scooby_dooby
Legend
Pent up demand carrying over from Dec.
Japan Sales Thread *renamed
- Thread starter 22psi
- Start date
Pent up demand carrying over from Dec.
Mintmaster
Veteran
Some of you guys, especially nonamer, are really exaggerating our statements. We're not saying PS3 is a failure, nor do we know the exact details of how this gen is going to end up. However, there are some reasonable assumptions you can make about a console war.
One of them is this: In order for a console to have PS2 levels of success, it is necessary (but not sufficient) for it to be either the best selling console of its gen each month, or supply-limited to the point that it could be.
Now, there's an exception with the PS1 because Sony was new to the market and buyers were tentative and unconvinced, which is completely opposite to what we have now. Moreover, note that it's a one way statement. High initial sales do not guarantee PS2 levels of success, but they are needed to have a chance.
PS3 has failed this test. I don't see how it can possibly dominate like PS2. Can it still claim the number one spot? I don't think so, but it is possible. Nonetheless, a PS1/PS2 repeat is completely out of the question.
One of them is this: In order for a console to have PS2 levels of success, it is necessary (but not sufficient) for it to be either the best selling console of its gen each month, or supply-limited to the point that it could be.
Now, there's an exception with the PS1 because Sony was new to the market and buyers were tentative and unconvinced, which is completely opposite to what we have now. Moreover, note that it's a one way statement. High initial sales do not guarantee PS2 levels of success, but they are needed to have a chance.
PS3 has failed this test. I don't see how it can possibly dominate like PS2. Can it still claim the number one spot? I don't think so, but it is possible. Nonetheless, a PS1/PS2 repeat is completely out of the question.
Mintmaster
Veteran
That's the stupidest analogy I've ever heard. Color has almost nothing to do with sales. Launch demand has everything to do with sales.Reminds me of the argument that no black console has every succeeded, and the PS2 is black.
That's exactly my problem I have with you and a few others. You absolutely cannot write that option off. You have no logical basis to support that, that 2 months of sales will determine the next 5 to 6 years of sales since we have seen nothing of the eventual game library or the ultimate value of the hardware after a few years. There is no difference between this and saying that the color of the system is a major determination of success.
Mintmaster
Veteran
You don't get it. We're not determining 5 or 6 years of sales from 2 months of data. What we're doing is writing off one of the many possibilities that remain: A dominant PS2-like performance.
PS3 can still come out #1, and even if not it may still come #2 and beat XB360. But irrespective of that, I guarantee you we will not see a PS2 repeat.
Too many things have happened:
A) XB360 sold well, especially during holiday 06 in the face of stiff competition.
B) Wii has fantastic demand
C) PS3 is doing horribly in Japan compared to PS2 in 2000
D) All this is in spite of better availability than Sony's ever had before
This is not just a couple coincidences or a hunch. It is a very logical assertion. The probability of dominance is reduced with just one of these factors, but will all four holding true it's next to impossible.
Before this gen started - heck even up to mid December last year - I was completely convinced that Sony would have a big lead by the end of this generation. Not quite PS2-esque, but still dominant. Now with these additional facts surfacing, it'll take a Sony miracle for that to happen.
PS3 can still come out #1, and even if not it may still come #2 and beat XB360. But irrespective of that, I guarantee you we will not see a PS2 repeat.
Too many things have happened:
A) XB360 sold well, especially during holiday 06 in the face of stiff competition.
B) Wii has fantastic demand
C) PS3 is doing horribly in Japan compared to PS2 in 2000
D) All this is in spite of better availability than Sony's ever had before
This is not just a couple coincidences or a hunch. It is a very logical assertion. The probability of dominance is reduced with just one of these factors, but will all four holding true it's next to impossible.
Before this gen started - heck even up to mid December last year - I was completely convinced that Sony would have a big lead by the end of this generation. Not quite PS2-esque, but still dominant. Now with these additional facts surfacing, it'll take a Sony miracle for that to happen.
I guarantee that you can be wrong. There's nothing stopping a PS1/PS2 repeat. Any other claim is simply delusional.
No it hasn't. 12 million by June 2007 of sales is on track for 30-40 million at the end of the generation. Good for second place likely.
Could flop in a year or two. Actually Gamecube outsold it in the US in the first 2 months.
No games right now and a high price. Nintendo has a lot hype right now in Japan too. Xbox 360 is still dead in Japan, so combined with an potential eventual failure in Wii, PS3 can still dominate in Japan.
Irrelevant.
It's nothing but a "hunch." A very poorly founded one at that. There are numerous scenarios where Xbox 360 and Wii can do poorly from here on out.
There are numerous scenarios where ps3 could come out on top or wii or 360. However the argument isn't one of possibility, but probability.
It is improbable that ps3 will repeat ps2 success.
Mintmaster
Veteran
You guarantee that I can be wrong? WTF kind of statement is that? If I'm wrong, I won't ever make any more predictions. I'd even make a bet with 1 to 10 odds that PS3 will not dominate like PS2, because I think the true odds are even lower. Nothing in life is guaranteed, but this is beyond reasonable doubt now.Note that 'sold' is past tense, genius. It did sell well last year, and did sell well during the holidays. And even if your prediction of 40M is right, I don't see why PS3 would beat it significantly, much less clobber it and Wii like PS2 did to XB and GC.
And you're just dreaming if you think these scenarios are likely while also coinciding with higher demand for the PS3. It would be some sort of miracle unprecedented in video game history.
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Did Master Sony tell you this one?
All of your comments were simply painting yourself as a hypocrite. You're the delusional one, there is nothing guaranteeing anything this generation. Nothing.
I like the math you use for your odds.
It's trending virtually the exact same as the Xbox1 in the US. If the Xbox had last longer than 3-4 years, it would have also reached the 30-40 million mark. The N64 did 35 million as well. A respectable second, but still second and by a lot. Wii is underselling the GC in its first 2 months in the US. I don't expect it to last long enough to matter given that it's entirely dependent on the Wii-mote to sustain itself.
You've basically described the DS and PS1, which had slow starts. It's no more "miracle" that a black console won the console wars for the first time.
If you can read at a grade school level, you'd realize that someone else is making the absurd claims. I'm merely pointing out that they are wrong.
Absurd? Does predicting Sony will not win this generation qualify as absurd these days? If console history has taught us anything at some point the giants fall. Atari, Sega, Nintendo, and now maybe Sony. Time will tell, why you have such issues with predictions is beyond me.
I really wished you read clearly before you got into this. This is what Mint said:
"PS3 can still come out #1, and even if not it may still come #2 and beat XB360. But irrespective of that, I guarantee you we will not see a PS2 repeat."
This is what I said:
"I guarantee that you can be wrong. There's nothing stopping a PS1/PS2 repeat. Any other claim is simply delusional."
Now, who made the crazy claim? The one who guaranteed something or the one who merely pointed out that you can't guarantee that thing?
What pent up demand though? Seriously if any console had pent up demand left after December it certainly doesn't seem to be PS3.
nonamer said:
Wii is underselling GC in its first two months in the US while simultaneously selling almost twice what PS3 has sold in the US in the same timeframe though!
Anyway if Wii has sold less then GC in the US in its first 2 months (if your not just pulling that out of thin air) then the reason should be pretty obvious. Wii is clearly massively supply limited because its spread worldwide at launch unlike GC.
Your last sentence is pure fan-boy silliness BTW. Its like saying "I don't expect PS3 to last long enough to matter given that its entirely dependent on some flashy graphics to sustain itself"...
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Here lies the problem - if you truly believe that market positions last forever and are uneffected by serious mistakes, then the entire argument is useless. We'll get back to you in one year...
How can you guarantee it? You can't that is an absurd claim that you can guarantee anything. His comment was a prediction. Your comment was a statement of fact, which is a baseless statement of fact because there is nothing to support your claim. The market can change and it probably will. There is no possible way you can guarantee that the PS3 will be a repeat of the PS2, you can predict, which is the exact same thing as he did.
I feel sorry for you, you seem to be delusional of your own extreme bias.
"I guarantee that you can be wrong."
Talking with some of you is like bash my head against the wall. That goes for anyone else who thinks they are making a point when in fact they are simply not reading at a grade school level.
What potential failure? You talk as if Wii failing is almost a given, yet there's really no reason to expect such a failure, its just wishful thinking on your part.
crazygambit
Regular
Saying that you think the PS3 may be a complete failure this generation is perfectly valid since it's in the realm of possibility. Using 3 months of sales data to predict PS3's failure or it's inability to repeat PS2 level performance is absurd. At most you can try to predict sales for the next few months, anything more is ridiculous.
The way I read his statement he's not guaranteeing anything besides the fact that you can't guarantee anything. It didn't seem that complicated to me I don't know why you're having so much trouble understanding.
I guess the other two comments afterwards are just not there. Such as the PS3 being a repeat of the PS1 or PS2 (which its not). There was more than one claim in your comment.