Microsoft acquired Activision Blizzard King for $69 Billion on 2023-10-13

[Deleted member 11852]

Full disclosure I did purchase more MS after this announcement lol.

Ha! I bought Sony. The first time I've bought Sony stock in a decade. It'll bounce in a week and if it approaches a point of where it was that will be an easy 7k. I'm more of a sniping investor, I only buy tech (an industry with which I'm familiar) but avoid anything I know about (insider trading) but more often I act on knee-jerk market reactions and when shares plummet suddenly, I will buy up a bunch then re-sell shortly after.

The Americas (North and South America) bring in more revenue than the rest of the world combined. For FY ending Dec. 31, 2020, 4.434 billion USD for the Americas, 2.68 billion USD for EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) and 972 million USD for Asia Pacific. Between Activision, Blizzard and King, only Blizzard does relatively better in the rest of the world although the Americas still tops the other two regions.

That's surprising given how popular Starcraft II remains in Asia. I assume the skew is more towards North America than South given a bunch of the far South countries are in economic and political turmoil.

 

[zed]

Ha! I bought Sony. The first time I've bought Sony stock in a decade. It'll bounce in a week and if it approaches a point of where it was that will be an easy 7k. I'm more of a sniping investor, I only buy tech (an industry with which I'm familiar) but avoid anything I know about (insider trading) but more often I act on knee-jerk market reactions and when shares plummet suddenly, I will buy up a bunch then re-sell shortly after.

The game is afoot
iroboto vs dsoup

Current price
Microsoft 303.33 USD
Sony 13,135 JPY

edit: nintendo 54,780 JPY might as well add the dark horse

Lets check back in a month and see who made the better investment

 

[DieH@rd]

Sony finally responds. They are counting on previously signed contracts.

"We expect that Microsoft will abide by contractual agreements and continue to ensure Activision games are multiplatform," a Sony spokesman said Thursday.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sony-e...m-11642665939?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter

That's probably for PlayStation COD marketing campaign and early DLCs. However that touches only COD, and not other Acti and Blizz IPs. Or maybe they have some other contract [for devkits, where Acti signed for guaranteed multiplat development]?

 

[cheapchips]

Ok I think we talked this before and I didnt quite get it, or I got it and now I dont remember. How does the revenue to developers work in Gamepass?
Lets say you have thousands of games. Some are played a lot, some are played less, a user pays a monthly subscription and has access to every game available on it.
How is revenue distributed back to the developers who spent tenths of hundreds of millions to produce a game? With units sold you just know and get exactly what demand really is.
But with gamepass how does it work?

MS have said they've done different deals with different developers/publishers. They've been figuring out what works and sticking deals to get content. It's not one size fits all. I'd imagine it's a mix of one off amounts/user based payment/ongoing catalogue payments (for something like EA Play).

MS track everything about you as an Xbox user and Game Pass user. Developers will get a lot of that data back just from the store and a whole load more from Game Pass. Did you play a bit and give up? Do you normally play that genre? Did you play and buy when it left Game Pass? When the game hit Game Pass, what happens with sales from non Game Pass users? (Seems like they go up, somewhat perversely). How much DLC do they buy off a game on the service?

Publishers will be doing their own Sales monitoring outside of MS's ecosystem. I wouldn't be surprised if something like Outriders saw a non-Xbox sales spike when it hit Game Pass.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

My prior is this wont move the needle much at all TBH. Hardware is much more important than this.

It will move the needle - it just doesn't mean that Playstation will become Xbox One suddenly.

Given the timelines here it's likely yrs before the gamer on the street would even notice something, assuming antitrust would even allow the sale if MS didnt commit to COD multiplat.

So you are saying that FTC will fight acquisition over Call of Duty?

I'm honestly not convinced any software acquisition matters that much. How has Zenimax panned out? Xbox is still the same 3rd place as always. Granted we have not seen Zenimax software yet, I would doubt Starfield moves the needle that much and then what? Bethesda probably fades away.

Erm, Zenimax acquisition finished half a year ago and Zenimax hasn't produced any exclusive game yet. The results of yet we have yet to see. It is like I saw one comment that "Sony still 1st" and people answered "Chill dude, it happened only yesterday"

Or maybe they have some other contract [for devkits, where Acti signed for guaranteed multiplat development]?

Nah, I expect COD 2023 coming to Playstation but no others. There is no contracts forcing third parties to develop multiplatform games for years. I don't believe in their existence.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Sony finally responds. They are counting on previously signed contracts.

"We expect that Microsoft will abide by contractual agreements and continue to ensure Activision games are multiplatform," a Sony spokesman said Thursday.

Sony will know that changes aren't imminent because it'll take the regulatory bodies a while to make a determination on this. It makes you wonder how long Sony's contract with Activision is for. A year, two? three?

 

[Nesh]

MS have said they've done different deals with different developers/publishers. They've been figuring out what works and sticking deals to get content. It's not one size fits all. I'd imagine it's a mix of one off amounts/user based payment/ongoing catalogue payments (for something like EA Play).

MS track everything about you as an Xbox user and Game Pass user. Developers will get a lot of that data back just from the store and a whole load more from Game Pass. Did you play a bit and give up? Do you normally play that genre? Did you play and buy when it left Game Pass? When the game hit Game Pass, what happens with sales from non Game Pass users? (Seems like they go up, somewhat perversely). How much DLC do they buy off a game on the service?

Publisher will be doing their own Sales monitoring outside of MS's ecosystem. I wouldn't be surprised if something like Outriders saw a non-Xbox sales spike when it hit Game Pass.

Sounds like a very complicated formula shrouded in mystery. I wonder what developers and publishers thing so far about the service.

 

[DieH@rd]

It makes you wonder how long Sony's contract with Activision is for. A year, two? three?

Even if it is an entire PS5 generation, MS can play a long game. COD is now theirs forever.

 

[cheapchips]

Sounds like a very complicated formula shrouded in mystery. I wonder what developers and publishers thing so far about the service.

Well, it's not that complex in the end. Games on Game Pass sell more (per MS) and either get some cash up front or ongoing to boot. Plus bags of data on customer behaviour.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Even if it is an entire PS5 generation, MS can play a long game. COD is now theirs forever.

That gives other publishers and developers a good period in which to create a better multiplayer shooter than Call of Duty.

What keeps call of Call of Duty popular compared to other competitive online shooters? I have no idea as I don't play it or know anybody who does, but assume it's providing the best experience and that if there is something better than Call of Duty would wane in popularity. Halo uses to be the online shooter. Things can change and cross-platform profitability is a hell of an incentive for a publisher to put in real effort to unseat it. Microtransactions, NFTs, just heap that crap in there - publishers will lap it up.

 

[Nesh]

Well, it's not that complex in the end. Game on Game Pass sell more (per MS) and either get some cash up front or ongoing to boot. Plus bags of data on customer behaviour.

Isn't it? How is that cash up or ongoing calculated?
Games on game pass sell more in terms of what? You dont buy the games. You buy a subscription. Those are things I d like to see answered in detail.

 

[Nisaaru]

Even if it is an entire PS5 generation, MS can play a long game. COD is now theirs forever.

The irony is that they don't even have to play that kind of hardball "immediately". The financial incentive of Gamepass and the expectation of players to be left out in the future will force certain players to make strategic decision imho rather quickly. Why buy a PS5 now if these games are what you desire to play? Why not even sell a PS5 with current market prices?

 

[RDGoodla]

Nah, I expect COD 2023 coming to Playstation but no others. There is no contracts forcing third parties to develop multiplatform games for years. I don't believe in their existence.

There are many timed-exclusive contracts for years. Why aren’t there contracts for cross-platform games?

Even if it is an entire PS5 generation, MS can play a long game. COD is now theirs forever.

I guess Sony has bought COD priority for entire PS5 lifetime. After this COD isn’t necessarily on PlayStation but COD brand is also not necessarily strong by then.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Sony will know that changes aren't imminent because it'll take the regulatory bodies a while to make a determination on this. It makes you wonder how long Sony's contract with Activision is for. A year, two? three?

If I were to guess, for COD it's something like this.

• Determine which console is selling the best in a generation or generating the most hype.
• Get a licensing deal for that generation or that generation + 1 or 2 titles.
• Rinse and repeat.

For PS3/X360 generation that was Microsoft. After 1 game (might have been 2, my memory is fuzzy) in the PS4/XBO generation that switched to PS4. PS5 continued PS4's success and even though XBS consoles are doing better than any other Xbox console thus far, PS5 is still ahead, so those contracts remained with PS5.

So, to answer your question, it's possibly for the entire PS5 generation or PS5 generation + 1-2 titles.

Of course, if MS gains control of Activision-Blizzard, it's unlikely that they'll sign future exclusivity deals or cross-promotion deals. But I also really don't see MS making COD exclusive to Xbox. I could, however, see MS make exclusive DLC for Xbox similar to what has happened historically with X360, PS4, and now PS5. Likewise, COD eSports will require that players use Xbox consoles similar to how players have been required to use PS4 consoles and now PS5 consoles.

How is that cash up or ongoing calculated?

There is quite literally no other information from MS other than subscribers to Game Pass spend ~50% more money than non-subscribers. Of course, that number may or may not have changed as that was something they said last year. So all we can do is guess.

• DLC
• Subscribers buying other titles (which aren't on GP) from a developer on GP of a game they've played for the first time and ended up enjoying.
• Subscribers try a new gaming genre for the first time in their life, like it, and then go and buy games not on GP within that same genre.
• Subscribers try some indie games for the first time in their life, enjoy it, and then go and look for other indie titles which aren't on GP and buy some.
• Subscribers liking a game so much that they buy it because they want to "own" it.
• Subscribers start playing a game and enjoying it. Then they see it's set to leave GP shortly, so they go and buy it.
• Other reasons I can't think of.

Regards,
SB

 

[Deleted member 11852]

There are many timed-exclusive contracts for years. Why aren’t there contracts for cross-platform games?

I think the last investor report said Sony had about $16bn cash on hand. Of course, borrowing money to buy things is preferable to spending your own money because spending yours money is taxable whereas spending debt is deductible. Where possible, you want to borrow to spend but it's obviously not always possible.

What is interesting about Sony's cash on hand number is that a year before it was $44bn. Sony had a good year with nothing to explain this disparity so they may have bought some things or just spent a pile of money on things yet to be announced. I think the norm for Japanese companies is to only announce after acquisitions are final. It's unimaginable that Sony have spent tens of billions on anything video game related because that does not fit their pattern of acquisitions at all. It's more likely capital investment in production of silicon (which we know they are doing) and some movie stuff.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

So, to answer your question, it's possibly for the entire PS5 generation or PS5 generation + 1-2 titles.

Of course, if MS gains control of Activision-Blizzard, it's unlikely that they'll sign future exclusivity deals or cross-promotion deals. But I also really don't see MS making COD exclusive to Xbox. I could, however, see MS make exclusive DLC for Xbox similar to what has happened historically with X360, PS4, and now PS5. Likewise, COD eSports will require that players use Xbox consoles similar to how players have been required to use PS4 consoles and now PS5 consoles.

A deal spanning an entire generation, where anything can happen, seems bonkers.

In terms of DLC being platform exclusive, if the game is not introducing regular content change because DLC is not available on one platform, wouldn't that result in the game becoming really repetitive and players just abandoning it?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I think the last investor report said Sony had about $16bn cash on hand. Of course, borrowing money to buy things is preferable to spending your own money because spending yours money is taxable whereas spending debt is deductible. Where possible, you want to borrow to spend but it's obviously not always possible.

What is interesting about Sony's cash on hand number is that a year before it was $44bn. Sony had a good year with nothing to explain this disparity so they may have bought some things or just spent a pile of money on things yet to be announced. I think the norm for Japanese companies is to only announce after acquisitions are final. It's unimaginable that Sony have spent tens of billions on anything video game related because that does not fit their pattern of acquisitions at all. It's more likely capital investment in production of silicon (which we know they are doing) and some movie stuff.

Well, in 2021 Sony acquired Bluepoint, Nixxes, Housemarque, Firesprite and Valkyrie Entertatainment for gaming developers. They also acquired the EVO Championship series.

In 2021 they also acquired Crunchyroll, the entire Bruce Springsteen catalogue, Sam Livre (music), AWAL (Kobalt Neighoring Rights? Music), Somethin' Else (multiple media genres) and Bad Wolf (TV).

As well in 2021 they gained or increased their stakes in Epic Games, Scopely and Devolver Digital for games. Just minority stakes, some relatively small like increasing their stake in Epic Games by 0.7%.

Elsewhere, they gained or increased their stakes in Discord, Kadokawa Corporation, Alamo Records (majority stake) and Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (less than 20%).

2021 was by far their most active year WRT acquisitions and investments in other companies.

While some of those may or may not have been finalized in time for the investor report that you looked at, they money may have already been earmarked for it.

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

A deal spanning an entire generation, where anything can happen, seems bonkers.

In terms of DLC being platform exclusive, if the game is not introducing regular content change because DLC is not available on one platform, wouldn't that result in the game becoming really repetitive and players just abandoning it?

For COD, the multiplayer maps and stuff are non-exclusive. Then there's also exclusive DLC/modes. For example, the Zombies DLC/mode for COD: Black Ops Cold War was exclusive to PlayStation for 1 year.

Regards,
SB

 

[Nesh]

There is quite literally no other information from MS other than subscribers to Game Pass spend ~50% more money than non-subscribers. Of course, that number may or may not have changed as that was something they said last year. So all we can do is guess.

• DLC
• Subscribers buying other titles (which aren't on GP) from a developer on GP of a game they've played for the first time and ended up enjoying.
• Subscribers try a new gaming genre for the first time in their life, like it, and then go and buy games not on GP within that same genre.
• Subscribers try some indie games for the first time in their life, enjoy it, and then go and look for other indie titles which aren't on GP and buy some.
• Subscribers liking a game so much that they buy it because they want to "own" it.
• Subscribers start playing a game and enjoying it. Then they see it's set to leave GP shortly, so they go and buy it.
• Other reasons I can't think of.

Regards,
SB

How long do games stay before they are rotated?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

How long do games stay before they are rotated?

There's no fixed time. Some games have been on there since the service started while some games have left the service.

It's likely a combination of multiple factors. A couple examples would be: "How long does the developer/publisher want the title to be on GP?" or "Is player engagement with the title still above a certain metric?" That metric is likely variable depending on the cost to keep it on the service. There are likely far more factors that go into determining when or if a title leaves the service.

Regards,
SB