Japan Sales Thread *renamed

[Carl B]

...yet retailers are still buying them in truckloads from MS...

But they're not though; remember that MS has said they are cutting down on shipments in the first half of the year, due partly to ample supplies in the channel. Europe we can't account for (I don't think), but sold to consumer numbers would be as easy as adding NPD year-to-date (and increasing by the 20% norm), to Media Create year-to-date. Then whatever we estimate the rest of the world to be... but it won't be 10.4 million.

(Where are the numbers for this week in Japan?)

 

[dobwal]

How can anyone take VGcharts seriously when they still have the 360 selling 8.5 million while MS has confirmed 10.4 million shipped to retailers over 1 month ago?

VgChart's worldwide numbers are off but I doubt you will find any tracking company who can reliably track worldwide numbers for any console in a way that doesn't include regurgitating MS, Sony and Nintendo official ship numbers. How many times have you ever heard of any numbers coming out of central and south america. Japan only represents a fraction of land mass that makes up Asia. I doubt anyone will ever see a post of how many PS3 were sold in Nigeria.

VgCharts US and Japan numbers are bascially just numbers from well known and well respected tracking companies.

 

[Teasy]

Media Create Jan 22 - 28

Hardware:-

Software:-

01. (PS2, Capcom) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - 227261 / 227261
02. (NDS, Square-Enix) Dragon Quest Monsters Joker - 103706 / 1026700
03. (NDS, Sega) Sangokushi Taisen DS - 77229 / 77229
04. (NDS, Nintendo) Picross DS - 71794 / 71794
05. (NDS, Nintendo) Hotel Dusk: Room 215 - 59379 / 59379
06. (WII, Nintendo) Wii Sports - 58886 / 910422
07. (NDS, Nintendo) Wario: The Seven - 47350 / 138599
08. (WII, Nintendo) Wii Play - 43612 / 808425
09. (PS2, Hackberry) Pachinko Winter Sonata - 41411 / 41411
10. (NDS, Nintendo) More Brain Age - 34028 / 3902307

11. (NDS, Nintendo) New Super Mario Brothers
12. (NDS, Nintendo) Common Knowledge Training
13. (NDS, Nintendo) Animal Crossing Wild World
14. (PS2, Konami) Prince of Tennis: Doki-Doki Survival
15. (360, Bandai-Namco) The Idolm@ster
16. (NDS, Nintendo) Mario Kart DS
17. (NDS, Pokemon) Pokemon Diamond
18. (NDS, Nintendo) English Training
19. (NDS, Nintendo) Brain Training
20. (PS2, Sega) Shining Force EXA
21. (NDS, Spike) IQ Supply
22. (NDS, Pokemon) Pokemon Pearl
23. (NDS, IE Institute) Kanji Brain Test 2M
24. (PSP, Konami) Metal Gear Solid Portable Ops
25. (PS2, Bandai-Namco) .hack//G.U. Vol. 3
26. (NDS, Nintendo) 1000 Recipes
27. (WII, Nintendo) Wario Ware Smooth Moves
28. (PSP, Capcom) Monster Hunter Portable
29. (PS3, From Software) Enchanted Arms
30. (PS2, Flight-Plan) Dragon Shadow Spell
31. (PS2, Marvelous) Happiness! Deluxe (1st ed.)
32. (NDS, Rocket Co.) Kanji Test
33. (NDS, Sega) Puyo-Puyo!
34. (WII, Nintendo) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
35. (NDS, Sega) Love & Berry
36. (NDS, Bandai-Namco) Heisei Kyouiku Inkai DS
37. (NDS, Nintendo) Kirby Squeek Squad
38. (PS2, Sega) Yakuza
39. (NDS, MTO) Tea Dog's Room DS 2
40. (WII, Nintendo) Excite Truck
41. (NDS, Nintendo) Jump Ultimate Stars
42. (PSP, Ertain) Lost Regnum
43. (NDS, Shougaku-kan) DS Yama Method Math Drills
44. (NDS, Atlus) Etrian Odyssey
45. (NDS, Capcom) Biohazard: Deadly Silence
46. (NDS, Nintendo) Tetris DS
47. (NDS, Nintendo) Cooking Navi
48. (PS2, Prototype) Tomoyo After: It's a Wonderful Life CS Ed.
49. (PS2, Aquaplus) Routes PE
50. (PS2, THQ) WWE 2007 SmackDown vs. Raw

NDS: 29
PS2: 11
Wii: 5
PSP: 3
360: 1
PS3: 1

 

[TheChefO]

Hardware:-

Software:-
...

Thanks Teasy :smile: ...Where are the H/W numbers?

edit nm - [blocked]

 

[damisa]

I think it took the PS2 several years to drop below 20k in japan (outside of maybe shortages near launch).

 

[inefficient]

I'm happy Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas is doing so well. I might pick up a copy out of support. I've never played the PS2 version only the PC version. It might be fun to play through it a second time with Japanese voice acting.

 

[Acert93]

15. (360, Bandai-Namco) The Idolm@ster

To repeat the obvious: MS doesn't have a prayer in Japan... unless they release Idol@aster starring Dark, Kameo, and, uhhh Pinatas?

 

[thatdude90210]

It seems that the Wii is getting the kind of press coverage you can't buy. Here's a youtube video of Conan O'Brien playing Serena Williams in Wii-Tennis on his show last night.

A few weeks ago, Stephen Cobert played Wii-boxing on the Cobert Report. This is better than advertising.

 

[Diamond.G]

When do the NPD #'s get released? And will there be a separate thread for them?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Europe we can't account for (I don't think), but sold to consumer numbers would be as easy as adding NPD year-to-date (and increasing by the 20% norm), to Media Create year-to-date. Then whatever we estimate the rest of the world to be... but it won't be 10.4 million.

(Where are the numbers for this week in Japan?)

Well it all depends on the ratio of WW sales to NA. According to MS's quarterly reports as of Sep:

Sep 30 2006 - 1M shipped - 300k NA, 400k Europe, 300k Elsewhere (6M LTD shipped)
June 30 2006 - 1.8M shipped - 1.5M NA, 200k Europe, 100k Elswhere (5M LTD shipped)
March 31 2006 - 1.7M shipped - 900k NA, 600k Europe, 200k elsewhere (3.3M LTD shipped)
Dec 31 2005 - 1.5M shipped, 900k NA, 500k Europe, 100k Elsewhere (1.5M LTD shipped)

We can see that there were 3.6ml shipped to NA, and 2.4mill to the rest of the world, which gives a ratio of 3:2 for NA:WW. You can safely say that over the span of 11months, 360's have sold 66% as many units worldwide compared to North America.

Then take a look at NPD #'s, add the 20% norm as you say:
- 4.5 (US) + .4 (CAD) + 20% = 5.88mil sold in North America.

Add in the WW numbers at 66%:
9.76mill sold through as of Dec 31.

Not 10.4 but right on the cusp...How's that for fuzzy math!!

 

[Rolf N]

B<...> NPD year-to-date (and increasing by the 20% norm) <...>

Why that? Because that's what Laa-Yosh told us to do last summer?
Okay, we all know about Wal-mart. Is there anything in support of the notion that NPD does not make their own estimations for the parts of the chain they have no collected data for? Anywhere?
They don't make all of their methods public to non-paying internet hand-wavers, but so far I've found this:

Total market size and market share for all channels, including Wal-Mart

Source

So can we please suspend this "Add 20% to NPD" business until we find an actual reason to do it?

 

[dobwal]

Why that? Because that's what Laa-Yosh told us to do last summer?
Okay, we all know about Wal-mart. Is there anything in support of the notion that NPD does not make their own estimations for the parts of the chain they have no collected data for? Anywhere?
They don't make all of their methods public to non-paying internet hand-wavers, but so far I've found this:Source

So can we please suspend this "Add 20% to NPD" business until we find an actual reason to do it?

NPD don't push their numbers as definitive sales numbers. NPD push their numbers to their clients as trending data. The numbers are only relevant when you look at the data as a whole, like comparing sales of product A vs. product B.

NPD takes a sample than extrapolate to include a larger part of the market. NPD probably makes it a habit to under report their numbers because if they tried to be 100% inclusive and over reported sales numbers their clients would know and trust would be lost. NPD reports showing you that you shipped 12,000 and telling you it captured 75% to 85% of the market is different than saying you shipped 15,000 and claiming 100%. All the while you know you actually shipped 13,500.

 

[Rolf N]

NPD don't push their numbers as definitive sales numbers. NPD push their numbers to their clients as trending data. The numbers are only relevant when you look at the data as a whole, like comparing sales of product A vs. product B.

"Total market size" in the quote given above disagrees with you.

NPD takes a sample than extrapolate to include a larger part of the market. NPD probably makes it a habit to under report their numbers because if they tried to be 100% inclusive and over reported sales numbers their clients would know and trust would be lost. NPD reports showing you that you shipped 12,000 and telling you it captured 75% to 85% of the market is different than saying you shipped 15,000 and claiming 100%. All the while you know you actually shipped 13,500.

That's your theory, right?
There's no difference in liabilty between under-reporting and over-reporting. At the most basic level both can mislead investors, and moving money away from a healthy business may mean just as much of a loss as moving money into an unhealthy business. For both kinds of error you'll want to include a Disclaimer Of Everything, Especially Reliability into business agreements.

Hence I really can't say I agree with your logic. My rationale is that NPD's customers would want the numbers to be as accurate as NPD can make them. That probably necessitates estimates for sales outlets that cannot be tracked.

 

[scooby_dooby]

So can we please suspend this "Add 20% to NPD" business until we find an actual reason to do it?

The actual reason is that historically NPD has under reported around 20%, this is even apparent in the Wii and PS3 numbers.

 

[dobwal]

"Total market size" in the quote given above disagrees with you.

"What that...psst". "I know more about NPD then NPD knows about itself". "I will call NPD tonight and I guarantee that statment won't be there in the morning.
.
.
.
.(that what happen in the reality inside my head).
.
.
.(in the real world reality)....I concede.

That's your theory, right?
There's no difference in liabilty between under-reporting and over-reporting. At the most basic level both can mislead investors, and moving money away from a healthy business may mean just as much of a loss as moving money into an unhealthy business. For both kinds of error you'll want to include a Disclaimer Of Everything, Especially Reliability into business agreements.

Hence I really can't say I agree with your logic. My rationale is that NPD's customers would want the numbers to be as accurate as NPD can make them. That probably necessitates estimates for sales outlets that cannot be tracked.

Under-reporting and over-reporting are not the same thing it all depends on context. A public company under-reporting their profit won't feel the same heat than one that over-reports its profits. There are a whole different set of consequences for over than under for that circumstance. Under-reporting in a NPD instances can lead to assumption that NPD numbers aren't all inclusive. Undesirable but perfectly understandable. However, over-reporting means NPD are using extrapolations that are creating sales and can be viewed as a more grevious issue.

 

[borowki]

I think it took the PS2 several years to drop below 20k in japan (outside of maybe shortages near launch).

To be fair to Sony, it should be noted that January is traditionally the slowest month for retail (belt-tightening after the holiday season, cold weather, etc.). Given high price of the PS3, the drop in sales is neither surprising or unexpected. The US numbers will be ugly too. If sales continue to slip going into spring, then it's time to panic.

 

[Carl B]

The US numbers will be ugly too. If sales continue to slip going into spring, then it's time to panic.

Well, I don't think the Jan PS3 numbers in the US will be that ugly; I'm thinking in the 300k range.

Do we know when we get our next NPD update?

 

[TheChefO]

Well, I don't think the Jan PS3 numbers in the US will be that ugly; I'm thinking in the 300k range.

Do we know when we get our next NPD update?

Only 300k? I'm thinking more like 500k. As much as I saw ps3's sitting on the shelves weeks ago, I don't come across that situation near as often now.

I think Japan is almost a lost cause for Sony without a new FF. They are already selling ps3 for the same price as ps2 when it launched there (~$400) and the populous is almost rejecting the console.

It will be interesting to see what the numbers look like if for nothing more than to see how long wii/ds continue to dominate.

DS is still MIA in the states fyi.

 

[Carl B]

Only 300k? I'm thinking more like 500k. As much as I saw ps3's sitting on the shelves weeks ago, I don't come across that situation near as often now.

Well, I'm going to stick with the conservative estimate of 300k. I think 300k would be a great number, but honestly, this isn't saying I don't think 500k is possible either. Whatever the case, on shelves or not, it's been selling well in the US.

I think Japan is almost a lost cause for Sony without a new FF. They are already selling ps3 for the same price as ps2 when it launched there (~$400) and the populous is almost rejecting the console.

What's the point in questioning though, since obviously a new FF, MGS, etc... are coming? Obviously the fortunes for PS3 in Japan from here on out look to improve, rather than worsen. The games will be the catalyst. And this is not to take away from Wii of course; I assume continued strength for it. I just don't view things as zero-sum. For its part, Nintendo's vision of gaming has already been validated, but all these companies cater to different niches. Nintendo may be targeting the largest group of all right now, but it doesn't target them all.

 

[TheChefO]

Well, I'm going to stick with the conservative estimate of 300k. I think 300k would be a great number, but honestly, this isn't saying I don't think 500k is possible either. Whatever the case, on shelves or not, it's been selling well in the US.



What's the point in questioning though, since obviously a new FF, MGS, etc... are coming? Obviously the fortunes for PS3 in Japan from here on out look to improve, rather than worsen. The games will be the catalyst. And this is not to take away from Wii of course; I assume continued strength for it. I just don't view things as zero-sum. For its part, Nintendo's vision of gaming has already been validated, but all these companies cater to different niches. Nintendo may be targeting the largest group of all right now, but it doesn't target them all.

What I meant by "lost cause" is if I were in Sony's shoes I would not attempt to drop the price further and in fact I would even consider raising the price for now.

Systems aren't moving there yet and this after a price drop before the system launched. The software library situation doesn't look like it will change anytime soon so what can Sony do? I'd lessen my losses for the region until I had the right cards. (FF)

Heck at the minimum send the units to EU for their launch!