Laa-Yosh said:
By the way, why would it be better to replace scanline rendering with raytracing? So many people seems to be so interested in it, but I just don't see why?
All the really nice stuff like GI, area shadows, subsurface scattering etc. require bounced rays, multiple samples and so on which 1. take more time to calculate 2. mess up memory access. But these effects are usually performed in separate passes in offline rendering, and most of the geometry is processed with scanline algorithms - thus most renderers today are hybrid renderers. Exclusive raytracing is slow and old stuff...
I would expect that we will see more & more advanced scanline / scan conversion renderers that encorporate many of the things we want out of realtime RT, GI, etc. but it will take some time. on the PC side, 4-5 years from either ATI or Nvidia or someone else that is brave.
on the console side, probably 5-7 years, with the arrival of Xenon's successor and PlayStation4.
mind, you PC graphics in 5 years and console graphics in 5-7 years will still not be capable of everything we want in realtime graphics, it just might be the first step towards getting away from
only having polygons, textures and pixel shaders. real-time 3D graphics have not changed much, funamentallym, from the 80s and 90s (polygon + texture) We have seen the addition of realtime shaders in this decade, that is about it, other than ever-increasing speed/performance. This era were shaders is the only new thing will hopefully end by 2010-2012, if not sooner, and then we see a new era of 3D graphics with some of the currently impossible-to-do-in-realtime stuff, suddenly becoming possible.
even PS4 will not be able to do all that we want.... but since the conventional brute processing requirement for things like full-on true realtime raytracing in uber-complex games will NEVER be met within our lifetimes (going from EE to Cell, 35x at best, is a good lesson here), the industry needs to find unconventional ways of arriving at the type of graphics we want, without the need for sheer brute horsepower.
I feel optimistic about the 3D graphics industry, and that, given time, it will come up with some very interesting and impressive solutions that will at least bring some of the things that we all want, within a reasonable amount of time, 6 to 12 years, which seems like an eternity, but is better than waiting for brute force processing power to make it possible.
<----- me just rambling