Microsoft E3 2009 Keynote Thread
- Thread starter Arwin
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then Gears 3 = mulitplat
It's not MS' first try to tap this market. They tried last year with a Singstar competitor, a followup to their Buzz competitor plus a huge 'casual' marketing push. They weren't entirely successful, this is clearly phase two.
My big concern with this motion camera is that everything I'm hearing, even fan response is like the Wiimote redux. Talk about how 'everything you do on camera will reflect in-game', talk about how 'controllers are scary'. I mean, sure, the Wii remote was successful but I still think it's less because of technology and more because of genius marketing -- the damned thing worked so poorly for actual games that Nintendo has an upgrade lined up this year.
And so more than anything else, MS has to push Disney and Warner and Activision and whomever else to target their kiddy games at their platform, even at the Natal if need be (kids don't have trouble with controllers, unlike moms, but moms won't generally buy consoles for themselves). I think that's a real uphill battle, to create a need among the very young demographic, which has always been Nintendo's forte.
As for getting a version EA Sports Active, I don't doubt it, but I think it'll be the poor cousin, as it lacks the Balance Board, and that's a crucial part -- a motion camera can't replicate the scale functionality.
So in my opinion, what we're more likely to see from MS' push into this market is essentially what we're seeing in the Guitar Hero/Rock Band market. Solid sales (though maybe not as solid), but second place to sales on the Wii.
It's not going to be easy, +50millions persons (will be more by the time natal launchs) have bought the Wii if unclear if they willing to buy something else for now even if the system is clearly better.
Basically is the same problem that a new comer would face entering the market now with a more up to date system even convince a significant part of the hard core gamers wouldn't be that easy.
Anyway there is potential here, Wii sales are slowing in Japan may be the trend will expand if Nintendo dones't manage to push something significant. Still Ms has an opportunity to extend its marketshares, stealing costumers both from sony and Nintendo, by 2010 they will have the "do it all system".
I've seen friends buying the Wii instead of the ps360 on purpose to have their wife playing with them, all of them would have prefer a ps360 if the ps360 have managed to fit the bill it would have been their favored choice. Butto take over the Wii... I think it would be more Nintendo failing to deliver than anything coming from MS or Sony at this point.
Basically is the same problem that a new comer would face entering the market now with a more up to date system even convince a significant part of the hard core gamers wouldn't be that easy.
Anyway there is potential here, Wii sales are slowing in Japan may be the trend will expand if Nintendo dones't manage to push something significant. Still Ms has an opportunity to extend its marketshares, stealing costumers both from sony and Nintendo, by 2010 they will have the "do it all system".
I've seen friends buying the Wii instead of the ps360 on purpose to have their wife playing with them, all of them would have prefer a ps360 if the ps360 have managed to fit the bill it would have been their favored choice. Butto take over the Wii... I think it would be more Nintendo failing to deliver than anything coming from MS or Sony at this point.
Well, I'm not sure how much you've messed with the Wii, but it has some holes in it's game. Accuracy is one issue, another is having the remote POINTED at the screen for it to work. From using it extensively, these limitations have left everyone I know (small group, I know) trading the Wii in, or letting it collect dust.
I love the diversity, I love the idea of mocap controls, I love the price, and I love the expanding demographic Wii is reaching.
I don't like the lack of quality games, and I don't like the limits on the controls.
If MS can address these last two issues, they have a shot.
This is assuming they want to just target kids.
Family and family friendly is the target.
Yes, they've been trying, and failing. If they attempt to keep going down this path of merging xb360 hardcore with "family friendly", they will fail.
They need a different brand to push this family friendly direction. xb360 has been extremely successful in capturing the hardcore market. Diluting this market and message isn't the answer.
This is why I discount the rumour of Natal being $200:
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/news/2009/05/microsofts-big-surprise-at-e3.ars
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/news/2009/05/microsofts-big-surprise-at-e3.ars
Those demographics skew strongly towards kids.
Maybe, but I think that's the way they're going. If they go simply for 'family', whatever that means, they'll also fail. And no, I don't think the painting app is sufficient -- they need actual games. Now, if the Natal is for late next year they have plenty of time for that.
Sure -- maybe they'll rebrand. Keep your eyes open for next year. On the other hand, Microsoft's worked hard to build up the 360 brand, I think they'll instead try and prop it up with a casual leg, whether that's the right or wrong choice.
Hell, I doubt it being $200 because that'd be utterly pointless. No one but tech-heads would buy it at that price. Even if MS has to subsidize the tech it won't be $200.
I like this idea of relaunch but Ms could as well give up on the xbox brand as well as 360. Xbox screams hardcore and teenager to me, it's likely a name extremely unappealing to woman for example.
If this is too happen Ms should really make an extra effort in Japan for some reasons i think that it may be their chance, they have to come with a new brand, a slimmer box, the proper games by 2010 they will be alone (I don't think Sony or Nintendo will have something that big ready to be pushed) it's a great opportunity to do way more than just exist on this market.
EDIT
I think that MS will have to modify the arcade pack one more time, they are in need for more flash imho.
By 2010 Xenon should be made in 45nm and xenos could use the low power rendition of tsmc 40nm process, chips will be tiny and power consumption should go down, How tiny can the 360 be made?
I think that the NXE/interface needs some rework, key features should be in sight with user having to slide up and down.
If this is too happen Ms should really make an extra effort in Japan for some reasons i think that it may be their chance, they have to come with a new brand, a slimmer box, the proper games by 2010 they will be alone (I don't think Sony or Nintendo will have something that big ready to be pushed) it's a great opportunity to do way more than just exist on this market.
EDIT
I think that MS will have to modify the arcade pack one more time, they are in need for more flash imho.
By 2010 Xenon should be made in 45nm and xenos could use the low power rendition of tsmc 40nm process, chips will be tiny and power consumption should go down, How tiny can the 360 be made?
I think that the NXE/interface needs some rework, key features should be in sight with user having to slide up and down.
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I don't think they should give up on xb360. It is very successful in the hardcore market. They just need a supplemental brand to stand beside it for family/casual games.
Have them both log into live, both could even run the same hardware. They just need to have a clear message to family demographics: these Natal games are for you.
Natal360 & Xbox360
Have the option to add the Natal cam to an xb360, and of course, anyone can add a wireless xb360 controller, but the message should be distinct under each brand. If a new xb360 game supports Natal and xb360, have it in both sections. Otherwise, two distinct sections with different games for two "different" systems.
I finally watched the Natal spot, with the family. It looked all proof of concept, none of it looked like real software. I can't see this working well for many games. First who is going to hold their arms out while playing a driving game? You will get fatigues in five minutes. The same with all the jumping and standing stuff, what if the avatar on screen has slower movement speed than the player? The kid playing the monster came to mind, he was moving in slow motion - how do you force a sense of momentum and limited motion with kids spazzing out, ignore half of their motions? The UI stuff looked good, but how do you distinguish random motions from a room full of people? They were also using it in low light, that would be a miracle if possible IMO.
I think this will end up like most camera based gizmos, the support will be focused and limited. The conditions for optimal use will also be in bright non-florescent light, lit from the front.
I think this will end up like most camera based gizmos, the support will be focused and limited. The conditions for optimal use will also be in bright non-florescent light, lit from the front.
deathindustrial
Regular
I believe that the camera uses IR so low light is probably irrelevant. Not making any comments about whether it is likely to work or whether what was shown was vapourware or not, just noting that the low light argument is probably moot.
Cheers
Cheers
I am looking forward to see the "Natal" in real life, sounds promising. The demos for stuff like this are always overdone and rarely practical, that doesnt mean it wont "work" 
Since they don´t have a browser i can understand why Twitter, Facebook etc is integrated in the OS, does this come with Silver or do i need Gold for that?
I think Microsoft had a fantastic conference, Nintendo and Sony better have something special hidden if they want to compete for best presentation
Since they don´t have a browser i can understand why Twitter, Facebook etc is integrated in the OS, does this come with Silver or do i need Gold for that?
I think Microsoft had a fantastic conference, Nintendo and Sony better have something special hidden if they want to compete for best presentation
thatdude90210
Regular
On the whole, that was as good an E3 press conference as MS has ever done. They hit at some great games, plus exclusives, and they finally got maybe the last 3rd party major franchise that they've been missing.
And Natal looks impressive. Too bad there was no mention of when and cost. Plus I would like to have seen real games, not just a couple of demos.
A reporter at Time magazine got some actual hands on with Natal and came away impressed.
And Natal looks impressive. Too bad there was no mention of when and cost. Plus I would like to have seen real games, not just a couple of demos.
A reporter at Time magazine got some actual hands on with Natal and came away impressed.
Let's see:
Games mentioned, and their release.
Rock Band, The Beatles - September 2009
Tony Hawk, Ride -2009
Modern Warfare 2 - 2009
FF13 - 2010
(At this point they said that all the following games would be available "only" on XBox 360, I'm assuming that means exclusive in some way)
Shadow Complex - Summer 2009
Joy Ride - This winter (so could be 2009 or 2010)
Crackdown 2 - 2010 I assume.
Left 4 Dead 2 - 2009
Splinter Cell Conviction - Fall 2009
Forza 3 - October 2009
Halo ODST - September 2009
Halo Reach - 2010
Alan Wake, Spring 2010
MGS: Rising, no clue. Later than 2009 I think - It was mentioned after the statement about being only on XBox, but after the other games, broken up by non-game-related exclusive stuff. So I could still go either way.
So, 14 games, 5 or 6 in 2010. Or if you only count the stuff they talked about after the exclusive statement, you have 4 or 5 out of 10.
In no logic that I am aware of does that equate to "most"
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