Japan Sales Thread *renamed

[DuckThor Evil]

So take the 360 out, you mean the PS3 games, with an install base of what 1million tops, should compete with NDS, PS2 games?

You don't have to sell all that much to make it into top 30. Top 30 is not the same thing as top 10 e.g.

We'll see how long GoW stays on the list, it was the first week, what PS3 game released this same week? None.

I didn't say anything about GoW or 360, we don't need to talk about 360 when PS3 in Japan is the topic, it's irrevelant. I know that the main reason for no PS3 games on that list is because there hasn't been any games released, but like I said in one of my posts, that is not an all forgiving explanation, because it's a BAD thing.

I'd like to point out that I'm only talking about the current situation. Bad launch or even bad first year is not that big of a deal imo. Sony is having a dry season right now, just like X360 had a year ago with limited number of new good releases, it just looks worse now because of the competition, and actually it IS worse because of the competition.

 

[bRoNx]

PS3 written off after only 3 months? Honestly, some of you guys sound worse than those gaming ANALysts! 3 months? Like Shifty's mentality: Would you be willing to predict the outcome of an NFL season based on the first 3 rounds?

Question: Does anyone believe that the PS3 can OVERTAKE the 360's install base, or do you think the 360 lead is too much now?

Personally, I believe they can, but not like the runaway success that the PS2 was - based on BR, brand loyalty, PAL territories launching will provide a sales boost (where the other two already exist), existing franchises with a devoted fan following, more than just gaming (should generate extra sales through the Linux community, home brew community, aspiring dev's looking to create software, and many others who would've otherwise), and if done well, EyeToy2 could make for some Wii like gaming, and maybe even appeal to their existing market. Many other reasons, just can't think.

But like someone said, anything can happen. Don't write off SONY yet - I mean, it's ONLY been 3 months!

 

[Corwin_B]

Frankly, I don't see many people "writing off" the PS3 after 3 months. What I see is that pretty much everyone thought that PS3 would be supply-limited for quite some time after launch, even at the current price point, and that, even if it was very arrogant to say so, the Sony Europe rep was basically correct about "selling the first five millions without games".

Now that this isn't happening (and that the 360 had an excellent holiday season + some (small) boost in Japan and that the Wii hype sees no sign of slowing down), we see :
- many people saying that is bad news for Sony, that the marketshare at the end of this gen will definitely look different than the last, and that the course correction to get PS3 to leadership may imply earlier price cuts that Sony would like, and drastic actions marketing and developer-wise, of which we haven't seen much.
- Sony fans go in PSP mode and say "it's all good according to the plan, nobody expected the PS3 to sell well without games, wait until VF5 comes out"
- a couple of fanb0ys of other brands spell that as "PS3 will never take of and sell 10 millions unit at most because it will be $600 forever"

All in one, a pretty average day in the wonderful world of console forums.

 

[Paul_G]

Question: Does anyone believe that the PS3 can OVERTAKE the 360's install base, or do you think the 360 lead is too much now?

I don't think they can. I sort of answered this in the sales predictions thread, which i shall paste here

Demand is still great, but the price is holding it back. I don't buy that Sony won't cut the cost sooner rather than later, I think they know as well as we do (Or at least those who choose to believe it) that PS3 isn't selling as well as anticipated and I think that the same will happen after the Euro launch. That said, I think any price drop will come too late. I personally buy into the theory that the first to a certain point begins a snowball effect that is hard to stop, and, powerful as the PlayStation brand is, i don't think it's so powerful as to stop MS building an unassailable lead. I think that sales of the PS3 will be good, but a lack of truly outstanding 1st party software in 2007 will hurt it and make catching the 360 impossible.

I simply think if you look at the numbers, PS3 will most likely be more expensive than 360 for most of its life, and it's generally been the case that around $150-$200, more people tend to buy it. I therefore think the Playstation brand will slow the 360 pulling away, but it will continue to pull away. Gamers are a fickle bunch, and I think for most of them, price is a primary factor. As long as it has some decent games, they won't care about the name. There are only a few people out there willing to buy on name alone, and even they are price sensitive I believe, which would explain the slower than expected sales in Japan and the US (for those that believe it)

So yeah, I don't think PS3 will catch 360, or Wii, but it won't be like 3rd is a bad thing, this will be a close race, and I think the PS3 will have a stronger life after it gets down to <$200, even outselling it's rivals a lot after 2010, but it won't close the 12-15m unit gap before their replacements arrive

 

[bRoNx]

I don't think they can. I sort of answered this in the sales predictions thread, which i shall paste here



I simply think if you look at the numbers, PS3 will most likely be more expensive than 360 for most of its life, and it's generally been the case that around $150-$200, more people tend to buy it. I therefore think the Playstation brand will slow the 360 pulling away, but it will continue to pull away. Gamers are a fickle bunch, and I think for most of them, price is a primary factor. As long as it has some decent games, they won't care about the name. There are only a few people out there willing to buy on name alone, and even they are price sensitive I believe, which would explain the slower than expected sales in Japan and the US (for those that believe it)

So yeah, I don't think PS3 will catch 360, or Wii, but it won't be like 3rd is a bad thing, this will be a close race, and I think the PS3 will have a stronger life after it gets down to <$200, even outselling it's rivals a lot after 2010, but it won't close the 12-15m unit gap before their replacements arrive

Thanx for the reply - fair points.

If I understood you correctly, it seems that your opinion is based heavily on the fact that price will be the limiting factor for PS3 sales. If so, I absolutely agree with you. I believe there's more people out there who *want* a PS3, but the asking price is a little too much. I also think that SONY exec's are very aware of this situation, and it would be foolish to think that those guys don't have a gameplan for the PS3 post launch - when the hardcore gamers have purchased their systems.

Perhaps we'll see this gameplan after the rest of the world has had its launch (March 23rd). I mean, even marketing is lacking from SONY. Like David Jaffe said in a 1up interview, SONY have not done a good enough job of communicating/convincing the gaming public of why they should part with their hard earned $600 for a PS3. I hope they get this underway ASAP, because their PR division just seems to go from bad to worse ATM! I know somewhere there's a strategy, I'm just wondering how bad things (or people's perception of it) have to get before they put it into action.

Can they afford a pricedrop before the end of 2007? Will demand change after the rest-of-world launch come March 23rd? Will MotorStorm, VF5, Heavenly Sword (fingers crossed it's sooner rather than later) and even Resistance (for the Euro gamers especially) bring a positive change for SONY? Can't say for sure, but I wish SONY would at least start talking to us!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I hope you are not implicitly comparing the Wii to the EyeToy (which is an add-on).

Of course not. I'm using it as an example of where the intial sales figures aren't in any way indicative of the long-term sales for a (gaming) product.

Like I said already, IT IS ONE FACTOR.

Well, it's the only factor I was talking about, so I don't know what you're arguing about?

I never said "hey ps3 is selling 20k a week in japan, that means they'll only sell 3.12million units by 2010 in Japan"

Thread title = Media Create SW & HW#s Jan 15-21
Thread topic = How well is hardware currently selling
Ranger's comment = "how many people honestly ever though Sony would be in this position, almost fully fallen, this generation?"
London Boy = It's only 3 months already
Me = I concur
You = Ah, yes, but it's unlikely a comeback will happen

We were all talking about the sales of PS3, and people drawing conclusions from that. I could only assume from your response, you were too. As you also said you were seeing how PS3 was 'trending' from this data, I was under the impression that you were looking at 3 months of sales data and drawing trends from it (what else does trending mean?). If you took a thread about hardware and software sales and turned that into a 'Sony can't come back to dominate because of lots of non-hardware sales factors' srgument, then you dropped the topic. There's been plenty of those threads elsewhere, including your Poll on positions. The topic on this thread was about sales figures and what they show, which is what everyone else was talking about.

But you go ahead and believe what you want. I still have not heard an in depth explanation from anyone on how Sony will gain the lead this gen.

Um...did you miss the bits I wrote about how you could well be right about that? No-one's arguing that Sony are likely to lead this gen. Again, the topic is sales figures and what info they show, and our argument has been that these figures, relevant to the topic at hand, aren't a measure of system performance in the long term. The topic of how Sony can, and whether they will, turn things around certainly wasn't what LB or myself were talking about when we responded to Ranger.

Again, my point here is only one of proper logical method. Anyone (which is what I should have used instead of the word 'you' BTW, as that's the context 'you' was used, although you were certanly using the term 'trending') who looks at 3 months of sales and concludes that Sony are down and out, is seeing trends where there are none. All the other questions of Sony's position long term have never been touched by me (in this thread, about sales figures and not price-drops, remarketting, software lineups, long-term acceptance of Wii, etc.), except to point out that there are factors that can turn the sales figures around, hence these figures can't be seen as a trend.

 

[Corwin_B]

There is one thing that we are able to draw from current sales data, though, and that is the PS brand is not strong enough to overcome the current price tag in the lack of compelling software. The lack of compelling software is expected during a launch period, of course, but many people (myself included) thought that even without a lot of software and at the current price point, Sony would have no problem selling at least a couple of millions in each territory on brand alone.

If things continue this way (note that I don't say they will), then yes, Sony may be in trouble establishing leadership for this generation.

 

[aselto]

Weall know PS3 lost its steam after Christmas, but how is 360 doing worldwide right now? It somehow manages to sell over a thousand units weekly, but I feel that predicting PS3's fate without actual sales data elsewhere for all consoles is pointless. January NPD should be very very interesting.:smile:

 

[Paul_G]

Thanx for the reply - fair points.

If I understood you correctly, it seems that your opinion is based heavily on the fact that price will be the limiting factor for PS3 sales. If so, I absolutely agree with you. I believe there's more people out there who *want* a PS3, but the asking price is a little too much. I also think that SONY exec's are very aware of this situation, and it would be foolish to think that those guys don't have a gameplan for the PS3 post launch - when the hardcore gamers have purchased their systems.

Perhaps we'll see this gameplan after the rest of the world has had its launch (March 23rd). I mean, even marketing is lacking from SONY. Like David Jaffe said in a 1up interview, SONY have not done a good enough job of communicating/convincing the gaming public of why they should part with their hard earned $600 for a PS3. I hope they get this underway ASAP, because their PR division just seems to go from bad to worse ATM! I know somewhere there's a strategy, I'm just wondering how bad things (or people's perception of it) have to get before they put it into action.

Can they afford a pricedrop before the end of 2007? Will demand change after the rest-of-world launch come March 23rd? Will MotorStorm, VF5, Heavenly Sword (fingers crossed it's sooner rather than later) and even Resistance (for the Euro gamers especially) bring a positive change for SONY? Can't say for sure, but I wish SONY would at least start talking to us!

You did understand me correctly, I think that Sony were expecting it to a degree, it would be pretty stupid not to, but i think even they were taken by surprise by just how soon it became a factor, as evidenced by David Reeves' comments regarding the first 5 million selling regardless, obviously this is not the case.

As far as a game plan is concerned, I don't think any amount of good PR will convince some people that the PS3 is good value for them. The PS3 relies heavily on consumers seeing the value of a blu-ray drive and all the other stuff it does, but not everyone wants that. The only thing that will get these people to buy a console is for it to be the right price, and that tends to vary from person to person, but i do think that whatever price a person says is their limit, Wii and 360 will get there first, at least until we're talking $100 or so, and by then we're talking 2011 or so.

I think some better games will help, and i think if they can drop the price, they will, but like you say their PR sucks right now and they're giving many gamers very little reason to choose them over a Wii or a 360

 

[TheChefO]

Of course not. I'm using it as an example of where the intial sales figures aren't in any way indicative of the long-term sales for a (gaming) product.

Well, it's the only factor I was talking about, so I don't know what you're arguing about?


Thread title = Media Create SW & HW#s Jan 15-21
Thread topic = How well is hardware currently selling
Ranger's comment = "how many people honestly ever though Sony would be in this position, almost fully fallen, this generation?"
London Boy = It's only 3 months already
Me = I concur
You = Ah, yes, but it's unlikely a comeback will happen

We were all talking about the sales of PS3, and people drawing conclusions from that. I could only assume from your response, you were too. As you also said you were seeing how PS3 was 'trending' from this data, I was under the impression that you were looking at 3 months of sales data and drawing trends from it (what else does trending mean?). If you took a thread about hardware and software sales and turned that into a 'Sony can't come back to dominate because of lots of non-hardware sales factors' srgument, then you dropped the topic. There's been plenty of those threads elsewhere, including your Poll on positions. The topic on this thread was about sales figures and what they show, which is what everyone else was talking about.


Um...did you miss the bits I wrote about how you could well be right about that? No-one's arguing that Sony are likely to lead this gen. Again, the topic is sales figures and what info they show, and our argument has been that these figures, relevant to the topic at hand, aren't a measure of system performance in the long term. The topic of how Sony can, and whether they will, turn things around certainly wasn't what LB or myself were talking about when we responded to Ranger.

Again, my point here is only one of proper logical method. Anyone (which is what I should have used instead of the word 'you' BTW, as that's the context 'you' was used, although you were certanly using the term 'trending') who looks at 3 months of sales and concludes that Sony are down and out, is seeing trends where there are none. All the other questions of Sony's position long term have never been touched by me (in this thread, about sales figures and not price-drops, remarketting, software lineups, long-term acceptance of Wii, etc.), except to point out that there are factors that can turn the sales figures around, hence these figures can't be seen as a trend.

Shifty - great post, well thought out. Question for you:

What is the purpose of a thread discussing the latest sales figures in Japan?

We have a few other threads discussing ps3 sales and in one or two of those Japanese sales figures were linked or copied into those threads. The purpose of bringing this type of information into a discussion forum is to discuss them: What do they mean, How will these numbers be affected by potential future events, How do they compare to eachother, Are they what people expected.

Regarding trending: You are 100% correct. Using only three months worth of sales data is very limited and one would be a fool to conclude that this data could effectively be used to measure sales for the next year, much less multiple years. However, when combined with other data we can form a much clearer picture regarding the current and future status of these platforms:
What games are available
What games are soon to be released
What potential actions can be taken to reduce the cost of production
When can we reasonably expect these actions to take place

All of these items affect sales. Funny me that I should bring them up in a sales thread.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Regarding trending: You are 100% correct. Using only three months worth of sales data is very limited and one would be a fool to conclude that this data could effectively be used to measure sales for the next year, much less multiple years. However, when combined with other data we can form a much clearer picture regarding the current and future status of these platforms:
What games are available
What games are soon to be released
What potential actions can be taken to reduce the cost of production
When can we reasonably expect these actions to take place

All of these items affect sales. Funny me that I should bring them up in a sales thread.

If you had brought them up to discuss how these relatively short-terms factors would affect the relatively short-term sales of PS3, I'd have no beef. However, the conclusion raised (not necessarily by yourself) was 'going by current evidence - short term sales, short term game releases, short term expected price drops - we conclude in the long run that Sony are jappered.' All too often threads turn into 'what'll happen in 5 years time' when the initial content of the thread doesn't warrant that.

Now as to what these threads are for, by my estimation they're more for reporting current events and discussing the why's and wherefore's. I personally wouldn't have said that a thread about weekly sales is intended or expected to turn into a discussion about the long-term future of a platform considering it's software lineup, BOM and potential price-drops, etc., especially when there's already threads started for that purpose specifically. Ultimately you can take any thread and turn it into a 'how does this affect the long-term situation of the platforms?' discussion, which makes the idea of individual threads a bit redundant. All news affects that, and can be discussed in that respect, but that doesn't mean all news should be discussed in that fashion. Take one 'Future of the consoles' thread and take the news from the individual announcement threads into that one. Leave the Media Create and NPD threads for the reporting and people voicing whether they think these numbers accurate, long-term, or whatever. Take the MC and NPD numbers into the long-term-future thread and say there 'Now that we have this info here...how does that affect the bigger picture?'

Of course I'm no mod and it's up to them to decide what's on topic or not. In this thread, if the discussion were to turn that way, I'd not get involved. As it was, I was here discussing the merits of the sales and what they might point to. Or more exactly, showing what they don't point to! And my posts were always about the dodgyness of extrapolating figures without any intention to look at the 'bigger picture' which I don't think belongs here.

 

[TheChefO]

If you had brought them up to discuss how these relatively short-terms factors would affect the relatively short-term sales of PS3, I'd have no beef. However, the conclusion raised (not necessarily by yourself) was 'going by current evidence - short term sales, short term game releases, short term expected price drops - we conclude in the long run that Sony are jappered.' All too often threads turn into 'what'll happen in 5 years time' when the initial content of the thread doesn't warrant that.

Now as to what these threads are for, by my estimation they're more for reporting current events and discussing the why's and wherefore's. I personally wouldn't have said that a thread about weekly sales is intended or expected to turn into a discussion about the long-term future of a platform considering it's software lineup, BOM and potential price-drops, etc., especially when there's already threads started for that purpose specifically. Ultimately you can take any thread and turn it into a 'how does this affect the long-term situation of the platforms?' discussion, which makes the idea of individual threads a bit redundant. All news affects that, and can be discussed in that respect, but that doesn't mean all news should be discussed in that fashion. Take one 'Future of the consoles' thread and take the news from the individual announcement threads into that one. Leave the Media Create and NPD threads for the reporting and people voicing whether they think these numbers accurate, long-term, or whatever. Take the MC and NPD numbers into the long-term-future thread and say there 'Now that we have this info here...how does that affect the bigger picture?'

Of course I'm no mod and it's up to them to decide what's on topic or not. In this thread, if the discussion were to turn that way, I'd not get involved. As it was, I was here discussing the merits of the sales and what they might point to. Or more exactly, showing what they don't point to! And my posts were always about the dodgyness of extrapolating figures without any intention to look at the 'bigger picture' which I don't think belongs here.

Agreed - Perfect forum etiquite would dictate bringing this data into a future/predict thread. However discussing this information here in current and future context I don't believe is out of line.

edit - also in regards to short term data used to discuss short term future; Judging from historical data for console sales, how a console sells initially compared to it's competition gives you a pretty good idea for how it will end up doing.

 

[scooby_dooby]

There is one thing that we are able to draw from current sales data, though, and that is the PS brand is not strong enough to overcome the current price tag in the lack of compelling software. The lack of compelling software is expected during a launch period, of course, but many people (myself included) thought that even without a lot of software and at the current price point, Sony would have no problem selling at least a couple of millions in each territory on brand alone.

If things continue this way (note that I don't say they will), then yes, Sony may be in trouble establishing leadership for this generation.

Agreed, the only thing we can really glean form these numbers is that conventional wisdom was wrong, and Playstation does in fact need good games to sell, in Japan at least. It will not sell on name alone like many had predicted.

US may be a different story, Jan NPD will be interesting but I'm not expecting any surprises, PS3 should dominate with 500k+

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Agreed, the only thing we can really glean form these numbers is that conventional wisdom was wrong.

Yep. The idea that PS3 would sell the first 6 million no matter what seems to have burst. Whether that's because of a need for wanted titles, or the impact of competing products, I don't think anyone can say though. Are the Japanese customers waiting for the first FF or similar game to appear? Or have they all decided Wii or even DS are more interesting these days? Or, perish the thought, is PS3 just too expensive at it's current price, even if FF was out?

 

[crazygambit]

edit - also in regards to short term data used to discuss short term future; Judging from historical data for console sales, how a console sells initially compared to it's competition gives you a pretty good idea for how it will end up doing.

I disagree completely. Just because it may have worked in the past doesn't mean it's gonna work again. Apart from the fact that the ecosystem of every launch is very different (PS2 launched with no opposition, PS3 didn't) the fact that you think 3 months worth of data will help you predict sales 5 years from now show how little you know of statistics.

 

[TheChefO]

I disagree completely. Just because it may have worked in the past doesn't mean it's gonna work again. Apart from the fact that the ecosystem of every launch is very different (PS2 launched with no opposition, PS3 didn't) the fact that you think 3 months worth of data will help you predict sales 5 years from now show how little you know of statistics.

You're right - it doesn't guarantee anything but if a system has never started slow and ended up first then one would not expect it to now yes? I appreciate the attempt at an insult though.

...how a console sells initially compared to it's competition...

And by the way - The counter argument of "unique ecosystem" is very true. Problem for Sony is ps3 has a poor ecosystem right now to try and establish their platform. Much of this ecosystem was by design. Facts are fun

Just because it may have worked in the past doesn't mean it's gonna work again

ironic

 

[nonamer]

You're right - it doesn't guarantee anything but if a system has never started slow and ended up first then one would not expect it to now yes? I appreciate the attempt at an insult though.

Reminds me of the argument that no black console has every succeeded, and the PS2 is black.

 

[22psi]

Yep. The idea that PS3 would sell the first 6 million no matter what seems to have burst. Whether that's because of a need for wanted titles, or the impact of competing products, I don't think anyone can say though. Are the Japanese customers waiting for the first FF or similar game to appear? Or have they all decided Wii or even DS are more interesting these days? Or, perish the thought, is PS3 just too expensive at it's current price, even if FF was out?

I think in Japan, consumers have somewhat moved away from home consoles and the big thing are handhelds. It's just due to the 'always moving' about culture. Heck, even in America, whenever I go to Japantown or Chinatown, I see people while walking or while in small cafes playing on their DS lites and PSPs.

 

[thatdude90210]

Agreed, the only thing we can really glean form these numbers is that conventional wisdom was wrong, and Playstation does in fact need good games to sell, in Japan at least. It will not sell on name alone like many had predicted.

US may be a different story, Jan NPD will be interesting but I'm not expecting any surprises, PS3 should dominate with 500k+

What, you're expecting 500k+ PS3 for the USA in Jan? That's asking a lot when it couldn't do that during Xmas without a shortage. I would be surprised it hit 200k.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

US may be a different story, Jan NPD will be interesting but I'm not expecting any surprises, PS3 should dominate with 500k+

Why do you expect such a high number for PS3?