MY ARGUMENT: The real battle is between PS3 and 360, Wii is not included

[Magnum PI]

Wii will continue to get cheap ports.

If you look at the known titles for the Wii, few of them are ports, and even fewer can qualify as "cheap" ports.

Obviously developping low-tech titles for nintendo DS requires a modest budget, there is an installed base, so original titles are developped for nintendo DS.

Similarly, regardless of PS3 and Xbox success, as long as the installed base can justify the investment, there will be games for the Wii.

And with any doubt, developping a title from scratch for Wii will cost much less than its equivalent on PS3 or xbox, XNA or not, PS2 or not. And publisher could be able to cope with an inferior installed base for original games.

 

[patsu]

Yap ! That's what I meant. Don't worry about Wii. Nintendo should be fine (this gen at least).

Thanks! Believe me you guys are lucky you have me here now when i'm still more or less neutral... One day i'll be working in marketing for one of these companies and you'll get PR talk in favour of whatever company it is on here! kidding...

No kidding... ;-) so when are you graduating ? Just so we can prepare ourselves psychologically, ya know.

If you're looking for internship... can you apply to Sony and check if the entire marketing department has gone on leave since early this year ? (Ok, may be I should shut up now. Actually I just came back from Target and other stores to see if I can get lucky with a PS3). Damn malls are still flooded with people.

EDIT:
Forgot to sign off in this thread...

OOXXOXOX
Martha

 

[Dave]

Unfortunately its not as simple as that. They can co-exist but not in the same sense as other products like TVs or mp3 players etc. There are 2 main participators, that produce differentiated products, which products involve other industries in them which are fragmented and varied.
The console gaming industry specifically also faces continuous increase in development costs and on top of that there are also the hardware costs.

Profitability is taking shrinking pressures especially of the main participators like Sony and MS who have to update all sorts of things like hardware, libraries, and other features every 5 years. They basically start all over from the beginning. A single mistake may prove fatal for the future of their product. And usually the more succesful they are with the current product the better the chances for the future of not going under the carpet.

So every time they release the next product the competition is extremely fierce trying to regenerate sales and gain as much market share as possible to ensure their security in an otherwise complicated industry.

Developers may have the ability to move from one support to the other, but the hardware producers cant get them back once they lose them. They move on a very thin line.

So in case Sony faces the challenges lets say MS faced with the XBOX someone may think no problem Sony will be ok. But thats a false observation. There are more chances they will go downhill in the future. Its as false as someone thinking low sales for Nintendo mean it failed.

So if you ask me who lost in the previous gen, well, the loser is Sega with the DC. It started great, it had superb games but died.

Nintendo and XBOX are either winners either losers according to how you see things. If you judge the XBOX as a whole it did great. MS managed to build a strong brand name due to their strong financial power. They steadilly also built a very interesting library of games which are bound for the 360 and previous owners will seek for them. No one else would have been able to enter the market and manage to persistently keep alive their product until it turned into a beast.

On the other hand if it wasnt for MS ability to fund a non-profitable, initially bad performing product it would have sunk.

Nintendo did the "worst" of all the three. Well, kind of. They managed to make profit despite that they sold even less than MS. And they are lucky that they are selling a product thats not competing the big two. If they were trying to compete them directly, despite last years profit, their performance in last gen simply didnt build the right conditions.

The only clear winner last gen was Sony. They succedded with the PS2 in both relative and absolute numbers like profit, market share and user base, they built the right conditions to make PS3 succesful. Now if they manage to exploit them well enough to ensure their current and future security is left to be seen.

Btw: by the time I am writing this post I am dizzy and lack concentration. So if I dont make sense or something seems strange in my post forgive me

I have to say that I fail to see how this impacts the success of the current generation of products, both having a good install base.

-Dave

 

[jamesnmandy]

i agree with the OP in general, the Wii is in a class of it's own, never meant to be a contender in the HiDef console market of course

the Wii does not interest me, but i think my kids will enjoy it, the natural tendency to move the controller about while playing now actually makes things happen....

but i also dont see a long life in the Wii.....the Wii Remote will be short lived IMO, and the huge puch of HDTV's into the home will make the graphics difference between the Wii and 360/PS3 class machines more apparent , people who own a Wii and have COD3 will play it at home, then go to play it at a friends place who is playing the same game in 1080i with much better visuals and say, wow, COD3 isn't as enjoyable on my Wii.......why is that?

things will change over time, slowly, but i predict Nintendo will sell out or be "absorbed" by the bigger players unless they can build a secret HiDef gaming machine and blow the others out of the water, but this likely wont happen, likely will be either M$ or Sony buying them to get the partnerships in game exclusives that come with it

 

[Mythos]

i agree with the OP in general, the Wii is in a class of it's own, never meant to be a contender in the HiDef console market of course

the Wii does not interest me, but i think my kids will enjoy it, the natural tendency to move the controller about while playing now actually makes things happen....

but i also dont see a long life in the Wii.....the Wii Remote will be short lived IMO, and the huge puch of HDTV's into the home will make the graphics difference between the Wii and 360/PS3 class machines more apparent , people who own a Wii and have COD3 will play it at home, then go to play it at a friends place who is playing the same game in 1080i with much better visuals and say, wow, COD3 isn't as enjoyable on my Wii.......why is that?

things will change over time, slowly, but i predict Nintendo will sell out or be "absorbed" by the bigger players unless they can build a secret HiDef gaming machine and blow the others out of the water, but this likely wont happen, likely will be either M$ or Sony buying them to get the partnerships in game exclusives that come with it

I think people are to eager to write off the Wii. If nintendo can find itz groove like the DS has done for them. I can see them taking off and the Wii could be viewed as the ipod of videogames. Thus taking a chunk of the mainstream family/kid market. [Some of the perspective I think for writing off the Wii is from a hardcore perspective and that IMO is a narrow view towards the totality of the videogames market]

 

[Anvil]

Interesting thing I saw this morning while out shopping was watching an entire shipment of 10 Wii's fly off the shelf in about a half hour while the shipment of 2 PS3's just sat there. People are buying into the hype of the Wii and they are selling.

 

[Magnum PI]

the Wii Remote will be short lived IMO

What makes you think that ?

things will change over time, slowly, but i predict Nintendo will sell out or be "absorbed" by the bigger players unless they can build a secret HiDef gaming machine and blow the others out of the water, but this likely wont happen, likely will be either M$ or Sony buying them to get the partnerships in game exclusives that come with it

What makes you think that nintendo would be unable to release an hidef gaming machine after the Wii ? If the Wii happens to be a failure, nothing would prevent Nintendo to shorten the Wii lifecycle, like Microsoft did with the Xbox. With the massive cash reserves they have they could take some blows for sure.

Your predictions would more interesting if they were backed with argumentation.

 

[quest55720]

i agree with the OP in general, the Wii is in a class of it's own, never meant to be a contender in the HiDef console market of course

the Wii does not interest me, but i think my kids will enjoy it, the natural tendency to move the controller about while playing now actually makes things happen....

but i also dont see a long life in the Wii.....the Wii Remote will be short lived IMO, and the huge puch of HDTV's into the home will make the graphics difference between the Wii and 360/PS3 class machines more apparent , people who own a Wii and have COD3 will play it at home, then go to play it at a friends place who is playing the same game in 1080i with much better visuals and say, wow, COD3 isn't as enjoyable on my Wii.......why is that?

things will change over time, slowly, but i predict Nintendo will sell out or be "absorbed" by the bigger players unless they can build a secret HiDef gaming machine and blow the others out of the water, but this likely wont happen, likely will be either M$ or Sony buying them to get the partnerships in game exclusives that come with it

How many families have the money to have more than 1 HD TV? I can game on the main HDtv but if someone else wants to watch something off the tivo or a movie then I get moved to the second TV which right now is not a HD-TV. Most people I know put the kids consoles on the second or 3rd TV in the house. I think no HD will be no big deal for most people as they don't want the kids toys hooked up to thier expensive HDtv. I think the Wii is perfect for most familys put the wii in the kids play room and let them have fun. If the Wii was targetted at high tech junkies or geeks then yes I could see no hd being a huge deal. In 4-5 years when the Wii2 comes out it will be in HD as more people will have secondary HD-tvs in the house. I also can see nintendo being able to rapidly drop the price when needed. Lets not forget all it will take is a few games like nintendogs and brain training that really capture the casual gaming market. I also think nintendo is being smart to let sony and MS bleed each other dry while they continue to profit. If one of them gets knocked off or weakend by the bloody battle they will be able suck up market share in the future.

 

[jamesnmandy]

What makes you think that ?



What makes you think that nintendo would be unable to release an hidef gaming machine after the Wii ? If the Wii happens to be a failure, nothing would prevent Nintendo to shorten the Wii lifecycle, like Microsoft did with the Xbox. With the massive cash reserves they have they could take some blows for sure.

people, in the USA specifically, are lazier now than ever, after a while people will grow tired of the novelty of moving around to play video games and will want to "just play the game" instead of getting a workout to play, it's just the way it goes here, we want to have fun and have things without doing anything, the part that requires physical movement other than finger twitching will get old, trust me, it will happen, the DS did not have that aspect, the jump around to play a video game aspect, so it is not a fair comparison, and personally, the PSP is more interesting to me than the DS

i never said Nintendo couldn't do a HiDef system, but i dont think they will, i think if they were going to it would have been now, i think they were trying in a parallel project and it was going to be too difficult/expensive to bring to market so they abandoned it and for PR reasons decided to say things like "we aren't trying to compete with the PS3 and 360", so they wouldn't look so foolish for releasing 2001 graphics on a 2006 console, but look, we have.......the Wii Remote.....cool huh !?

also i am sure the tried and true game developers in their corner were probably not wanting to cooperate, telling Nintendo it was too time consuming and costly to rewrite all those games to run 720p or 1080i resolution on an entirely new system.....hey, we got an idea.....lets do the retro thing.....take the Gamecube, make it what we really wanted it to be years ago, add a "revolutionary" motion sensitive controller, give it an "Ipod'ish" look and market to people who have been buying all these old Nintendo, N64, Super Nintendo and Genesis games over the years, and make them want to buy them all over again.....yeah, no R&D costs for the game devs, no risk, just put the same old games up for sale again to be downloaded on the Wii.......little cost, little risk, pure profit for all

personally, i have like zero interest in playing the old classics, i thought i did, and then i tried downloading a few of the old games over XBL, and even upscaled on my HDTV through the 360, the games still look like crap, play like crap, sound like crap, etc.......used to be an avid Grand Turismo fan as well, tried hooking up the PS1 to my TV and guess what, i nearly puked thinking the whole time.....i can't believe i actually used to enjoy looking at this crap

while many of you guys may try to take the "graphics isn't everything" road, i am here to tell you, that i have a 360, it lets me do so many things the Wii cannot allow me to do, it allows me to play games in HD glory and still have good gameplay, there's nothing wrong with the best graphics in town as long as the gameplay is up to task, and it is for me with the few games i have bought, the graphics could be awesome, but if the gameplay wasn't there, the game gets gone, this happened with MotoGP 06, too difficult, too hard to play and enjoy, looking good wasn't enough, so it's not like i base all my opinion on graphics, but if i and the rest of the world with HDTV's can have good games and good graphics too, dont expect us to lower our standards to 2001 graphics in order to jive around with a Wiimote in 480p glory.........

 

[dobwal]

Nintendo going where?

As long as Nintendo has a large presence in the handheld market they can maintain one in the console market.

It hasn't been proven that mainstream gamers require HD gaming. The fact that the PS2 dominated consoles capable of a greater level of graphics show it takes more than eye candy to dominate the console market.

Im wondering why anyone would predict a demise of a company who posted 120 million profit last quarter and averaged well over 500 million (US dollars) a year in profit for the last 5 years despite commanding less than 20% percent of the console market.

Nintendo's strategy has not lead to marketshare leader in the console market but what it has done is allowed Nintendo to prosper under less than ideal circumstances in terms of units moved.

 

[jamesnmandy]

As long as Nintendo has a large presence in the handheld market they can maintain one in the console market.

It hasn't been proven that mainstream gamers require HD gaming. The fact that the PS2 dominated consoles capable of a greater level of graphics show it takes more than eye candy to dominate the console market.

Im wondering why anyone would predict a demise of a company who posted 120 million profit last quarter and averaged well over 500 million (US dollars) a year in profit for the last 5 years despite commanding less than 20% percent of the console market.

Nintendo's strategy has not lead to marketshare leader in the console market but what it has done is allowed Nintendo to prosper under less than ideal circumstances in terms of units moved.

agreed, from a profit standpoint they have done really well, but how long will the general public support a company that seems to not have what it takes to stay on top.....i mean, so many people i have spoken to have seen what the 360 can do and loved it, and what the PS3 can do and loved it, and expected the "newest thing" from Nintendo to keep pace, and it doesn't....

it's all about pundit perception, in the HD age, people are buying HDTV's to get better visuals, they expect better visuals, and to alot of the general public, better visuals go a long way, regardless of what they leave behind, but i feel the 360 has bridged that gap to make better looking good gameplay real and now

 

[dobwal]

it's my opinions, that's all, it's what i see and think about the situation

Everybody here has an opinion. But everybody's opinion here is subject to debate and just because you have an opinion doesn't make your opinion relevant. Opinions not based on fact, logical rationale or just on based on personal experience (when trying to make a broad generalization) doesn't cut it in here.

Everyone wants you to share your opinion:

"Your predictions would more interesting if they were backed with argumentation."

"What makes you think that ?"

"What makes you think that nintendo would be unable to release an hidef gaming machine after the Wii ?"

They just want you to back it up with some logical arguments.

 

[jamesnmandy]

Everybody here has an opinion. But everybody's opinion here is subject to debate and just because you have an opinion doesn't make your opinion relevant. Opinions not based on fact, logical rationale or just on based on personal experience (when trying to make a broad generalization) doesn't cut it in here.

Everyone wants you to share your opinion:

"Your predictions would more interesting if they were backed with argumentation."

"What makes you think that ?"

"What makes you think that nintendo would be unable to release an hidef gaming machine after the Wii ?"

They just want you to back it up with some logical arguments.

go back and read my posts, i explained why i think what i think, even though i dont owe anybody an explanation

if these forums were filled with nothing but facts upon facts, it would be a very boring place indeed, nothing wrong with some pure opinionated comments in the mix, who knows, one guys opinion might be spot on when you look back

one can not always present facts to support a "feeling" or opinion on a subject, sometimes it's just a feeling or an impression left, or a personal experience, but something as subjective as ones personal taste in consoles or such cannot always be "validated" with hard and true facts

 

[scooby_dooby]

As long as Nintendo has a large presence in the handheld market they can maintain one in the console market.

It hasn't been proven that mainstream gamers require HD gaming. The fact that the PS2 dominated consoles capable of a greater level of graphics show it takes more than eye candy to dominate the console market.

Im wondering why anyone would predict a demise of a company who posted 120 million profit last quarter and averaged well over 500 million (US dollars) a year in profit for the last 5 years despite commanding less than 20% percent of the console market.

Nintendo's strategy has not lead to marketshare leader in the console market but what it has done is allowed Nintendo to prosper under less than ideal circumstances in terms of units moved.

As far as I'm concerned using a handheld to prove GFX don't matter compared to a home console is fundamentally flawed.

The display devices are completely different, on a handheld the screen is tiny so of course GFX will be less important, when you're viewing stuff on a 40"+ HDTV it's a completely different story.

The PS2 is also a pretty poor example, because not only was it in the market earlier, with a much larger game library, and huge fanbase, but XBOX still managed to gain 22million based somewhat on it's graphical superiority, which was not nearly as signfigant as the gap between Wii and 360/PS3.

I don't think GFX are the end all be all, but the huge gulf between Wii and the competitors might be it's achille's heel. Either that or it really will open up a whole new demographic of gamers.

 

[Magnum PI]

wtf, my predictions would be more interesting if they were backed by argumentation?

Anyway, predictions or not, we are here to discuss, and you can't discuss an opinion.
There is not much point

people, in the USA specifically, are lazier now than ever, after a while people will grow tired of the novelty of moving around to play video games and will want to "just play the game" instead of getting a workout to play

Some wii owners sid in this forum that you don't have do make big movements to play with the wii-mote, little movements work the same.

And of current games, not so much games seem to suggest you need to move around to play it, i only remember wii-sports. Party games could be the kind of games that make you move around too.

i never said Nintendo couldn't do a HiDef system, but i dont think they will, i think if they were going to it would have been now,

They didn't release an hidef system yet, so they will never will ?

i think they were trying in a parallel project and it was going to be too difficult/expensive to bring to market so they abandoned it

What makes you think so ?
Do you have any information about this supposed parallel project ?

dont expect us to lower our standards to 2001 graphics in order to jive around with a Wiimote in 480p glory.........

Us ? You mean james and mandy ?

According to lastest NPD data, the majority of software are sold for the PS2, so the standard for the majority would be more like 1999 graphics.

 

[dobwal]

As far as I'm concerned using a handheld to prove GFX don't matter compared to a home console is fundamentally flawed..

I never made such a point.

The PS2 is also a pretty poor example, because not only was it in the market earlier, with a much larger game library, and huge fanbase, but XBOX still managed to gain 22million based somewhat on it's graphical superiority, which was not nearly as signfigant as the gap between Wii and 360/PS3.

The PS2 wasn't well established no more than the 360 is now. How many PS2 were moved during those 22 million of the xbox, 80-85 million? If the wii is able to move 4 million by 2006 it will have gained 40% of what the 360 sold in 13 months in a matter of 6 weeks. If that happens I think that proof enough that Gfx aren't the primary concern of console gamers.

 

[scooby_dooby]

If that happens I think that proof enough that Gfx aren't the primary concern of console gamers.

Or at least a small portion of them...

 

[assen]

And with any doubt, developping a title from scratch for Wii will cost much less than its equivalent on PS3 or xbox, XNA or not, PS2 or not. And publisher could be able to cope with an inferior installed base for original games.

Exactly this "without any doubt" is what I'm arguing against. Developing a title from scratch for Wii and for 360, if the title is held by Wii standards, should cost about the same. Add to that the 360 experience/tools/engines most third-party developers will have in-house, one could even argue that the Wii will be at a disadvantage.

 

[ET]

Exactly this "without any doubt" is what I'm arguing against. Developing a title from scratch for Wii and for 360, if the title is held by Wii standards, should cost about the same.

What do you base this on? I tend to agree with the view that Wii development should be less costly, since it would require less artist work (art being a major money sink in game development). I do agree that Magnum PI went a little overboard in stating the case.

I don't want to get into all agruments here (though I have thoughts about them). So just a few points.

I'm a PC gamer, and have never been interested much in consoles, but I'll likely get a Wii. My girlfriend is not much of a gamer, but she does play StepMania, and she thought Frogger 2 (a 6 year old game) is cute. The Wii's combination of physical gameplay and cartoonish games will probably appeal to her. I think that Nintendo does have a chance to sell to a demographic that doesn't currently buy consoles. My guess is also that most people who've bought the Wii until now are console gamers. Only crazy console buyers will stand in line on the first day.

Whether the Wii will succeed in the long term is a good question, but I don't think that it's as easy to predict as people here on either side seem to think. I'm sure that most people here would have branded The Sims as an idiotic waste of time with bad graphics that's likely to fail. Probably nobody here thinks that Brain Age is worth playing. So just think, if you think that way, what do you really know about what people want to play? (And if you did think that Sims and Brain Age are the next sure seller, then I'd be interested to hear your opinion of the Wii.)

 

[quest55720]

I have been reading some Wii owners stories about thanksgiving. I guess they could be lying but a lot of people were telling the same story about the Wii sports sucking in the non gamers. People who either disliked games or intimidated by complex controllers were really getting in to the Wii sports game especially bowling. Stories of Wii onwers playing games with thier parents and even grandparents for the first time ever. Wives and girlfriends really getting into the games and making a Mii. If these stories are the norm then nintendo may of really struck gold like they did with the DS.