If Microsoft fails this time around nobody will dare to enter the console market...

[Johnny Awesome]

Probably because that little black box of joy is still doing very well.. There's still a slew of upcoming AAA titles for the PS2 and the console will continue to get 1st and third party support right into 2007-2008..

So obviously the majority of PS2 owners are probably quite happy to sit tight enjoying there "graphics-isn't-the-be-all-and-end-all-of-gaming" on the console without feeling any significant urge to upgrade their hardware until the PS3 price drops and everybody's favourite PS franchises hit the next-gen box (DMC, GOW, MGS, FF etc..)

Except that everyone's favorite franchises in the US are Halo, GTA, and Madden. MS will have all of that and then some next year at the $299/$199 price point. That's going to be very compelling for consumers - harcore and casual alike. IMO Gears of War is going to be more successful in the US as a brand this generation than MGS will, let alone Halo.

 

[archangelmorph]

Except that everyone's favorite franchises in the US are Halo, GTA, and Madden. MS will have all of that and then some next year at the $299/$199 price point. That's going to be very compelling for consumers - harcore and casual alike. IMO Gears of War is going to be more successful in the US as a brand this generation than MGS will, let alone Halo.

Maybe in the US (of which the entire industry doesn't revolve around either..) but we're talking international selling power and as a franchise, MGS has the potential to sell much much better considering the premise that if even only half of the PS2 userbase migrates to Sony's next-gen offering, there would still be enough MGS fans in there to sell the game like crazy..

The biggest difference between sales of title like MGS and those like Halo & GOW is marketing and media hype..

Also consider that I was speaking in response to "why the current PS2 owner are not picking up an Xbox360 NOW.." not whether they will in the next twelve months.. It would be stupid to assume that MS will sit by and allow PS3's install base to fill with PS2 owners without at least tryng to entice them over to MS's camp..

Lastly I would agree that games like Halo and GOW appeal to a very select demographic but dont forget there is an incredible market for the more easternised games (a la FF, MGS, ZOE etc) among both the hardcore and the casual gaming demographic, which is the core reson why the PS2 has done so well..
The problem is I don't see many of these kind of games appearing on any of microsoft's consoles in the near future considering the lack of japanese support for the X360 and the lack of demand for them by the Xbox360's "xbox1-birthed" install base (they seem to care more about action titles & FPSs with lots of violence and gore, over more artistic gaming genres..)

And then there's the portware & multiplatform titles aswell..

 

[baten]

So for the vast majority, online is still irellevant? How does PS3+Linux+Browser come into play then?

You seriously considering Sony beeing in a better position because of linux and a browser whereas MS XBOX Live service has next to nothing to offer judging by your comparison? What exactly do you mean by saying a "whole", whole like WWW whole, or youtube whole?

I guess you don't know what XBL has to offer.

I was speaking about online gaming - which is irrelevant for most console players - as for internet brwosing - almost everybody does that nowdays.

LIVE is a step ahead in online gaming, and is a more coherent experience, but there are less then 20% of console gamers interested in online gaming (I do not have the exact figure, but last year Saturn published someting like 12-13%).

Web browsing is a feature welcomed by more people than online gaming, and - of course MS could add that to LIVE, as well as Sony could add all the LIVE features to their PSN service as well and still keep it free.

As for Linux - I would not dismiss this that fast. It will be very important, as it will bring a lot of support from the PC enthusiast comunity.

 

[London Geezer]

Oh noes, i have a bad feeling about this thread...

 

[liolio]

Oh noes, i have a bad feeling about this thread...

lol, anayway there's nothing more to add (thank fearsome pirate ) this thread can be locked.

OK, I help RFOm is supposely12/15 hours and it's on default setting harder than GeoW!!! nobody complain...

GeowII will be so massively online that I except to frag some sista ...

 

[dlm]

Baten,

Where is your evidence that "the 360 has only sold to xbox owners"? You haven't presented a single shred of evidence to support this claim even though you've parroted it a dozen times throughout the course of the thread. It's anecdotal, but I know at least half a dozen people that never owned an xbox who are 360 owners, and I'm sure they're not the only ones.

Your numbers on Live are also way off. We don't have Gold numbers, but the attach ratio for Silver is over half. It at least shows that people are interested in the online functionality offered, even if it's not online play.

Finally, your assumption that price doesn't impact buying decision is ludicrous. The PS2 sold better than the XBox last gen for a lot more than brand recognition. The fact that it was comperably powerful (it was less powerful, but in the same order of magnitude), for the same price, and had a TON more games is an extremely compelling reason to buy a PS2 (it still is today). However, if you look at things now, 360 has that exact same set of advantages, but is significantly cheaper than PS3. The brand recognition isn't as strong, but is *is* strong. Calling that trivial is ignorant at best.

 

[dlm]

Lastly I would agree that games like Halo and GOW appeal to a very select demographic but dont forget there is an incredible market for the more easternised games (a la FF, MGS, ZOE etc) among both the hardcore and the casual gaming demographic, which is the core reson why the PS2 has done so well..
The problem is I don't see many of these kind of games appearing on any of microsoft's consoles in the near future considering the lack of japanese support for the X360 and the lack of demand for them by the Xbox360's "xbox1-birthed" install base (they seem to care more about action titles & FPSs with lots of violence and gore, over more artistic gaming genres..)

And then there's the portware & multiplatform titles aswell..

I think you're overestimating the market at least in this country for very easternized games. Yes, things like FF and MGS are extremely powerful franchises the world over. That said, neither those, no Halo, can compete in terms of franchise power with Mario or Zelda.

The notion of Halo not appealing to the casual market is completely wrong. It had a huge attach rate and is widely considered to be one of the more "casual friendly" games of last gen, and probably the most casual friendly shooter of all time.

Also, what are your metrics for saying that Japanese support for the 360 is so limited? I don't have numbers for what it looks like relative to the PS3 in Japan, but there are more JRPG's in the pipeline (and released, for that matter) for 360 than there are for PS3. There are at least a dozen games from various Japanese studios being hyped around the internets for 360, I'd hardly call that a lack of support.

These all sounds like arguments not based on facts, but based on stereotypes of the XBox which you are (rather wrongly) attempting to apply blindly to the 360.

 

[baten]

Baten,

Where is your evidence that "the 360 has only sold to xbox owners"? You haven't presented a single shred of evidence to support this claim even though you've parroted it a dozen times throughout the course of the thread. It's anecdotal, but I know at least half a dozen people that never owned an xbox who are 360 owners, and I'm sure they're not the only ones.

Your numbers on Live are also way off. We don't have Gold numbers, but the attach ratio for Silver is over half. It at least shows that people are interested in the online functionality offered, even if it's not online play.

Finally, your assumption that price doesn't impact buying decision is ludicrous. The PS2 sold better than the XBox last gen for a lot more than brand recognition. The fact that it was comperably powerful (it was less powerful, but in the same order of magnitude), for the same price, and had a TON more games is an extremely compelling reason to buy a PS2 (it still is today). However, if you look at things now, 360 has that exact same set of advantages, but is significantly cheaper than PS3. The brand recognition isn't as strong, but is *is* strong. Calling that trivial is ignorant at best.

I dont have a link, it's true, but I read some retailers reports some 3-4 months ago where they were were claiming that they were selling the 360 basically only to their xbox customers. Some of them might be guys that had both PS2 and xbox though. And yes, this might change with more first time console users getting interested. And yes, there might be some ps2 owners who got a 360 to check it out until PS3 arrive, but they will get their PS3 nontheless. But I have not yet came to the compelling reason that MS must give PS2 owners to switch camps - something like "You dont need a PS3 since we are offering this and that and you will be happier".

Regarding LIVE, I'm pretty sure you a right - the numbers of 360 with LIVE enabled is far more than 10-20%. But I was speacking for the whole console gaming community. The xbox1 had around 2 mil LIVE subscribers, and I'm pretty sure most of them moved into the 360 by now - and have LIVE Gold subscription. As more casuals move into the 360 we will see that percentage get lower. Even PS2 had something like 4 mil online players, but as I said, out of the (aprox) 140 mil last gen consoles (xbox1, PS2 and GC) sold to date, 6-7 mil is not that much. Even if online console gaming will double or triple over this generation, it's still not by far mainstream. Remember, I'm talking about online GAMING, not online offering. On this side, LIVE will probably remain the best for the next few years, since it's a more coherent offering and really brings together the 360 gaming community. And it's a strong community. MS has some years in advance and a lot of knowhow, and will be almost impossible to beat, even with a free offering.

Regarding the price - I'm not going to argue anymore. If one thinks (and MS too) that a lower price is going to matter, than that's fine. My years of experience in sales tells me otherwise. To put it different, if another player gets now on the market with a 150 USD console that is similar in offering to 360 and PS3 - what chance do you think it has of succeeding?

 

[archangelmorph]

I think you're overestimating the market at least in this country for very easternized games. Yes, things like FF and MGS are extremely powerful franchises the world over. That said, neither those, no Halo, can compete in terms of franchise power with Mario or Zelda.

Which again are not xbox-based title so I don't see where you are going with this? Oh and I kno the popularity of such PS-based franchises detailed, reign much higher over here in the UK.. Especially since europe is Sony's strongest market (however not the largest)..

The notion of Halo not appealing to the casual market is completely wrong. It had a huge attach rate and is widely considered to be one of the more "casual friendly" games of last gen, and probably the most casual friendly shooter of all time.

Did I imply or say that..? if so i retract that statement.. It's very true that Halo is very popular among non-xbox gamers and non-gamers also..

Also, what are your metrics for saying that Japanese support for the 360 is so limited? I don't have numbers for what it looks like relative to the PS3 in Japan, but there are more JRPG's in the pipeline (and released, for that matter) for 360 than there are for PS3. There are at least a dozen games from various Japanese studios being hyped around the internets for 360, I'd hardly call that a lack of support.

Considering the fact that the Xbox360 has been on the japanese market for nearly 12 months, also considering the fact that Xbox360 has only sold around 114,000 units in Japan (compared to PS2's 1.4 million over the same period) over the last 11 months (check IGN for the figures) ALSO considering the fact that the majority (if not all) JRPG developers have confirmed s/w support for the PS3 whilst were seeing a vast sparsity in Japanese developer uptake of the xbox 360 (probably due to the lackluster sales figures for the console) I would infer that I haven't made any "totally unreasonable estimation/deductions" yet.. *shrug*

These all sounds like arguments not based on facts, but based on stereotypes of the XBox which you are (rather wrongly) attempting to apply blindly to the 360.

This has nothing to do with the Xbox and everything to do with the market trends and the correlation of industry information regarding the success of all the consoles in all regions and how such informations can be used to deduce very logical conclusions regarding the successes/failures of the said consoles..

I hope that clears up any confusion regarding the basis of my oppinions/arguements..

 

[Legend]

there are more players jumping in the market than some people realize. I think the topic here is about potential competitors that can actually 'compete' in market share and brand recognition with the current players. but I see some efforts, especially in the handheld arena, that show up every now and then. the gaming handheld market say N-Gage, it's revision, Zodiac,and some others. I don't remember any recent console efforts than the Phantom enigma.

what I do hope is for these scattered efforts to be joined together. I think the handheld arena is a better candidate for us to see a new hit born than the console one. but I think we will see new consoles appear as well- only not as half as many.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I'll say it again: Price matters. So do a lot of other things, but price definitely matters. There are way more people that want an X360 than are willing to buy one for $399. The question that we don't know the answer to yet is: Are there more people that want a $599/$499 PS3 than a $399/$299 X360 in NA/EU (Japan is lost for MS IMO)? I don't think so, but only time will tell. When both consoles are in ready supply (probably not until May for PS3) it'll be interesting to see which is the better seller.

Btw, I don't believe that PS3 will be more than $100 more to produce than the X360 in the medium run, and probably only $50 more in the long run. That's when Sony will be able to get more aggressive with pricing relative to X360, but that won't be until 2009 at the earliest. By then MS will be looking towards the next-generation, but the PS3 will still be running strong. Especially if people are looking for a $199 Blu-Ray player to go with their HD set.

 

[quest55720]

I'll say it again: Price matters. So do a lot of other things, but price definitely matters. There are way more people that want an X360 than are willing to buy one for $399. The question that we don't know the answer to yet is: Are there more people that want a $599/$499 PS3 than a $399/$299 X360 in NA/EU (Japan is lost for MS IMO)? I don't think so, but only time will tell. When both consoles are in ready supply (probably not until May for PS3) it'll be interesting to see which is the better seller.

Btw, I don't believe that PS3 will be more than $100 more to produce than the X360 in the medium run, and probably only $50 more in the long run. That's when Sony will be able to get more aggressive with pricing relative to X360, but that won't be until 2009 at the earliest. By then MS will be looking towards the next-generation, but the PS3 will still be running strong. Especially if people are looking for a $199 Blu-Ray player to go with their HD set.

Well if stand alone blue ray players have not reached sub 200 dollars by 2009 then they are finished. I also think by the time sony has the production problems fixed it will be the 199/299 360 vs the 499/599 PS3. Also we can't discount Nintendo putting a ton of pressure on sony especially in japan. From my personal observasions right now it is the Wii not the PS3 or 360 that is the hot item.

If sony does not lose this time they are impossible to beat. They have made every mistake that could be made. MS and Nintendo could of not dreamed up a better senario than what is playing out. I can't wait to find out how a 499/599 dollar system sells after the holidays because a lot of people will be paying off holiday debt and have no money for such a big ticket item such as a 360 or PS3.

 

[JasonLD]

I don't think Price between 360 and PS3 will be more than 100 dollars ever during their lifetime, if MS choose to drop X360 price to $299, undoubtly Sony will follow...but I don't think MS will drop 360 price until late 2007 at the earliest.
Back to the topic...
MS will not fail, but I think they will never dominate console market like they did with windows..It seems Japanese market will always be their handicap. But one thing is for sure..MS will be in console market for really long time.

 

[baten]

Well if stand alone blue ray players have not reached sub 200 dollars by 2009 then they are finished. I also think by the time sony has the production problems fixed it will be the 199/299 360 vs the 499/599 PS3. Also we can't discount Nintendo putting a ton of pressure on sony especially in japan. From my personal observasions right now it is the Wii not the PS3 or 360 that is the hot item.

If sony does not lose this time they are impossible to beat. They have made every mistake that could be made. MS and Nintendo could of not dreamed up a better senario than what is playing out. I can't wait to find out how a 499/599 dollar system sells after the holidays because a lot of people will be paying off holiday debt and have no money for such a big ticket item such as a 360 or PS3.

Nintendo has positioned themselves in a different market with Wii. It's not intended to be a competitor to either 360 nor PS3. I really think it was the smartest thing they have done since very long time and it will pay of even more than they have expected. Indeed we already see the signs.

360 and PS3 will continue to sell well even after Xmas. Console gamers, and especially early adopters, are like junkies - it's an addiction - they will find the money to get their fix.

But I dont see that many mistakes in Sony's efforts, especially related to responding to MS offer. They only big mistake I can think is failing to put the product on the shelves at launch. It will not matter IF it's corrected soon, but it might be significant if this continues for 6-8 months or longer.

What do you mean "Sony loose"? What would define "loosing" for Sony? Since - realistically - I dont see MS selling more 360 than PS3 in the next 4-5 years.

On the other hand, to stay on topic - MS will not fail either this time around. By failing I mean selling less or around the same as last time. This will make it even harder for others to enter the console market.

 

[quest55720]

Nintendo has positioned themselves in a different market with Wii. It's not intended to be a competitor to either 360 nor PS3. I really think it was the smartest thing they have done since very long time and it will pay of even more than they have expected. Indeed we already see the signs.

360 and PS3 will continue to sell well even after Xmas. Console gamers, and especially early adopters, are like junkies - it's an addiction - they will find the money to get their fix.

But I dont see that many mistakes in Sony's efforts, especially related to responding to MS offer. They only big mistake I can think is failing to put the product on the shelves at launch. It will not matter IF it's corrected soon, but it might be significant if this continues for 6-8 months or longer.

What do you mean "Sony loose"? What would define "loosing" for Sony? Since - realistically - I dont see MS selling more 360 than PS3 in the next 4-5 years.

On the other hand, to stay on topic - MS will not fail either this time around. By failing I mean selling less or around the same as last time. This will make it even harder for others to enter the console market.

Well the Wii is in the market sony and MS want to get to eventually that is the casual gamer market. The Wii has beaten them to it with pricing and including a game. You are right the Wii will have some non traditional gamers also that would not buy a 360 or PS3.

How many of the hard core are out there anymore? The PS3 ebay auctions have bottomed out with the 20 gig unit not even worth selling on ebay anymore. To catch MS in north america by the end of 2007 sony will have to out sell them by around 300k units a month on average.

If MS and nintendo can't increase market share this time around then they never will. That is how winning and losing will be defined for me. If MS and Nintendo cut into the playstation dominance then they win. If sony continues complete domination like they have the last decade they win. If MS can not make a dent in sony this time around I can see them leaving the market. If MS with all its money and software experience can not touch sony no one else is going to put up the billion to try it.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

I don't think Price between 360 and PS3 will be more than 100 dollars ever during their lifetime, if MS choose to drop X360 price to $299, undoubtly Sony will follow..

Theoretically, in a price war, Ms would make Sony go bankrupt before they loose if they really want to.