CMA and EU regulators aren't focusing only on COD and aren't suggesting that MS will become a monopoly overnight. They can have negative effects on the market even if they don't become one. They are focusing on the merger/acquisition as a whole with COD being one of the pieces of the puzzle.
According to CMA, based on their observations after the acquisition of Zenimax, they are suspicious of MS's intend for unfair competitive advantage practices. Thats one of the reasons why they mention, that they aren't convinced they won't make COD exclusive. But Consoles are just one piece of the whole market they are investigating.
Also the spending of $68 billion worth of acquisition is enough to create suspicion to investigate further the "why's" and whats in really for it for MS future plans. Because such a huge investment should also be expecting huge amounts of advantages. Besides MS has multiple times suggested in the past during their acquisition spree that they are building a studio portfolio to bring exclusive content to their XBOX ecosystem. Which of course the CMA and EU regulators had no issue with their smaller purchases. But they are now potentially owning a huge amount of popular multiplatform franchises across multiple digital entertainment markets, including PC, Mobile, and Consoles.
Allowing such a merger if anything can go south, is like opening Pandora's box for the regulators.
PS I dont know what you mean by "this market needs technology". Would you elaborate
Based on the CMA's response there are only looking at 3 things, anything outside of this is out of bounds for their investigation.
1. What could be the impact of the merger on gaming consoles and subscription services?
2. What could be the impact of the merger on cloud gaming services?
Anything to do with OS and Azure have only to do with how well MS can support cloud services. It is not about blocking this merger from MS growing in other areas. If this is the case, all corporations are doomed to any type of expansion.
For 1:
https://www.vgchartz.com/article/45...r-about-15-of-xbox-revenue-says-phil-spencer/
"Game Pass as an overall part of our content and services revenue is probably 15 percent I don’t think it gets bigger than that," he said. "I think the overall revenue grows so 15 percent of a bigger number, but we don’t have this future where I think 50–70 percent of our revenue comes from subscriptions."
So there is a limit to how high gamepass will go, and Phil states in this interview that the console game pass market is already saturated. That's why there is a bigger focus on PC game pass now, until they saturate that, they they need to focus on mobile... which.... requires... CLOUD.
Second point for 1: is Sony. CMA cites the marketleader and MS biggest rival in the console space. One would have to prove that Sony would foreclose as a result of this merger. This is unlikely.
For 2. Cloud gaming services. The winner of this space will not be won by content, but by the company that owns the technology that is able to stream fast enough to replace traditional hardware.
As per CMA comments here:
In the longer term,
many market participants expect cloud gaming to grow and for gamers to shift from console gaming to cloud gaming on a range of devices. This market is growing rapidly and has seen several new entrants that were previously not active in console gaming, including cloud platform providers, such as Google and Amazon, and game developers such as Ubisoft.
The bolded will only come true if cloud gaming hardware can supplant traditional console hardware. There is no guarantee of this. And the merger of ABK would have no effect on how hardware progresses.
Cloud gaming services will be forever minimal until this particular problem is solved.