@ Acert93
Nice analysis although you kinda take the Microsoft route.
Not sure what you mean by that. I would call it tempered realism. The market changes every generation and new variables impact the market. This gen is no different in those regards. I have never been a gloom and doom person toward Sony (I have long held my stance on 80-100M unit sales in 5 years from launch), but I also see where the pristine shine on Sony's market leadership has a couple blotches. Much of that will wash away once real software hits and the focus shifts (like it did last year for the 360), but since the spring Sony has stirred up a fairly constant stream of negative market reaction. Console delay, expensive pricing, E3 no shows, rumors of significant hardware shortages, key games slipping to 2007, hardware speed reductions, the appearant concession of exclusive titles, etc. There has been some good news, but all of the above was completely avoidable. Of course MS and Nintendo make similar gaffs, but I think the difference is that as the market leader Sony is not only more visible, but has also made a habit of NOT making these sort of mistakes.
Anyhow, the point of my responses was only to temper the reactions to
AC being multi-platform. The industry HAS changed. Exclusives are rarer.
Spelled out: One of Sony's
many key strengths has been exclusives. This has been driven by a number of factors like large install base, significant support / lack of competition in Japan, early release, etc
The market has changed, and I think publishers see the following as "changes from the status quo":
• Early Release: MS launched a year earlier and already has a selection of quality "budget" games. That combined with MS surely hitting stategic price points first will mean MS having a larger install base, this is an important and viable platform for software in a way the Xbox1 was not. Publishers cannot afford to ignore the platform with exclusives because it would cost money.
• Install Base: MS looks like they will have an install base lead into 2008. If Publishers want to maximize their development investment it going exclusive to the PS3 without Sony funding would upset investors and their bottomline.
• Games are more expensive to develop, specifically on the art creation side: Exclusive status needs to be offset by significant funding. We hear rumors of MS paying SK and Bioware $20M+ to cover dev costs for games. That is an expensive investment. Now consider the cost of an exclusive for an existing, established franchise that is guaranteed to sell 2M+ copies? The potential lost sales means the publisher will demand mad moneyhats for exclusive status. Both MS and Sony are less willing to pay lots and lots of money to aquire these exclusives. Again, for publishers to maximize profits of higher dev costs they need to either receive significant funding for exclusive status or go multi-platform.
• Cost: Consumers are price sensative. No one knows exactly how the entire market will react, but we can safely bet consumers wont buy as many $400 consoles as they would $200 consoles, especially when you begin factoring in casual gamers and poorer nations. The cost of the PS3 will slow some sales whereas MS has positioned themselves for a higher install base this time around. I believe Publishers realize this and know that sticking a game exclusive on the PS3 won't maximize sales. In 2009 or so there may be a large enough PS3 install base to ignore MS, but from a Publisher stand point it is almost suicide to ignore 50%+ of the next gen consoles in 2007.
This is an
Assassin's Creed thread so I am trying to stay on topic, which I am trying to do by expressing my view on why a Publisher, like Ubi, would not make AC an exclusive on the PS3 in Q1 2007. This isn't pro MS, anti Sony, etc, but my perspective on why this deal turned out the way it did. Now you are looking this as the "MS route" but note I said "changes from the status quo". The status quo is Sony is the market leader, owns Japan, has THE brand presence for gaming and quality consumer goods, and pretty much everyone agrees they are going to win the install base war.
But there are a number of factors, from a Publishers perspective, that have changed this generation that make such exclusives not as wise this time around. At least not at this point in time.
Honestly, they had Halo..and..?
And Sony had GTA3...and..?
You want to talk honesty, I say lets talk honestly and seriously. MS and Nintendo have a number of critically acclaimed and excellently selling exclusive titles.
It is not MS slant/route/twist to recognize that MS
might just have a number of quality games in their portfolio.
On the other hand we also see MS relying on (too) many PC ports
Saying this is like saying Sony relies too much on Japanese products. e.g. I cannot stand turned based RPGs, but I don't see the wealth of such titles on the PS2 as a weakness, but a strength. There are a lot of PC gamers who want PC titles on a console in the living room and non-PC gamers who want to play the best the PC has to offer.
And fair enough, lets look at the PS3 lineup for the next 6 months. It includes a number of PC titles:
Unreal Tournament 2007, Rainbow Six: Vegas, GRAW, Brother in Arms 3, Assassin's Creed, FEAR, the Darkness, Half-Life 2, and so forth.
Seems like a fair share of Sony's upcoming titles are PC ports as well. But no one in their right mind would complain: Those are some REALLY good games!
I cease to see how porting of great PC games hurts Sony or MS.
the UE3 which they even use for their top game (GOW)
See above and note the UE3 titles. Further, the biggest realtime demo at E3 2005 for Sony was an UE3 game. Gears of War is made by Epic so of course they are going to use their engine -- common sense says that parts of UE3 are tailored toward GOW and parts of GOW are tailored around the UE3 technology. That is not a bad thing.
But yes, I have not been a big fan of so many games using UE3. But the fact is for ~1M you get a complete game engine and toolset. That could take 12 months and much more money than that to make -- and there is absolutely NO guarantee your in-house tools will be better or that your renderer will be significantly better. From a AAA dev with skilled people, large budget, and and ample dev time -- yes.
But being realistic, UE3 is a good solution for smaller dev teams, on tight budgets, and needed a NEXT GEN looking game out in late 2006 / early 2007.
Since games like Gears of War, Rainbow Six: Vegas, Brother in Arms 3, Bioshock, Mass Effect, and so forth are some of the BEST looking games coming in the next 6 months it would seem MS was VERY smart to go this route.
I am with you on UE3, but the proof is in the end product. And based on what MS and Sony have been showing, in general it looks like UE3 was a big win to push early this gen.
So on both points, UE3 and PC ports, I do think you are wrong: They do benefit Console Gamers and they have benefited the industry in more games, more often, on more platforms.