MY ARGUMENT: The real battle is between PS3 and 360, Wii is not included

[SOcean2forever]

Honestly, in terms of sales alone Wii will, no, I mean shall skyrocket. But its unfair to compare this machine to our HD monsters, PS3 and 360. Wii is in its own league, a focus on interactivity instead of realism.

In fact, Wii has captured a certain aspect of interest in interactivity that its bound to succeed in that endeavour, while the PS3 and 360 are still fighting for a space: the space of High-Definition graphics.

In fact, in such conditions, it is logical to say that Wii shouldn't even be accounted for as a victor or a loser, simply because it belongs in its category. The real bruises will erupt between PS3 and 360 because they give consumers a choice and fighting for the title of "if I want graphics outright, which is my better choice?" It's a sad truth, but Wii will eat both Microsoft and Sony's marketshare while consumers ultimately decide what is the better choice and in the end the battle between the HD monsters will be decided by two things:

1. Which next-gen media format will be accepted (Hell even if Sony doesn't get its exclusives, but if Blu-ray becomes a standard, PS3 will still skyrocket into success, mainly from HDtv owner purchases)
2. Game exclusivity - Exclusives buy the hearts of gamers...that's a fact. Whether previous PS2 developers can still muster the effort to continue the tradition to the PS3 or jump ship (which will be sad because CELL will never reach its full potential), the tides of victory will be determined between the two.

And you know what's funny? Last year it was Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo. This year it looks like Nintendo will be taking a backseat while the Xbox360 and PS3 go head to head, and one must therefore be crushed by the other, I don't see a point of agreement or evenly shared market.

In the end, as I have been an avid fan of the Playstation franchise for the last 7 years, naturally I would want PS3 to win, so I can finally buy a PS3 without worrying that it becomes a paperweight. But only time will tell and I guess I'll probably be buying my first Xbox purchase in a couple of years when the victor is decided. And no, Wii has not piqued my interest yet...

 

[winstonsmith1978]

Hey, slow down buddy, I think you need to lay off the caffeine for a bit.

Actually, I think you’re completely wrong with your predictions. I don’t think any company will “crush” the competition and what’s really funny, is that the market might actually be big enough for everyone to “win.” All they have to do is make more money than what they spend.

This generation is obviously going to be a much more evenly distributed market.

 

[fulcizombie]

I've been into gaming for over 20 years and i have watched every generation starting with extreme optimism for nintendo,just for different reasons everytime.It seems that nintendo is always bound to dominate and the great sales each new nintendo console achieves in its first 2 months(usually holiday months) enforce this optimism.I still remember that same thing for the GC.I know that some people will deny that NOW but the GC was bound to "crush" the xbox and give the ps2 a run for its money.The reasons then were that nintendo had gone away from cartridges and had fixed its relationship with 3rd parties.When things like the squaresoft support and the Capcom exclusives(RE and more) were announced,people were declaring nintendo the winner.We all know how that went down.Then a few months after launch the GC was going to "crush" the xbox(beating the ps2 was abandoned quickly) because of the "Big 3"(mario sunshine,Starfox adventures,Metroid Prime).I still remember the shock and awe when the September 2002(the month of mario sunshine's release) NPD came out or when the December 2002 NPD came out.

I could go even back to the n64 launch days when the internet didn't exist but still the n64 was the most hyped console EVER.

Anyway i really doubt that the Wii will be succesfull anywhere but Japan and i would wait until Q4 of 2007 before declaring Wii the big winner.

 

[London Geezer]

I've been into gaming for over 20 years and i have watched every generation starting with extreme optimism for nintendo,just for different reasons everytime.It seems that nintendo is always bound to dominate and the great sales each new nintendo console achieves in its first 2 months(usually holiday months) enforce this optimism.I still remember that same thing for the GC.I know that some people will deny that NOW but the GC was bound to "crush" the xbox and give the ps2 a run for its money.The reasons then were that nintendo had gone away from cartridges and had fixed its relationship with 3rd parties.When things like the squaresoft support and the Capcom exclusives(RE and more) were announced,people were declaring nintendo the winner.We all know how that went down.Then a few months after launch the GC was going to "crush" the xbox(beating the ps2 was abandoned quickly) because of the "Big 3"(mario sunshine,Starfox adventures,Metroid Prime).I still remember the shock and awe when the September 2002(the month of mario sunshine's release) NPD came out or when the December 2002 NPD came out.

I could go even back to the n64 launch days when the internet didn't exist but still the n64 was the most hyped console EVER.

Anyway i really doubt that the Wii will be succesfull anywhere but Japan and i would wait until Q4 of 2007 before declaring Wii the big winner.

Amazingly, i think i kind of agree with you. The hype the N64 received was absolutely immense, at least in Italy (i was there at the time). N64 received much more hype than Saturn and PS1 simply because "it was 64 bit with a 100Mhz processor"... Then PS1 started to pull forward after a bit, but only after certain games came out, well into the platfrom's life.

The GC never really reached the levels of hype the PS2 had, but still...

Wii, however, is receiving a lot hype, but this time i think it's a bit different. Before the hype was all about graphics, this time it's all about the gameplay. Still crazy hype you'll say, but it seems they have changed direction.

I think people need to remember that Nintendo's marketing strategy is on a completely different level than Sony's and MS's. Seriously, they're different planets. There are many differences, but the main one is that Nintendo does not sell hardware at a loss. This allows them to be more than happy without having the biggest market share, because even if they sell just as many units as N64 (which "failed" in many people's eyes), they'll be making loads of money on the hardware!

Nintendo doesn't want to be the central hub in your livingroom, from which you can watch HD movies, play games, chat to your mates, make coffee... They don't want their hardware to produce bloody Toy Story (*cringe*) kind of graphics or output 18.3 surroung sound, it's too expensive. They want you to have fun with their little controller thing.

So what if in the end Nintendo "only" sells 20M Wii's, compared to Sony and MS's 60M?

In the eyes of anyone outside internet forums, 20M units of one piece of hardware is a GREAT achievment. Heck, and they're making a profit out of all of them, which only increases as the console's life progresses!

Having said that, i'm absolutely certain that Wii will sell a lot more than 1/3rd of their competitors.

Market share is not the main priority to some organisations, and it should not be a priority to all the kids on internet forums who know nothing about marketing, and only care about the big numbers, be it bloody polygon counts, fillrate, HDMI ports, or market share.

I know nothing about Nintendo's marketing strategies, i dont work for them, just making a point that market share is not all a company can target when entering a market. They might be targeting market share, they might not. It seems to me that they're more interested in making a profit, which usually doesn't go hand in hand with market share. Then again the Videogame market is a seriously strange puppy...

 

[GB123]

Or it could be that Nintendo are just standing back whilst the other two kill each other, later to step in and take the crown off their heads.

 

[Xella]

Or it could be that Nintendo are just standing back whilst the other two kill each other, later to step in and take the crown off their heads.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNvrazzkYos
LOL!!!

 

[Sankari]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNvrazzkYos
LOL!!!

That video somehow made me think of Mortal kombat. Don't ask why.

I agree that the real battle is really with PS3 and Xbox360. Wii might be a surprising winner but I have some serious doubts over this.

Wii has potential but I just don't have enough faith for Nintendo to deliver the gaming experience I need. I loved SNES, but I was a little kid back then and the machine worked perfectly back then for me. I think the "Kiddy" console, even though Nintendo machines aren't completely that, has burned in the back of my head quite severely so I just can't get myself to buy one. Don't take me wrong, I'm not thinking that someone would laugh at me, I'm thinking the console doesn't bring me the software I need.

PS3 and Xbox360 in the otherhand seems to have all the titles I want.

 

[Dave]

I do not see why the 360 and PS3 cannot co-exist. This thread presents the situation as if one will succeed and the other will fail, which I simply do not see happening. Both companies will have their share of exclusive titles (Halo3, GoW, etc for 360 and Resistance, Heavenly Sword, etc for PS3).

As long as both systems have a good install base (which they will), developers will not have a problem (well they might, but they'll do it anyway) developing for them both. It reminds me of the early days of the API wars on the PC. Developers would develop for Glide and in a few cases, RRedline and then D3D. They didn't limit themselves to only one API because they knew that not one hardware was totally dominant and so they didn't want to isolate people.

Eventually D3D became standard and everyone supported it, so they only had to develop for that, but in the early days this wasn't the case. Just as they would develop for multiple APIs, so console software developers will develop for both systems. If they don't, they will end up isolating millions of people. Not a smart business move.

-Dave

 

[fearsomepirate]

Market share is not the main priority to some organisations, and it should not be a priority to all the kids on internet forums who know nothing about marketing, and only care about the big numbers, be it bloody polygon counts, fillrate, HDMI ports, or market share.

But if you don't have the biggest marketshare, then you don't "win," and you don't get any of the cool prizes associated with "winning," such as fanperson bragging rights. At the end of each console generation, they hand out medals for the company that sold the most. Didn't you know that?

 

[22psi]

I think this market is robust and big enough to support 3 consoles.

 

[London Geezer]

But if you don't have the biggest marketshare, then you don't "win," and you don't get any of the cool prizes associated with "winning," such as fanperson bragging rights. At the end of each console generation, they hand out medals for the company that sold the most. Didn't you know that?

For a moment there i thought you were being serious, my mouse was already hovering on your rep button

 

[OtakingGX]

Regionally, I think that the 360 will "win" the Americas and the PS3 Japan. Sony did not do a good job courting Western developers for the PS3 and Microsoft snatched them all up in their absence. Japanese gamers might not like FPS games, but American gamers do, and they're hot on 360 for Halo 3.

Nintendo isn't competing against these two, so I don't think that their successes will hinder Nintendo's sales. They'll sell alongside the PS3 and 360 to all but the most hardcore Sony/MS fans. Ultimately, though, people with money will buy all three. I'll definitely be getting a Wii, then next year a 360 (after it matures a bit) and then once 1080p sets are available and affordable a PS3 (and once it has some compelling games for it).

 

[fulcizombie]

I do not see why the 360 and PS3 cannot co-exist. This thread presents the situation as if one will succeed and the other will fail, which I simply do not see happening. Both companies will have their share of exclusive titles (Halo3, GoW, etc for 360 and Resistance, Heavenly Sword, etc for PS3).

As long as both systems have a good install base (which they will), developers will not have a problem (well they might, but they'll do it anyway) developing for them both. It reminds me of the early days of the API wars on the PC. Developers would develop for Glide and in a few cases, RRedline and then D3D. They didn't limit themselves to only one API because they knew that not one hardware was totally dominant and so they didn't want to isolate people.

Eventually D3D became standard and everyone supported it, so they only had to develop for that, but in the early days this wasn't the case. Just as they would develop for multiple APIs, so console software developers will develop for both systems. If they don't, they will end up isolating millions of people. Not a smart business move.

-Dave

Not only can the ps3 and xbox360 coexist but they will offer unforgettable experiences for gamers.

As for the wii,Nintendo wants to attract non-gamers,as they have stated.That's fine by me and good luck to them.

I have to say that nintendo fans (and i don't care how that comes off) are the most hypocritical beings on the internet.There's just so much wrong with the gospell they are trying to preach that it's not even funny.I will just say that these are the same people who were bashing the ps2 version of Re4 for slightly downgraded graphics and the sane people who were fighting for years to prove how the "GC is equal to the xbox" or how"Rogue leader has bump-mapping".

Now graphics and sound don't matter,playing videogames by waving a remote control does.

 

[OtakingGX]

I have to say that nintendo fans (and i don't care how that comes off) are the most hypocritical beings on the internet.There's just so much wrong with the gospell they are trying to preach that it's not even funny.

It doesn't come off well. There's a difference between a fan and a fanboi. I'd consider myself a Nintendo fan (they make fun games and sweet handhelds).

I will just say that these are the same people who were bashing the ps2 version of Re4 for slightly downgraded graphics and the sane people who were fighting for years to prove how the "GC is equal to the xbox" or how"Rogue leader has bump-mapping".

Again, those are not your run-of-the-mill fans. And GC is equal to the Xbox. I don't recall the Pope's declaration that it is not. Have you played Metroid Prime? Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles? The pixel shader is the end-all be-all for PC GPUs. Since Gamecube doesn't any people automatically discount it as inferior to the Xbox. The Xbox is not a generation ahead of Gamecube, or half of one, or even a sizable margin. It's like arguing that your Porsche is clearly a better car than my Lamborghini.

Now graphics and sound don't matter,playing videogames by waving a remote control does.

Well, since we have a new paradigm to measure games by why don't we? Sony seemed to think that it was a worthwhile investment.

 

[London Geezer]

Now graphics and sound don't matter,playing videogames by waving a remote control does.

It really doesn't matter what they used to do. In the end it was all PR and this kind of PR is influenced by what the competition is doing. One company does something, you have to counter act. Last gen, it was all about bloody bump mapping and generally the consoles were so similar that Nintendo could play on the same level.

Now Nintendo decided not to go down that way and opted for the "fun factor". Funnily enough Sony decided to follow suit.

Really, who cares what they were saying 6 years ago, for a product which is not the product they are marketing now? Different product, different marketing strategy.

 

[Teasy]

SOcean2forever, your looking at the console market as if there is one battle going on and to be in it you have to meet certain requirements like super next gen graphics and losing $200 per console ect That's what the cool kids woud like to have people believe, because that' part of what pushed hype for a new generation "my consoles more powerful then yours and will win teh console warzzz!!", The reality is everyone in the console market is competing for cash and to sell the most consoles (in that order). If Wii sells as the number one console worldwide and makes piles of cash then you can bet Sony and MS will know in there heart who won the so called console war (even thougb they no doubt will follow your line publically and try to discount the system to save face) and they'll likely copy most aspects of the console next gen

 

[Pozer]

And GC is equal to the Xbox. I don't recall the Pope's declaration that it is not. Have you played Metroid Prime? Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles? The pixel shader is the end-all be-all for PC GPUs. Since Gamecube doesn't any people automatically discount it as inferior to the Xbox. The Xbox is not a generation ahead of Gamecube, or half of one, or even a sizable margin.

Sweet, another GC vs. Xbox debate. jk., I think the WII will be very successful in NA because I have friends come up to me constantly these days to tell me they are getting a WII and ask why I am not. It's like the new Ipod trend. Not only do these people have to own one but the have to make sure everyone knows it because they can't wear it.

friend: it's so cool and neat, did you see the controllor.
me: did you see the low res textrues.
friend: and you can download any game ever made and play it.
me: like we did back in 1998 on your mom's pc and got bored with each game in 3 minutes.
friend: I don't even play games anymore and i want one.
me: 4 year old silicon at modern prices.
friend: whats the matter with you.
me: Im a graphics whore. please excuse me.

Nothing against WII its just not for me.

 

[patsu]

I think people need to remember that Nintendo's marketing strategy is on a completely different level than Sony's and MS's. Seriously, they're different planets. There are many differences, but the main one is that Nintendo does not sell hardware at a loss. This allows them to be more than happy without having the biggest market share, because even if they sell just as many units as N64 (which "failed" in many people's eyes), they'll be making loads of money on the hardware!

Nintendo doesn't want to be the central hub in your livingroom, from which you can watch HD movies, play games, chat to your mates, make coffee... They don't want their hardware to produce bloody Toy Story (*cringe*) kind of graphics or output 18.3 surroung sound, it's too expensive. They want you to have fun with their little controller thing.

So what if in the end Nintendo "only" sells 20M Wii's, compared to Sony and MS's 60M?

In the eyes of anyone outside internet forums, 20M units of one piece of hardware is a GREAT achievment. Heck, and they're making a profit out of all of them, which only increases as the console's life progresses!

Having said that, i'm absolutely certain that Wii will sell a lot more than 1/3rd of their competitors.

Market share is not the main priority to some organisations, and it should not be a priority to all the kids on internet forums who know nothing about marketing, and only care about the big numbers, be it bloody polygon counts, fillrate, HDMI ports, or market share.

I know nothing about Nintendo's marketing strategies, i dont work for them, just making a point that market share is not all a company can target when entering a market. They might be targeting market share, they might not. It seems to me that they're more interested in making a profit, which usually doesn't go hand in hand with market share. Then again the Videogame market is a seriously strange puppy...

Hey london-boy, looks like you're doing great in your marketing classes.

Nintendo spent one generation to ponder over (and explore) their identity and new direction. Looks like it's working out for them. I can't say "congrats" to them enough. So... congratulations ! Nintendo.

 

[pc999]

Taking in account that games like BUZZ, despite they very bad reviewns are a really sucess in the EU (most of it, if not all) for the casual gamer and no gamers (even some gamers too) making easy proffit for Sony, I can only disagree that Wii will not battle it PS3. It may not battle at the begining but it will sonner or later.

Also if IIRC from the E3 they presented a few casual/no gamer features like Karaoke and such.

So even if we think that Nintendo is only after markets here S/MS does not have big changes (wich I disagre many gamers seems interested) they will battle too.

Anyway only Sony and MS wants to "win", one to make money on the console, instal a good BR base, give reasons to people buy HDTVs, and maybe make it a trojan horse for a few more products. MS wants to win to kill Sony (now maybe Nintendo too) and stay without competition in any market. Nintendo just want money and they are already getting it.

 

[patsu]

There will be overlaps among their userbases, but Nintendo's focus is very directed and different from the other 2 guys. A large portion of their users (i.e., people who appreciate Wii games' simplicity) will likely be different from the rest. Hit Wii games will probably have unique presentation and interaction from the "usuals". Even in the online area, Mii is an early peek at how different/fun it can be from XBL.

Sony and MS are more head-on, from target audience to disc format to online vision.