So you are saying the PSX and PS2 popularity was gained not because of the fact that games were easily piratable? There is your "Price alone will never make that switch" statement, fading.
If Microsoft fails this time around nobody will dare to enter the console market...
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So you are saying the PSX and PS2 popularity was gained not because of the fact that games were easily piratable? There is your "Price alone will never make that switch" statement, fading.
archangelmorph
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In the end MS can;t "fail" as such because they already have an established brand with a loyal following that increases as we speak, with exceptional developer mindshare and a console which may very well *actually* turn the company a profit..
So in that respect MS have already "won".. Maybe not the "market leader" kind of way but they can still happily chug along for the next 10 yrs making buckets of cash off the Xbox brand..
With that in mind I hardly doubt the business could suddenly fall apart in next generation of consoles or the one after that.. Provided MS don't go "out of their way" to screw things up..
So in that respect MS have already "won".. Maybe not the "market leader" kind of way but they can still happily chug along for the next 10 yrs making buckets of cash off the Xbox brand..
With that in mind I hardly doubt the business could suddenly fall apart in next generation of consoles or the one after that.. Provided MS don't go "out of their way" to screw things up..
Absolutely, most of the people I know I've buy ps2 at mid life because the awesome easy piratable game library. Price is an issue.
I've seen an interesting tv show (8-fi for the hrench people here), it was interesting.
Differents actors were discussing how the market works ( bigN, Sony, Activision, Ms was missing...) (market will be a tought market for ms). Sony will want to try to position the ps3 as a hight end hi-fi device (no choice giv"en the price even if quality is herer...).
BigN want to try to broaden deomgraphic target, etc...
All of this is well known, what's interesting is the age of the average gamer (or market target that include parents who don't play game but still buy the system) : 29 years old.
So the consumer has some money, but is adult and is able to make reasonable choices.
they are the first target, when price goes down come into the play teen and in the end kid.
In the end of generation manufacturers expand the demographic target. Most of the Parents don't spend +300$ for a gift (console+games+etc...).
All of this is well known to, ok
My point is that in fact the market is far more versatil than it seems to me.
the point for me is that most part of the market targets are followers.
Early adopters, hardcore gamers draw the market to a product, if their number is hight enought, more causual gamers have the opportunity to play the system in some friend 's place.
After that they can share games (copy if possible) and buy the system most early adopters are happy with.
I feel the 360 is close to that in US, Ms in USA is almost already in the genesis situation, they're likely
to finish with ~ 50% market share in US.
JApan is dead end and at this point Europe is still lost.
Ms won't fail, a succes in US is an impressive achievement.
Some nice stats on this could actually be nice and interesting. Oh and i don´t understand you point, why didn´t they choose either the GC (cheaper) or the Xbox (overall experience). It looks like they didn´t really give a shit about those?
Some nice stats on this could actually be nice and interesting. Oh and i don´t understand you point, why didn´t they choose either the GC (cheaper) or the Xbox (overall experience). It looks like they didn´t really give a shit about those?
ps2 is clearly the leading plateform, kiddy knows that, daddy knows that, even mom knows that.
Ps2 has the best games library.
And brand social weight, people tend to choose the leader as part of an inconscious social representation mechanism. (especially non mature kiddies)
If this is easily achievable, yes, but the early adopters numbers has to be hight enought to draw more casual gamers into the party.
It already does. You know what does help them much more than pirated games? XBOX LIVE!
PS2 - Xbox are incomparable. They are last gen and had different lifecycles and launch dates. Playstation was established back in PSX times thank to piracy (major role), Xbox was established last gen when everyone was buying PS2 because of the name Playstation. And it turned out to be sucessfull. Even more than MS thought.
As I understand, it's very easy to mod the 360 (actually you chip the DVD drive), and the games, being on DVD, are easy to copy (ad least they should be).
And I wouldnt qualify the market in terms of "early adopters" that are educating "casuals". Most of 360 sales goes to former xbox1 owners, and they are past the point where they can reach more "casuals" than they already have in the last 3-4 years.
PS3 on the other hand, even if pirated (which seems to be rather difficult) - what will you copy the games to? Blank BluRayDisks are well over 20$, you better wait until the price of the game drops instead of copying it (of course, they will get cheaper in the future, but it might take a few years).
Developers, on the other hand, will be very happy with a PS3 that cannot be pirated.
I consisder seriously to buy a 360 but i don't consider piracy at this time because I want to enjoy live
That can to some extends help against piracy.I don't think early adopters "educated" the more casual gamers. But they give the opportunity to their neightbourhood to try the system.
Early adopters own often more than one system, if fact they take the risks, the more casual games (for me) seem to follow.
If their is enought happy early adopters, more casuals can experience the system and games exchange or piracy gain importance.
Brand fidelity is still important but for early adopters, from my own experience.
I was owning a ps1 and I really wanted the N64, I was an early adopter most of my friends were somewhat waiting (mainly because of the risk, is this system is vaible). At some point i've decide that the N64 wasn't worse it. A lot of people did, the casual (who were also loving nintendo) have choose the ps1 they knew people owning the ps1 => games exchange ( at this time cd burners was still expensive).
For the ps3/360 the deal is still not made, a lot early adopters (some who own the 360) still want to give the ps3 a ride. So we will see how sony keep interest in the early adopters market. Even for them the price is an issue (both systems are expensive).
I just feel that given the success of the 360 in US, and if the 360 continue to drag early adopters in 2007, with a interesting price drop the snowball effect can start in US (US only
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If I remember correctly, the head of Xbox division at that time was ablsolutely convinced that xbox1 will win since: "no company has won two generations in a row. Last time it was Sony, now it is our turn".
This time MS says - the first to reach 10 mil will win the generation. I remember that Dreamcast had reached 10 mil ahead of Sony, it did not help then that much though, what with having no money to spend at all.
And again, if PS2 and xbox1 are not comparable, then this is all the most appliable to 360 and PS3 - different launch date and lifecycles.
As it stands, LIVE indeed is the only key differentiator in MS favor. But as we speek, not more than 10-15% of console gamers worlwide are playing or planning to play online. Those who do and care about online will probably go for 360, but for the vast majority, online is still irellevant.
If we speek for the whole online offering - not playing games, but other stuff that you can do online - I think Sony is in a better position, having a browser and Linux.
I would consider MS as having done a very good job if they manage to gain 5-10% marketshare from Sony - worldwide. That will provide a good base for the third iteration of xbox - and everybody knows MS is succesfull third time around.
I consisder seriously to buy a 360 but i don't consider piracy at this time because I want to enjoy live
I don't think early adopters "educated" the more casual gamers. But they give the opportunity to their neightbourhood to try the system.
QUOTE]
I did a little googleing - there are 360 modchips that can do dualboot, so buy a 360 with confidence, you will be able to chip it and also get to LIVE!
Regarding the second - It's true, but I find it very curious that after 12 month the 360 is still sold mainly to former xbox owners. Why are PS2 owners so reluctant?
the dreamcast comparisson is flawn
MS is still feeding the early adopters, the attachement rate show that.
Your right for live, few causual gamers play online, even worse none are willing to pay for live.
Anyway if MS want to push live to the casual they will have drop the live price drasticly.
But your wrong on something, I think if quality is on par on both systems price will be the differenciator.
Some early adopters will feel it's not worse it => others will follow. (only in US, i feel ms mess up with europe while spending a stupid amount of money in japan...).
I really think linux is even more irrevelant to mass market than BR player ability at this time.
Most of my friends hate MS, none of them consider put linux on theirs computers.
Web browsing is still interesting but if prove successfull, nothing prevent ms from react and to add the same capability to the 360.
In US sony is facing right now serious trouble, this is not a definitif statement but sony has never encounter such a strong encounter on a market.
MS is still feeding the early adopters, the attachement rate show that.
Your right for live, few causual gamers play online, even worse none are willing to pay for live.
Anyway if MS want to push live to the casual they will have drop the live price drasticly.
But your wrong on something, I think if quality is on par on both systems price will be the differenciator.
Some early adopters will feel it's not worse it => others will follow. (only in US, i feel ms mess up with europe while spending a stupid amount of money in japan...).
I really think linux is even more irrevelant to mass market than BR player ability at this time.
Most of my friends hate MS, none of them consider put linux on theirs computers.
Web browsing is still interesting but if prove successfull, nothing prevent ms from react and to add the same capability to the 360.
In US sony is facing right now serious trouble, this is not a definitif statement but sony has never encounter such a strong encounter on a market.
I consisder seriously to buy a 360 but i don't consider piracy at this time because I want to enjoy live
I don't think early adopters "educated" the more casual gamers. But they give the opportunity to their neightbourhood to try the system.
I did a little googleing - there are 360 modchips that can do dualboot, so buy a 360 with confidence, you will be able to chip it and also get to LIVE!
Regarding the second - It's true, but I find it very curious that after 12 month the 360 is still sold mainly to former xbox owners. Why are PS2 owners so reluctant?
You're tought with me
I'm badly gassing, but I want to wait until first price drop AND first hardware revision.
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If I remember correctly, the head of Xbox division at that time was ablsolutely convinced that xbox1 will win since: "no company has won two generations in a row. Last time it was Sony, now it is our turn".
This time MS says - the first to reach 10 mil will win the generation. I remember that Dreamcast had reached 10 mil ahead of Sony, it did not help then that much though, what with having no money to spend at all.
And again, if PS2 and xbox1 are not comparable, then this is all the most appliable to 360 and PS3 - different launch date and lifecycles.
As it stands, LIVE indeed is the only key differentiator in MS favor. But as we speek, not more than 10-15% of console gamers worlwide are playing or planning to play online. Those who do and care about online will probably go for 360, but for the vast majority, online is still irellevant.
If we speek for the whole online offering - not playing games, but other stuff that you can do online - I think Sony is in a better position, having a browser and Linux.
I would consider MS as having done a very good job if they manage to gain 5-10% marketshare from Sony - worldwide. That will provide a good base for the third iteration of xbox - and everybody knows MS is succesfull third time around.
So for the vast majority, online is still irellevant? How does PS3+Linux+Browser come into play then?
You seriously considering Sony beeing in a better position because of linux and a browser whereas MS XBOX Live service has next to nothing to offer judging by your comparison? What exactly do you mean by saying a "whole", whole like WWW whole, or youtube whole?
I guess you don't know what XBL has to offer.
I'm going to ignore most of the "MS pwnz Sony! no w4y!! s0ny is t3h 1337!!111!" ranting that's been going on for the last 1.5 pages and respond directly to you, baten.
I think you're pretty much right on. I think the big missteps each console generation happened when a major player failed to understand what customers thought of as a benefit. Name brand is important, but it isn't everything, because this is entertainment, not necessity. People don't have to own game consoles, and if your new one isn't something people really want, they won't buy it. Atari 5200 and Saturn (and, I would argue, Gamecube) are great examples of failed to sequels to pretty successful consoles. On the other side, there's also missteps in relationships with other companies. The console manufacturer starts to take the software publishers and their revenue for granted, and makes unjustified assumptions about how they will treat its next machine.
I don't think there's room this gen for a new entry. The only companies that might be making big mistakes with their machines are Sony and Nintendo (Wii could still end up being a fad), and if they are, Microsoft's already there to take the crown. But MS could then screw up their next-gen machine, leaving the opportunity ripe for another player.
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archangelmorph
Veteran
Probably because that little black box of joy is still doing very well.. There's still a slew of upcoming AAA titles for the PS2 and the console will continue to get 1st and third party support right into 2007-2008..
So obviously the majority of PS2 owners are probably quite happy to sit tight enjoying there "graphics-isn't-the-be-all-and-end-all-of-gaming" on the console without feeling any significant urge to upgrade their hardware until the PS3 price drops and everybody's favourite PS franchises hit the next-gen box (DMC, GOW, MGS, FF etc..)
Johnny Awesome
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I think all of this "X360 only sells to the Xbox crowd" is a load of nonsense. I know several people that didn't buy an Xbox last time around that bought an X360 this time for Gears of War, or Oblivion, or a number of other reasons.
I think it's phenomenal that the X360 is selling better than Xbox primarily at the $399 pricepoint for a full year. Price matters. I have friends with six figure salaries that just won't pay $399 for a game system that only has a library of 160 games. Every consumer (parents included) have a price they will pay for X360 or PS3 and there are alot more people that will buy at $299 than $399, and a lot more still that will buy at $199 than $299. That's how it works IMO.
That's why it's so important to get to those price points first. The fact that MS is going to get their first and that coming out of this year they'll likely have about six times (6 million to 1 million) as many consoles out there as Sony does in the US, this will be significant. That's when you start affecting casual gamers decisions. A guy kinda wants a PS3, but all his buddies are playing Gears of War on X360 and it's cheaper and it's available and he can't wait etc...
Personally I think MS is only going to get stronger when the PS3 library is going to have a very hard time keeping up with MS exclusives throughout 2007. Then Sony will finally get some key titles like MGS4, FFXIII, etc... in 2008 and that will help them a lot.
I think it's phenomenal that the X360 is selling better than Xbox primarily at the $399 pricepoint for a full year. Price matters. I have friends with six figure salaries that just won't pay $399 for a game system that only has a library of 160 games. Every consumer (parents included) have a price they will pay for X360 or PS3 and there are alot more people that will buy at $299 than $399, and a lot more still that will buy at $199 than $299. That's how it works IMO.
That's why it's so important to get to those price points first. The fact that MS is going to get their first and that coming out of this year they'll likely have about six times (6 million to 1 million) as many consoles out there as Sony does in the US, this will be significant. That's when you start affecting casual gamers decisions. A guy kinda wants a PS3, but all his buddies are playing Gears of War on X360 and it's cheaper and it's available and he can't wait etc...
Personally I think MS is only going to get stronger when the PS3 library is going to have a very hard time keeping up with MS exclusives throughout 2007. Then Sony will finally get some key titles like MGS4, FFXIII, etc... in 2008 and that will help them a lot.
CEO I think live has a lot to offer.
Anyway if MS want causual gamers to bite in it (and pay for it), giving at least 6 months of free gold with each system is mandatory.
people have to experience it, they already pay ISP, most online pc gaming is free, it's a cultural change.
for people internet=free.
Anyway if MS want causual gamers to bite in it (and pay for it), giving at least 6 months of free gold with each system is mandatory.
people have to experience it, they already pay ISP, most online pc gaming is free, it's a cultural change.
for people internet=free.
I think you see all this as brand fidelity.
it's more simple, anybody with a budget around the 200$ would be crazy to not buy the ps2 at this point.
game library is awesome in quality, quantity, lot of cheap classics.
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