So it looks like FTC will sue to prevent the MS acquisition of Activision. UK and EU regulators also seem to be leaning against allowing the acquisition to go through unchallenged./
MS would probably have fared better if the Republicans took the Senate in the midterms, as progressive Senators had already voiced opposition to the deal, given the reported culture problems at Activision.
The reports of a potential FTC lawsuit add to a growing list of troubling signals about the proposed purchase from various international governments. Earlier this month, the European Commission said it was moving on to an "in-depth investigation" of the deal. In the UK, a similar "Phase 2" investigation by the country's Competition and Markets Authority has scheduled hearing for next month.
Those international investigations are expected to wrap up in March, ensuring the proposed deal won't close before then and giving the FTC some time before it would have to file suit. Any such lawsuit would need to be approved by a majority of the four current FTC commissioners and would likely start in the FTC's administrative court. And whatever the outcome, legal maneuvering in the case could easily delay the planned merger past a July 2023 contractual deadline, at which point both companies would have to renegotiate or abandon the deal.
An FTC lawsuit in this matter would also be a the strongest sign yet of a robust antitrust enforcement regime under FTC chair Lina Kahn, a big tech skeptic who was named to the post in June. Back in July, Kahn announced an antitrust lawsuit against Meta (formerly Facebook) and its proposed $400 million purchase of Within, makers of VR fitness app Supernatural.
Three months after Microsoft's proposed purchase was announced in January, a group of four US Senators wrote an open letter strongly urging the FTC to take a close look at the deal. Last month, merger news site Dealreporter said FTC staff had expressed "significant concerns" about the deal. And this week, the New York Times cited "two people" in reporting that the FTC had reached out to other companies for sworn statements laying out their concerns about the deal, a possible sign of lawsuit preparations.
MS would probably have fared better if the Republicans took the Senate in the midterms, as progressive Senators had already voiced opposition to the deal, given the reported culture problems at Activision.