Japanese Mag: Wii vs PS3

no, wait, we're not discussing anecdotal stuff here, we're discussing market acceptance. as by statistics figures.

a ps2 is quite powerful too. but we're comparing it to the 'latest & greatest' available on the market.

but i did not say it did not have features, i said

apparently nds was referred to as 'less advanced'. basically the publicly know fact that the psp is the way more powerful of the two.

why not, nintendo do that themselves - their current handheld line includes the sp, the micro, the ds and the lite (is the ds still in production, btw?) and the ds did fight against the rest of the line for quite some time, iirc. as fearsome puts it, they've been competing for (more or less) the same dollar.

 

A product competitor is one that takes money away from your product. One way to look at is to ask, if that product didn't exist, would they have bought your product?

So, if the Wii didn't (or will not) exist, will they buy a PS3 or just not play video games at all? If the answer for the majority is the former (they'll buy a PS3 instead), then Wii is a direct competitor to the PS3.

 

It could have an affect if they actually embraced it (or at least were commonly recognized to be "not fighting it" any more), as there are plenty of video gaming geeks who know what they're doing--or at least have ONE friend who does--to take advantage of it.

But, unfortunately, I don't think Sony's going to back down any time soon, and you get VERRRRRY few who are interested in playing the cat and mouse "crack the PSP to play homebrew" game.

...because they're more expensive, and Nintendo has owned the "portable console" market since 1989? (Even further back if you want to count their Game & Watch machines, really.) Just because Phil says they're not "direct competitors" doesn't mean there's NO crossover.

From what I can tell following Japanese sales numbers over the years, they appear to follow a few patterns:

1) They lean on new tech much more heavily than old tech, unless--like with the 360--it has been rejected for lack of regional interest. (There's some "xenophobia" in there too, certainly, but mainly they know the 360 doesn't have their games... yet... and than until they do, they'll simply wait for the Wii or PS3 which more assuredly WILL have their games in heavy concentration.) Just check out their most recent hardware chart, and you can see that they're much less forgiving of old tech than NA. Anything but the DS Lite, PSP, and PS2 may as well not be there.

2) They seem to "pick a winner" in a segment and stick with it. There may be some cultural conformity going on there and a little bit of that "fad" element I mentioned in earlier posts ("c'mon, kid... everybody's doing it!"), but by-and-large they stick with a platform. New tech will peek through for a while, but may not build enough support to survive the NEXT "new tech," or may just not have enough draw to overcome prior momentum. Essentially, no new "winner" gets picked.

3) They seem to really like redesigns and case options.

In Japan right now, the PS2 still sells by being the previous "winner" and have no new accepted tech replacement in that arena. The DS is the definitive winner in the portable arena, but that it doesn't outsell the PSP by as huge a margin as in previous console fights actually--even if "weirdly"--speaks to what Phil is talking about. (As an example, the PS2 outsold the Gamecube by almost 4:1 in the Cube's first year and just continued to increase that ratio year by year to 7:1 in 2005, with the "total sold" being around 5:1 by that time, too.)

As well, taking the software sales into consideration, there has to be more of that "something else" he's referring to in there to some level. For instance, in 2005 the PSP hardware was outsold 2:1 by the DS, but software-wise they didn't break into the chart until #40 with "Minna no Golf Portable"--a title that always sold like gangbusters on the PS1&2--which sold only 270k units... over 4x less than the top DS title (Animal Crossing). Granted MnG was continued from the previous year, but if you compare #2's and #3's, the ratio doesn't improve. While the software tie-in ratio doesn't often match the hardware sale ratio, I'm not sure how often we see it being worse; we usually see the community condense and be more apt to support the quality titles, so "comparing top sellers" almost always beats out the hardware ratio.

Now THIS year the DS is outselling the PSP by almost 4:1, and will likely end the year with that ratio. (Or at least with painless rounding. ) Software-wise...? I'm not sure how it comapres currently--or in relation to last year--as it's hard to measure until they do the yearly breakdown (essentially, you can't easily find sales totals on anything that isn't in the Top 30 week-by-week), but I wouldn't be too shocked if there were some 8:1's as best-case scenarios. (And if so, that still begs more analysis as to the "why does the hardware sells at an appreciably better ratio?" question.)

Some of it may be explainable in the frameworks of their being contemporaries--which seldom happens otherwise. (The Cube and Xbox were, but THAT comparison has MUCH more easy explanations! Heh...) But I can't really formulate how or why it would, especially since Nintendo has owned the portable market for ages (and certainly the PS momentum stalled the Dreamcast in Japan, as even WAITING for the PS2 was enough to make the DC sell worse than the PS1), and been doing everything right: more games of the type the portable gamers have vied for over the years, a MUCH better redesign compared to the PSP offering a "ceramic white" case option, and exploring enough new options in appealing ways (Nintendogs, the "training" games...) to bring their fanbase over and attract newcomers. (Again, some of the "fad" comments I used earlier, as the brain training games came out of nowhere in more of an "explosion" fashion. And they're eyecatching enough to attract people who couldn't consider a "GameBoy" of any sort otherwise. [Used in quotes, of course, because they're the kinds of folk who call the PSP a "GameBoy" as well. And probably even the PS2 a "Nintendo," since they basically haven't paid attention since the 80's. Hehe...] Certainly I've gained much attention--and probably a few converts--just by bringing Brain Age and BBA around with me after--yes--the Lite finally turned me over to a portable option. Hehe... Getting an Opera browser coming just around the corner didn't hurt either.)

...

*looks up*

Ok, that was a bit long, and probably a bit too rambling, but all I'm really saying here is there's no "hard and fast answer" to ANYTHING in this respect. Just lots that's worthy of investigation. ^_^

...and this doesn't even get into how it will affect the Wii or PS3 yet, either!

 

:big edit:

I just want to say that small polls (like the one that started this topic and the recent ones) are useless and cannot be used as arguments because they all contradict each other.

 

Remember of course that people who preorder at this stage are all fanatics, and there's probably even a decent amount of overlap between the ps3 and Wii. The consensus was that the initial shipments will all sell out pretty much regardless of price

As an example, I spent 450 EUR on getting a PSP and had it - in Europe through Lik-Sang - 5 days after launch. Yes, I was crazy, but in retrospect, considering the mileage I already got out of it, it was worth it! I had the PS2 two weeks after launch, though that was through luck - a friend of mine had scouted one in a shop in a lesser known area, and he couldn't afford it right then just after an expensive holiday, so he asked me if I wanted to buy it.

But the people who are going to shape the future of console market share are not quite the same, I think ...

 

In general, poll result is more an indication of buzz/opinion/PR effort.

Poll result can be manipulated relatively easily (e.g., do a short segment on national TV before the poll, conduct the poll on biased audience that are not representative of the general buying audience, limit exposure of the products before poll, ...)

Poll result can also be inaccurate because of insufficient information. It is also only a snapshot. And when people like a product, it does not necessarily mean they will buy it, or buy it "now" (They may postpone the purchase indefinitely while continue to have good feeling about the polled products).

For better results, the general practice is to have the products ready for the test subjects to touch and feel. Even so, I have seen products that did extremely well in polls and focus groups, but failed miserably in the market.

I remember PS3 was doing rather well in poll before its pricing is revealed. So the first poll may not be an indication of whether PS3 should be more innovative. It could be an indication of "People/families put off by high pricing" and/or "People are more curious about Wii at this point". e.g., If PS3's existing pricing include bundled/free games, game console and/or other accessories, then the poll result may change (again).

 

Did you miss this?

Those are actual preorders from Amazon in Japan, where at the moment, more people want PS3 than Wii.

 

Wii is still very high though, about a 60/40 split.

It's either, bad preorders for PS3, good preorders for Wii, or a little of both. What're the total numbers?

 

Are you sure of that?

 

Only as sure as Angelcurio's explanation!
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpost.php?p=793068&postcount=113

 

Actually, Jesus2006 posted that graph first, and he was the one who labeled it as Amazon Japan pre-orders.

He also has something like 6 posts to his credit, so you'll have to forgive somebody who doesn't read Japanese to take his word for the fact that the chart indicates actual pre orders, because I seriously doubt it.

Its most likely an interest poll, or a desirability poll, or some tool for Amazon-Japan to gauge their supply/sales expectations.

 

This says, to me, that people who tend to preorder, are buying PS3s over Wii. I would expect the hardcore gamers to be both ones who preorder and ones who would pay 500-600 for a games console. I dont think the actual values are important but generally speaking, the mainstream consumer isnt going to show up in this chart because historically they arent the rabid preorder-type (at least in north america).

 

1) Angelcurio linked to sources - I don't know what nationality (s)he is or whether (s)he can read Japanese, but I know I can't and am dependant on other people to provide translations from other sites. It might not be preorders though. Google makes it out to be subscription to releae information, I think.

2) What the hell has post count got to do with someone's ability to provide useful information?! Some of the most knowledgable people on this forum have the lowest post counts. Post count is an even more ridiculous way to guage a person's usefulness to a forum than opinion polls are to gauge which console will sell most next gen!

Regardless of whether it's pre-orders or interest, it's still as avalid a poll as any other on interest in PS3 and Wii.

 

OK, here's the deal:

These are the preorder notification requests that Amazon received from 11/07 to 12/07, the news will be updated on a weekly basis every Friday.

Source: My humble Japanese skills

 

Right, which isn't pre-orders. Joystiq is running the same chart and they are referring to it as a 'desirability' poll, so what this poll actually represents is unclear.

In single digits? Unlikely. I've found them far more likely to be trolls, spewing unreliable information.

If you can't identify both the difference and the importance of the difference in understanding what this poll (or any for that matter) actually represents, then we have nothing left to discuss.

 

Sorry I wasn't finished editing yet. It is the percentage of people registrating for preorder notification. No absolute numbers given.

 

??? How'd you get two days?