched, it really seemed like they had turned the corner from the dark days of the N64 when so many Nintendo fans felt betrayed by the crap that they endured in the last year or so of the consoles life cycle.

Early in the life of the Gamecube lots of Nintendo exclusive 3rd party titles were announced. The biggest list of exclusives came from Capcom with the announcement a new development studio partially funded by Nintendo, and at the time announced 5 exclusive gamecube titles in November of 2002:

The list included:
Product Number 03
Viewtiful Joe
Dead Pheonix
Killer 7

and most importantly
Resident Evil 4...

All of these were games targeting mature audiences and were intended to help change Nintendo's kiddy image. Other non-Nintendo first party games to this end were Silicon Knight's "Eternal Darkness" and Factor 5's "Star Wars; Rogue Squadron 3". Both Silicon Knights and Factor 5 were Nintendo's closest second party (meaning not owned by nintendo, but made games exclusively for them) studios... and both have since gone third party, abandoning their Nintendo 2nd party status...

and both bothered me, especially Silicon Knights, but I figured Nintendo was still doing alright if not great.

Other companies also made deals for exclusive gamecube games... For instance Namco's two great RPGs... "Tales of Symphonia" and "Baiton Kaitos". Of those "Tales of Symphonia," one of my favorite RPGs of all time has been released on the PS2 in Japan already, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if "Baiton Kaitos" ends up on the PS2 as well... meaning that, at least for ToS, the supposed exclusive is not... which brings me back to Capcom...

Of the five games listed above... and I stress... partially funded by Nintendo...
One has stayed exclusive to Nintendo, the worst, Product Number 03.
One has been cancelled, Dead Pheonix.
One has already been released on both the Gamecube and PS2, Viewtiful Joe (which sold MUCH better on gamecube)
The last two haven't been released on either platform yet...
Killer 7 a very cool stylized cell shaded game was quickly announced for a dual launch on both the gamecube and PS2...

that leaves Resident Evil 4... which has been sworn to be exclusive for the two years it has been in development. The creator of the Resident Evil franchise, Shinji Mikami hates developing on the PS2 and when asked by worried fans if there was a chance of RE4 being released on PS2 he said, "The only thing I can tell you now is Resident Evil 4 will definitely release only on GameCube, not on another console, if it happens, I will cut my head off."

Now some Nintendo fans are calling him on it as Capcom just announced that RE4 would be released on PS2. I'm hoping he leaves Capcom and goes to Nintendo as Capcom has been ignoring his input. Anyway the worst thing about this announcement isn't that it will be released on PS2, but rather that it has already been announced. If Capcom had any respect for Nintendo (whose money they took towards developing those games, though I would think they at least paid that back. Hell Nintendo even gave Capcom the chance to develop the first original Gameboy Advance Zelda game, Minnish Cap!), they would have allowed the game to launch in January on Gamecube... then waited until next year's E3 in May and announced that there would be a PS2 release. Nintendo has been hyping Resident Evil 4 as a system seller... and now no PS2 owner will. Even though it is shipping about 10 months later on PS2, they can wait for it. Had Capcom waited until the game had had a few months of exclusive release on the gamecube, then Nintendo would have gotten those sales they were expecting from the RE4 launch. Nintendo just took it up the ___ on that investment.

In the end Nintendo's gamecube generation... is honestly a failure... that is a competitive failure. Granted Nintendo make a great deal on first person games, for good reason. I don't think their has ever been a developer that has produced the same number of games at the such a high average quality. None-the-less they've lost virtually all their 3rd party support... not only do they have NO more 3rd party exclusives announced for the remaining year and a half to two years of the gamecube's life, but a very large number of third parties that do multiplatform releases have given up on the gamecube and only release games on PS2 and XBox now...

As I see it... Nintendo has only one more shot at regaining any market share... and that is with the Nintendo Revolution... the next Nintendo console that as of yet, no one knows anything about. Quite a bit has been leaked about the next Microsoft console, Sony fanboys the world over are snatching up Cell related patents and trying to find out if the mythical PS3 will reach the fabled 1-Teraflop rumors. In my opinion the Revolution will have to be just that in order for Nintendo to continue as a strong presence in the gaming world. Not only in hardware and gameplay, but also in Nintendo's relationship to developers AND to the public. If Nintendo doesn't hit on all cylinders with the Revolution... I expect it will either be the last Nintendo console... or the at least the last mass market one. I can really see Nintendo going the way of the Apple and dropping out of the mainstream and relying solely on first party games for its own machine... which would be annoying as it would require me to buy two seperate consoles... and means I'd have to get either a Sony or Microsoft console... and dang it... Nintendo has been a gaming institution since I was tiny... they are a video game company, that is what they've done VERY WELL for almost 20 years now... and I like it that way. I don't want to buy my game console from a mega corporation that is trying to monopolize my entertainment experience... Sony with every sort of electronic imaginable and Microsoft that wants to make sure Windows is running on all your electronics as well... and their console being the door into the livingroom. I really hope Nintendo pulls through, but they aren't showing any signs that they will right now.

Comments pro or con appreciated... and really I'm not looking for flames!

 

[Readykilowatt]

Wow. That was a very long post. Anyway, I will just say this:

Sony has a huge battle ahead of them with the PSP. The PSP may do well but don't be surprised if it fails. The NDS will succeed primarily because of it's price, the fact that it is backwards compatible with the Gameboy and the games Pokemon Diamond/Pearl.

As for Nintendo with respect to home consoles, yes they are losing marketshare, but this trend may reverse in the future. The important thing is that right now Nintendo is a financially strong and stable company. As a "Nintendo fan" ask yourself these two questions:

(1) Is Nintendo a profitable company?

(2) Is Nintendo supplying me with enough high quality titles to satisfy my gaming needs?

If the answer to question 1 is a "yes" and your answer to question 2 is "yes", then you shouldn't have anything to worry about IMO. BTW, as you can see, I'm not worried about Nintendo at all.

 

[PC-Engine]

I expect Revolution will put Nintendo into a strong position next generation because it will offer something unique like the NDS offers while at the same time also being able to compete on a technical level. Nintendo isn't hyping Revolution now because it's probably too early. The only group that is really hyping Xenon and PS3 specs are tech geeks which make up a small portion of the gaming market. Just look at Xbox for example. It's a geek's wet dream box of this generation, yet it's only doing as well as the little GCN. All three consoles will have exclusives so it will be no different from this generation with regards to people buying one console over another to play a certain game. Also a lot of developers are going multplatform next generation so Revolution will gain some too. The most significant reason why the PS2 is outselling both Xbox and GCN is due to it's game library ie there was a lot of cheap games already available for PS2 when those consoles arrived. If I were to buy a PSTwo tommorow it would be because I could get really great games for $20 or less. The $150 price and small form factor doesn't hurt either. I hardly pay full price ($50) for games nowadays unless it's something on the scale of RE4.

 

[jvd]

Well teh ns5 will have better footing. IT should come out inbetween the other two systems. So it wont be behind in sales at the start which means better 3rd party support. It should be the cheapest once again but still compete in terms of graphics . It should also be the smallest . It will have a very strong set of exclusives too .


So i don't think nintendo has any worries . What they need to do is just grow thier base .

IF they sold 20 million consoles this gen. THey need to sell 30 million consoles next gen. If they keep doing that while keeping thier niche market happy they will be fine . Let sony and ms duke it out. Let nintendo fly under the radar of both companys .

Thats when a break out success happens (like the playstation )

 

[loekf2]

Re: My thoughts on the Nintendo situation. (I am a Nintendo

While I am VERY surprised at how aggressively the PCP has been priced... you have to keep in mind that the $185ish price is without memory card (neccissary to save games) $25, ac adapter (this thing chugs power) $33, and the case (the way it is designed the screen is going to be a scratch magnet which is why I like the DS/SP clamshell design) $19.
SNIP ...

It's not surprising. This is called forward pricing and is the same as what Sony has done with the PS2. Microsoft did the same. They are betting on getting their money back via the games, by doing (my guess) the same business model. That is publishers sell games via Sony, who takes care of production and distribution. Sony charges money for this, which adds to their profit. Probably the $185 is around or 10-20% below cost price.

In years production costs will come down and they will start to make a profit.

It's an interesting topic, because now we see more customized ASICs in the XBOX2 "Xenon" as well (I heard something about certain other parts besides GPU and CPU) I guess Microsoft has more room to drive down the silicon costs.

 

[MaximilianSWE]

My 2 cents...

First... about PSPs screen and scrathes...

"Same technology – different application. As many of you know, Sony will be applying a coating to the screen of the PSP in order to protect from everyday use. They will also be using this technology to protect Blu-Ray discs, and the results are amazing.

One of the major disadvantages to going with a non-clamshell design, is that the screen is open to scratches, scuffs, and marks which can make viewing the LCD difficult if enough damage has been done. To remedy this, Sony is using a new technology to protect the screens from such occurrences. Applied as a single layer, it will prevent scratches. When layered, it will withstand steel wool and permanent marker. In fact, the only damage done to the layered coating was with a knife – which is highly unlikely an occurrence (unless you have homicidal tendencies towards your PSP).

Sony will also use the technology to protect Blu-Ray discs, which is why the current version has disregarded the plastic casing of the original prototype."

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996583
----------

Obviously Sony thought about the gargantuan screen and how exposed it would be to scratches and stuff but it seems that they might have found away around it.


About the comments of Nintendos future...
It all depends on what goals Nintendo have. Are they "happy" by only making a profit, then things will probably not change that much, because it seems whatever they though, they bring in the bucks. Now, If Nintendo wants to in some level, become market leader, like Sony is now in the stationary segment, I don´t believe them to succeed without help.

The N5 (revolution is a long word to write 8) ) will be in some ways different than Xbox2 and PS3. Problem with this is that Nintendo still lacks good 3:rd party support and same seems to be next gen. 3:rd party will first and foremost play it safe, releasing games on PS3 and most certainly on Xbox2 aswell (because these maschines won´t differ as the N5 would).

Now, if 3:rd party would release a game on all plattforms, then the special "abilities" of N5 will probably not be used and thus.. it would be "the same game" as on PS3 adn Xbox2. I honeslty don´t believe that 3:rd parties (maybe the bigger ones would) would make an exclusive N5:game, the marketshare is way to small and cost of developing games will apparently be higher. Besides.. say what tyou want, but NIntendo haven´t really "changed" their image either. Many dev:s are still neglecting it with games because it is "kiddie". This must change with N5....

The only way for NIntendo to have a chance of becoming anything near a market leader is with alliances. Maybe after N5, that Nintendo partner with Matsushita and that Matsushita makes a hardware based on specs/abilities that Nintendo has designed and that through all the companies that resides within Matsushita (Panasonic and such), they could make low-to-high-end products. (Low-end is only a games machine while high end is a games machines with all the multimedia-functions)

Matsushita would help Nintendo market the machines way better and can also better compete against Sony and MS in pricewars.

The other alliance NIntendo must make is to build an online-infrastructure. This could boost NIntendos portable gaming devices. Maybe a partnership with IBM so that they could use their technology and infrastructure to build something like XboxLive BUT also with the possibility for future Gameboys to use it. (So you could have an XboxLive for Game boys, which would be nice).

An Online-service would make sense for Nintendo. They do have some franchaises that fits very well into the online-world and Nintendo could also be using this to download games. Nintendo has a huge back-catalouge of games (from the NES-era upwards). It is obvious that people pays some money to play classic Nintendo games (look at the classic collection for GBA). So instead of buying them physically, people would be able to download the for a fee and play the. This COULD be another revenue stream for them as well. Nintendo has many hardcore-fanboys that easily would get the online-service and pay the whatever fee they want to take. If tis good, then others will follow...

The third important alliance is strenghtening their alliances with smaller dev:cos, maybe buying or making them 2:nd party partners. The role these new dev:s would have would be to make games aimed for the "older" market. This way, Nintendos '"CORE" devs would not have something to do with "those games". In the 80:s, Nintendo formed the "Code of Ethics", meaning that No Nintendo game would gave violence, explicit language etc etc. THis so that the mothers and fathers of the kids in the 80:s would feel safe that their kids play "kids games".

Well, Nintendo must change that. I believe that Nintendo must make an example and show the world that if they want more "mature" games on their console, then they first must make them. So the function of these new devs would soley be to make games for the older market.
The thing about Nintendo is that they are very good to make good gameplay and game mechanics but they suck at telling a good story or have a deep plot (at least that is what I think). So if they could have a game that also have a deep plot or great story + the awesome gameplay and game mechanics Nintendo usually provides.. then it would be a very sweet game (or games)....

So.. to sum things up..
Nintendo must, if they want to become market leader, make strong alliances. If Nintendos is happy with the current state, with "only" making profit (but could be a declining profit depending on PSP success and N5 success) then they can continue as they are doing now.. but they are on the road of becoming more and more of a niche-product (at least with in the stationary biz)

My 2 cents folks....

 

[PC-Engine]

Panasonic made the awesome Q, but for whatever reason it wasn't available in North America or Europe. If they again decide to make a highend Revolution like they did with the Q, they MUST make it available in markets other than Japan. I really wanted a Q, but it just cost too much to import to the US and it only played Japanese GCN games and DVDs. I could've gotten the modded version but it would've been $450!! NO THANKS!

 

[MaximilianSWE]

Panasonic made the awesome Q, but for whatever reason it wasn't available in North America or Europe. If they again decide to make a highend Revolution like they did with the Q, they MUST make it available in markets other than Japan. I really wanted a Q, but it just cost too much to import to the US and it only played Japanese GCN games and DVDs. I could've gotten the modded version but it would've been $450!! NO THANKS!

Yeah... it was a pretty sad decision of not releasing it in the west. Don´t know what kind of impact it would have had though... maybe could have fixed the NGC numbers a bit... we will never know I guess...

 

[Brimstone]

Re: My thoughts on the Nintendo situation. (I am a Nintendo

It's an interesting topic, because now we see more customized ASICs in the XBOX2 "Xenon" as well (I heard something about certain other parts besides GPU and CPU) I guess Microsoft has more room to drive down the silicon costs.

A third chip for X-Box2? Is that what you heard? Not the SIS chip set?



Nintendo makes great games today and will do so in the future, but they've really burned a lot of bridges with 3rd parties over the years. Has any 3rd party come out ahead long term after working closely with Nintendo? Left Field, Silicon Knights, Rare, and Capcom are examples of negative consequences in one or another.

I'm not sure what's up with Factor5.

 

[Evil_Cloud]

Re: My thoughts on the Nintendo situation. (I am a Nintendo

It's an interesting topic, because now we see more customized ASICs in the XBOX2 "Xenon" as well (I heard something about certain other parts besides GPU and CPU) I guess Microsoft has more room to drive down the silicon costs.

A third chip for X-Box2? Is that what you heard? Not the SIS chip set?



Nintendo makes great games today and will do so in the future, but they've really burned a lot of bridges with 3rd parties over the years. Has any 3rd party come out ahead long term after working closely with Nintendo? Left Field, Silicon Knights, Rare, and Capcom are examples of negative consequences in one or another.

I'm not sure what's up with Factor5.

Namco made Donkey Konga and Starfox, Kuju is making Advance Wars: Under Fire, Capcom is making The Legend of Zelda: The Minishing Cap, Nintendo made Metal Gear Solid: TT with Konami, F-Zero GX was made together with Amusement Vision & Sega,... I am sure there are more, but they are more active than ever with 3rd party developers. :?

Nintendo still has the support of major players like EA, Activision, Namco, Capcom, Sega, Konami,...

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Nintendo is in the process of retreating into a niche position in the console space. They've been ousold by Xbox 2:1 amongst casual gamers in the US/EU markets IMO and they have almost no momentum going into the holidays. They MIGHT be making money on the Cube (I think mostly just on GBA right now), but the Gamecube is mostly just a PR device to keep Nintendo's name out there so they can sell a lot of handhelds IMO.

The problem with this is that Nintendo is on the cusp of losing EA and other big third parties. Once this happens, they will completely lose the casual gamer market. They will be down to just hardcore Nintendo fans. They could continue on like this, but it will be more difficult.

The other problem Nintendo has is that Sony is making better 1st party games than they are now.

 

[Evil_Cloud]

Nintendo is in the process of retreating into a niche position in the console space. They've been ousold by Xbox 2:1 amongst casual gamers in the US/EU markets IMO and they have almost no momentum going into the holidays. They MIGHT be making money on the Cube (I think mostly just on GBA right now), but the Gamecube is mostly just a PR device to keep Nintendo's name out there so they can sell a lot of handhelds IMO.

Nintendo is still on par with Xbox with worldwide shipments, and they make a large profit where Microsoft is closing in on a 3 billion dollar cost... Nintendo is still selling LOADS more software titles than Microsoft does. Nintendo has a massive warchest of 5 billion dollar...

The problem with this is that Nintendo is on the cusp of losing EA and other big third parties. Once this happens, they will completely lose the casual gamer market. They will be down to just hardcore Nintendo fans. They could continue on like this, but it will be more difficult.

How strange, Nintendo still has the support of EA, Ubisoft, Activision, Sega, and others. And how would you know? Do you work at one of these companies?

The other problem Nintendo has is that Sony is making better 1st party games than they are now.

Like Primal, Wipeout Fusion, Ghost Hunter, The Getaway 'better'?

Titles like Ratchet & Clank, Socom,... aren't 1st but 2nd party btw, so there aren't much titles left.

 

[wco81]

How much is the memory card for the NDS? Or does it come bundled at that $150 price?

The base PSP comes with charger so you don't have to buy the value pack (we don't even know if it will be offered over here).

You can get larger Duo cards for the price Sony charges for their 32 MB card. I don't think Sony minds if people do that because they still make money and people buying larger-capacity MS Duo cards will probably use it on other Sony products like their T1 cameras.

I think a lot of people may buy the PSP for the gadget value. They may not be gamers so actually this may not be so great for Sony. They may just get a couple of games every year.

As for Nintendo's 3rd-party support, I bet they get more support in Japan than the Xbox does.

 

[PC-Engine]

NDS like all the other GB variants do not use memory cards for saving.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I think there are a lot of Nintendo fans in denial here.

GT series, R&C series, J&D series, SOCOM series, Dark Cloud and ICO are just better games than the latest DK, Mario, Metroid and Zelda. Sony owns those IPs and they will continue to invest in them. Mario just doesn't have the pull he had 5 years ago with casual gamers.

Nintendo has only sold about 11 million units outside Japan, mostly to hardcore Nintendo fans. MS has sold about 16 million units outside Japan to a far broader demographic IMO.

It's all just opinion (duh), but Nintendo is fading with casual gamers and big third party devs in the console market.

 

[wco81]

NDS like all the other GB variants do not use memory cards for saving.

So they have a limited amount of NVRAM on it?

Would the NDS version of Madden be able to save a franchise mode on it (assuming the NDS version has franchise mode)?

It does such to have to pay extra for a MS Duo card. But you can load it with MP3s and other media to use the PSP for other things in addition.

Sony still makes some of the most appealing cameras, like the T1 and now the T3. So that takes some of the bite out of having to buy the Duo cards.

 

[Phil]

While I am VERY surprised at how aggressively the PCP has been priced... you have to keep in mind that the $185ish price is without memory card (neccissary to save games) $25, ac adapter (this thing chugs power) $33, and the case (the way it is designed the screen is going to be a scratch magnet which is why I like the DS/SP clamshell design) $19. So realistically if you want a PSP you are going to have to buy the value pack, which clocks in at $234ish at current exchange rates and comes with everything above + an external battery pack. Following Nintendo's lead and pricing it slightly higher in the US, I expect the value pack to clock in at $250 here, making it a cool $100 more than the DS. None-the-less I think Nintendo should play it safe and drop the price of the DS $25 and the SP by $12.50 (at least!) to try and fight off the monolithic Sony marketing machine.

1.)
The sub $200 basic set includes the ac adapter. You're right though that it doesn't include a memorystick, but these can be bought easily from 3rd parties which wouldn't increase the price significantly.

2.)
Having a value-pack of course is a good strategy by Sony - including nice little 'extras' that aren't necessary needed, but of great value. In short, people comparing the devices are unlikely to compare a $150 DS with the value pack PSP. For most of them, it will be $150 DS going against a sub $200 PSP - both that include the absolutely minimum to play games (sans memorystick on PSP). The well informed buyer will take the memorystick into account though - he will also know though that the price of a normal memorystick won't add to the cost significantly.

I have a lot of confidence in Nintendo handheld... and think that Sony may have made a strategic error with the PSP. I think it will be up against the DS for, maybe 2.5-3 years... and then Nintendo will release a true next generation gameboy that will have significantly higher specs... which would destroy Sony's hopes of giving the PSP a 10 year lifespan. So I think Nintendo will do fine in the handheld market. I also feel that having handheld games with console production budgets, console game retail prices (at $50 for PSP versus $30-40 for DS), and require console-like attention spans should better be done on... consoles.

I believe Sony has this planned out extremely nicely. Let me illustrate why:

the gameboy market

The majority of the gameboy market (Including GBC, GBA, GBSP) are younger people. Kids and young teenagers in other words, probably mostly aged around 15 and below. It is also true though that the GameBoy SP has attracted some of the older players as well - but compared to the younger market, that share is still very unconsiderable in terms of numbers.
Unfortunately I don't have any numbers present at this time, so if anyone feels otherwise, please correct me with some numbers.

the PSP market

The PSP market is quite obviously not targeting the Gameboy market directly - in fact, Sony is targeting the console buyers out there. Research and studies by Sony have shown that around 70% of the PlayStation market is made up of older teenagers up until about 39 year-olds. This is the core market PSP is targeting - this is easily seen by the PSPs design, the price and the functions that it includes. These are the people that walk around with iPods nowdays. They're also the market with an income, that obviously can enjoy to afford a handheld priced around the $200 mark. For what the PSP is offering, it could easily be sold more expensive - in fact, I think it is quite evident that everyone is quite suprised by the very competitive pricing. The price could have another objective...:

By pricing the basic PSP package at $50 dollars more, they're directly targeting their core audience (PlayStation supporters) - but on the other hand, they're also targeting the older Gameboy crowd, though more or less indirect. Imagine the following scenario:

The PSP launches and among its first buyers is the target audience of older teenagers up to young adults. Sooner or later PSP is bound to reach massmarket appeal. The design is stylish, the graphics are beyond anything in the handheld market and the pricing just right. Up to this point, I am pretty sure the younger crowd wouldn't care much about the PSP - afterall, they're all enjoying the DS at this stage. As soon as PSP reaches that massmarket appeal and becomes a new hip product, the younger audience will follow eventuelly. And by younger audience I'm not refering to little Joe that is 5 years old - I'm more talking about the 12 to 15 year olds that will want 'a cool gadget'. By pricing the PSP at sub $200, it's minimally more expensive than a DS and it will make it easier for the those younger buyers to get one. This is no different than the 12 year olds that buy their first hifi systems. I think at this stage, the DS will be very quickly 'out'. On the other hand though, I think the DS will sell regardless to its core audience because that market is younger and to those, the PSP wouldn't be suited. The way things will go though, I predict that Nintendo will loose a bit of its marketshare (how much is difficult to predict without actual GB market studies numbers), but that the whole handheld market will expand rapidly as the PSP gets bought by many console users that didn't buy into that market due to lack of a mature handheld yet.

So I think there is room for both PSP and DS, though I do think that the DS will maintain the mainstream advantage with its much lower price (when you consider the actual price of owning a PSP).

1.)
which is a false assumption because the basic price of a PSP which includes the minimum to use the hardware is minimally more expensive (~$50 to $70), yet at the same time the handheld is clearly a generation ahead. -> You pay more to get more.

2.)
I agree that there is room for both PSP and DS, though that Nintendo's market will be left behind as it is today with consoles. While Nintendo will continue to target their younger market with their DS, the PSP will expand the handheld market as more and more adults and PlayStation buyers buy into the PSP product. These people bought a PS2 for its content and the PSP will only build up on that. Same name brand, same target audience, similar software. The market will expand and Nintendo will sooner or later find themselves left with the kiddy and hardcore Nintendo market as it is with the GameCube. That doesn't need to be a bad thing, but it certainly won't help them stay competitive in the long run because their market is bound to disappear if they let the PSP get a strong name. After all, who sais the PSP is the only handheld Sony has planned for the next few years? I pretty much expect them to follow suit with a more cheaper version aimed at the even younger audience once and if PSP becomes a hip-product. Once that happens, Sony will have the name and the market.



As for your idea on that Nintendo may come with a GameBoy 2 within the next 2 to 3 years... Well, I quite believe that it will be already too late by then. We live in the present and as such, we're about to vitness two handhelds being launched side by side - one being a nice improvement, the other being quite easily a generation ahead. Waiting 2 to 3 years and the PSP will have a lot of mindshare among its buyers and I quite doubt Nintendo could pull off something better within the 3 years after the PSP launch. At best similar - and even if its better, there's still the image and the content that will hold them back. Remember, the target audience of the PSP is not Nintendo's younger market - it's the PlayStation supporters. The people that didn't buy a GameCube this generation, a N64 last generation. If Nintendo wants to succeed, they most definately have to work on their image and their support as well as mature software lineup. Without that, launching a GameBoy 2 with superiour specs will be a waste of effort, money and time.

 

[cthellis42]

<laughs> Didn't even notice this!

While I am VERY surprised at how aggressively the PCP has been priced...

Even Sony can't get away with selling illegal hallucinogens--no matter how well-priced.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled post-that-I-will-join-in-earnest-at-some-point-later-when-I've-had-a-chance-to-process-it-all.

 

[Goldni]

The PSP screen WILL scratch. I've heard that 'coating' BS before with other products. Throw that bad boy in a pocket with some good ole keys, change and other pocket goodies and over a short time I'll guarantee you it'll start showing some scratches. I'll be in line with everyone else getting a PSP next year but aside from DC to PS2 level graphics that I can play on the go I'm very sceptical about the viable selling points of the machine. I just have'nt seen anything amazingly groundbreaking that makes me want to rush out and get one. It's an amazing piece of tech but the DS is far more innovative afa breaking new ground with new gameplay experiences. If NOA can really show and market this..it won't even be close afa as sales.

 

[wco81]

Nobody is going to carry the PSP in their pockets. The thing is like 5 inches long.

I think the hard coating thing is for real but I don't think the PSP uses it.

I can see all these iPod skins makers coming out with stuff for the PSP. Probably some kind of mylar sheath for the screen.