latest quarter shipment nums

[DonaldDuck]

Considerations of channel saturation aside, the numbers show an increase in PS3 market share, and a consistent improvement in their sales. In any case, the turn in this long distant race between XTS and PS3 tides each year, due in part to the alternance in "boosts", launching of slim models, price reductions and so on. Price in particular seems to be a key factor. This year XTS, with its slim model, seems the one with clear advantage. Next year I expect Sony to reduce the price tag to 250, and for sure it will have an impact in sales.

But the point now is what will happen with the new controls. It´s a restart of the offerings of both consoles, more focused and "clear" in case of Kinect, but no one knows their future. It seems that XTS is building up a very interesting moment with the linear progression slim-reach-kinect, being PS3 a bit more constrained because of not having a new model or price reduction in sight. Nevertheless, Move has a bit of room with their shipping in september, and GT5 could help Sony in Europe.

The key factor now is UE. XTS is making advancements there (that´s very clear now) and Kinect can be a killer application for newcomers (or not). That would be the point. USA is beyond PS3 capabilities and the offering don´t allow them to overtake XTS, even in monthly sales. Sony will be happy if PS3 keeps pace in USA, for sure. And I think it will succeed in that, but that´s not enough to recover the huge gap in that territory.

UE, in the other hand, is a market in which GT saga performs fairly well. Sony needs UE to recover the gap of USA.

A point that is not mentioned very often but that I find fairly probable is the possibility of a PS3 price reduction but only in Japan. The yen is not a problem in an internal market and boosting PS3 in its home could be an unexpected factor. I bet for a price reduction in Japan with the shipment of Move.

 

[Gerry]

XTS?

Oh. Xbox Three Sixty. What an odd acronym. Never seen anyone else use that.

 

[goonergaz]

OOI why do you call the X360 XTS Xbox Three Sixty!?

 

[DonaldDuck]

Well, in spanish you can spell it the same: X box T rescientos S esenta, and I´m spanish. I write the same acronym in both languajes, and now I´m used to it. It´s more "economic", few letters (XTS vs XBOX360 or X360). I know it´s not very usual to read it here, but in Spain it is more common. And it has a great advantage if you´re typing and don´t excel in tapping the numbers in the keyboard: it has none.

Maybe a bit weird, but it´s OK to me.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

360 is good enough. These days even XB would cut it, in the context of discussion clearly meaning the vurrent version rather than the old one.

 

[Titanio]

Anyways, I figured out why Sony has such gaudy shipment numbers this quarter, they're clearly making up for past shortages, their sales clearly dont equal these numbers in Apr-Jun. But basically it's this:

Jan-March, PS3 NPD=~950k, Japan sales from Media Create ~500k, total 1.45m in USA/Japan, Sony announced ship of 2.2m.

Apr-Jun PS3 NPD=~640k, MC Japan sales=~250k, Total ~900k USA/Japan, Sony announces shipments of 2.4m.

We can add a little colour here. Per Nintendo's numbers, Sony sold ~750k in Q1 in the european countries they have data for. Add that in to the Q1 number and you get - neatly - 2.2m. Nintendo's numbers aren't wholly comprehensive...if you add the rest of the untracked Euro territories and the other PAL and Asian territories, actual sales probably exceeded their Q1 shipment. It's probably rare that you'd have shipped numbers come so close to sold, that probably only happens when supply is extremely tight.

So yes, for Q2 I expect there was a certain amount of catching up on orders and such, and also orders growing in size as retailers found good demand. But if there was this catch-up, it kind of argues against Sony's methodology being to count ordered by retailer vs shipped to retailer (e.g. if Q2 figures reflect supply constraints and catching up on Q1 orders - if units were counted when ordered, those orders would fall under Q1 numbers).

 

[DonaldDuck]

In addition to that, the Microsoft marketing in Spain present XBOX 360 on TV as "XBOX Tres Sesenta", translating directly from english the expression "XBOX Three Sixty" and not in the form "XBOX Three hundred and Sixty". In "formal" spanish the name of the console would be read "Equis box trescientos sesenta", and that´s why in Spain everyone understand the acronym "XTS".

I understand the way they sell the "name" of the console in spanish: "Three Sixty" sounds more "direct" and "modern" that "Three hundred and Sixty" and, an essential point here, it is perceived as more "american".

A bit off-topic, but interesting, I think.

 

[goonergaz]

In addition to that, the Microsoft marketing in Spain present XBOX 360 on TV as "XBOX Tres Sesenta", translating directly from english the expression "XBOX Three Sixty" and not in the form "XBOX Three hundred and Sixty". In "formal" spanish the name of the console would be read "Equis box trescientos sesenta", and that´s why in Spain everyone understand the acronym "XTS".

I understand the way they sell the "name" of the console in spanish: "Three Sixty" sounds more "direct" and "modern" that "Three hundred and Sixty" and, an essential point here, it is perceived as more "american".

A bit off-topic, but interesting, I think.

Thanks for that - you learn something new each day! )

 

[thesource]

I surprised the usual culprits havent posted this already, (looks at data) oh wait

You have certainly stirred the hornets nest.

A couple of crumbs from me

The PS3 should hit Sonys 15m estimates. The following fiscal I'd imagine it to be between 18 to 22 million. All part of the convergence of the whole. Pricepoint :the catalyst, 3D, Motion control, powerful 1st party (quantity and quality), Blu-Ray (mainstream)

The Xbox releasing 12/17 months earlier has muddied the waters alot. If they'd released day and date the PS3 would be a good 10m or so ahead already before what will be the peak years of the PS3. So MS have always had a double double plus. High initial PS3 pricepoint and releasing earlier so giving an even more magnified price difference. That's gone.

 

[NavNucST3]

You have certainly stirred the hornets nest.

A couple of crumbs from me

The PS3 should hit Sonys 15m estimates. The following fiscal I'd imagine it to be between 18 to 22 million. All part of the convergence of the whole. Pricepoint :the catalyst, 3D, Motion control, powerful 1st party (quantity and quality), Blu-Ray (mainstream)

The Xbox releasing 12/17 months earlier has muddied the waters alot. If they'd released day and date the PS3 would be a good 10m or so ahead already before what will be the peak years of the PS3. So MS have always had a double double plus. High initial PS3 pricepoint and releasing earlier so giving an even more magnified price difference. That's gone.

I'm not sure where to begin with this post other than to say that I respectfully disagree that the PS3 could push 20M+ units in the next FY.

 

[corduroygt]

I'm not sure where to begin with this post other than to say that I respectfully disagree that the PS3 could push 20M+ units in the next FY.

Depends on the price, if they drop to $199, they may very well sell that much...

 

[NathansFortune]

Depends on the price, if they drop to $199, they may very well sell that much...

Indeed. People forget the brand power that PlayStation still has. At $199 the demand would be absolutely insane. I mean they are going to ship 15m at $299, I haven't personally worked out the price elasticity of it, but 20-25m at $199 is not a bad bet considering the previous point of 15m at $299.

It's been a long road for PS3, and I know people are still unwilling to accept that it will be a very successful device over its lifetime (for reasons unbeknownst to myself) but it will be despite that.

 

[NavNucST3]

Indeed. People forget the brand power that PlayStation still has. At $199 the demand would be absolutely insane. I mean they are going to ship 15m at $299, I haven't personally worked out the price elasticity of it, but 20-25m at $199 is not a bad bet considering the previous point of 15m at $299.

It's been a long road for PS3, and I know people are still unwilling to accept that it will be a very successful device over its lifetime (for reasons unbeknownst to myself) but it will be despite that.

The bolded is the same bullshit from the first post...

Do you have any indication that a $199 price point is incoming? We are going to skip $279 and $249 and just go straight to $199? Is a lower price going to make a statistical difference in Japan? The price parity that the PS3 has with the 360 (according to this board and others) was supposed to have it shifting significantly more units per month in the US which has yet to occur. I fully expect a price reduction to have a significant impact in PAL but is that enough to cover the spread?

Having just reached hardware profitability in the prior quarter I find it hard to believe that by the START of the next FY the price would have been reduced to $199. Maybe, MAYBE, by Q3 which would then mean they would not only have to produce enough units (which has not been a strong suit of SNE) but they would also have to have them sold-in [re-read my parenthetical].

Peoples nostalgia for the PlayStation brand should not be overstated either...

I have no problem with an 18M guidance (well, to be honest I would have some problem with it but it is not unfathomable). EDIT: I definitely doubted the 13M guidance and was wrong about that so I'm definitely not a perfect forecaster.

 

[corduroygt]

Do you have any indication that a $199 price point is incoming? We are going to skip $279 and $249 and just go straight to $199? Is a lower price going to make a statistical difference in Japan? The price parity that the PS3 has with the 360 (according to this board and others) was supposed to have it shifting significantly more units per month in the US which has yet to occur. I fully expect a price reduction to have a significant impact in PAL but is that enough to cover the spread?

1. You are right, it's not very likely that we'll see PS3 drop to $199 soon, there hasn't been any indicators, but no one said that it would, it was a "what if" analysis.
2. The $299 PS3 has consistently outsold the $299 360 in the US since it was released. It's just that the other (roughly) half of 360 sales are $199 units, so added up they sell more in total

 

[Silent_Buddha]

2. The $299 PS3 has consistently outsold the $299 360 in the US since it was released. It's just that the other (roughly) half of 360 sales are $199 units, so added up they sell more in total

Not exactly an argument worth even saying out loud. As you are assuming that none of the people that bought an arcade would have bought a premium/elite. You can't even state with any certainty that there would have been any significant loss of sales from the absence of an arcade. All we know is there would have been a loss somewhere greater than 0 units.

But then all of that is pretty irrelevant anyways. There IS an arcade unit that sells for less than the PS3. Just like there IS a Wii that sells for less than the PS3.

PS3 slim was supposed to herald in the dawn of PS3 hardware dominance in the US. That didn't happen. Whether due to buyer apathy at a 299 price point, Sony's inability to produce enough units despite the quite obvious and well known fact that March saw the introduction of multiple potential high selling titles (which in the end just makes it sound like an excuse rather than a production problem), or whatever factors...

The fact remains that the X360 outsold the PS3 Slim for the past 7 months, and that doesn't appear in danger of changing before the year ends. And with the introduction of the X360 S (with no price cuts unlike PS3 Slim) at the exact same price point as the Elite was at, it's increased its lead over the PS3 Slim in monthly sales.

Just think about that. PS3 needed both a new form factor in addition to a 100 USD price cut in order to spur sales. X360 only had a new form factor with no change in price to spur sales.

Seriously, I don't really see many likely scenarios which has the PS3 surpassing the X360 in the US just as there aren't many likely scenarios for X360 to surpass PS3 in the EU. Although if I had to bet actual money on one of those unlikely scenarios, I'd say it's far more likely that X360 will pass the PS3 in the EU than PS3 passing the X360 in the US. But, I'd rather just keep my money as both of those would likely be losing bets.

Regards,
SB

 

[corduroygt]

Not exactly an argument worth even saying out loud. As you are assuming that none of the people that bought an arcade would have bought a premium/elite. You can't even state with any certainty that there would have been any significant loss of sales from the absence of an arcade. All we know is there would have been a loss somewhere greater than 0 units.

II can state with certainty that there would be VERY significant sales loss without the arcade, and my proof is simple, MS has analyzed the market and decided on this strategy to the point of making the HDD optional so they could cut costs. Now who are we to know better than MS market research, they have access to data that we don't have.

But, I'd rather just keep my money as both of those would likely be losing bets.

I agree you on this, especially in the light of the JPY/USD exchange ratios that surpassing the 360 in the US isn't even as high on the priority list for Sony compared to surpassing Nintendo in Japan and to a much lesser degree in Europe.