fearsomepirate said:
You guys who think that homebrew is going to cause some sort of massive upswing in PSP sales might need to ask yourself how many non-geeks will actually care. It's like predicting that Linux will overtake home PC because it comes with so many useful programming tools.
It could have an affect if they actually embraced it (or at least were commonly recognized to be "not fighting it" any more), as there are plenty of video gaming geeks who know what they're doing--or at least have ONE friend who does--to take advantage of it.
But, unfortunately, I don't think Sony's going to back down any time soon, and you get VERRRRRY few who are interested in playing the cat and mouse "crack the PSP to play homebrew" game.
fearsomepirate said:
The problem with your theory is that Sony likely wanted to sell way more PSPs in Japan than they are now. What do you think is the #1 reason that PSP sales aren't higher than they are?
...because they're more expensive, and Nintendo has owned the "portable console" market since 1989? (Even further back if you want to count their Game & Watch machines, really.) Just because Phil says they're not "direct competitors" doesn't mean there's NO crossover.
From what I can tell following Japanese sales numbers over the years, they appear to follow a few patterns:
1) They lean on new tech much more heavily than old tech, unless--like with the 360--it has been rejected for lack of regional interest. (There's some "xenophobia" in there too, certainly, but mainly they know the 360 doesn't have
their games... yet... and than until they do, they'll simply wait for the Wii or PS3 which more assuredly WILL have
their games in heavy concentration.) Just check out their most recent
hardware chart, and you can see that they're much less forgiving of old tech than NA. Anything but the DS Lite, PSP, and PS2 may as well not be there.
2) They seem to "pick a winner" in a segment and stick with it. There may be some cultural conformity going on there and a little bit of that "fad" element I mentioned in earlier posts ("c'mon, kid... everybody's doing it!"), but by-and-large they stick with a platform. New tech will peek through for a while, but may not build enough support to survive the NEXT "new tech," or may just not have enough draw to overcome prior momentum. Essentially, no new "winner" gets picked.
3) They seem to
really like redesigns and case options.
In Japan right now, the PS2 still sells by being the previous "winner" and have no new accepted tech replacement in that arena. The DS is the definitive winner in the portable arena, but that it doesn't outsell the PSP by as huge a margin as in previous console fights actually--even if "weirdly"--speaks to what Phil is talking about. (As an example, the PS2 outsold the Gamecube by almost 4:1 in the Cube's first year and just continued to increase that ratio year by year to 7:1 in 2005, with the "total sold" being around 5:1 by that time, too.)
As well, taking the software sales into consideration, there has to be more of that "something else" he's referring to in there to
some level. For instance, in 2005 the PSP hardware was outsold 2:1 by the DS, but software-wise they didn't break into the chart until #40 with "Minna no Golf Portable"--a title that always sold like gangbusters on the PS1&2--which sold only 270k units... over 4x less than the top DS title (Animal Crossing). Granted MnG was continued from the previous year, but if you compare #2's and #3's, the ratio doesn't improve. While the software tie-in ratio doesn't often match the hardware sale ratio, I'm not sure how often we see it being
worse; we usually see the community condense and be more apt to support the quality titles, so "comparing top sellers" almost always beats out the hardware ratio.
Now THIS year the DS is outselling the PSP by almost 4:1, and will likely end the year with that ratio. (Or at least with painless rounding.
) Software-wise...? I'm not sure how it comapres currently--or in relation to last year--as it's hard to measure until they do the yearly breakdown (essentially, you can't easily find sales totals on anything that isn't in the Top 30 week-by-week), but I wouldn't be too shocked if there were some 8:1's as best-case scenarios. (And if so, that still begs more analysis as to the "why does the hardware sells at an appreciably better ratio?" question.)
Some of it may be explainable in the frameworks of their being contemporaries--which seldom happens otherwise. (The Cube and Xbox were, but THAT comparison has MUCH more easy explanations! Heh...) But I can't really formulate how or
why it would, especially since Nintendo has owned the portable market for ages (and certainly the PS momentum stalled the Dreamcast in Japan, as even WAITING for the PS2 was enough to make the DC sell worse than the PS1), and been doing everything right: more games of the type the portable gamers have vied for over the years, a MUCH better redesign compared to the PSP offering a "ceramic white" case option, and exploring enough new options in appealing ways (Nintendogs, the "training" games...) to bring their fanbase over and attract newcomers. (Again, some of the "fad" comments I used earlier, as the brain training games came out of nowhere in more of an "explosion" fashion.
And they're eyecatching enough to attract people who couldn't consider a "GameBoy" of any sort otherwise. [Used in quotes, of course, because they're the kinds of folk who call the PSP a "GameBoy" as well. And probably even the PS2 a "Nintendo," since they basically haven't paid attention since the 80's. Hehe...] Certainly I've gained much attention--and probably a few converts--just by bringing Brain Age and BBA around with me after--yes--the Lite finally turned me over to a portable option. Hehe... Getting an Opera browser coming just around the corner didn't hurt either.)
...
*looks up*
Ok, that was a bit long, and probably a bit too rambling, but all I'm really saying here is there's no "hard and fast answer" to ANYTHING in this respect. Just lots that's worthy of investigation. ^_^
...and this doesn't even get into how it will affect the Wii or PS3 yet, either!
