Japan Sales Thread *renamed

[Mythos]

It's this idea of 'trending' that's down-right preposterous!
You don't 'trend' the London Marathon 3 minutes into the race. You don't 'trend' the Premiership after the first two matches. You don't 'trend' Wii's sales over the last two months. Hell, they're getting half the sales now as a month ago. That's a trend of half the demand every month! By the end of the year they'll be lucky to sell Wii's in the thousand if that trend continues! Trends means looking for patterns, which needs a relevant amount of source material. eg. If I show you a pattern of black white black white squares in a row, you may 'trend' that the pattern will continue like that indefinitely, whereas it might be anything far more complex.

You're opinions on Sony's loss of market share, low sales, etc, may well be right...BUT...you can't use the first few months of sales as evidence of that. Those numbers don't fit into any logical argument as they're statistically incomplete, given that the current 'trend' can be changed by a whole host of options by Sony (and not just cutting the price, which some seem to think is all you can do to sell more of a product).

Golden!

 

[TheChefO]

It's this idea of 'trending' that's down-right preposterous!
You don't 'trend' the London Marathon 3 minutes into the race. You don't 'trend' the Premiership after the first two matches. You don't 'trend' Wii's sales over the last two months. Hell, they're getting half the sales now as a month ago. That's a trend of half the demand every month! By the end of the year they'll be lucky to sell Wii's in the thousand if that trend continues! Trends means looking for patterns, which needs a relevant amount of source material. eg. If I show you a pattern of black white black white squares in a row, you may 'trend' that the pattern will continue like that indefinitely, whereas it might be anything far more complex.

You're opinions on Sony's loss of market share, low sales, etc, may well be right...BUT...you can't use the first few months of sales as evidence of that. Those numbers don't fit into any logical argument as they're statistically incomplete, given that the current 'trend' can be changed by a whole host of options by Sony (and not just cutting the price, which some seem to think is all you can do to sell more of a product).

Like I said already, IT IS ONE FACTOR. When combined with the rest of the information we have on ps3 is what my opinion is based on.

I never said "hey ps3 is selling 20k a week in japan, that means they'll only sell 3.12million units by 2010 in Japan"

But you go ahead and believe what you want. I still have not heard an in depth explanation from anyone on how Sony will gain the lead this gen.

 

[nonamer]

But you go ahead and believe what you want. I still have not heard an in depth explanation from anyone on how Sony will gain the lead this gen.

That's so easy:
1) HDTV takes off, overtaking SDTVs for the first time in 2006 and takes over by 2010.
2) Wii fades away and gets canceled due to novelty factor wearing off and crappy graphics.
3) Games data sizes explode to 20GB by the end of the year, and expanding to 50+ GB by 2010 at which point DVD based games are entirely untenable to publishers. Games like FF13 and WKS could do it in the RPG space. GTA or GTA-like games could also do it. Xbox 360 finds it in serious trouble as most games become PS3 exclusives by technological necessity.

Done. PS3 wins, everywhere. And it won't even be close in this scenario.

And speaking of which, what do you think will happen? Explain to how Wii or Xbox 360 could actually win?

 

[crazygambit]

Since when is a console war compared with a world war???

Consoles are fixed. Their abilities do not change. Their manufacturing costs change slowly. All you can do is change marketing, and honestly I don't think PS3 is lacking there, especially compared to XB360.

This gen with the advent of upgradable firmwares that's no longer true. Just look at the PSP. It's abilities have been increased tremendously from launch, now it even plays PS1 games. So it's perfectly possible for Sony to increase the value of PS3, by adding features the consumers want, later on.

I (and others) are basing the prediction on a few factors:


By 2010/2011 this gen is over and the next will start. They have 3-4 years to establish ps3 before attention is turned to WiiHD/XB720. All of these factors to me add up to 2nd/3rd place depending on how well Nintendo can keep the flame going.

Like you said anything is possible and Microsoft HQ might get hit with a meteor tonight. But based on the data we have currently, PS3 will not end up in 1st place.

This is something that has been bothering me lately. Who gets to decide when a gen is over and the next starts. Is this (last) gen really over? Does it matter for a PS2 that's still outselling next gen consoles on a regular basis. I have a hard tiime believing a $129 isn't almost pure profit. And when it keeps selling at $99 does it matter for Sony if the gen is considered "over". Aren't they still making money with it? So where do you get off saying that by 2010/2011 the price of the PS3 won't matter because the gen will be "over"? Who cares if the XBOX 720 is already in stores if Sony is still milking their last gen product?

Also what about the Wii? What if the Wii has a super short cycle and say after only 3 or 4 years Nintendo releases the next Wii (which is in the realm of possibility)? Would the Wii be a failure if it doesn't reach say a 100 million even though it made money for Nintendo every year? Who would "win" next gen if the next Wii is launched in the middle of this one? How would you count that? I believe it's only important how a console sells and is profitable for the company regardless of what the competition is doing, but that's just me.

 

[thatdude90210]

This is something that has been bothering me lately. Who gets to decide when a gen is over and the next starts.

Duh? Sony does. Weren't you paying attention?

 

[TheChefO]

That's so easy:
1) HDTV takes off, overtaking SDTVs for the first time in 2006 and takes over by 2010.
2) Wii fades away and gets canceled due to novelty factor wearing off and crappy graphics.
3) Games data sizes explode to 20GB by the end of the year, and expanding to 50+ GB by 2010 at which point DVD based games are entirely untenable to publishers. Games like FF13 and WKS could do it in the RPG space. GTA or GTA-like games could also do it. Xbox 360 finds it in serious trouble as most games become PS3 exclusives by technological necessity.

Done. PS3 wins, everywhere. And it won't even be close in this scenario.

And speaking of which, what do you think will happen? Explain to how Wii or Xbox 360 could actually win?

1) That has what to do with ps3 gaining the lead?
2) Did GC get cancelled?
3) I didn't know that printing multiple dvd's was impossibly cost prohibitive.

edit - btw - why would developers let game sizes explode and prohibit themselves from selling on the largest install base this gen?

 

[thatdude90210]

That's so easy:
1) HDTV takes off, overtaking SDTVs for the first time in 2006 and takes over by 2010.
2) Wii fades away and gets canceled due to novelty factor wearing off and crappy graphics.

Yeah, right... don't bank on it. I have plasma HDTV and guess what, I love the Wii. I have barely touched my 360 since the Wii launch. And that's just with Wiisports, Zelda, and Rayman. Go to avsforum, a lot of people HDTVs and even some with projectors are just fine with Wii graphics.

 

[TheChefO]

This is something that has been bothering me lately. Who gets to decide when a gen is over and the next starts. Is this (last) gen really over? Does it matter for a PS2 that's still outselling next gen consoles on a regular basis. I have a hard tiime believing a $129 isn't almost pure profit. And when it keeps selling at $99 does it matter for Sony if the gen is considered "over". Aren't they still making money with it? So where do you get off saying that by 2010/2011 the price of the PS3 won't matter because the gen will be "over"? Who cares if the XBOX 720 is already in stores if Sony is still milking their last gen product?.

Because ps2 won be a fricken landslide! Tell you what, if ps3 sells 70million more than their closest competitor by 2010 then my argument is moot and "next gen starts when" Sony says so.

If ps3 is comparable in sales to gc/xbox1 then it won't matter if they still want to have the systems on the shelf and prolong the life of the system as they just won't sell.

 

[crazygambit]

Duh? Sony does. Weren't you paying attention?

Fair enough.

 

[crazygambit]

Because ps2 won be a fricken landslide! Tell you what, if ps3 sells 70million more than their closest competitor by 2010 then my argument is moot and "next gen starts when" Sony says so.

If ps3 is comparable in sales to gc/xbox1 then it won't matter if they still want to have the systems on the shelf and prolong the life of the system.

Why won't it matter? MS killed this Xbox because it was simply too expensive to produce due to some bad deals, etc. Nintendo killed the Gamecube because it just wasn't selling, and when EA doesn't target you with their multipltform releases you know your console is dead. But why can't a PS3 that's selling slowly, but steady in 2010 continue to make money for Sony, even if the next gen has already started. Even if it did manage to only sell around 20 million units in it's lifetime (which I find pretty unlikely), there may not be a reason to kill it like MS or Nintendo did with their previous consoles.

 

[TheChefO]

Why won't it matter? MS killed this Xbox because it was simply too expensive to produce due to some bad deals, etc. Nintendo killed the Gamecube because it just wasn't selling, and when EA doesn't target you with their multipltform releases you know your console is dead. But why can't a PS3 that's selling slowly, but steady in 2010 continue to make money for Sony, even if the next gen has already started. Even if it did manage to only sell around 20 million units in it's lifetime (which I find pretty unlikely), there may not be a reason to kill it like MS or Nintendo did with their previous consoles.

The point is the only reason ps2 is still selling right now is because it was the clear leader last gen. ps2 games are/were still being made because of it's huge userbase. People are still buying it because it is cheap and has a huge back catelog of great cheap games.

With this being the case, why wouldn't a (cheap) gamer in 2010 not buy a <$150 xb360core or a <$100 Wii?

 

[TheChefO]

You're opinions on Sony's loss of market share, low sales, etc, may well be right...BUT...you can't use the first few months of sales as evidence of that. Those numbers don't fit into any logical argument as they're statistically incomplete, given that the current 'trend' can be changed by a whole host of options by Sony (and not just cutting the price, which some seem to think is all you can do to sell more of a product).

PS2 sales
2000_____6.40m___$300
2001____18.50m___$300
2002____24.40m___$200
2003____19.87m___$180
2004____11.93m___$150
2005____19.98m___$130

101million


xbox 360 (ps2 75% sales clip)
2005____01.5m___$300
2006____08.5m___$300
2007____18.0m___$200
2008____15.0m___$180
2009____09.0m___$150
2010____15.0m___$130

67million


xbox 360 (ps2 50% sales clip)
2005____01.5m___$300
2006____08.5m___$300
2007____12.0m___$200
2008____10.0m___$180
2009____06.0m___$150
2010____10.0m___$130

48million


PS3 (ps2 75% sales clip)
2005________________
2006____02.0m___$500
2007____08.0m___$400
2008____14.0m___$300
2009____18.0m___$200
2010____15.0m___$180

57million


PS3 (ps2 50% sales clip)
2005________________
2006____02.0m___$500
2007____06.0m___$400
2008____09.0m___$300
2009____12.0m___$200
2010____10.0m___$180

39million

These numbers are obviously very loose but they do give an idea for what it would take for specific sales targets to be achieved. Price and units sold in this projection are obviously tied and based on a percentage of ps2 numbers last gen.

 

[crazygambit]

The point is the only reason ps2 is still selling right now is because it was the clear leader last gen. ps2 games are/were still being made because of it's huge userbase. People are still buying it because it is cheap and has a huge back catelog of great cheap games.

With this being the case, why wouldn't a (cheap) gamer in 2010 not buy a <$150 xb360core or a <$100 Wii?

That exactly my point, thank you. Now you're contradicting yourself. Your argument was that the PS3's price on 2010/2011 is irrelevant because the gen is over, but if people are still buying all 3 consoles in 2010 is the gen really "over"? Btw I never said the others consoles couldn't still be selling by then, so don't put words in my mouth.

By 2010/2011 this gen is over and the next will start. They have 3-4 years to establish ps3 before attention is turned to WiiHD/XB720. All of these factors to me add up to 2nd/3rd place depending on how well Nintendo can keep the flame going.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Nintendo can still finish third and the PS3 can still finish first.

I agree... Even today I still feel that at the end of this generation the total units sold will be PS3 first X360 second and Wii third... I did felt stronger about that six months ago though, but I still believe that is the way things are going to be at the end. Profits are a whole different ball game though...

I just don't believe Wii has 5-6 years in it, not at a level of success like it's having today at least. PS3 will start to do make an impact next year and I also believe X360 will continue to do quite well, how could it not! Look at the games that are coming up...

Well in anycase this gen will be very interesting to follow how it will unfold. I feel it's very hard to predict the outcome at the moment. My quess can easily be totally wrong, but that's how I feel today.

 

[TheChefO]

That exactly my point, thank you. Now you're contradicting yourself. Your argument was that the PS3's price on 2010/2011 is irrelevant because the gen is over, but if people are still buying all 3 consoles in 2010 is the gen really "over"? Btw I never said the others consoles couldn't still be selling by then, so don't put words in my mouth.

No, I'm not.

Point is it's small potatoes compared to ps2 now. In 2010 there will not be an equivilant "ps2" system (wildly outselling the competition). Therefore this gen (xb360/ps3/wii) will die quicker than ps2 gen when the new systems become available (2010-2011).

 

[Todd33]

I personally don't think the point is that X360 has more games on the list than PS3, like you said It's no wonder that Gears outsold older PS3 games. I think the point is that PS3 still should have some presence on that list, we don't need to bring the X360 into that equation at all. MS in Japan has been almost nonexistant, but Sony hasn't. They should be on that list, period. The fact that it's currently impossible due to potential games not being released is not all forgiving explanation, it actually makes PS3 look worse.

They should have a steady stream of average to good games coming to their home market, so we could see the PS3 on those lists.

So take the 360 out, you mean the PS3 games, with an install base of what 1million tops, should compete with NDS, PS2 games? Take the NDS out of the top 30 and I'm sure you would see more PS3 games, a $600 console with $60 games vs a $100 handheld is kind of apples and oranges.

We'll see how long GoW stays on the list, it was the first week, what PS3 game released this same week? None.

 

[crazygambit]

No, I'm not.

Point is it's small potatoes compared to ps2 now. In 2010 there will not be an equivilant "ps2" system (wildly outselling the competition). Therefore this gen (xb360/ps3/wii) will die quicker than ps2 gen when the new systems become available (2010-2011).

I really can't fathom how you can know that. But if all 3 combined are selling more than ps2 today does that also mean their dead? Why does there need to be a system wildly outselling the competition for the gen to remain alive? In fact I think this gen might be even longer, with diminishing returns and all in respect to graphics. If people today seem to think PS2 and Wii graphics are adecuate I have no doubt they'll think the same about 360/PS3 in 2010/11. Like I said maybe the Wii will have a shorter cycle or they'll come up with Wii HD with full backwards compatibility, I don't know. The point is, the systems won't die until they become unprofitable and that may very well be well after 2010/11.

 

[TheChefO]

I really can't fathom how you can know that. But if all 3 combined are selling more than ps2 today does that also mean their dead? Why does there need to be a system wildly outselling the competition for the gen to remain alive? In fact I think this gen might be even longer, with diminishing returns and all in respect to graphics. If people today seem to think PS2 and Wii graphics are adecuate I have no doubt they'll think the same about 360/PS3 in 2010/11. Like I said maybe the Wii will have a shorter cycle or they'll come up with Wii HD with full backwards compatibility, I don't know. The point is, the systems won't die until they become unprofitable and that may very well be well after 2010/11.

Impact of Next Gen on US software sales (million units):
Dec 1999 top 83 software titles (units) 14.4_ps1g_01.1_ps2g
Dec 2000 top 83 software titles (units) 10.7_ps1g_01.8_ps2g
Dec 2001 top 83 software titles (units) 04.4_ps1g_11.9_ps2g
Dec 2002 top 83 software titles (units) 00.8_ps1g_16.9_ps2g
Dec 2003 top 83 software titles (units) 00.0_ps1g_19.4_ps2g
Dec 2004 top 83 software titles (units) 00.0_ps1g_20.9_ps2g
Dec 2005 top 83 software titles (units) 00.0_ps1g_13.2_ps2g_00.8 ps3g
Dec 2006 top 83 software titles (units) 00.0_ps1g_09.2_ps2g_05.2 ps3g

I'd say its pretty conclusive that next gen is effectively killing ps2 gen. Of the 9.2 million units sold this past December, 7.4million were on ps2.

Looking at even more historic data it looks like next gen is killing the previous gen even faster this go round.

ps1 gen sold 10.7m when ps2 launched which sold 1.8 that year
ps2 gen sold 09.2m when ps3 launched which sold 5.2 last year

http://www.vgcharts.org/usamonthly.php?date=38322&console=

 

[quest55720]

So take the 360 out, you mean the PS3 games, with an install base of what 1million tops, should compete with NDS, PS2 games? Take the NDS out of the top 30 and I'm sure you would see more PS3 games, a $600 console with $60 games vs a $100 handheld is kind of apples and oranges.

We'll see how long GoW stays on the list, it was the first week, what PS3 game released this same week? None.

The Wii seems to have no problems putting games on that list and it has a small user base. PS3 games are not selling and the system is not doing much better. This is so turning in the DS vs PSP it is almost exact same thing right now. The Wii is supply shorted and sells a lot of games like the NDS the PS3 is demand shorted and does not sell many games like the PSP. Sony should of learned from the PSP when you put other features in the box you risk people not buying games but using those extra features.

MS has to be estatic right now thier biggest weakness right now is really a non issue since the PS3 is not doing well in japan either. It is clear that if a company wants to sell traditional next gen games it needs to be in the west.

Sony should be worried there have been very few consoles I can think of that over came a slow start and recover. If the PS3 is anything less than number 1 the system by the end of 2008 IMO is a failure that can be blamed on arrogance. I am not sure if anything can be done to salvage japan right now since gamers there have thumbed thier noses up at traditional games. NA can still be turned by sony eating a lot of money and reducing the price to 360 levels.

 

[Todd33]

The Wii seems to have no problems putting games on that list and it has a small user base. PS3 games are not selling and the system is not doing much better. This is so turning in the DS vs PSP it is almost exact same thing right now. The Wii is supply shorted and sells a lot of games like the NDS the PS3 is demand shorted and does not sell many games like the PSP. Sony should of learned from the PSP when you put other features in the box you risk people not buying games but using those extra features.

MS has to be estatic right now thier biggest weakness right now is really a non issue since the PS3 is not doing well in japan either. It is clear that if a company wants to sell traditional next gen games it needs to be in the west.

Sony should be worried there have been very few consoles I can think of that over came a slow start and recover. If the PS3 is anything less than number 1 the system by the end of 2008 IMO is a failure that can be blamed on arrogance. I am not sure if anything can be done to salvage japan right now since gamers there have thumbed thier noses up at traditional games. NA can still be turned by sony eating a lot of money and reducing the price to 360 levels.

That a lot of opinion, which we need less of in threads like this. Wii has sold like 2x as much as the PS3 and the games are cheaper. Maybe we should wait and see a bit on games sales when some games are released in Feb/March. I myself only own one PS3 game, does that make the PS3 a failure? Well, I only owned one 360 game until March 2006 when Graw and Oblivion came out I suspect many people are like myself. I am waiting for games like Motorstorm, Lair, etc. I have no interest in buy lackluster launch titles for any system.